Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Dermott on a PTO, Will We See More PTO's? Can We Get Some Toughness Too Please?

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

What leads you to believe Emberson can be a top 4 defenseman on this team anytime soon? Maybe in 3-5 years he could be something, and that's a long shot. He has 30 games of NHL experience and I don't see glimpses of anything special. Not in the player's reads or physical abilities.

Statistics?





What makes you believe he can't be? Or do you think your eye-test is more telling than statistics. Would love to know which NHL team you scout for if so.

 

[Senor Catface]

if they had caproom they could find someone on waivers.. or make a trade.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Statistics?





What makes you believe he can't be? Or do you think your eye-test is more telling than statistics. Would love to know which NHL team you scout for if so.

I've seen those aberrations. I want Emberson to succeed. I'm sure he'll be tolerable in the top 4 against middling teams who have players who play at his level or a level below. Against top 10 teams, with considerably better players, he likely gets outmatched. Against elite teams, ruined. I hope I'm wrong.

I mentioned today I stopped watching AHL hockey, do you know why? Because it's barely watchable these days. The same can be said for watching some of the less talented NHL teams.

30 games, if you want to prove anything of relevance you would have to do an eye test, while considering the opponent as well as the players he faced off against for each of those 30 games. If you did that and came back with a report that I find credible... you are an expert. I doubt you have the resources to do that.

Here is a hyperlink to Ty Emberson's individual game log breakdown for all 30 2023-24 regular season games.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

I've seen those aberrations. I want Emberson to succeed. I'm sure he'll be tolerable in the top 4 against middling teams who have players who play at his level or a level below. Against top 10 teams, with considerably better players, he likely gets outmatched. Against elite teams, ruined. I hope I'm wrong.

I mentioned today I stopped watching AHL hockey, do you know why? Because it's barely watchable these days. The same can be said for watching some of the less talented NHL teams.

30 games, if you want to prove anything of relevance you would have to do an eye test, while considering the opponent as well as the players he faced off against for each of those 30 games. If you did that and came back with a report that I find credible... you are an expert. I doubt you have the resources to do that.

Here is a hyperlink to Ty Emberson's individual game log breakdown for all 30 2023-24 regular season games.

You keep making proclamations without any sort of evidence to back your position. It's hard to take your opinions seriously if you can't provide context.

 

[McFlyingV]

Statistics?





What makes you believe he can't be? Or do you think your eye-test is more telling than statistics. Would love to know which NHL team you scout for if so.

These statistics don't surprise me at all. You can see the defensive hockey IQ with him every shift. He just recognizes where danger is and positionally puts himself in excellent positions to cut off high danger passes or tie up the high danger option. When you pair that with a good skater who has a quality breakout pass and a decent wingspan you usually have a very good defensive D. Should only get better as he gets more NHL games in and is still a good bet to become a top 4D throughout the season or into next year given he's only 24.

I like this bet by the Oilers, but I also love high hockey sense D who can skate and move the puck, and he checks off all 3 boxes. Time will tell if there's more offence there to give, but he should be able to limit the fire drill scrambles that always made the Nurse-Ceci pairing a disaster simply because he's a better skater, puck retriever, puck mover and reads the play better than Ceci did.

 

[Faelko]

These statistics don't surprise me at all. You can see the defensive hockey IQ with him every shift. He just recognizes where danger is and positionally puts himself in excellent positions to cut off high danger passes or tie up the high danger option. When you pair that with a good skater who has a quality breakout pass and a decent wingspan you usually have a very good defensive D. Should only get better as he gets more NHL games in and is still a good bet to become a top 4D throughout the season or into next year given he's only 24.

I like this bet by the Oilers, but I also love high hockey sense D who can skate and move the puck, and he checks off all 3 boxes. Time will tell if there's more offence there to give, but he should be able to limit the fire drill scrambles that always made the Nurse-Ceci pairing a disaster simply because he's a better skater, puck retriever, puck mover and reads the play better than Ceci did.

It’s just unfortunate that they have to push him into the 2RHD, giving him a year at 3RHD with Kulak would’ve been perfect but is what it is…

 

[Jumptheshark]

Statistics?





What makes you believe he can't be? Or do you think your eye-test is more telling than statistics. Would love to know which NHL team you scout for if so.

here is an example of why I hate snap shot analytics and people being so confident in them.

Emberson only played in 30 nhl games last year. Some might want to play that down but for me when your talking less the a 1/2 season. The analytics come with an *. That is jut me

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

here is an example of why I hate snap shot analytics and people being so confident in them.

Emberson only played in 30 nhl games last year. Some might want to play that down but for me when your talking less the a 1/2 season. The analytics come with an *. That is jut me

Not saying they are the be-all-end-all, but it's all we have so far. The argument is if he's capable of being a 4D this year. Based on what we have so far, It doesn't appear outside of question.

I'd be much more worried if we had. 30-game snapshot of him failing at defense.

 

[McAsuno]

Why don't you guys just have Broberg Speed on ignore? Guy adds no value to discussions.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Not saying they are the be-all-end-all, but it's all we have so far. The argument is if he's capable of being a 4D this year. Based on what we have so far, It doesn't appear outside of question.

I'd be much more worried if we had. 30-game snapshot of him failing at defense.

No I was talking about the twitter guy who posted the sample size.
I am more interested in the fact Emberson played 69 games for Knob in the AHL. And the the Rangers traded 2 seconds to get him in 2022

 

[McAsuno]

This Escott guy was defending Brown hard a few days ago lol.

It's funny how wrong often the Oilers media members are. Bootlickers who often get all 'pissy' or defensive when they get called out for being wrong. Always starts with the weasel Spector, then Matheson, then Gregor, and the list goes on from there including Escott.
Literally, Josh Brown was analytically one of the worst D man last season alone, and even the charts show that he's such a piss poor dman. But but but the media members say he's big and has grit! I personally don't care how big or how gritty he is when his stickhandling, passing, and defensive IQ is massively mediocre. He's never going to be the next Vinny Desharnais here.

Somebody on twitter basically said any time Brown's on the ice, opponents advanced stats offensively would rival McDavid. Oilers cannot afford to go on another slow start like last season either. Bury him in the AHL and only call him up when it's a game where there's potential facepunching involved.

 

[Broberg Speed]

These statistics don't surprise me at all. You can see the defensive hockey IQ with him every shift. He just recognizes where danger is and positionally puts himself in excellent positions to cut off high danger passes or tie up the high danger option. When you pair that with a good skater who has a quality breakout pass and a decent wingspan you usually have a very good defensive D. Should only get better as he gets more NHL games in and is still a good bet to become a top 4D throughout the season or into next year given he's only 24.

I like this bet by the Oilers, but I also love high hockey sense D who can skate and move the puck, and he checks off all 3 boxes. Time will tell if there's more offence there to give, but he should be able to limit the fire drill scrambles that always made the Nurse-Ceci pairing a disaster simply because he's a better skater, puck retriever, puck mover and reads the play better than Ceci did.

I saw some pretty questionable shit from Emberson in pre-season and that's a fact. Two occasions from the last pre-season game alone, one in the defensive zone and one in the offensive zone, I was left thinking wtf... that isn't good.

You keep making proclamations without any sort of evidence to back your position. It's hard to take your opinions seriously if you can't provide context.

I hear proclamations claiming this player is a stud because of stats from a small sample of fancies without even a hint of variables included with them. I guess we'll have to wait and see. You seem more assured of your opinion on Emberson than anyone.

 

[Senor Catface]

Why don't you guys just have Broberg Speed on ignore? Guy adds no value to discussions.

Where else can you hear slang terms high schoolers said ten years ago?

 

[McAsuno]

Where else can you hear slang terms high schoolers said ten years ago?

I turned 30 last July and saw the 'rizzler cam' footage of the Gen Z kids last week when the Oilers vs the krakens. Made me feel old as well as seeing how stupid that trend is lol.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

I saw some pretty questionable shit from Emberson in pre-season and that's a fact. Two occasions from the last pre-season game alone, one in the defensive zone and one in the offensive zone, I was left thinking wtf... that isn't good.


I hear proclamations claiming this player is a stud because of stats from a small sample of fancies without even a hint of variables included with them. I guess we'll have to wait and see. You seem more assured of your opinion on Emberson than anyone.

That's interesting, I'm more impressed than anything that you know my opinion before I even do. I haven't formed one yet let alone presented one on these boards.

I'm encouraged by what he's done in his limited ice time though.

 

[UpHere]

Why don't you guys just have Broberg Speed on ignore? Guy adds no value to discussions.

i have him on the Replacement scroll past list - that way it saves a click or two

 

[nexttothemoon]

I think logically it's best to "wait-and-see" with regards to the team D.

Emberson had decent numbers on the PK last season with the Sharks as well.

XGA/60 was 6.04... playing an avg of 1:06 on the penalty kill per game. That was the best XGA/60 on the PK for any dman on the Sharks by a very wide margin.

Other dmen (who played any significant PK time per game) were at these levels :
7.64
8.18
8.54
8.80
9.56
10.20
13.99

So at the very least the Oilers may have added a body that can help on the PK... and with Ceci and Desharnais gone... that's needed.

By the way... Desharnais had an XGA/60 on the PK of 5.97 and Ceci had a XGA/60 on the PK of 8.03.... and that obviously was on a much better team than the Sharks as the Sharks had the 5th worst PK in the NHL.

All we really need from Emberson is to be reliable on the ice defensively... as the other 4 players on the ice for the Oilers can contribute offensively... including Nurse who may get a little extra boost on offense when he has a more solid D partner.

It's a smallish 30 game sample... but as others have said... being pretty solid defensively in a 30 game sample is better than being bad defensively in a 30 game sample.


Stecher also looked solid in the few actual NHL games with the Oilers last season... 2.09 XGA/60 and 1.10 GA/60 at 5 on 5 which is of course exceptional... yes a 7 game sample... but again better to look good than awful.


Let's wait and see what the defense actually performs like before deciding to do something drastic.


I actually have more concerns with the offense... going to take some time for the 2nd line to gel imo. Maybe some experimenting to see if Skinner plays better with McDavid but I dunno if Skinner will mesh well with a speed-demon like McDavid... again we'll have to wait and see.

 

[McDNicks17]

I think the "only 30 games" thing is pretty funny. Welcome to actual pro scouting where you take educated risks on players.

Some people seem to be used to the Ken Holland school of pro scouting where you only look for 30+ year old guys that are past their prime because they're "proven".

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I think the "only 30 games" thing is pretty funny. Welcome to actual pro scouting where you take educated risks on players.

Some people seem to be used to the Ken Holland school of pro scouting where you only look for 30+ year old guys that are past their prime because they're "proven".

Its also easier to play for a team that has zero expectations as opposed to a team that’s expected to win the Cup.

 

[belair]

Its also easier to play for a team that has zero expectations as opposed to a team that’s expected to win the Cup.

You don't win the Cup in games 1 through 60.

The more important person on that second pairing is the #3D on the left the Cup winning team needs to play a much bigger role on. Darnell Nurse isn't going to get his feet under him if the idea is that he needs someone to shelter him or carry him.

Emberson needs to be Ethan Bear. Safe enough to play the minutes. They'll replace him soon enough when they have the cap space and the market to do so.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

You don't win the Cup in games 1 through 60.

The more important person on that second pairing is the #3D on the left the Cup winning team needs to pay a much bigger role on. Darnell Nurse isn't going to get his feet under him if the idea is that he needs someone to shelter him or carry him.

Emberson needs to be Ethan Bear. Safe enough to play the minutes. They'll replace him soon enough when they have the cap space and the market to do so.

I’m not expecting much out of Nurse this year but it sure would be nice if he played like he gave a damn and could elevate his partner. The Nurse pairing has been an Achilles heel the past few playoffs.

 

[Mr Positive]

I’m not expecting much out of Nurse this year but it sure would be nice if he played like he gave a damn and could elevate his partner. The Nurse pairing has been an Achilles heel the past few playoffs.

Maybe I'm just optimistic but imo a better partner will bring back the Nurse that earned that contract.

Part of it is that I don't see other great Dmen having to carry a bottom pairing guy. Makar has Toews. I get that part of it is that usually these high paid guys are on the top pairing and so of course they at least get the 2nd best guy.

 

[McDNicks17]

Its also easier to play for a team that has zero expectations as opposed to a team that’s expected to win the Cup.

Sure, you've got less expectations, but you're also playing with Nico Sturm instead of Leon Draisaitl.

 

[Oilslick941611]

You keep making proclamations without any sort of evidence to back your position. It's hard to take your opinions seriously if you can't provide context.

He does it because it’s very easy to talk shit and be negative about the team only 1 team wins and the odds of being right with a bad boisterous take is overwhelmingly more common than believing in the team.

At the end of the season he can sit here with his “ I told you so’s” because it’s more likely the oilers don’t win than do win because it’s a 32 team league. What he’s doing is so see through and transparent. It’s easier to be negative and say everything sucks. It’s the simple IQ play.