I think the Oilers aren't really a top end contender anymore, even giving them the benefit of the doubt and assuming they resign Murphy for 4.5-ish, get an OK-ish top 6 forward that isn't totally useless like Mangiapane was, and Babcock is the coaching hire ...
I still think they're not in that top tier of contenders anymore.
Tier 1: (1) Carolina, (2) Florida, (3) Vegas, (4) Colorado, (5) Minny (if they add Larkin)
Tier 2: (6) Tampa (7) Dallas (8) Edmonton, Buffalo (9), Anaheim (10)
Tier 3: Utah (11), LAK (12), then a bunch of mish mashed teams (Pittsburgh, Philly, etc.).
And I'm giving the Oilers the benefit of the doubt on several things even ranking them still above the team that just beat them in the playoffs, that Babcock will improve certain things, but I still don't think they are defensively going to be much better than middle of the pack for goals against (Babcock's teams without Lidstrom are about that range or worse). But even that would be a significant improvement from being bottom 6 as they were last year.
A legit contender is generally top 7-8 in the league for goals against, Carolina was 6th best last season for example. We still don't even have a legit starting goalie, then you have to factor in likely some decline on Hyman, RNH, and Ekholm.