Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Dermott on a PTO, Will We See More PTO's? Can We Get Some Toughness Too Please?

[TB12]

Since Rasmus is a guy I'd love here in Vancouver I'm hoping my allegiance won't be held against me, I'm just a fan of trade talk and not here to troll.
With that being said I just can't see a path that isn't overtly convoluted for you guys to be able to get him while the opposite is true for the nucks.

The first comparison is cap space, you guys have 900k for sure, we have 2.4 million. No GM is going to use kane's LTIR because he's not going to be out all year, while Poolman 100% will be.

Then there's assets, you guys have no 1st this year we do and we also have 3-4 guys two in particular that can be used while the guy you got from the Sabres seems redundent in the flames prospect pool but is still a valuable piece but I think Lekkerimakki or Willander are more enticing. Personally I'd rather just do two firsts and a lesser prospect but who knows what the flames would want package wise.

Lastly With likely multiple teams interested and with all the above why would Conroy trade with the oilers when there's plenty of other teams that aren't provincial rivals.
If no other team was interested or the oilers blew him away maybe but that's unlikely given you have no first, and a bit so good prospect pool.

It's all moot tho since unless Kane and some doctors are willing to lie his cap hit won't be off the books all year.

lol

 

[Fourier]

Certainly the 4th line after the TDL and Kanes return will look dramatically different but that’s several months away and is still an issue until replacement players are found.

I don't expect the 4th line to contribute much offensively but it is supposed to provide some of your players on the PK. Ryan is at this stage a 3rd pairing PKer at best. But the 4th line cannot be getting caved in 5v5 like it’s been historically in the McDavid era.

I also don’t like the chemistry of the line. Podkolzin is not a 4th line checking player. Perry doesn’t fit that mold either. Ryan at C with poor foot speed. This line on paper just doesn’t work at all.

And the 1 thing your discounting is that it probably will be playing most its time with a weakened right side defender.

Those foibles add up not consecutively but exponentially worse especially when being exploited by an opposing coach taking advantage of the one true weakness on the team and can turn momentum in a game by hemming this line with its defenders inside our zone for extended periods pushing the top lines into more defensive draws and defensive zone time.

The solution is to not play them much but overplaying the top 9 early in the season till the 4th line weakness is addressed hurts us in an expected long season.

I don’t believe it’s a critical weakness but when combined with a low quality 2 and 3 RD it’s going add up to goals against over time.

But as you say by the TDL I fully expect Kane back and the addition of 1 quality right defender and a good right shot 4C replacement for Ryan be it via trade or internally with the likes of Philp if he shows progression in Bako.

So come playoff time it should not be a source of concern which I think we both agree on.

Last year with Ryan on the ice (but neither of McDavid or Draisaitl) the team had a CF% of 52.46% with a xGF% of 51.77% and a HDCF% 54.34%. That's not getting caved in by any stretch. And if you add in Holloway to the mix the numbers don't change all that much. So there is no real reason to think things will change markedly.

It's not clear that the weaker RHD will make much difference. For Ryan for example roughly half of his time on the ice last year was with Desharnais. But the numbers were pretty much the same regardless of which defender was on the right side. In today's NHL fourth lines typically play against 4th lines and have bottom pairing defenders on both sides. So the threat from teh opposition is almost always going to be pretty minimal. At least 75% of the time 4th lines are just out there to give the rest of the forwards a breather. They can have a minor impact on momentum. But even that tends not to really change outcomes.

As to Podkolzin, what has been lacking in his game has been finish. It seems that his game at this time is actually suited to the role he is likely to play. He has been physical, has developed a decent defensive game and is a strong skater. Of course how the fourth line turns out is up in the air because we don't really know who will play where when the opening night puck drops. What is also true is that the Oilers top 6 eats up more time than most team's would leaving even less time for the worker bees. But the fact is that in terms of actually impacting wins and losses 4th line forwards at ES have little impact on the outcome in the vast majority of cases.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Last year with Ryan on the ice (but neither of McDavid or Draisaitl) the team had a CF% of 52.46% with a xGF% of 51.77% and a HDCF% 54.34%. That's not getting caved in by any stretch. And if you add in Holloway to the mix the numbers don't change all that much. So there is no real reason to think things will change markedly.

It's not clear that the weaker RHD will make much difference. For Ryan for example roughly half of his time on the ice last year was with Desharnais. But the numbers were pretty much the same regardless of which defender was on the right side. In today's NHL fourth lines typically play against 4th lines and have bottom pairing defenders on both sides. So the threat from teh opposition is almost always going to be pretty minimal. At least 75% of the time 4th lines are just out there to give the rest of the forwards a breather. They can have a minor impact on momentum. But even that tends not to really change outcomes.

As to Podkolzin, what has been lacking in his game has been finish. It seems that his game at this time is actually suited to the role he is likely to play. He has been physical, has developed a decent defensive game and is a strong skater. Of course how the fourth line turns out is up in the air because we don't really know who will play where when the opening night puck drops. What is also true is that the Oilers top 6 eats up more time than most team's would leaving even less time for the worker bees. But the fact is that in terms of actually impacting wins and losses 4th line forwards at ES have little impact on the outcome in the vast majority of cases.

Last year was the one year that the 4th line didn’t get caved in overall but it was composed differently and Ryan also was playing RW for the vast majority of the year. Center is typically the anchor of a line and I don’t think he can anchor a line anymore. Also you’re pulling stats from the entire year. In the first 25 games the 4th line was not good.

Correct, the 4th line is not typically a difference maker one way or the other but we’ve seen many a day when our 4th line was AHL quality costing us many a game. Podkolzin I don’t know how he will fit but as as I’ve said could surprise. I don’t think it’s as bad as that but it’s still a weakness until improved upon.

But I think our RD is weaker than last seasons and smart coaches will target that and with home changes will try and catch that 4th line on our D zone draws which they typically will take, with speed and tenacious forechecking lines looking for overmatch goals.

Will that cause us to lose games? Probably not many. But it’s still a huge hole in what must be a Cup winning team. For now. I’m excited to see how it improves as we return Kane and add a player or two to bolster the bottom 6. My hope is internally Philp gets back on the wagon fast and by the TDL is the 4C but it might be too much to ask for a young player who missed an entire season.

 

[CupofOil]

We didn't win the Cup because Draisaitl and Kane were both hurt severely impacting our top 6 scoring.

We shut Florida's ass down the longer that series went on, they averaged 2 goals per game the final 4 games of the series. Florida's lowest scoring series was against us. They won the basis of a coin flip, more or less.

We shut down Dallas, Vancouver, and LA's offenses too as those series' went longer.

This is pure coaching pretty much, Skinner wasn't even that great.

Surprisingly, the Oilers lost because the top guys were shut down. Draisaitl had 0 points in 3 of the losses and McDavid 1 with both putting up goose eggs in Game 7.
The defense and goaltending were fine, depth scorers did their part.
Sure, Skinner could have had the GWG and I still have no idea what Kulak was doing but when you score 2 goals in 3 losses and only 1 by the top 6 it's hard to win.

That's actually the 2nd playoff series elimination (Vegas the year before) where the Draisaitl line was the worst line either due to injury or lack of suitable linemates. This is why I scoff at those who think the Oilers wasted money by signing Skinner and Arvidsson and should have matched the offer sheets instead. The 2nd line possibly cost them 2 Cups or at least 1.

 

[K1984]

Surprisingly, the Oilers lost because the top guys were shut down. Draisaitl had 0 points in 3 of the losses and McDavid 1 with both putting up goose eggs in Game 7.
The defense and goaltending were fine, depth scorers did their part.

That's actually the 2nd playoff series elimination (Vegas the year before) where the Draisaitl line was the worst line either due to injury or lack of suitable linemates. This is why I scoff at those who think the Oilers wasted money by signing Skinner and Arvidsson and should have matched the offer sheets instead. The 2nd line possibly cost them 2 Cups or at least 1.

The second line wings was arguably the main problem with the team through the entire year last year, even ahead of defense. I agree that it was a pivotal move.

Even in the playoffs the best you could get was a flash of performance from someone before they go backwards again and had to get shuffled out. It shouldn’t be that the 2nd line has about 6 different wingers work through it over the course of a playoff.

 

[joestevens29]

He does. I’d touched on it



Basically by asking him right at the deadline, you’d hopefully be able to convince him to move his timeline up slightly. You’re then only asking them to be apart for 2-3 months instead of the entire season.

I mean you have to think once her residency is done she plans on working, no?

Can she even work in Canada?

Not sure is a viable target

 

[CupofOil]

The second line wings was arguably the main problem with the team through the entire year last year, even ahead of defense. I agree that it was a pivotal move.

Even in the playoffs the best you could get was a flash of performance from someone before they go backwards again and had to get shuffled out. It shouldn’t be that the 2nd line has about 6 different wingers work through it over the course of a playoff.

It's especially a problem when Drai is either injured or worn down later in the playoffs because he has to literally carry the entire weight of a line.

I think it's easy for Oiler fans to hit the default method and automatically blame the defense or goaltending but they were actually quite solid in the Panthers series (not surprisingly when Nurse-Ceci were broken up) and Skinner was good, again, in Games 4-7 of the series just like the other series. It was that Drai line, again, that was their weakest link so I think the Arvidsson and Skinner additions are being undersold as absolute critical moves.

All this talk about the weakened disaster the defense is and what a struggle it will be but Ceci+Desharnais to Emberson+Brown/Stecher doesn't seem like much of a downgrade at all to me and might even be an upgrade with some Emberson growth potential and with guys that can actually handle a puck and skate the puck out of trouble feeding transition.
They'll need an upgrade eventually but they can win a division with this defense, as long as they don't shit the bed to start the season again.

 

[The Nuge]

I mean you have to think once her residency is done she plans on working, no?

Can she even work in Canada?

Not sure is a viable target

I really don’t think a Dr is going to have all that much trouble finding work in Canada. Heck, I’m pretty sure if Coffey or Lowe made one call to Randy Gregg they could probably line something up pretty quick

 

[Soundwave]

Surprisingly, the Oilers lost because the top guys were shut down. Draisaitl had 0 points in 3 of the losses and McDavid 1 with both putting up goose eggs in Game 7.
The defense and goaltending were fine, depth scorers did their part.
Sure, Skinner could have had the GWG and I still have no idea what Kulak was doing but when you score 2 goals in 3 losses and only 1 by the top 6 it's hard to win.

That's actually the 2nd playoff series elimination (Vegas the year before) where the Draisaitl line was the worst line either due to injury or lack of suitable linemates. This is why I scoff at those who think the Oilers wasted money by signing Skinner and Arvidsson and should have matched the offer sheets instead. The 2nd line possibly cost them 2 Cups or at least 1.

Lack of a one shot scorer was a big issue, we had plenty of scoring chances, but Hyman sometimes goes into like mini-funks where he can't cash anything other than pure McGimmes.

McDavid's shot was crippled all year last year, Draisaitl broke his rib and then broke his finger and could get nothing on his shot by the Finals.

That's why yeah, we definitely needed shoot first wingers.

 

[joestevens29]

I really don’t think a Dr is going to have all that much trouble finding work in Canada. Heck, I’m pretty sure if Coffey or Lowe made one call to Randy Gregg they could probably line something up pretty quick

I don't know if it applies to Americans, but there's been articles about how Canadian's that go to the United States for schooling don't get preferred treatment when coming back to Canada so one has to assume it could be similar for her

That and you also have to think she wants to start somewhere and have a career. Is Edmonton really going to be on the top of the Trouba's list?

 

[The Nuge]

I don't know if it applies to Americans, but there's been articles about how Canadian's that go to the United States for schooling don't get preferred treatment when coming back to Canada so one has to assume it could be similar for her

That and you also have to think she wants to start somewhere and have a career. Is Edmonton really going to be on the top of the Trouba's list?

An article about Doctors struggling to find work? Because I sure doubt it. The government literally spends millions of dollars every year trying to get foreign Doctors to come.

Why wouldn’t it? Do you think they’re going to be any happier in Columbus, where he’s stuck on a bottom feeder? You can’t sign an extension at the deadline, but you could float the idea of a handshake extension to be signed a couple months later in the summer. If he knew he’s spending like 4.5 years here, that’s plenty of time to start up her career, and then they can move wherever she wants when he retires.

 

[Fourier]

Last year was the one year that the 4th line didn’t get caved in overall but it was composed differently and Ryan also was playing RW for the vast majority of the year. Center is typically the anchor of a line and I don’t think he can anchor a line anymore. Also you’re pulling stats from the entire year. In the first 25 games the 4th line was not good.

Correct, the 4th line is not typically a difference maker one way or the other but we’ve seen many a day when our 4th line was AHL quality costing us many a game. Podkolzin I don’t know how he will fit but as as I’ve said could surprise. I don’t think it’s as bad as that but it’s still a weakness until improved upon.

But I think our RD is weaker than last seasons and smart coaches will target that and with home changes will try and catch that 4th line on our D zone draws which they typically will take, with speed and tenacious forechecking lines looking for overmatch goals.

Will that cause us to lose games? Probably not many. But it’s still a huge hole in what must be a Cup winning team. For now. I’m excited to see how it improves as we return Kane and add a player or two to bolster the bottom 6. My hope is internally Philp gets back on the wagon fast and by the TDL is the 4C but it might be too much to ask for a young player who missed an entire season.

In the first 25 games last year the fourth line was on the ice for about 4 GF and 6 GA 5 vs 5. It's pretty hard to convert that into a big impact on the bad start.

There is no way that a even a below average 4th line costs a team like the Oilers many games. Typically a 4th liner on a team like the Oilers for is on the ice maybe 30-40 goals against at worst the whole year. Derek Ryan for example was on the ice for 79 GA over the last 3 years in 225 games. That's an average of about 26 GA per year. But he was also on for 75 GF over that period.

James Hamblin was the 4th line center for 41 games over the last two years. He was on the ice for 10 GF and 9 GA. That is an AHL/NHL tweener holding his own in the 4C spot. Outside of possibly the pk I suspect you could replace Ryan with Hamblin and the team would not miss a beat.

A really bad 4th line on a good team might be a net negative of say 8-10 goals in a season. Statistically that is going to cost you about 3 points in the standings over a 4th line that plays the opposition even up. But the Oilers should not have a really bad 4th line, and if healthy by the playoffs, when it really counts they should be fine. Certainly having Holloway in that #4C spot might have been a positive, but they won't win or lose based on the 4th line. On the other hand that second pair RHD may be a real difference maker.

 

[bucks_oil]

An article about Doctors struggling to find work? Because I sure doubt it. The government literally spends millions of dollars every year trying to get foreign Doctors to come.

Why wouldn’t it? Do you think they’re going to be any happier in Columbus, where he’s stuck on a bottom feeder? You can’t sign an extension at the deadline, but you could float the idea of a handshake extension to be signed a couple months later in the summer. If he knew he’s spending like 4.5 years here, that’s plenty of time to start up her career, and then they can move wherever she wants when he retires.

It's unlikely she's looking for just any general practitioner job.

She's doing her residency at Hofstra/Zucker which has a top-ranked research program for its med school. She's specializing on Osteopathy (kinda "whole-body" health) and has an undergrad degree in Neuroscience. https://www.usnews.com/best-graduate-schools/top-medical-schools/research-rankings

Only she knows what her career goals are, but I think you are oversimplifying this... they've already impacted his $8M/year career because "her career is as important as mine".

 

[K1984]

It's unlikely she's looking for just any general practitioner job.

She's doing her residency at Hofstra/Zucker which has a top-ranked research program for its med school. She's specializing on Osteopathy (kinda "whole-body" health) and has an undergrad degree in Neuroscience. https://www.usnews.com/best-graduate-schools/top-medical-schools/research-rankings

Only she knows what her career goals are, but I think you are oversimplifying this... they've already impacted his $8M/year career because "her career is as important as mine".

Anyone here can call me an asshole if they want to, but I'm sorry, your husband might have 5-6 years left in the league. Assuming she's the same age as him, I don't think she'll have a problem picking up at age 35 while not skipping a beat.

When an NHL career generally only exists between the age of 20-35 (at best), I have a hard time listening to people compare it to a normal job.

 

[fuswald]

The honest truth is the Oilers had Drai, McDavid and Bouchard (the latter two breaking records held by Gretzky and Orr) and we still lost to Florida. We saw first hand that our defense still wasn’t good enough with Ceci in the top 4 and we are praying Emberson can be a miracle add.

We lost because we couldn't score.

 

[joestevens29]

Anyone here can call me an asshole if they want to, but I'm sorry, your husband might have 5-6 years left in the league. Assuming she's the same age as him, I don't think she'll have a problem picking up at age 35 while not skipping a beat.

When an NHL career generally only exists between the age of 20-35 (at best), I have a hard time listening to people compare it to a normal job.

I mean you're not wrong, but at the same time they've already used her career as an excuse.

That and it's not like Edmonton is his only option and for American's I don't really see us being high on his option list.

The guy will have other options that personally work for him IMO. Especially if we are thinking of a third team retaining half for us.

 

[OilerTyler]

We lost because we couldn't score.

Yup, we only gave up 16 non-empty net goals in 7 games against one of the top offences in the league. That's really, really good. Expecting anything better than that isn't really realistic.

Our problem was that we scored 1 goal or less in 3 of the games.

 

[Spawn]

Yup, we only gave up 16 non-empty net goals in 7 games against one of the top offences in the league. That's really, really good. Expecting anything better than that isn't really realistic.

Our problem was that we scored 1 goal or less in 3 of the games.

And we scored 20 non-empty net goals in 7 games against the best defense in the league. Expecting better than that probably isn’t realistic either.

Florida showed they could lock it down when it mattered most. Something we couldn’t do.

There’s also more to a defense not being good enough than just goals against. We also didn’t have anyone to effectively transition the puck up the ice outside of the top pair. That hasn’t been improved this offseason.

 

[McHelpus]

Since Rasmus is a guy I'd love here in Vancouver I'm hoping my allegiance won't be held against me, I'm just a fan of trade talk and not here to troll.
With that being said I just can't see a path that isn't overtly convoluted for you guys to be able to get him while the opposite is true for the nucks.

The first comparison is cap space, you guys have 900k for sure, we have 2.4 million. No GM is going to use kane's LTIR because he's not going to be out all year, while Poolman 100% will be.

Then there's assets, you guys have no 1st this year we do and we also have 3-4 guys two in particular that can be used while the guy you got from the Sabres seems redundent in the flames prospect pool but is still a valuable piece but I think Lekkerimakki or Willander are more enticing. Personally I'd rather just do two firsts and a lesser prospect but who knows what the flames would want package wise.

Lastly With likely multiple teams interested and with all the above why would Conroy trade with the oilers when there's plenty of other teams that aren't provincial rivals.
If no other team was interested or the oilers blew him away maybe but that's unlikely given you have no first, and a bit so good prospect pool.

It's all moot tho since unless Kane and some doctors are willing to lie his cap hit won't be off the books all year.

 

[The Nuge]

Anyone here can call me an asshole if they want to, but I'm sorry, your husband might have 5-6 years left in the league. Assuming she's the same age as him, I don't think she'll have a problem picking up at age 35 while not skipping a beat.

When an NHL career generally only exists between the age of 20-35 (at best), I have a hard time listening to people compare it to a normal job.

Exactly. It’s not like it’s a man vs woman thing or anything like that. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that most couples would prioritize the higher earner with 5 years of earning potential from age 30-35, and then prioritize the other person’s career from age 35-60.

She's doing her residency at Hofstra/Zucker which has a top-ranked research program for its med school. She's specializing on Osteopathy (kinda "whole-body" health) and has an undergrad degree in Neuroscience. https://www.usnews.com/best-graduate-schools/top-medical-schools/research-rankings

That’s fine. She can still practice it in Edmonton. It’s not like there aren’t specialists

only she knows what her career goals are, but I think you are oversimplifying this... they've already impacted his $8M/year career because "her career is as important as mine".

No they haven’t. He simply didn’t waive his NTC, which he had every right to do.

 

[K1984]

And we scored 20 non-empty net goals in 7 games against the best defense in the league. Expecting better than that probably isn’t realistic either.

Florida showed they could lock it down when it mattered most. Something we couldn’t do.

There’s also more to a defense not being good enough than just goals against. We also didn’t have anyone to effectively transition the puck up the ice outside of the top pair. That hasn’t been improved this offseason.

Even the 20 goals wasn't really indicative of the opportunities created. The latter part of the series wasn't great for him, but in the first 8 periods of the Final Bobrovsky was playing among the best I've ever seen anyone play goal. There were probably at least 5 more goals there if he wasn't playing superhuman.

The only game I felt like we had issues creating was in Game 7. Sadly.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

View attachment 907506

“I’m not here to troll, just to tell you my team has better assets to get this player and you have no chance”

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

In the first 25 games last year the fourth line was on the ice for about 4 GF and 6 GA 5 vs 5. It's pretty hard to convert that into a big impact on the bad start.

There is no way that a even a below average 4th line costs a team like the Oilers many games. Typically a 4th liner on a team like the Oilers for is on the ice maybe 30-40 goals against at worst the whole year. Derek Ryan for example was on the ice for 79 GA over the last 3 years in 225 games. That's an average of about 26 GA per year. But he was also on for 75 GF over that period.

James Hamblin was the 4th line center for 41 games over the last two years. He was on the ice for 10 GF and 9 GA. That is an AHL/NHL tweener holding his own in the 4C spot. Outside of possibly the pk I suspect you could replace Ryan with Hamblin and the team would not miss a beat.

A really bad 4th line on a good team might be a net negative of say 8-10 goals in a season. Statistically that is going to cost you about 3 points in the standings over a 4th line that plays the opposition even up. But the Oilers should not have a really bad 4th line, and if healthy by the playoffs, when it really counts they should be fine. Certainly having Holloway in that #4C spot might have been a positive, but they won't win or lose based on the 4th line. On the other hand that second pair RHD may be a real difference maker.

For sure the 2nd pair RD is a massive potentially game costing hole. Ryan is not the same Ryan as last year, he clearly lost a step over the past 13-14 months. Until the 4th line can prove to hold its head above water when out with our 2nd or 3rd pairing D I will be holding my breath until the TDL. Might cost us a few points, nothing too worrisome but again, it is a weakness I see, hopefully nothing too bad.

 

[Soundwave]

And we scored 20 non-empty net goals in 7 games against the best defense in the league. Expecting better than that probably isn’t realistic either.

Florida showed they could lock it down when it mattered most. Something we couldn’t do.

There’s also more to a defense not being good enough than just goals against. We also didn’t have anyone to effectively transition the puck up the ice outside of the top pair. That hasn’t been improved this offseason.

Why isn't expecting more offense realistic with more offensive options?

That's kinda like saying "you can't expect to go faster with a faster car" ... uh pray tell why exactly?

I will take 2 goals allowed in a game 7 against anyone, any day of the week. You have a reasonably high chance of winning that game, Florida got very lucky Draisaitl and Kane were both injured and even McDavid could not get much on his shot release all due to injuries.

 

[foshizzle]

An article about Doctors struggling to find work? Because I sure doubt it. The government literally spends millions of dollars every year trying to get foreign Doctors to come.

Why wouldn’t it? Do you think they’re going to be any happier in Columbus, where he’s stuck on a bottom feeder? You can’t sign an extension at the deadline, but you could float the idea of a handshake extension to be signed a couple months later in the summer. If he knew he’s spending like 4.5 years here, that’s plenty of time to start up her career, and then they can move wherever she wants when he retires.

What you said is blatantly false. The government does spend millions of dollars to bring doctors over. Canada has one the highest standards on the planet when it comes to the practice of Medicine. There are literally thousands of foreign trained doctors in Alberta who are not qualified to practice medicine here. Even from US trained doctors- you have to pass the medical exam- which is apparently incredibly tough to pass. If you are in the small number of the smartest people in society to pass- you have to work under another doctor before you are allowed to practice. Even specialist, you cannot practice your specialty here- you can be a family doctor. Source: My best friend is a doctor and my brother in law is a foreign trained doctor trying to practice here. Also, my cousin is looking at med schools across the world and this is what she has been advised.