Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread: Hallsy Take 2?

[Delicious Pancakes]

I'm not interested in bringing Hall back either at the price he'll be asking for. Move on.

 

[SwedishFire]

I see Sheahan as more of a 4C then 3C

Those who doesnt actually thinks wrong. he IS 4C. Or a very poor 3C.

 

[LaGu]

Absolutely zero chance that's the price.
Look at what Karlsson and Stone returned. The ask would probably be Bouchard or Broberg and that's in the case of a sign and trade (the Stone example).

You could be right, Ottawa is never a good example though. It's just an anomaly organisation in general.

I am looking at Seth Jones trade, maybe Vatanen. There are not many examples of young D getting traded.

Anyhow, I did not mean to start a big discussion about this. I don't like the idea, and don't want the trade. But if I am NJ this is what I'd ask for since it's a big need and nothing else (except picks) that I really need from Edm.

 

[CupofOil]

The 2016 and 2017 Penguins would like a word.

The Penguins had the benefit of their big contracts being signed a long time ago. They had Crosby and Malkin locked up to Draisaitl level numbers and Kessel locked up to a Nuge like number. They had 25m invested into their Big 3 whereas the Oilers would have around 32m locked up into their Big 3 with Hall. Not to mention that Nuge and Nurse are due for raises (Nurse's being significant) and still have Neal on the books for the next 3 years at around 6m. They also had a #1 Dman.

As I said before, if they can move Neal without taking salary back (highly unlikely) then I'd be more open to bringing Hall back but even then, there's lots of red flags with giving franchise money at max term to an oft injured 29-36 year old forward who will be the 3rd option.. I'd be hesitant to sign him to such a deal even they didn't have McDrai. Great player but you're getting a lot of past prime years with that contract.

 

[guymez]

Here I did a breakdown of the GAR (Goals above Replacement) and WAR (Wins above replacement) per the Evolving Hockey website, which are basically trying to calculate the improvement in goal differential the players have on their team relative to an average replacement player and on wins they contribute.

*I did not apply any weighting based on number of games played just took the numbers on the website added them up and divided by 3

Here are the top 20 highest paid forwards in terms of cap-hit and their respective GAR and WAR averaged over 3 years

1. Connor McDavid ($12.5M) GAR(3 year average)=26.467, WAR(3 year average)=5
2. Artemi Panarin ($11.643M) GAR(3 year average)= 11.533, WAR(3 year average)= 2.167
3. Auston Matthews ($11.634M) GAR(3 year average)=12.767 , WAR(3 year average)=2.433
4. John Tavares ($11M) GAR(3 year average)= 12.467, WAR(3 year average)= 2.367
5. Mitch Marner ($10.893M) GAR(3 year avg)= 13.967, WAR (3 year avg)= 2.633
6. Jonathan Toews ($10.5M) GAR(3 year avg)= 4.4, WAR(3 year avg)= 0.833
7. Patrick Kane ($10.5M) GAR(3 year avg)= 7.83, WAR(3 year avg)= 1.467
8. Anze Kopitar ($10M) GAR(3 year avg)=9.767, WAR(3 year avg)= 1.867
9. Jack Eichel ($10M) GAR(3 year avg)= 10.9, WAR(3 year avg)= 2.067
10. Tyler Seguin ($9.85M) GAR(3 year avg)= 14.13, WAR (3 year avg)= 2.7
11. Alexander Ovechkin ($9.538M) GAR(3 year avg)= 7.267, WAR(3 year avg)= 1.367
12. Jamie Benn ($9.5M) GAR(3 year avg)= 10.133, WAR(3 year avg)= 1.967
13. Nikita Kucherov ($9.5M) GAR(3 year avg)= 16.867, WAR(3 year avg)= 3.2
14. Evgeni Malkin ($9.5M) GAR(3 year avg)= 11.833, WAR(3 year avg)= 2.233
15. Mark Stone ($9.5M) GAR(3 year avg)= 20.867, WAR(3 year avg)=3.933
16. Mikko Rantanen ($9.25M) GAR(3 year avg)=9.733, WAR(3 year avg)= 1.9
17. Jeff Skinner ($9M) GAR(3 year avg)= 13.867, WAR(3 year avg)= 2.6
18. Sidney Crosby($8.7M) GAR(3 year avg)= 16.667, WAR(3 year avg)= 3.133
19. Steven Stamkos ($8.5M) GAR(3 year avg)=14.533, WAR(3 year avg)=2.733
20. Leon Draisaitl ($8.5M) GAR(3 year avg)=15.933, WAR(3 year avg)=3.033

Taylor Hall ($6M/TBD) GAR(3 year avg)=16.167, WAR(3 year avg)= 3.1

It should be noted that being a 3 year sample size different players are trending in different directions like certain young players are trending up and some older players are trending down, but based on the 3 year sample size and the 21 players evaluated above the 6 best forwards in order are:

1. Connor McDavid
2. Mark Stone
3. Nikita Kucherov
4. Sidney Crosby
5. Taylor Hall
6. Leon Draisaitl

How does this factor in the quality of the replacement?

 

[belair]

RNH has one. But he’s a nice polite young man so everyone seems OK with giving him $8 million on a long term deal. That doesn’t have any cap implications at all.

Also a center who plays all situations and has bought into his role on this team. Considering the value of centers in this league, $8m is around market value for the production he brings and the workload he takes on.

 

[TameYew]

Also a center who plays all situations and has bought into his role on this team. Considering the value of centers in this league, $8m is around market value for the production he brings and the workload he takes on.

I would pass on anything greater than 8.5M for Hall and I would pass on RNH at 8M.

 

[Paralyzer]

If Zucker waives his NTC to play for the Oilers, we don't have to honor it after that?

I don't believe so.

Not true. Just like the NMC with Lucic, it stays with the player throughout his contract, UNLESS the GM and Agent both in writing agree to waive his NTC and nullify it.


What is a Limited, or Modified No-Trade Clause (M-NTC)?

A limited, or modified no-trade clause (M-NTC) is less restrictive than a full no-trade clause (NTC), and can be added to a player's contract in the years after they are eligible for Group 3 Unrestricted Free Agency (7 Accrued seasons or 27 years of age), and has the following properties:

• The player's contract includes specific terms in respect to being traded without their consent where the player must:
  • In a specified timeframe or window:
    • Specify a pre-determined number of teams the player would be willing to be traded to, or:
    • Specify a pre-determined number of teams the player would not be willing to be traded to
• Consent is not required to be placed on waivers
• Consent is not required for assignment to the minors
• Player is not exempt from a buyout or contract termination
• The clause can travel with the player even if he consents to being traded or is claimed on waivers
  • This requires that the acquiring team sign an addendum to the contract ensuring that the clause does in fact travel with the player (written by the player's agent)
  • If the acquiring team refuses to sign the addendum, and the player waives his clause anyway, at that point the clause may be nullified
• If the player is traded before the clause takes effect, the acquiring team can opt to void the clause

Example: Modified No-Trade Clause: Within 48 hours of request, the player must submit a list of 18 teams they are willing to be traded to without consent. If the list is not received within 48 hours, the player can be traded to any team without consent.

NHL CBA FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[belair]

I would pass on anything greater than 8.5M for Hall and I would pass on RNH at 8M.

Passing on RNH at $8m leads you to the UFA market searching for a 2C. It's not a good plan. Not to mention $8m two years from now is likely not equal to $8m today.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

How does this factor in the quality of the replacement?

Here is a basic rundown Advanced Stats 102 - What is GAR?

A replacement level player is a player of a caliber such that they are readily available and can be acquired and played at a moment’s notice. Think along the lines of the players who shuttle waivers every year, or are your emergency callups from the AHL. A replacement level player is one of those. An example would be a player like Byron Froese - a good player in the AHL who becomes very limited at the NHL level.

A replacement level player isn't a static metric as the quality of replacement level players fluctuates and the math that goes into deriving that baseline is beyond me. I'm sure there are more advanced break downs out there if you are really interested, but the above article is a good baseline to familiarize a layman with what GAR is.

 

[SwedishFire]

You make it sound so easy.

and stupid. WHy give that much for Hall

 

[McDNicks17]

If Zucker waives his NTC to play for the Oilers, we don't have to honor it after that?

Most players won't waive them without the next team agreeing to honor it.

 

[guymez]

Here is a basic rundown Advanced Stats 102 - What is GAR?



A replacement level player isn't a static metric as the quality of replacement level players fluctuates and the math that goes into deriving that baseline is beyond me. I'm sure there are more advanced break downs out there if you are really interested, but the above article is a good baseline to familiarize a layman with what GAR is.

I think that the fluctuating aspect of the replacement player throws into question the accuracy of the numbers.

 

[McShogun99]

Signing Hall next off season won't put us in that much of a cap crunch long term. The cap keeps increasing and with Seattle entering the league we should see a decent jump in the cap. That being said I wouldn't want to sign Hall to anything over 10 million but he will probably get 11+ on the open market.

 

[belair]

Signing Hall next off season won't put us in that much of a cap crunch long term. The cap keeps increasing and with Seattle entering the league we should see a decent jump in the cap. That being said I wouldn't want to sign Hall to anything over 10 million but he will probably get 11+ on the open market.

Adding over $10m to any team's payroll is likely to have them in a cap crunch.

Signing Hall would leave us at around a $68-69m payroll with our entire bottom six, four defense and a backup goalie to sign.

Assuming Nurse gets $7m, we're looking at around $8-9m to sign around ten players. And that's just year one. Assuming some of our current guys earn raises in the near future, that contract forces us to shed money to pay others in the future. That hasn't worked out well for us in the past.

 

[bucks_oil]

Passing on RNH at $8m leads you to the UFA market searching for a 2C. It's not a good plan. Not to mention $8m two years from now is likely not equal to $8m today.

Or you finally play Drai back at center where he is equally effective and allows you to build a deeper set of $5M wingers around both he and McD. I might rather have:

$5M McD ELC
$5M Drai ELC

Total $33M

Than....

ELC McD Drai
ELC Nuge Chaisson-type

Total $34M

Just as an example...

 

[SwedishFire]

Here I did a breakdown of the GAR (Goals above Replacement) and WAR (Wins above replacement) per the Evolving Hockey website, which are basically trying to calculate the improvement in goal differential the players have on their team relative to an average replacement player and on wins they contribute.

*I did not apply any weighting based on number of games played just took the numbers on the website added them up and divided by 3

Here are the top 20 highest paid forwards in terms of cap-hit and their respective GAR and WAR averaged over 3 years

1. Connor McDavid ($12.5M) GAR(3 year average)=26.467, WAR(3 year average)=5
2. Artemi Panarin ($11.643M) GAR(3 year average)= 11.533, WAR(3 year average)= 2.167
3. Auston Matthews ($11.634M) GAR(3 year average)=12.767 , WAR(3 year average)=2.433
4. John Tavares ($11M) GAR(3 year average)= 12.467, WAR(3 year average)= 2.367
5. Mitch Marner ($10.893M) GAR(3 year avg)= 13.967, WAR (3 year avg)= 2.633
6. Jonathan Toews ($10.5M) GAR(3 year avg)= 4.4, WAR(3 year avg)= 0.833
7. Patrick Kane ($10.5M) GAR(3 year avg)= 7.83, WAR(3 year avg)= 1.467
8. Anze Kopitar ($10M) GAR(3 year avg)=9.767, WAR(3 year avg)= 1.867
9. Jack Eichel ($10M) GAR(3 year avg)= 10.9, WAR(3 year avg)= 2.067
10. Tyler Seguin ($9.85M) GAR(3 year avg)= 14.13, WAR (3 year avg)= 2.7
11. Alexander Ovechkin ($9.538M) GAR(3 year avg)= 7.267, WAR(3 year avg)= 1.367
12. Jamie Benn ($9.5M) GAR(3 year avg)= 10.133, WAR(3 year avg)= 1.967
13. Nikita Kucherov ($9.5M) GAR(3 year avg)= 16.867, WAR(3 year avg)= 3.2
14. Evgeni Malkin ($9.5M) GAR(3 year avg)= 11.833, WAR(3 year avg)= 2.233
15. Mark Stone ($9.5M) GAR(3 year avg)= 20.867, WAR(3 year avg)=3.933
16. Mikko Rantanen ($9.25M) GAR(3 year avg)=9.733, WAR(3 year avg)= 1.9
17. Jeff Skinner ($9M) GAR(3 year avg)= 13.867, WAR(3 year avg)= 2.6
18. Sidney Crosby($8.7M) GAR(3 year avg)= 16.667, WAR(3 year avg)= 3.133
19. Steven Stamkos ($8.5M) GAR(3 year avg)=14.533, WAR(3 year avg)=2.733
20. Leon Draisaitl ($8.5M) GAR(3 year avg)=15.933, WAR(3 year avg)=3.033

Taylor Hall ($6M/TBD) GAR(3 year avg)=16.167, WAR(3 year avg)= 3.1

It should be noted that being a 3 year sample size different players are trending in different directions like certain young players are trending up and some older players are trending down, but based on the 3 year sample size and the 21 players evaluated above the 6 best forwards in order are:

1. Connor McDavid
2. Mark Stone
3. Nikita Kucherov
4. Sidney Crosby
5. Taylor Hall
6. Leon Draisaitl

Hall is no good for this team by several reasons. Most for he has the best years behind him, and hasnt grown that much as a player, maybe as a person, but still a winger with a straight but very simple playingstyle. A no go. And the stats you have shown sure shows what has been, but not what will be. And Im sure Hall is a big risk signing, and a very expensive signing, crushing the teams cap once again.

 

[bucks_oil]

Adding over $10m to any team's payroll is likely to have them in a cap crunch.

Signing Hall would leave us at around a $68-69m payroll with our entire bottom six, four defense and a backup goalie to sign.

Assuming Nurse gets $7m, we're looking at around $8-9m to sign around ten players. And that's just year one. Assuming some of our current guys earn raises in the near future, that contract forces us to shed money to pay others in the future. That hasn't worked out well for us in the past.

Given the depth of our emerging D... Bear, Laggesson, Persson, Bouchard, Broberg, Jones...

Do you really entertain a scenario where we even need to pay Nurse that much? I mean I love the guy... but if even 3 of these guys pan out (and arguably 2 already have), I'd certainly be keeping Klef as my stabilizing presence and be at least willing to consider trading Nurse.

We have a lot of D-talent maturing at the same time and it may allow us to really build a solid core on the cheap while we wait for a few other contracts to expire (Neal, Russell). Just a thought...

 

[belair]

Or you finally play Drai back at center where he is equally effective and allows you to build a deeper set of $5M wingers around both he and McD. I might rather have:

$5M McD ELC
$5M Drai ELC

Total $33M

Than....

ELC McD Drai
ELC Nuge Chaisson-type

Total $34M

Just as an example...

So in the instance one goes down, who plays the 2C role?

You do realize RNH plays 20 minutes on average, all situations often against other teams' top offensive threats, right?

McDavid/Draisaitl together has us at 6-1. Letting RNH walk thins out our depth at center, splits up the league's most potent offensive duo and relies on us finding two productive free agents below market value.

RNH is currently earning the raise he's likely to receive in two years. It's likely going to cost us about $2m when all is said and done. Considering our horrible history going into the UFA market, it surprises me when people continue to rely on it.

 

[belair]

Given the depth of our emerging D... Bear, Laggesson, Persson, Bouchard, Broberg, Jones...

Do you really entertain a scenario where we even need to pay Nurse that much? I mean I love the guy... but if even 3 of these guys pan out (and arguably 2 already have), I'd certainly be keeping Klef as my stabilizing presence and be at least willing to consider trading Nurse.

We have a lot of D-talent maturing at the same time and it may allow us to really build a solid core on the cheap while we wait for a few other contracts to expire (Neal, Russell). Just a thought...

Short answer? Yes.

I don't envision a successful defense that has more than two rookies on it. Specifically in roles that a player like Nurse is relied upon to fill. It has taken a number of years for Nurse to become the player he is today. We're a number of years away from a number of these guys to become the players they'll eventually become. Some won't even make it.

In the short term I expect at least two of the three guys losing the waiver exemption next year to be traded. Bear being the least likely.

Moving forward, I expect Nurse, Klefbom and Larsson to do most of the heavy lifting on our defense. Simply because growing pains aren't necessary.

 

[Messrules11]

I see Hall in the same boat as Stone, if he’s not signing with the Devils they’ll deal him to a team where he will sign. They’re not letting that asset walk for nothing.

 

[Little Fury]

The Penguins had the benefit of their big contracts being signed a long time ago. They had Crosby and Malkin locked up to Draisaitl level numbers and Kessel locked up to a Nuge like number. They had 25m invested into their Big 3 whereas the Oilers would have around 32m locked up into their Big 3 with Hall.

Pens had about 32% of their cap tied up in their big three in 2016. Assuming $10M for Hall and an $85M cap, the Oilers would have about 36% in their big three. That doesn't seem very significant to me.

Not to mention that Nuge and Nurse are due for raises (Nurse's being significant) and still have Neal on the books for the next 3 years at around 6m. They also had a #1 Dman.

Uh, if Nurse is due for a significant raise, I sure as hell hope that's because he's become a #1D man. Anyway, replacing Russell and Larsson with ELC D men takes care of that raise, which leaves you with Nuge. If Neal falls off, that's a cheap buyout that would give you more than enough space to bring RNH back. It's doable.

As I said before, if they can move Neal without taking salary back (highly unlikely) then I'd be more open to bringing Hall back but even then, there's lots of red flags with giving franchise money at max term to an oft injured 29-36 year old forward who will be the 3rd option.. I'd be hesitant to sign him to such a deal even they didn't have McDrai. Great player but you're getting a lot of past prime years with that contract.

And I don't disagree with any of this. However, I think they're going to have to be very aggressive starting next offseason to add some scoring help. If Hall's interested and the numbers can work, they'd be foolish not to kick the tires.

 

[Soundwave]

Zucker's wife apparently has a child from another marriage in the state and they refuse to waive their NTC for that reason, so that probably means that option is out.

I don't see Adam Larsson being a long term fit here, so when factoring in whatever Hall's salary could be, you can subtract $4 million from it because Larsson most likely is going the other way.

 

[joestevens29]

WTF is Jersey doing with that Nico contract? 7 years 50mil?

 

[joestevens29]

Zucker's wife apparently has a child from another marriage in the state and they refuse to waive their NTC for that reason, so that probably means that option is out.

I don't see Adam Larsson being a long term fit here, so when factoring in whatever Hall's salary could be, you can subtract $4 million from it because Larsson most likely is going the other way.

I feel like you can pay the ex to move. That and it's modified so what happens if he gets dealt to a team that he has agreed to?