Round 2, Vote 4 (HOH Top Goaltenders)

[quoipourquoi]

And this brings me to my next question:

Is Ed Belfour basically Turk Broda reincarnated 50-60 years later? I do think Belfour has a slightly better peak than Broda, but not by much probably.

I think that's being too generous. Broda was consistently a top-three goaltender even looking strictly at the regular season. And even when accounting for spike seasons interfering with Belfour's placement on the Vezina and save percentage leaderboards, he's the fourth best goalie to the Roy-Hasek-Brodeur grouping. With Broda having a strong argument to be considered the best playoff goaltender of his time, where does Belfour make up ground on Broda when he was certainly not a better playoff goaltender than Roy or Hasek, and likely in the mix with Brodeur, Joseph, and Osgood in the 1990s-2000s?

 

[tarheelhockey]

And you are correct, much better playoff performer. But that seems to be the strong point for many of the candidates this round (Broda, Smith, Parent, Bower).

That's a good observation for framing the decisions we face in this round.

Personally, I find it hard to overlook extended regular-season mediocrity. Great playoff runs are obviously the ideal outcome of a season, but I get suspicious when I see a guy whose numbers are night and day from March to April. Where was his "clutch" play when playoff positioning or division titles were on the line? Sure, playoff games are more important than those things, but in the moment it doesn't feel that way. It's pretty rare to see a team genuinely blow off regular games as unimportant, so the thought of the goalie having that attitude... I dunno, it just doesn't seem like a positive trait. And it seems that those super-clutch playoffs tend to happen on teams that provide a notably high level of "clutch" support at all positions, not just goal.

So, while I don't want to completely blow off guys like Smith and Broda, I kind of need to be sold that they had a good reason for being ordinary 80% of the time.

 

[MXD]

I think that's being too generous. Broda was consistently a top-three goaltender even looking strictly at the regular season. And even when accounting for spike seasons interfering with Belfour's placement on the Vezina and save percentage leaderboards, he's the fourth best goalie to the Roy-Hasek-Brodeur grouping. With Broda having a strong argument to be considered the best playoff goaltender of his time, where does Belfour make up ground on Broda when he was certainly not a better playoff goaltender than Roy or Hasek, and likely in the mix with Brodeur, Joseph, and Osgood in the 1990s-2000s?

He was the third best regular season goalie until WWII. And he was also second to a guy who might even not make the Top-40.

And seriously, if newspapers quotes could be used to show that Brimsek was somewhat equal to Durnan past WWII, then we should actually rely on the said quotes to conclude that Chuck Rayner was actually a better goalie than Turk Broda (post WWII -- Broda definitely deserves to be ahead of Rayner and Kerr overall).

Such a thing would make Broda a BELOW-AVERAGE goalie for the later part of his career.

 

[BM67]

Not really the numbers of a top 15 goalie all-time.

And you are correct, much better playoff performer. But that seems to be the strong point for many of the candidates this round (Broda, Smith, Parent, Bower).

Belfour's SV% is also influenced by an arena bias of under counting.

Here is a season by season H/R breakdown for Belfour.

Year|H Min%|H SV%|R SV%|H SOG/60|R SOG/60|H Saves/60|R Save/60|SOG Dif|Save Dif|SOG Dif%|Save Dif%
90-91|52.62%|.905|.915|26.14|28.75|23.65|26.30|2.61|2.65|9.98%|11.21%
91-92|46.39%|.897|.891|23.68|26.95|21.25|24.01|3.27|2.76|13.81%|12.99%
92-93|52.35%|.903|.909|26.07|29.01|23.53|26.37|2.94|2.84|11.28%|12.07%
93-94|53.48%|.902|.910|27.48|29.45|24.78|26.81|1.97|2.03|7.17%|8.19%
94-95|53.41%|.896|.916|22.51|26.23|20.17|24.02|3.72|3.85|16.53%|19.09%
95-96|48.91%|.899|.904|27.05|28.65|24.32|25.90|1.60|1.58|5.91%|6.50%
96-97|55.51%|.895|.906|26.95|31.59|24.13|28.62|4.64|4.49|17.22%|18.61%
97-98|56.05%|.914|.919|20.78|24.40|18.98|22.42|3.62|3.44|17.42%|18.12%
98-99|55.42%|.907|.923|21.00|26.15|19.04|24.14|5.15|5.10|24.52%|26.79%
99-00|52.32%|.914|.924|24.39|27.84|22.30|25.72|3.45|3.42|14.15%|15.34%
00-01|56.05%|.915|.893|22.53|27.10|20.61|24.21|4.57|3.60|20.28%|17.47%
01-02|52.55%|.892|.898|24.01|26.58|21.40|23.89|2.57|2.49|10.70%|11.64%
02-03|55.25%|.919|.926|28.71|29.70|26.38|27.51|0.99|1.13|3.45%|4.28%
03-04|57.92%|.914|.922|25.27|26.62|23.10|24.55|1.35|1.45|5.34%|6.28%
05-06|58.14%|.894|.890|30.63|30.48|27.39|27.12|-0.15|-0.27|-0.49%|0.99%
06-07|52.48%|.901|.903|27.84|28.75|25.10|25.95|0.91|0.85|3.27%|3.39%
Career|53.69%|.904|.909|25.33|28.21|22.90|25.64|2.88|2.74|11.37%|11.97%

Belfour has only 3 years where he had a better SV% at home than he did on the road. They are also the 3 worst road SV% of his career.

Here is the league average SOGA/60 for
1953-54: Home: 26.95 Road: 32.14 Dif: 5.19 or 19.26% (ENG not removed)
1988-89: Home: 28.42 Road: 31.60 Dif: 3.18 or 11.19%
1989-90: Home: 28.52 Road: 31.26 Dif: 2.74 or 9.61%.
1990-91: Home: 28.11 Road: 30.74 Dif: 2.63 or 9.36%.
1996-97: Home: 28.60 Road: 30.25 Dif: 1.65 or 5.77%.
2006-07: Home: 28.22 Road: 30.24 Dif: 2.02 or 7.16%.
2007-08: Home: 27.54 Road: 29.92 Dif: 2.38 or 8.64%.
2008-09: Home: 28.81 Road: 30.90 Dif: 2.09 or 7.25%.
2009-10: Home: 28.98 Road: 30.87 Dif: 1.89 or 6.52%.
2010-11: Home: 29.15 Road: 30.88 Dif: 1.73 or 5.93%.
2011-12: Home: 28.37 Road: 30.33 Dif: 1.96 or 6.91%.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

He was the third best regular season goalie until WWII. And he was also second to a guy who might even not make the Top-40.

And seriously, if newspapers quotes could be used to show that Brimsek was somewhat equal to Durnan past WWII, then we should actually rely on the said quotes to conclude that Chuck Rayner was actually a better goalie than Turk Broda (post WWII -- Broda definitely deserves to be ahead of Rayner and Kerr overall).

Such a thing would make Broda a BELOW-AVERAGE goalie for the later part of his career.

How can a goalie that wins 4 Cups in his last 6 seasons be considered below average for the later part of his career?

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

How can a goalie that wins 4 Cups in his last 6 seasons be considered below average for the later part of his career?

The other 400 games he played during that time, I guess.

 

[MXD]

How can a goalie that wins 4 Cups in his last 6 seasons be considered below average for the later part of his career?

Games played between October and April. Below average, as in, between 3rd and 4th best goalie in a given time-frame (or one could say that he was the median goaltender IF one wants to include Jim Henry in this).

It's also just about being consistent with what happened in regards to Brimsek vs. Durnan (in regards to everything that was said about Chuck Rayner during that timespan).

To all : Sorry to bring Rayner (and Dave Kerr) in this discussion. I know they're not up for voting, and I'd never rank them above Turk Broda anyways.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

And this brings me to my next question:

Is Ed Belfour basically Turk Broda reincarnated 50-60 years later? I do think Belfour has a slightly better peak than Broda, but not by much probably.

EDIT: And Broda was probably a little better in the playoffs too

Not IMO. Broda was consistantly a mid level goalie, 3rd or 4th in a 6 team league. While Belfour had a couple of great years, a could of good years and a fair amount of sub par years. He was rarely average.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Games played between October and April. Below average, as in, between 3rd and 4th best goalie in a given time-frame (or one could say that he was the median goaltender IF one wants to include Jim Henry in this).

It's also just about being consistent with what happened in regards to Brimsek vs. Durnan (in regards to everything that was said about Chuck Rayner during that timespan).

To all : Sorry to bring Rayner (and Dave Kerr) in this discussion. I know they're not up for voting, and I'd never rank them above Turk Broda anyways.

That's still 3rd best goalie at the time. And the very best goalie of the time in the playoffs.

Sawchuk, Hall and Plante couldn't have all been top 2 at the same time, could they? But they are all top 5 on the list.

 

[MXD]

That's still 3rd best goalie at the time. And the very best goalie of the time in the playoffs.

Sawchuk, Hall and Plante couldn't have all been top 2 at the same time, could they? But they are all top 5 on the list.

I'd like to remind you that Brimsek just got ranked and Durnan isn't ranked yet. Chuck Rayner might appear in Vote 7 and Dave Kerr in Vote 9 or 10.

Sawchuck was the lesser of those three goaltenders, but Plante and Hall were Top-5 goalies, with a few having Plante 1st.

Besides, Sawchuck had a COMPLETELY different career path than Broda. At some point, Sawchuck was better than Plante and Hall... Actually, before Plante and Hall established themselves.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Ed Belfour

I think it's easy to forget just how impressive it is to be the 4th best goalie of the era of the GM-voted Vezina Trophy. These are top goalies in Vezina shares since the Vezina was first voted on in 1982:

times = times a player received at least 1 vote from a GM
share = sum of seasonal Vezina shares

player|times|share
Martin Brodeur|15|5.4072
Dominik Hasek|11|4.7591
Patrick Roy|17|4.6216
Ed Belfour|11|2.5044
Tom Barrasso|7|1.9833
Grant Fuhr|8|1.5901
Roberto Luongo|7|1.5600
Tim Thomas|3|1.5533
John Vanbiesbrouck|9|1.5329
Henrik Lundqvist|7|1.4933

But Belfour's Vezina record is especially impressive considering the competition.

His actual record:
Vezina voting: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 4th, 7th, 7th, 7th
1st Team All Star (1991, 1993)
2nd Team All Star (1995)
3rd Team All Star (1992, 1998, 2003)

His 1991 Vezina was over a prime Patrick Roy season.

Remove Hasek (#2 on our list and a European):
Vezina voting: 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 6th, 6th, 7th
1st Team All Star (1991, 1993, 1995)
2nd Team All Star (1998)
3rd Team All Star (1992, 2003)

Remove Hasek and Roy (#1 and #2 on our list):
Vezina voting: 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
1st Team All Star (1991, 1993, 1995)
2nd Team All Star (1992, 1998)
3rd Team All Star (2003)

Remove Hasek, Roy, and Brodeur (#1, #2, and #6 on our list):
Vezina voting: 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 5th, 6th
1st Team All Star (1991, 1994, 1995, 1998)
2nd Team All Star (1992, 2003)
3rd Team All Star (2000)

Remove all Europeans (but keep Roy and Brodeur):
Vezina voting: 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 5th, 6th
1st Team All Star (1991, 1993, 1995)
2nd Team All Star (1998)
3rd Team All Star (1992, 2000, 2003)

Remove all Europeans plus Roy and Brodeur:
Vezina voting: 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 5th
1st Team All Star (1991, 1993, 1995, 1998)
2nd Team All Star (1992, 2000, 2003)
3rd Team All Star (1994, 2001*, 2004)

*poor sample of votes

I'm not including seasons when Belfour only received a single vote. Third Team All Stars are obviously unofficial, but they are based off the same votes that determine 1st and 2nd Teams.

I'm not sure yet whether Belfour will be in my top 4, but if he isn't, he'll be close.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

But isn't there a huge drop off after Roy? And Isn't it telling that no one after Belfour is near up for consideration?

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I think it's easy to forget just how impressive it is to be the 4th best goalie of the era of the GM-voted Vezina Trophy. These are top goalies in Vezina shares since the Vezina was first voted on in 1982:

times = times a player received at least 1 vote from a GM
share = sum of seasonal Vezina shares

player|times|share
Martin Brodeur|15|5.4072
Dominik Hasek|11|4.7591
Patrick Roy|17|4.6216
Ed Belfour|11|2.5044
Tom Barrasso|7|1.9833
Grant Fuhr|8|1.5901
Roberto Luongo|7|1.5600
Tim Thomas|3|1.5533
John Vanbiesbrouck|9|1.5329
Henrik Lundqvist|7|1.4933

But Belfour's Vezina record is especially impressive considering the competition.

His actual record:
Vezina voting: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 4th, 7th, 7th, 7th
1st Team All Star (1991, 1993)
2nd Team All Star (1995)
3rd Team All Star (1992, 1998, 2003)

His 1991 Vezina was over a prime Patrick Roy season.

Remove Hasek (#2 on our list and a European):
Vezina voting: 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 6th, 6th, 7th
1st Team All Star (1991, 1993, 1995)
2nd Team All Star (1998)
3rd Team All Star (1992, 2003)

Remove Hasek and Roy (#1 and #2 on our list):
Vezina voting: 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
1st Team All Star (1991, 1993, 1995)
2nd Team All Star (1992, 1998)
3rd Team All Star (2003)

Remove Hasek, Roy, and Brodeur (#1, #2, and #6 on our list):
Vezina voting: 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 5th, 6th
1st Team All Star (1991, 1994, 1995, 1998)
2nd Team All Star (1992, 2003)
3rd Team All Star (2000)

Remove all Europeans (but keep Roy and Brodeur):
Vezina voting: 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 5th, 6th
1st Team All Star (1991, 1993, 1995)
2nd Team All Star (1998)
3rd Team All Star (1992, 2000, 2003)

Remove all Europeans plus Roy and Brodeur:
Vezina voting: 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 5th
1st Team All Star (1991, 1993, 1995, 1998)
2nd Team All Star (1992, 2000, 2003)
3rd Team All Star (1994, 2001*, 2004)

*poor sample of votes

I'm not including seasons when Belfour only received a single vote. Third Team All Stars are obviously unofficial, but they are based off the same votes that determine 1st and 2nd Teams.

I'm not sure yet whether Belfour will be in my top 4, but if he isn't, he'll be close.

So clearly, by this metric, Brodeur is far superior to Hasek and Roy.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

So clearly, by this metric, Brodeur is far superior to Hasek and Roy.

I really don't understand what you are seeing.

Brodeur has a slight advantage in Vezina shares over Hasek and Roy due to elite longevity in the NHL in the regular season. I think that when competition is considered, Belfour really stands out over the field. He faced much stronger competition than Fuhr or Barrasso - for all of his career, he competed against one of Roy, Hasek, or Brodeur, and usually it was all three. Belfour's NHL career started right when Europeans first started making a major impact in the NHL and right as the NHL began expanding from 21 to 30 teams. And Belfour was much better in the playoffs than Luongo.

But isn't there a huge drop off after Roy? And Isn't it telling that no one after Belfour is near up for consideration?

I honestly think Belfour is closer to Roy/Hasek/Brodeur than he is to any other goalie who came after 1990. The man won 2 Vezinas and was a clearcut #2 to prime Hasek for a third. Also, he was fantastic in the playoffs for Dallas. His career playoff GVT is second only to Patrick Roy, mostly driven by his years in Dallas. I do think that Ken Hitchcock has a history of making goalies look statistically better than they actually were, but that's still quite impressive. I definitely remember Belfour getting a lot of credit for outdueling Patrick Roy in the playoffs two seasons in a row.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I really don't understand what you are seeing.

Brodeur has a slight advantage in Vezina shares over Hasek and Roy due to elite longevity in the NHL in the regular season. I think that when competition is considered, Belfour really stands out over the field. He faced much stronger competition than Fuhr or Barrasso - for all of his career, he competed against one of Roy, Hasek, or Brodeur, and usually it was all three. Belfour's NHL career started right when Europeans first started making a major impact in the NHL and right as the NHL began expanding from 21 to 30 teams. And Belfour was much better in the playoffs than Luongo.



I honestly think Belfour is closer to Roy/Hasek/Brodeur than he is to any other goalie who came after 1990. The man won 2 Vezinas and was a clearcut #2 to prime Hasek for a third. Also, he was fantastic in the playoffs for Dallas. His career playoff GVT is second only to Patrick Roy, mostly driven by his years in Dallas. I do think that Ken Hitchcock has a history of making goalies look statistically better than they actually were, but that's still quite impressive. I definitely remember Belfour getting a lot of credit for outdueling Patrick Roy in the playoffs two seasons in a row.

I'm seeing Brodeur, then Hasek, then Roy than Belfour. What don't you understand?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I'm seeing Brodeur, then Hasek, then Roy than Belfour. What don't you understand?

That Brodeur's advantage is (to quote the post you quoted) "due to elite longevity in the NHL in the regular season".

Is that what you're missing?

(Regardless, neither Brodeur, Hasek, nor Roy are available for voting in this round).

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I'm seeing Brodeur, then Hasek, then Roy than Belfour. What don't you understand?

I didn't realize you were only talking about the Vezina shares table and not the rest of the post. Even so, I don't see how they are supposed to show that Brodeur is "far superior."

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

That Brodeur's advantage is (to quote the post you quoted) "due to elite longevity in the NHL in the regular season".

Is that what you're missing?

(Regardless, neither Brodeur, Hasek, nor Roy are available for voting in this round).

A ranking that is supporting Belfour as 4th best of his era seems flawed to me if it has Brodeur ahead of Hasek & Roy.

Prestty simple.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

A ranking that is supporting Belfour as 4th best of his era seems flawed to me if it has Brodeur ahead of Hasek & Roy.

Prestty simple.

You lost me at "far superior", if you're only using the Vezina Shares table.

Oversimplied may be simple, indeed. Can't argue with that.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

You lost me at "far superior", if you're only using the Vezina Shares table.

Oversimplied may be simple, indeed. Can't argue with that.

Brodeur is .65 above Hasek.

Belfour is .52 above his closest competition, Barrasso.

The point was being made about Belfour being clearly the 4th best of his era.

Oversimplied? OK, if you say so.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Brodeur is .65 above Hasek.

Belfour is .52 above his closest competition, Barrasso.

The point was being made about Belfour being clearly the 4th best of his era.

Oversimplied? OK, if you say so.

Vezina shares are only useful if you look at them in context. Brodeur is above Hasek because he had more elite regular seasons in the NHL in which he received votes for the Vezina trophy.

And as I already said, Belfour faced much stronger competition on average than Barrasso and Fuhr, the two guys under him.

 

[seventieslord]

A ranking that is supporting Belfour as 4th best of his era seems flawed to me if it has Brodeur ahead of Hasek & Roy.

Prestty simple.

look at it in the way you might look at "career points". tells you something about longevity and consistency, but says nothing about peak.

 

[quoipourquoi]

His 1991 Vezina was over a prime Patrick Roy season.

Though it might not have mattered in the long run, Patrick Roy missed a month of the season in 1990-91 during which the Canadiens had to rely upon Bergeron and Racicot, leaving him with just 25 Wins. His save percentage dipped to .906 in-between seasons of .912 and .914 (Belfour posted a .910).

And Belfour's Vezina votes and 2nd Team All-Star selection in 1995 are a little suspect.

15th in Save Percentage
3rd in GP
2nd in Wins
1st in SOs

After Hasek, there were really no good candidates for voting in 1995. Thibault and Osgood placed 2nd/3rd in save percentage, but played less than 20 of the 48 games. Moog and Vanbiesbrouck were 4th/5th, but both had losing records. Roussel was 6th, but played fewer than 20 games. Carey was 7th, but only played 28 games (and was tied with Belfour in Vezina voting). Burke was 8th, but had a losing record.

Count me among the people who don't believe in the value of voting shares.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Though it might not have mattered in the long run, Patrick Roy missed a month of the season in 1990-91 during which the Canadiens had to rely upon Bergeron and Racicot, leaving him with just 25 Wins. His save percentage dipped to .906 in-between seasons of .912 and .914 (Belfour posted a .910).

And Belfour's Vezina votes and 2nd Team All-Star selection in 1995 are a little suspect.

15th in Save Percentage
3rd in GP
2nd in Wins
1st in SOs

After Hasek, there were really no good candidates for voting in 1995. Thibault and Osgood placed 2nd/3rd in save percentage, but played less than 20 of the 48 games. Moog and Vanbiesbrouck were 4th/5th, but both had losing records. Roussel was 6th, but played fewer than 20 games. Carey was 7th, but only played 28 games (and was tied with Belfour in Vezina voting). Burke was 8th, but had a losing record.

Count me among the people who don't believe in the value of voting shares.

I don't think that the NHL GMs necessarily get the winner right every season, but I think that over the course of a player's career, the undeserved votes and undeserved snubs usually even out.

I think Belfour could have received more votes than he actually did in 2003 and in some of his Dallas years.

look at it in the way you might look at "career points". tells you something about longevity and consistency, but says nothing about peak.

Kind of, except you have to be good enough for one or more NHL GMs to consider you a top 3 goalie in a season to get any shares.

But you're right in that a 1st place Vezina vote is counted the same, no matter how far a goalie is ahead of the competition or what that competition is.

 

[ContrarianGoaltender]

I don't think that the NHL GMs necessarily get the winner right every season, but I think that over the course of a player's career, the undeserved votes and undeserved snubs usually even out.

I think Belfour could have received more votes than he actually did in 2003 and in some of his Dallas years.

I don't necessarily agree with that first paragraph, but I do think Belfour may have deserved more Vezina votes in several seasons. For example, I think he had a legitimate case to deserve the 1999-00 Vezina over Olaf Kolzig when you consider the home/road splits:

Kolzig: .928 Sv% and 27.2 SA/60 at home, .903 Sv% and 26.4 SA/60 on road
Belfour: .914 Sv% and 24.4 SA/60 at home, .924 Sv% and 27.8 SA/60 on road

It should be noted that Belfour was playing for a solid defensive team coached by Ken Hitchcock and backup Manny Fernandez had very good stats. However, 1999-00 was another one of those wide open Vezina years and Kolzig probably won largely because he had about 10 extra games played on the other goalies near the top of the list in save percentage.

The simplest case for Ed Belfour might simply be that it can be argued that he was pretty close to being Martin Brodeur with fewer games played, both overall and on a per-season basis. Belfour and Brodeur were similar in that both of them routinely had higher road save percentages than home save percentages, which suggests some shot undercounting at home, and they both had a likely effect on shot prevention (my estimate is about one shot prevented per 60 minutes played compared to an average goalie) because they were smart goalies who were good at handling the puck. The result is that although Belfour tended to have a few more peaks and valleys in his record, the two of them posted fairly similar career save percentage numbers overall:

Career road save percentage numbers vs. league average:

Belfour: .909 Career, .900 Avg, 12,126 SA
Brodeur: .915 Career, 906 Avg, 15,492 SA

Career GVT numbers:

Brodeur: 304.7 regular season, 56.9 playoffs
Belfour: 266.4 regular season, 71.2 playoffs

Career GVT Per-Game:

Brodeur: 0.27 regular season, 0.31 playoffs
Belfour: 0.28 regular season, 0.44 playoffs

Subjectively I thought Belfour and Brodeur were pretty close in the late '90s and early '00s. The gaps between goalies are narrowing as we go farther down the list, but I feel that there isn't really that much justification to rank Belfour too many spots behind Brodeur, so Eddie the Eagle is pretty much a lock to go in my top 2 or 3 (maybe even #1) this round.