You keep going on about concerns about offence which is overwhelmingly this team's competitive advantage which they further added to this off-season with two NHL proven top six players. Last year the Oilers were 99 percentile for shots on goal; 90 percentile for goals scored; 71 percentile for shooting percentage. They scored 40 more goals than NHL average.
It is this overwhelming ice-tilt in offensive production and their elite zone time play driven by their elite forward group (93 percentile offensive zone; 90 percentile defensive zone) that enables them to take a risk on three unproven or journeyman #6,7,8 on their right-side defense. Barring injury the clear need is going to be 2RD upgrade that pushes everyone down to more realistic, manageable competition levels for an elite team.
NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics for teams including skating speed, skating distance, shot speed, shot location, and zone time.
edge.nhl.com
Well let's look at some of those stats and how the Oilers are looking right NOW... because this team is much different than the one that was playing in the playoffs and in the regular season last year... lots of new bodies now with chemistry to recreate and who knows how the team will gel together.
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Skinner-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Podkolzin-Ryan-Perry
That's pretty much the set in stone forward group at this point... unless they call up Philp/Lavoie but it looks like cap accumulation means they are running with a skeleton crew for now at least.
Here's the stats for that forward group based on last season's stats... also keep in mind that this roster isn't young and everyone who was already aging... got another year older and poetentialy slower as well.
Percentile ranks for each line:
RNH:
68th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
82nd in shots
52nd in shooting %
72nd in goals
94th in offensive zone time
McDavid:
99th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
95th in shots
70th in shooting %
94th in goals
99th in offensive zone time
Hyman
75th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
98th in shots
97th in shooting %
99th in goals
98th in offensive zone time
Skinner
Below 50th in skating speed
71st in shot speed
88th in shots
64th in shooting %
83rd in goals
Below 50th in offensive zone time
Draisaitl
92nd in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
89th in shots
97th in shooting %
97th in goals
94th in offensive zone time
Arvidsson
84th in skating speed
52nd in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
54th in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
63rd in offensive zone time
Janmark
79th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
Below 50th in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
72nd in offensive zone time
Henrique
Below 50th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
62nd in shots
94th in shooting %
83rd in goals
Below 50th in offensive zone time
Brown
56th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
Below 50th in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
68th in offensive zone time
Podzkolzin
Below 50th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
Below 50th in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
90th in offensive zone time
Ryan
Below 50th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
51st in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
75th in offensive zone time
Perry
Below 50th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
86th in shooting %
56th in goals
55th in offensive zone time
Obviously some of those stats above are from when they were on previous teams... so it remains to be seen how the new lineup will look over a full season.
I'm not outright saying they will be worse offensively but I think there's a very good chance that happens because there's a whole lot of new line combinations and new faces and you know every single team in the NHL now knows the Oilers are contender #1 for the cup and opponents usually bring their A games when they play the Oilers... like it's a 7th game of the playoffs for an opponent and it's hard for the Oilers to consistently play up to that level of effort/intensity every game.
I'm obviously going to watch and see (like everyone else)... but my "hot take" is that the offense will be more of an issue than the D at least initially. I think Emberson/Stecher will fill the open spots reasonably effectively... whereas I think it will take time for the offense to gel.
In goal... well it's average at best with Skinner/Pickard but they basically will only be as good as the overall D in front of them... and if goal production does take a dip... that makes every flub and weak goal by the goalies look even worse. Run support cures a lot of defensive and goaltending issues so hopefully I'm wrong and the Oilers can score at the rates they were producing last season.
I'll gladly eat crow and admit my concerns were overblown if they are again top 5 in goal scoring. I just have a gut feeling that it's going to be a much harder grind this season to produce offense at the same rates they did last year.