Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Oilers to sign Dermott, assign Philp, waive J. Brown, Caggiula, Lavoie, Rodrigue to minors.

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Well let's look at some of those stats and how the Oilers are looking right NOW... because this team is much different than the one that was playing in the playoffs and in the regular season last year... lots of new bodies now with chemistry to recreate and who knows how the team will gel together.

RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Skinner-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Podkolzin-Ryan-Perry

That's pretty much the set in stone forward group at this point... unless they call up Philp/Lavoie but it looks like cap accumulation means they are running with a skeleton crew for now at least.

Here's the stats for that forward group based on last season's stats... also keep in mind that this roster isn't young and everyone who was already aging... got another year older and poetentialy slower as well.

Percentile ranks for each line:
RNH:
68th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
82nd in shots
52nd in shooting %
72nd in goals
94th in offensive zone time

McDavid:
99th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
95th in shots
70th in shooting %
94th in goals
99th in offensive zone time

Hyman
75th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
98th in shots
97th in shooting %
99th in goals
98th in offensive zone time

Skinner
Below 50th in skating speed
71st in shot speed
88th in shots
64th in shooting %
83rd in goals
Below 50th in offensive zone time

Draisaitl
92nd in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
89th in shots
97th in shooting %
97th in goals
94th in offensive zone time

Arvidsson
84th in skating speed
52nd in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
54th in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
63rd in offensive zone time

Janmark
79th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
Below 50th in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
72nd in offensive zone time

Henrique
Below 50th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
62nd in shots
94th in shooting %
83rd in goals
Below 50th in offensive zone time

Brown
56th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
Below 50th in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
68th in offensive zone time

Podzkolzin
Below 50th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
Below 50th in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
90th in offensive zone time

Ryan
Below 50th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
51st in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
75th in offensive zone time

Perry
Below 50th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
86th in shooting %
56th in goals
55th in offensive zone time


Obviously some of those stats above are from when they were on previous teams... so it remains to be seen how the new lineup will look over a full season.

I'm not outright saying they will be worse offensively but I think there's a very good chance that happens because there's a whole lot of new line combinations and new faces and you know every single team in the NHL now knows the Oilers are contender #1 for the cup and opponents usually bring their A games when they play the Oilers... like it's a 7th game of the playoffs for an opponent and it's hard for the Oilers to consistently play up to that level of effort/intensity every game.

I'm obviously going to watch and see (like everyone else)... but my "hot take" is that the offense will be more of an issue than the D at least initially. I think Emberson/Stecher will fill the open spots reasonably effectively... whereas I think it will take time for the offense to gel.

In goal... well it's average at best with Skinner/Pickard but they basically will only be as good as the overall D in front of them... and if goal production does take a dip... that makes every flub and weak goal by the goalies look even worse. Run support cures a lot of defensive and goaltending issues so hopefully I'm wrong and the Oilers can score at the rates they were producing last season.

I'll gladly eat crow and admit my concerns were overblown if they are again top 5 in goal scoring. I just have a gut feeling that it's going to be a much harder grind this season to produce offense at the same rates they did last year.

This team is 40 goals above league average. They added two NHL proven top six players who are bonafide 20+ goal scorers and that's being very conservative about their actual results. This team is consistently among the elite PP results over years.

The defense and PK along with assumption that Skinner continues to build consistency in his game is easily the biggest question mark. The offense is more than enough to hide defensive deficiencies through the regular season likely until trade deadline when virtually everyone is projecting the long standing gap at 2RD to be filled with accrued cap space.

No one can predict injury. But this team's elite forward talent drives a 93 percentile offensive zone time engine while keeping the puck away from their net with a 90 percentile defensive zone play. The offense is driven by a generational super elite and a second one who is also within the top five players in the league. Lots of versatility to move players around with centre wing versatility and high hockey processors with a coach able to game plan effectively and showing solid at in game tactical changes.

Again, they can regress somewhat in offensive from their 90 percentile goal scoring last year (99 percentile two years ago and 79 percentile three years ago). They added two NHL proven top six wingers and have a full year of Henrique with 3C and wing versatility and two way play/production. The Oilers have figured out the offensive outscoring piece over years as proof points. They've fired two coaches over the past several years with the uneven defensive play and goaltending. Not the ability to fill the other team's nets.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

He's not any slower than Dermott, who he's both younger and more accomplished than--both offensively and defensively. That's the consideration that I'm making.

I don't really see the upside of Dermott. And beyond a decent showing in a handful of nothing preseason games, his career trajectory has been in a downward trend since he left Toronto.

The reason the Senators moved on from Brannstrom is because he was a arb eligible RFA coming off of a $2m AAV, a contract that he earned.

Brannstrom is a better hockey player than Travis Dermott. And I think the Oilers would be wise to consider that.

He's more pedigreed than Dermott. However Dermott is still unsigned (though I anticipate he takes his second two way deal or maybe a cheap one-way). The Oilers management group saw Dermott as a qualified PTO who they have put through a variety of pre-season marathon tests to gage his fit play and personality with their team. This includes a substantial known reality with the decision makers.

Brannstrom has entered the journeyman status that is coming increasingly common as teams assess player value against fixed salary and cap considerations for borderline players. Signed cheap by Colorado, he didn't even make it to game 1 regular season because of being beaten in competition and his value was to flip to help team LTIR considerations. Marginal better than Dermott ... maybe. In the eyes of the Oilers decision makers I'd be very surprised if they moved off the guy they know to help #7 minutes and LD/RD versatility.

 

[belair]

He's more pedigreed than Dermott. However Dermott is still unsigned (though I anticipate he takes his second two way deal or maybe a cheap one-way). The Oilers management group saw Dermott as a qualified PTO who they have put through a variety of pre-season marathon tests to gage his fit play and personality with their team. This includes a substantial known reality with the decision makers.

Brannstrom has entered the journeyman status that is coming increasingly common as teams assess player value against fixed salary and cap considerations for borderline players. Signed cheap by Colorado, he didn't even make it to game 1 regular season because of being beaten in competition and his value was to flip to help team LTIR considerations. Marginal better than Dermott ... maybe. In the eyes of the Oilers decision makers I'd be very surprised if they moved off the guy they know to help #7 minutes and LD/RD versatility.

I wouldn't say Brannstrom has entered journeyman status quite yet. He's coming off of consecutive ~20 point seasons as a positive contributing player on a non-playoff team. The next NHL franchise he suits up for will technically be his second.

He was a weird fit for Colorado to begin with. In Edmonton he adds an element we lack behind our top pair.

 

[Soundwave]

I don't honestly see the point of hyper analyzing the roster.

The fact is McDavid + Draisaitl don't really need a whole lot.

Since winning the draft lottery in 2015, really the Oilers management has added 3 total players that make any kind of difference to wins/losses .... Hyman (UFA signing), Ekholm (trade), and their one thing to show for like 10 draft classes .... Bouchard.

The rest are just interchangeable role pieces. Kane was impactful for like one season (2022) and then basically a just a role player too after that due to injury.

The fourth piece that's been added that made a big difference is Knoblaugh/Coffey finally bringing real defensive structure and adjustment making to the team's repertoire.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I wouldn't say Brannstrom has entered journeyman status quite yet. He's coming off of consecutive ~20 point seasons as a positive contributing player on a non-playoff team. The next NHL franchise he suits up for will technically be his second.

He was a weird fit for Colorado to begin with. In Edmonton he adds an element we lack behind our top pair.

He's on his third organization with losing a camp battle on his second. More value to Colorado to flip him with a higher benefit to alter their cap situation than have him in their lineup. All follows a non-playoff team making a hard financial cost benefit call on what was a premium part of their return on a significant franchise altering trade.

Pretty nondescript game, undersized with below average wheels and not an elite producer to overcome those deficiencies. Likely not enough to alter the Oilers trajectory with the known quantity they are test driving. We'll see if another (likely non contender) steps up a second chance for a free asset after this summer's free agency.

 

[On The Prowl]

I wouldn't say Brannstrom has entered journeyman status quite yet. He's coming off of consecutive ~20 point seasons as a positive contributing player on a non-playoff team. The next NHL franchise he suits up for will technically be his second.

He was a weird fit for Colorado to begin with. In Edmonton he adds an element we lack behind our top pair.

I would prefer we stay away from small defensemen, ideally for me they would all be giants who can skate well and play physical.

 

[nexttothemoon]

This team is 40 goals above league average. They added two NHL proven top six players who are bonafide 20+ goal scorers and that's being very conservative about their actual results. This team is consistently among the elite PP results over years.

The defense and PK along with assumption that Skinner continues to build consistency in his game is easily the biggest question mark. The offense is more than enough to hide defensive deficiencies through the regular season likely until trade deadline when virtually everyone is projecting the long standing gap at 2RD to be filled with accrued cap space.

No one can predict injury. But this team's elite forward talent drives a 93 percentile offensive zone time engine while keeping the puck away from their net with a 90 percentile defensive zone play. The offense is driven by a generational super elite and a second one who is also within the top five players in the league. Lots of versatility to move players around with centre wing versatility and high hockey processors with a coach able to game plan effectively and showing solid at in game tactical changes.

Again, they can regress somewhat in offensive from their 90 percentile goal scoring last year (99 percentile two years ago and 79 percentile three years ago). They added two NHL proven top six wingers and have a full year of Henrique with 3C and wing versatility and two way play/production. The Oilers have figured out the offensive outscoring piece over years as proof points. They've fired two coaches over the past several years with the uneven defensive play and goaltending. Not the ability to fill the other team's nets.

The top 12 forward goal scorers for the Oilers scored 258 goals in the NHL last season (with the Oilers and their previous teams).

Here's how many goals the current Oilers forward roster scored in the NHL last season:

RNH 18 McDavid 32 Hyman 54
Skinner 24 Drai 41 Arvidsson 6
Janmark 4 Henrique 24 Brown 4
Podkolzin 0 Ryan 5 Perry 12

That's a total of 224 goals

I think we can hopefully expect McDavid and Drai to get more this year. Hyman will likely be down. Skinner I am somewhat puzzled as to what we can expect... if he sees some PP time he could do quite well... but he only had 12 ES goals last season and 14 ES goals the year before. He needs PP time to produce at his best.

Arvidsson if he stays healthy (always a concern) should score a lot more. Henrique could actually score less with the current bottom 6 talent around him. Janmark and Brown... maybe 10 each tops (might be overly optimistic).

That 4th line group... hard to tell how old and slow Perry and Ryan will be and whether this is the year their offensive production falls of a cliff. Podkolzin looks like he has some skills but he's never lived up to his potential... but shouldn't be hard to score more than 0 so he'll produce more for sure.

I don't think it's automatic that the Oilers produce at the same rate as last year... it's a "wait and see" of course but I don't think we can discount the roster turnover and the aging of the roster has consequences in terms of chemistry and Father Time is easy on no one... well except RNH who is still 18.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

The top 12 forward goal scorers for the Oilers scored 258 goals in the NHL last season (with the Oilers and their previous teams).

Here's how many goals the current Oilers forward roster scored in the NHL last season:

RNH 18-McDavid 32-Hyman 54
Skinner 24-Drai 41-Arvidsson 6
Janmark 4-Henrique 24-Brown 4
Podkolzin 0-Ryan 5 -Perry 12

That's a total of 224 goals

I think we can hopefully expect McDavid and Drai to get more this year. Hyman will likely be down. Skinner I am somewhat puzzled as to what we can expect... if he sees some PP time he could do quite well... but he only had 12 ES goals last season and 14 ES goals the year before. He needs PP time to produce at his best.

Arvidsson if he stays healthy (always a concern) should score a lot more. Henrique could actually score less with the current bottom 6 talent around him. Janmark and Brown... maybe 10 each tops (might be overly optimistic).

That 4th line group... hard to tell how old and slow Perry and Ryan will be and whether this is the year their offensive production falls of a cliff. Podkolzin looks like he has some skills but he's never lived up to his potential... but shouldn't be hard to score more than 0 so he'll produce more for sure.

I don't think it's automatic that the Oilers produce at the same rate as last year... it's a "wait and see" of course but I don't think we can discount the roster turnover and the aging of the roster has consequences in terms of chemistry and Father Time is easy on no one... well expect RNH who is still 18.

I posted three year average of their goal scoring at 90 percentile last year; 99 percentile two years ago and 79 percentile three years ago. I didn't even get into the PP results which is consistent among the league's elite. They were 40 goals above league average. Their strength is a perennial league elite PP. And they added two proven top six forwards - one who is a high EV producer with mid-range finishing ability and another blue paint producer. There's enough reliability over years to feel solid that goal production won't be this team's achilles heel. Way more concerned about goal suppression with a non-repeatable playoff PK of 94% that's turned over the right side defense grouping.

The team's offensive engine is driven by a generational super elite who's 27 and second elite who is 28. The third driver is an age 24 defenseman shaping into a league elite. This management group have invested to surround them with quality veteran support players who deliver pretty consistent offensive production. They've made this their bet. Per my last post, it's been the goal suppression work that has been wildly inconsistent with this team. And it is the d-corp that is most significantly in flux with some leap of faith projections to get them to trade deadline and a required 2RD upgrade. The erratic element of their game has been goal suppression which cost two coaches their jobs. This is an elite team build on super elite offensive talent. That side of the ice will be fine.

 

[harpoon]

The fact is McDavid + Draisaitl don't really need a whole lot.

This is a fallacy which you would think the Final series against the Panthers had put to bed for good. But apparently not. Even if you add in Bouchard and Ekholm that’s still not even one full set. And this is hockey where your best five guys cant even play half the game. For once this team needs a balanced lineup behind their best five guys, and they need at least league average goaltending every night. Years of cap mismanagement is still handicapping the club’s ability to ice competent players in the less glamorous, but no less critical, roles. It blows my mind that some fans still seem to think McDavid and Draisaitl ‘don’t really need a whole lot’.