Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Does Bowman Make His Mark on the Team Before Training Camp?

[McHelpus]

What bounce back? He only looked really good in a season playing against Canadian teams, half of which the players weren't even trying.
He is serviceable in the regular season and absolutely horrific EVERY post season.

No sure what he's realistically supposed to "bounce back to" ?

He's been so bad in the post seasons if he actually levels up in the future it would still be subpar. He would literally have to level up by 4-5 to be in good status

Exactly, his only good season was huge asterisk and still resulted in a 1st round sweep. Pray Chiarelli or Holland are hired as GMs again that will trade for him.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Because having Bouchard and McD go pending free agents in same year is worse than having Drai Biuchard be free agents in same year.
Ideally this gets spread out

not when you have double the cap space

 

[Jumptheshark]

I wonder if a Draisaitl extension was already agreed to and they wanted to wait until after the Bowman announcement to confirm it to calm the waters with the fanbase after the initial shitstorm from the Bowman announcement. Wouldn't surprise if me if JJ strategically did this.

This is my guess

 

[Tobias Kahun]

What bounce back? He only looked really good in a season playing against Canadian teams, half of which the players weren't even trying.
He is serviceable in the regular season and absolutely horrific EVERY post season.

No sure what he's realistically supposed to "bounce back to" ?

He's been so bad in the post seasons if he actually levels up in the future it would still be subpar. He would literally have to level up by 4-5 to be in good status

At this point I hope Nurse plays up to a 7m D man.

But I think the biggest thing this shows is how much getting to play with McDavid works for the defense.

Nurse used to get that push, and now its bouchard/ekholm.

 

[North]

I doubt it. I am sure we will be extending McDavid with max cap avaialable before we look at signing Bouchard(RFA).

He didn’t take max cap the first time. What makes you think he would this time?

 

[McSuper]

I’m going to predict that Nurse has a bounce back year and will look closer to a 9 million Dman.

Nurse has never played like a 9 million dollar defenseman. Heck Broberg looked better and just about every 1 was throwing him into trades

 

[LTIR]

He didn’t take max cap the first time. What makes you think he would this time?

I don't think McDavid will get max cap.. but max cap is 20% of cap.
If cap is 94% or 98% then that is 18M+

16.2M for McD is more than fair if Drai is getting 13.8M per

 

[foshizzle]

Why do you believe that they can't have both Nurse and Bouchard. Can you show me the numbers because I don't see it. Of course it would be great if Nurse's salary was less but they will have room for both unless Draisaitl and McDavid take a lot more than I expect.

Sure. Let say Frank Seravalli’s prediction is correct that Bouchard makes 10M. Nurse is 9.25M. You need to round out that defense with a legit top 2 dman to partner with Bouchard. You need likely 2 top 4 D men(Nurse has been playing bottom 2 since March). 20M of the cap is already eaten up. You predicted the cap going up which also means the cost of defensemen go up. Leon and Connor will get new contracts. Having two big paycheques on your D while having Connor and Leon is seriously going to hamper your ability to build both a strong forward group and strong defence.

Say Nurse magically becomes a number 2.
Bouchard-Nurse ->20M
#3 - # 4 -> 12M

32M on a decent defense and you still have 97/29 to sign. Hyman and Nuge close to 11M. How are you going to find wingers for Connor and Leon? You also have Skinner coming due.

I’m going to predict that Nurse has a bounce back year and will look closer to a 9 million Dman.

He won’t. He’s been trending in the opposite way. He also can’t move the puck.

 

[McJesusSaves97]

I’m going to predict that Nurse has a bounce back year and will look closer to a 9 million Dman.

No chance. He might be our 4th best d-man next year if Broberg takes a step. That is more likely imo than him suddenly being an elite D in order to justify that contract

 

[Fourier]

Sure. Let say Frank Seravalli’s prediction is correct that Bouchard makes 10M. Nurse is 9.25M. You need to round out that defense with a legit top 2 dman to partner with Bouchard. You need likely 2 top 4 D men(Nurse has been playing bottom 2 since March). 20M of the cap is already eaten up. You predicted the cap going up which also means the cost of defensemen go up. Leon and Connor will get new contracts. Having two big paycheques on your D while having Connor and Leon is seriously going to hamper your ability to build both a strong forward group and strong defence.

Say Nurse magically becomes a number 2.
Bouchard-Nurse ->20M
#3 - # 4 -> 12M

32M on a decent defense and you still have 97/29 to sign. Hyman and Nuge close to 11M. How are you going to find wingers for Connor and Leon? You also have Skinner coming due.


He won’t. He’s been trending in the opposite way. He also can’t move the puck.

For me the big crunch is next year. After that the cap should start to open up unless someone like Broberg takes a massive step forward. Lets look at next year.

We don't know what the cap will be but it was projected to be $92M before the cap rose this year. With Utah likely to beat Arizona revenues by $60M that alone would add $1M to the cap. So assuming revenues go as expected my guess right now is that the NHL and NHLPA will agree to something like $93.5M but it probably should be higher. At that number if you take off the $2.3M in dead cap you have $91.2M to spend.

We don't know what Leon will get but I think $13.5M is pretty close. The other big unknown of course is Bouchard. One of the reasons that they have not even contemplated signing him is that they are probably waiting to see what all three of Leon Holloway and Broberg get before deciding how to proceed with Bouchard. They have flexibility in terms of term. At 8 years he probably gets $10M if he comes close to duplicating this year. But they could also go short with him. Something like 3 years at $8.5M. They could even take their chances with arbitration. We have Hughes at $7.85M, Makar at $9.0M at $8,45M on their second deal. Dahlin is at $11M but it was his third contract. His second contract was $6M x 3. So lets say the number is $9M.

Broberg and Holloway are important contracts. I suspect the Oilers want to go 2 years for both. Lets try $1.1M for Holloway and $1.3M for Broberg:


My guess is that they will go with a 21 or 22 man roster. Here is what this could look like with the current roster:

Nuge (5.125) McDavid (12.5) Hyman (5.5)
Kane (5.125) Draisaitl (13.5) Arvidsson (4.0)
Holloway (1.1) Henrique (3) Savoie (.887)
Janmark (1.4) xxx yyy


Ekhollm (6) Bouchard (9)
Nurse (9.5) Broberg (1.3)
Kulak (2.7) zzz

Skinner (2.6)
Pickard (1)

That's $84.237M leaving you with about $7M to fill out the rest of the roster and for a cushion. They also have the possibility to move out Kane and or Kulak if they want to go with a more proven RHD. It's not ideal, and would be better if Nurse was at $7.5M of course. But it is doable.



The next year I expect that the cap will take a jump of say $5.5M. I think they could probably re-sign Ekholm for something like $5M x 3. with Kane, Arvidsson, Henrique and Kulak off the books they have almost $23M for raises for McDavid, Skinner, Broberg and Holloway as well as to replace Kulak, Henrique, Arvidsson and Kane. Lets say those raises are McDavid (2), Skinner (2.5) Broberg (3), Holloway (1.5). That leaves you at least $13M to replace Kane who is by then a third line winger, Henrique, Arvidsson and Kulak. Assuming Kulak is replaced internally with someone making (1M), Savoie could be a key here: If he turns out you could go:

Hyman McDavid Savoie
Nuge Draisaitl (6)
Holloway (4) (2)

Beyond that year you are pretty much in the open. The only potential big deal could be Savoie if he really takes off but it is not so likely that we would be looking at anything big for him until 28-29 at the earliest when Nurse's deal is off the books.

Lots of assumptions here of course, but I don't think any are really all that unreasonable and the cap could even go higher more quickly if revenues continue to grow at there recent pace. (The NHL is targeting $10B by the end of the decade). Like every contender in the cap era a tight cap would mean compromises.

 

[McDoused]

For me the big crunch is next year. After that the cap should start to open up unless someone like Broberg takes a massive step forward. Lets look at next year.

We don't know what the cap will be but it was projected to be $92M before the cap rose this year. With Utah likely to beat Arizona revenues by $60M that alone would add $1M to the cap. So assuming revenues go as expected my guess right now is that the NHL and NHLPA will agree to something like $93.5M but it probably should be higher. At that number if you take off the $2.3M in dead cap you have $91.2M to spend.

We don't know what Leon will get but I think $13.5M is pretty close. The other big unknown of course is Bouchard. One of the reasons that they have not even contemplated signing him is that they are probably waiting to see what all three of Leon Holloway and Broberg get before deciding how to proceed with Bouchard. They have flexibility in terms of term. At 8 years he probably gets $10M if he comes close to duplicating this year. But they could also go short with him. Something like 3 years at $8.5M. They could even take their chances with arbitration. We have Hughes at $7.85M, Makar at $9.0M at $8,45M on their second deal. Dahlin is at $11M but it was his third contract. His second contract was $6M x 3. So lets say the number is $9M.

Broberg and Holloway are important contracts. I suspect the Oilers want to go 2 years for both. Lets try $1.1M for Holloway and $1.3M for Broberg:


My guess is that they will go with a 21 or 22 man roster. Here is what this could look like with the current roster:

Nuge (5.125) McDavid (12.5) Hyman (5.5)
Kane (5.125) Draisaitl (13.5) Arvidsson (4.0)
Holloway (1.1) Henrique (3) Savoie (.887)
Janmark (1.4) xxx yyy


Ekhollm (6) Bouchard (9)
Nurse (9.5) Broberg (1.3)
Kulak (2.7) zzz

Skinner (2.6)
Pickard (1)

That's $84.237M leaving you with about $7M to fill out the rest of the roster and for a cushion. They also have the possibility to move out Kane and or Kulak if they want to go with a more proven RHD. It's not ideal, and would be better if Nurse was at $7.5M of course. But it is doable.



The next year I expect that the cap will take a jump of say $5.5M. I think they could probably re-sign Ekholm for something like $5M x 3. with Kane, Arvidsson, Henrique and Kulak off the books they have almost $23M for raises for McDavid, Skinner, Broberg and Holloway as well as to replace Kulak, Henrique, Arvidsson and Kane. Lets say those raises are McDavid (2), Skinner (2.5) Broberg (3), Holloway (1.5). That leaves you at least $13M to replace Kane who is by then a third line winger, Henrique, Arvidsson and Kulak. Assuming Kulak is replaced internally with someone making (1M), Savoie could be a key here: If he turns out you could go:

Hyman McDavid Savoie
Nuge Draisaitl (6)
Holloway (4) (2)

Beyond that year you are pretty much in the open. The only potential big deal could be Savoie if he really takes off but it is not so likely that we would be looking at anything big for him until 28-29 at the earliest when Nurse's deal is off the books.

Lots of assumptions here of course, but I don't think any are really all that unreasonable and the cap could even go higher more quickly if revenues continue to grow at there recent pace. (The NHL is targeting $10B by the end of the decade). Like every contender in the cap era a tight cap would mean compromises.

The cap is probably going up periodically so another 4M next year is likely. I would suggest 92M with 2.3M of that going to rhe campbell buyout. Also I would pencil in Bouchard closer to 10M than 9M.

In total your basically looking at replacement level players to fill out the roster again.

The following year Skinner and McDavid will get their increases at basically take up that increase to the cap and then some as well.

It's going to be tight and IMO the Oilers shouldn't just be clinging onto what they have. I would still like them to find a way to improve their top 4 RHD rather than playing Broberg on his off side with Nurse.

For me this is a make or break it year for Nurse or else you find a way to move on from his contract or have fans break his knees and go on LTIR.

 

[Fourier]

The cap is probably going up periodically so another 4M next year is likely. I would suggest 92M with 2.3M of that going to rhe campbell buyout. Also I would pencil in Bouchard closer to 10M than 9M.

In total your basically looking at replacement level players to fill out the roster again.

The following year Skinner and McDavid will get their increases at basically take up that increase to the cap and then some as well.

It's going to be tight and IMO the Oilers shouldn't just be clinging onto what they have. I would still like them to find a way to improve their top 4 RHD rather than playing Broberg on his off side with Nurse.

For me this is a make or break it year for Nurse or else you find a way to move on from his contract or have fans break his knees and go on LTIR.

I still think there is a reasonable chance that if they need to they will go shorter with Bouchard. I could see 3 years at $8-8.5M. Even something like two years with $7M then $10M which sets the QO in Bouchard's favour, with big signing bonuses up front. Bouchard may want to go long but the Oilers hold some cards here. Arbitration probably gets him in that same range, and an offer sheet is not really much of a threat since the Oilers will match and Bouchard probably wants to stay.

I also think there is a good chance that the cap rises more than you suggest. The expectation was that it would be $92M before the NHLPA and NHL agreed to bump this years cap to $88M. A 5% increase would be almost automatic under the current CBA with revenues already at $6.2B. That takes you to $92.4M. But add in the move to Utah and I would not at all be surprised to see the cap rise a fair bit more given that escrow has pretty much been eliminated. At some point they need to get things back to normal.

All that said if Nurse does not show he is helping the team win they could well try and do something. But it is not going to save them much cap. They can't buy him out and if they retain they will be in tough to replace him for much less than they are already committed to.

 

[FlameChampion]

I’m going to predict that Nurse has a bounce back year and will look closer to a 9 million Dman.

I’ll take whatever you’re having lol

I wish I shared your optimism.

He’s just beyond inconsistent at this point. You never know what you will get from Nurse. In the regular season, he can be anywhere from a 3 to 8m dman on any given night. But in the playoffs he just gets further exposed and far below that number.

 

[McDoused]

I still think there is a reasonable chance that if they need to they will go shorter with Bouchard. I could see 3 years at $8-8.5M. Even something like two years with $7M then $10M which sets the QO in Bouchard's favour, with big signing bonuses up front. Bouchard may want to go long but the Oilers hold some cards here. Arbitration probably gets him in that same range, and an offer sheet is not really much of a threat since the Oilers will match and Bouchard probably wants to stay.

I also think there is a good chance that the cap rises more than you suggest. The expectation was that it would be $92M before the NHLPA and NHL agreed to bump this years cap to $88M. A 5% increase would be almost automatic under the current CBA with revenues already at $6.2B. That takes you to $92.4M. But add in the move to Utah and I would not at all be surprised to see the cap rise a fair bit more given that escrow has pretty much been eliminated. At some point they need to get things back to normal.

All that said if Nurse does not show he is helping the team win they could well try and do something. But it is not going to save them much cap. They can't buy him out and if they retain they will be in tough to replace him for much less than they are already committed to.

I'm not suggesting that its not possible, im just saying that its not sure we should be banking on it.

I still think we are going to see a trade or two to open up some cap flexibility.

 

[Fourier]

I'm not suggesting that its not possible, im just saying that its not sure we should be banking on it.

I still think we are going to see a trade or two to open up some cap flexibility.

They may have to make a deal to get under the cap this year unless they have an injury that gives them LTIR.

The one move I really question is the deal they gave Perry. They could have saved some money by simply going with someone like Lavoie. Moreover, if he earns a few $100K in bonuses that makes next year a little tighter.

As for next year, I am pretty confident of a higher than $92M cap but if it does not happen I could see them moving Kane.

 

[McDoused]

They may have to make a deal to get under the cap this year unless they have an injury that gives them LTIR.

The one move I really question is the deal they gave Perry. They could have saved some money by simply going with someone like Lavoie. Moreover, if he earns a few $100K in bonuses that makes next year a little tighter.

As for next year, I am pretty confident of a higher than $92M cap but if it does not happen I could see them moving Kane.

Their options are pretty limited in who they can move this year.

I would expect Ceci traded. The only other 2 guys that make sense to trade are Kane and Nurse but they both have protection. Everyone else on the roster was just brought back or worth their contracts.

No one else really makes a whole lot of sense unless you're trading a Holloway/Broberg for a similar young player that plays RHD.

The only other guy I could see moving is Kulak.

 

[North]

I don't think McDavid will get max cap.. but max cap is 20% of cap.
If cap is 94% or 98% then that is 18M+

16.2M for McD is more than fair if Drai is getting 13.8M per

We won’t know until the contracts are negotiated so I don’t know why you’re acting like it’s a fait accompli.

 

[Soundwave]

I don't think McDavid will get max cap.. but max cap is 20% of cap.
If cap is 94% or 98% then that is 18M+

16.2M for McD is more than fair if Drai is getting 13.8M per

They can have whatever they want, but they need to realistically ask themselves if they think they can win a Cup with salaries at that range. Not only here but basically on any team.

Your quality of life at $100 million versus $110 million doesn't change much, ask Crosby if he'd trade his Cup rings for $15 million in extra career earnings.

 

[Spawn]

They can have whatever they want, but they need to realistically ask themselves if they think they can win a Cup with salaries at that range. Not only here but basically on any team.

Your quality of life at $100 million versus $110 million doesn't change much, ask Crosby if he'd trade his Cup rings for $15 million in extra career earnings.

Crosby didn’t need to get asked that question because his last contract was signed in an environment he could make his $12m a year and still end up with an 8.7m cap hit with the 4 extra years tacked on.

 

[LTIR]

They can have whatever they want, but they need to realistically ask themselves if they think they can win a Cup with salaries at that range. Not only here but basically on any team.

Your quality of life at $100 million versus $110 million doesn't change much, ask Crosby if he'd trade his Cup rings for $15 million in extra career earnings.

Well, 20% of total cap is the max a player can have.. I was just point out the amount which is far below 16M I expect him to get.

 

[LTIR]

They may have to make a deal to get under the cap this year unless they have an injury that gives them LTIR.

The one move I really question is the deal they gave Perry. They could have saved some money by simply going with someone like Lavoie. Moreover, if he earns a few $100K in bonuses that makes next year a little tighter.

As for next year, I am pretty confident of a higher than $92M cap but if it does not happen I could see them moving Kane.

Perry's cap his 1.15M if he plays 14 games or less next season .. rest (240k) is performance bonus.

 

[Fourier]

Perry's cap his 1.15M if he plays 14 games or less next season .. rest (240k) is performance bonus.

Yes I understand that.

Their options are pretty limited in who they can move this year.

I would expect Ceci traded. The only other 2 guys that make sense to trade are Kane and Nurse but they both have protection. Everyone else on the roster was just brought back or worth their contracts.

No one else really makes a whole lot of sense unless you're trading a Holloway/Broberg for a similar young player that plays RHD.

The only other guy I could see moving is Kulak.

Basically it comes down to one of Kulak or Ceci most likely. Kulak is probably a better value contract, but Ceci is a RHD.

 

[Fourier]

Justin Barron just signed a two year deal with an AAV of $1.15M. That would be a nice deal for Broberg.

 

[McAsuno]

I’m going to predict that Nurse has a bounce back year and will look closer to a 9 million Dman.

He never looked anything like a 9M dman to begin with.
Nurse's defensive IQ looks horseshit on a lot of occasions.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

Kylington signs a cheap 1 million dollar contract with the Avs