As someone who's been happy with Holland's trajectory, no, Athanasiou was a horrendous gamble. It was clear there was very little range to his game and he should've known that coming from the organization that drafted and developed him.The AA trade looked like it wasn't working out before Covid hit based on his lack of production, Covid complicated the financial aspect.
Wouldn't you agree that it looked like a "good bet" that a guy like AA who has scored goals at a top 6 level every season in the league would do the same alongside McDavid or Draisaitl?
My general point is that you can put asterisks next to most bad or good moves. The only thing that really matters is the results and the result is that the AA trade was a mistake and the Smith signing worked out.
I agree with your premise. You have to take the good with the bad, but Athanasiou was an unnecessary gamble and way out of character compared to the more passive moves since signing here.