Round 2, Vote 1 (HOH Top Goaltenders)

[Sanf]

It wasn't the numbers for Roy that were wrong though, it was Hasek's numbers that were as Sanf already corrected.
Though they still don't seem right to me and I included tourny games from each season for Hasek.

I have...
85/86 Hasek 54 (Roy 67)
86/87 Hasek 52 (Roy 52)
87/88 Hasek 42 (Roy 53)
88/89 Hasek 57 (Roy 67)
89/90 Hasek 48 (Roy 65)

Granted, I couldn't find any playoff games for the Czech league in the 80's and just assumed they didn't have them back then or they were already incorporated into Hasek's GP per season.

I counted all the international games like izvestia tournament and other national team games. My point was that the season structure is very different in Europe and the national team players (like Hasek) had tighter schedule and decent amount of games in season so the gap between games played in NHL wasn´t that big. The numbers wheren´t as high as I originally thought and it kind of backfired atleast a bit. And yes the playoffs seems to be counted to regular season games also.

 

[Hammer Time]

Plenty of what if scenarios the overlook what actually happened. In order as presented above.

1991 Hawks training camp was post 1991 Canada Cup where the Czechoslovakian team with Dominik Hasek as the #1 goalie wound up last:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Canada_Cup

Despite having a conditioning edge and game competition edge on the other Hawk goalies, Hasek did not get the job done and was again demoted.

1987-88 scenario - again was post 1987 Canada Cup and post 1986 and 1987 WHC. Hasek was not impressive early - Czechs wound up 4th in the 1987 CC and lost a 2-0 lead with Hasek in nets in the SF to Canada. 1986 Czech in the WHC failed to qualify for the Final round, 1987 finished second. Overall, nothing special early or late.

Set in Buffalo, familiar with the defence and forwards in 1994-95 Hasek played 10 of the first 12 games and produced a .943SV% in 4h/6A games.

Teams evolve over a season as do goaltenders. Which is why at times goalies can impress late in a season - Ken Dryden 1971.
This does not mean that the season opening roster was incorrectly chosen.

Disclaimer: This was before my time, so if anyone actually watched the 1987 WHC or Canada Cup and thinks differently please correct me.

Dominik Hasek's 1987:
- Best Goalie in Czech league, Golden Hockey Stick, Czech league champion
- At WHC, just needed a win on the final day against the USSR to win gold. Hasek was less than 10 minutes away from a 1-0 win, but Krutov and Stelnov scored late goals and the USSR won 2-1, giving the Czechs bronze. Hasek wins best goalie of the WHC.
- Canada Cup. In his two games against Canada, Hasek gave up 9 goals to Fuhr's 7. Given the disparity in talent, it seems like Hasek's performance is pretty equal with Fuhr's.

Hasek pretty much accomplished everything he could that year, short of shutting out the Soviets to win gold or stealing a win from the Gretzky/Lemieux Canadians. That's hardly unimpressive.

One cannot be certain, but to me it's a fairly safe bet that Hasek could have been an NHL starter in 1987.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

The case for Brodeur over Glenn Hall is pretty straightforward: If Hall has a regular season advantage over Brodeur at all, it's a small one - it's much easier to repeat as an All-Star when there are only 6 starters vs. 30 starters and Europeans. And Brodeur is quite a bit more accomplished in the playoffs, both from a winning perspective and a Goals Vs Threshold (which is based off save percentage) perspective. Hall has the one Cup in 1961, but I think overpass's research helps support the narrative that after 1961, Hall didn't quite play up to his lofty regular season standards in the playoffs, perhaps because he (and the rest of Chicago's stars) were overworked in the regular season. Hall does have the Smythe in 1968, playing under very unique circumstances (the starter of an expansion team that made the finals when 1 expansion team was guaranteed to make it - Hall helped keep all 4 games in the finals close, despite being swept). But Brodeur has his great playoffs performance as an aging player in 2012 now.

The case for Brodeur over Terry Sawchuk basically comes down to preferring Brodeur's 15+ seasons of very good play over Sawchuk's 5 seasons of dominant play plus 10+ seasons of up and down play. And even Sawchuk's 5 year peak wasn't without its warts - it includes arguably the most dominant single season playoffs of all time in 1952 and two very good performances in 1954 and 1955, but also includes two seasons where Sawchuk probably could have played better in upset losses in 1951 and 1953.

I know this board tends to be very reluctant to rank Brodeur over any of the big 3 from the Original 6. Would someone care to make the case for Hall and/or Sawchuk over Brodeur?

 

[Canadiens1958]

Why?

B. Defensive Talent

One situation in which it is natural to expect a team's best defensive players to be utilized is on the penalty kill. Without ice time statistics, the best proxy to estimate which players were used most often on the PK is to look at on-ice goals for and against. Here are the top four Canadiens forwards and defencemen in power play goals against on the ice (i.e. the likely #1 and #2 PK units) for each of Roy's seasons in Montreal:

1986: Carbonneau, Gainey, McPhee, DeBlois; Ludwig, Robinson, Green, Lalor
1987: Carbonneau, Skrudland, Gainey, McPhee; Green, Chelios, Lalor, Ludwig
1988: Carbonneau, Gainey, Skrudland, McPhee; Ludwig, Chelios, Green, Robinson
1989: Carbonneau, Skrudland, Gainey, Walter; Ludwig, Chelios, Svoboda, Green
1990: Carbonneau, Walter, Keane, Skrudland; Ludwig, Chelios, Schneider, Lefebvre
1991: Carbonneau, Courtnall, Skrudland, Keane; Svoboda, Schneider, Desjardins, Lefebvre
1992: Carbonneau, Gilchrist, Muller, Corson; Desjardins, Daigneault, Schneider, Lefebvre
1993: Carbonneau, Muller, Keane, Damphousse; Desjardins, Daigneault, Schneider, Odelein
1994: Carbonneau, Muller, Keane, Wilson; Desjardins, Schneider, Odelein, Daigneault
1995: Keane, Lamb, Brunet, Ronan; Racine, Daigneault, Odelein, Brisebois
1996: Koivu, Damphousse, Rucinsky, Bureau; Popovic, Brisebois, Quintal, Odelein

And here's Hasek in Buffalo:

1994: Hannan, Wood, Khmylev, Presley; Muni, Smehlik, Bodger, Moller
1995: Presley, Khmylev, Hannan, Plante; Bodger, Smehlik, Galley, Muni
1996: Plante, Peca, LaFontaine, Holzinger; Shannon, Galley, Zhitnik, Wilson
1997: Peca, Holzinger, Ward, Plante; Wilson, Zhitnik, Shannon, Smehlik
1998: Plante, Peca, Holzinger, Ward; Smehlik, Zhitnik, Shannon, Wilson
1999: Peca, Ward, Holzinger, Satan; Smehlik, Zhitnik, Shannon, McKee

Two things are obvious from those lists:

1. Roy had much better defensive players in front of him.
2. The quality of Montreal's defensive players fell off very dramatically after 1994, roughly around the same time that his save percentages did.

By 1996, the Montreal Canadiens' top six defencemen in the playoffs were Patrice Brisebois, Stephane Quintal, Lyle Odelein, Peter Popovic, Rory Fitzpatrick and David Wilkie. It shouldn't be surprising, given the talent loss, that the team's save percentages declined over time as well.

C. Shot Prevention

Roy's shots against per 60 minutes numbers reinforce the story of Montreal's gradual defensive decline from elite to mediocre (league average in brackets):

1985-86: 26.8 (31.0)
1986-87: 27.0 (30.0)
1987-88: 29.0 (30.4)
1988-89: 26.9 (30.4)
1989-90: 28.8 (30.3)
1990-91: 28.8 (29.7)
1991-92: 27.5 (30.4)
1992-93: 30.3 (30.9)
1993-94: 30.3 (30.2)
1994-95: 31.7 (29.3)
1995-96: 31.8 (30.2)

Note that when there is less parity around the league, as there was in the 1980s, shots against are generally negatively correlated with save percentage, i.e. lower shots against tends to mean it is easier to achieve higher save percentages. For comparison's sake, here are Hasek's shots against per 60 numbers:

1994: 27.7 (30.2)
1995: 30.3 (29.3)
1996: 35.3 (30.2)
1997: 32.4 (29.7)
1998: 30.6 (27.3)
1999: 29.5 (27.8)

The Sabres were a good team in 1993-94. That also happens to be Hasek's best single regular season save percentage relative to league average. However, all observers would rate his absolute peak as 1998 or 1999, which again shows how save percentage relative to league average is not an all-defining metric.

D. Defensive Effort During the Regular Season in the 16 Team League

I presented data earlier that showed that the gap between regular season and playoff save percentages was higher in the 1980s than at any other point in the official save percentage era. A possible theory for this is that since 16 of 21 teams made the playoffs, it was not necessary for many teams to give a full defensive effort every night. Here's Ken Dryden on the topic from the New York Times in May 1986:



Many teams likely saw the drudgery of defence as only mandatory in the playoffs, but some coaches would have been likely to demand a defensive effort from their players every night. Disciplinary, defence-focused coaches like Pat Burns. For example, Patrick Roy's monthly splits during the Burns years do not tail off towards the end of the year as happened to some goalies on other teams that apparently lowered their effort after securing their playoff positioning.

There were also differences between the divisions and conferences, both in terms of strength and style of play. Between the start of the official save percentage era (1983-84) and the end of the divisional playoff rounds (1992-93), the average save percentage in the Wales Conference was .882 compared to .879 in the Campbell Conference. That is not a huge gap, but over that kind of sample size and that many teams it is a significant difference, and reinforces the general perception at the time that the Wales was the more defensive conference.

E. Backup Goalies

It is tough to estimate exactly what kind of impact Montreal's defence had on its goalie numbers. Patrick Roy strongly outperformed his backups from 1991 to 1994, and much of that was surely because of his own terrific play, but at the same time it is difficult to assess how good the other goalies were as nearly all of them had no playing time outside of Montreal. It's quite possible that they were all replacement level goalies, or even sub-replacement level, particularly Andre "Red Light" Racicot and his career .880 save percentage.

Prior to 1991 Roy was platooning with Brian Hayward, and the two often posted similar numbers. Hayward was probably a decent goalie, but his Montreal numbers were much better than what he managed to put up in Winnipeg. Because of a series of trades between the Jets and Habs, three goalies (Hayward, Steve Penney and Doug Soetaert) all played for both Winnipeg and Montreal in the 1980s.

Hayward: .866 on 4833 SA in WPG, .889 on 3655 SA in MTL
Penney: .828 on 320 SA in WPG, .865 on 1906 SA in MTL
Soetaert: .869 on 3896 SA in WPG, .873 on 1155 SA in MTL
Combined: .866 on 9049 SA in WPG, .880 on 6716 SA in MTL

Winnipeg was not always a strong team and had to face the Oilers and Flames very often, so they probably were below-average in shot quality against. Yet even if we assume that half of the combined difference is because of Jets' subpar play, that would still represent a .007 boost to save percentages in Montreal.

As for Dominik Hasek, every study I've ever seen on the topic shows he outplayed his backup goalies by a greater margin than any goalie ever.

F. Team Discipline

PPOA = Power Play Opportunities Against

Roy in Montreal:
1986: 307 PPOA (1st), 370 Avg
1987: 304 PPOA (2nd), 344 Avg
1988: 394 PPOA (2nd), 437 Avg
1989: 326 PPOA (1st), 403 Avg
1990: 295 PPOA (1st), 367 Avg
1991: 282 PPOA (1st), 366 Avg
1992: 320 PPOA (1st), 402 Avg
1993: 427 PPOA (8th), 443 Avg
1994: 390 PPOA (9th), 407 Avg
1995: 191 PPOA (5th), 209 Avg

Hasek in Buffalo:
1994: 380 PPOA (5th), 407 Avg
1995: 220 PPOA (17th), 209 Avg
1996: 461 PPOA (23rd), 413 Avg
1997: 364 PPOA (24th), 336 Avg
1998: 413 PPOA (24th), 380 Avg
1999: 399 PPOA (24th), 359 Avg
2000: 361 PPOA (21st), 331 Avg
2001: 334 PPOA (5th), 376 Avg

Once again it is notable that Montreal was less disciplined starting in 1992-93, the year that Roy's regular season numbers started to decline relative to league average.

The NHL's tracking of special teams stats since 1998 shows that the average save percentage on penalty kill shots is around .050 lower than it is at even strength. Goalies that face fewer opposing power plays therefore face relatively fewer shots on the dangerous PK, which boosts their save percentage. The typical range for teams at extreme ends of the team discipline scale is a .002-.003 gain or loss on their overall save percentage compared to an average goalie.

To illustrate, let's look at Hasek's 1997-98 and compare it to Martin Brodeur the same year, as the mid-'90s Devils were a disciplined defensive team that took few penalties (3rd fewest PPOA in the league that year), just like the 1980s Canadiens.

Hasek: .946 at EV, .891 on the PK, .932 on the PP, .932 overall
Brodeur: .928 at EV, .868 on the PK, .915 on the PP, .917 overall

Hasek faced 22.2% of his shots against on the penalty kill, Brodeur just 15.2%. The average goalie faced 20.4% on the PK.

If we take Hasek and Brodeur's situational save percentages and apply them to the average goalie's situational breakdown (i.e. 75.5% at EV, 20.4% PK, 4.1% PP), Hasek's save percentage would improve to .934 while Brodeur's drops to .915. I think +.002 for Roy and -.002 for Hasek is probably pretty close to the impact special teams factors had on their primes (although it might even be higher for Roy, because his great Montreal PK units likely suppressed PK shots against much better than the average team as well).

In summary, Roy likely gained .002-.003 on his save percentage in Montreal compared to an average goalie because of special teams factors, and likely at least that much again because of the team's shot quality at even strength. He also may have gained around .003 compared to a typical goalie in the Campbell Conference, which would be .001 or .002 compared to an randomly chosen goalie leaguewide.

Dominik Hasek almost certainly lost a couple of points for facing more power plays than average in most of his prime years. He may have faced easier than average shot quality in 1993-94, but there does not appear to be much evidence of it for his other seasons.

Summary

Roy benefitted from a defensive style of play in Montreal, playing behind excellent defensive talent that took fewer penalties than average.

Overall, shot quality factors seem to have inflated the difference between Roy and Hasek's primes. The special teams numbers alone seem to suggest that the difference between them is understated by .004-.005. Factoring in the style of play differences at even strength and what Montreal goalies did on other teams, the true difference could be as much as .010.

As a result, while Roy was very good from 1988 to 1992, I think the evidence suggests that his performance was not on the same level as Dominik Hasek from 1994-1999.

Actually very interesting but one key question is omitted.

Hasek in Buffalo:
1994: 380 PPOA (5th), 407 Avg
1995: 220 PPOA (17th), 209 Avg
1996: 461 PPOA (23rd), 413 Avg
1997: 364 PPOA (24th), 336 Avg
1998: 413 PPOA (24th), 380 Avg
1999: 399 PPOA (24th), 359 Avg
2000: 361 PPOA (21st), 331 Avg
2001: 334 PPOA (5th), 376 Avg

contrast to Brodeur in New Jersey, Avg stays the same,rank does not matter.

1994: 376 PPOA
1995: 149 PPOA
1996: 319 PPOA
1997: 235 PPOA
1998: 309 PPOA
1999: 325 PPOA
2000: 313 PPOA
2001: 320 PPOA

Over an 8 season period, including the 1994-95 partial, the Sabres allowed 558 more PPOAs then the Devils

Why?

The Sabre teams had all the requisite data on a game by game basis. Reduce the PPOA to Devils team levels and Hasek's SV% projects to app .948 at ES but does this benefit the Sabres.

Answer comes down to May, Ray, Barnaby, Kruse - mid seventies Flyers lite, Michael Peca = Bobby Clarke lite, Coincidental penalties scramble the other teams lines at ES since they are not used to playing with mixed lines, they are less effective at ES - evidenced by the high ES SV%.Brodeur and the Devils faced scrambled lines a lot less. Peca can handle the #1 center like Clarke and the Sabres defense was similar to the Flyers defense. Hasek like Parent was the right goalie to complete the mix.Note that pre Peca and post Peca the PPOAs of the Devils and Sabres are fairly similar.

Like the Flyers the Sabres found their edge - scrambling the oppositions offence at ES, but the proper comparable then becomes Dominik Hasek and Bernie Parent. While Roy and Brodeur are left for another discussion.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Like the Flyers the Sabres found their edge - scrambling the oppositions offence at ES, but the proper comparable then becomes Dominik Hasek and Bernie Parent. While Roy and Brodeur are left for another discussion.

Interesting. We know for a fact that save % while shorthanded is lower than save % at even strength, so it generally follows that goalies who face lots of PPs are at a disadvantage in overall save percentage.

But you might be right that goalies who play behind teams that are involved in lots of PPs might have their even strength save percentages inflated.

1) First off, teams that get a lot of PPs are going to play their best offensive players more on the PP, which means less ES ice time for their best offensive players.

2) Second, is your point. Teams near the top in PPs against are usually near the top in PPs for. Brodeur and Montreal Roy in particular were at the bottom in both. And in penalty-fests, lines for both teams get scrambled. And scrambling the lines hurts offense more than defense - players are much more interchangeable when it comes to playing defense, as defense is based largely off learned skills, coaching, and systems, while offense relies more on natural skills, creativity, and chemistry with linemates.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Sawchuk vs Brodeur

The case for Brodeur over Glenn Hall is pretty straightforward: If Hall has a regular season advantage over Brodeur at all, it's a small one - it's much easier to repeat as an All-Star when there are only 6 starters vs. 30 starters. And Brodeur is quite a bit more accomplished in the playoffs, both from a winning perspective and a Goals Vs Threshold (which is based off save percentage) perspective. Hall has the one Cup in 1961, but I think overpass's research helps support the narrative that after 1961, Hall didn't quite play up to his lofty regular season standards in the playoffs, perhaps because he (and the rest of Chicago's stars) were overworked in the regular season. Hall does have the Smythe in 1968, playing under very unique circumstances (the starter of an expansion team that made the finals when 1 expansion team was guaranteed to make it - Hall helped keep all 4 games in the finals close, despite being swept). But Brodeur has his great playoffs performance as an aging player in 2012 now.

The case for Brodeur over Terry Sawchuk basically comes down to preferring Brodeur's 15+ seasons of very good play over Sawchuk's 5 seasons of dominant play plus 10+ seasons of up and down play. And even Sawchuk's 5 year peak wasn't without its warts - it includes arguably the most dominant single season playoffs of all time in 1952, but also includes two seasons where Sawchuk probably could have played better in upset losses in 1951 and 1953.

Would someone care to make the case for Hall and/or Sawchuk over Brodeur?

The various numbers and metrics, adjusted or not makes the Sawchuk vs Brodeur discussion extremely close. However There is one key element that tips the edge towards Terry Sawchuk. In a playoff series there is an expectation that the better goalie plays like the better goalie. The difference at the HHOF level is minute but should a HHOF goalie lose a series, especially an upset to a non HHOF goalie? O6 era Plante never lost a series under such circumstances. Sawchuk did twice - 1951 Gerry McNeil, 1953 - Jim Henry.

Brodeur - 1994, 1997 to Mike Richter, 1998 Damien Rhodes*, 1999 Tom Barrasso*, 2002 Arturs Irbe*, 2004 Robert Esche, pre lock-out only. Granted Richter and Barrasso might make the HHOF eventually but still to many first round exits* where the man did not play like "The Man". Not so with Terry Sawchuk.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Best Players

Interesting. We know for a fact that save % while shorthanded is lower than save % at even strength, so it generally follows that goalies who face lots of PPs are at a disadvantage in overall save percentage.

But you might be right that goalies who play behind teams that are involved in lots of PPs might have their even strength save percentages inflated.

1) First off, teams that get a lot of PPs are going to play their best offensive players more on the PP, which means less ES ice time for their best offensive players.

2) Second, is your point. Teams near the top in PPs against are usually near the top in PPs for. Brodeur and Montreal Roy in particular were at the bottom in both. And in penalty-fests, lines for both teams get scrambled. And scrambling the lines hurts offense more than defense - players are much more interchangeable when it comes to playing defense, as defense is based largely off learned skills, coaching, and systems, while offense relies more on natural skills, creativity, and chemistry with linemates.

Point #1. Consider the Bruins and the importance of a Wayne Cashman or a Terry O'Reilly to their PP and their ES. Removing a Cashman or O'Reilly during coincidentals or a 7 minute for 5 minute PPOA impacted the Bruins more. A Cashman or O'Reilly on a PP is hard to replace. Likewise ES.

Point#2. All that matters is the net benefit. The teams actual rank is moot. Team scoring more PP goals then they give up is what matters, the higher the + the better.

Key element is that the scrambling forces - Schultz, Saleski, Kelly, or May, Ray, Barnaby, Kruse very rarely killed penalties.Flyers and Sabres rarely had scrambled PK units as a result.Opposition was playing their scrambled PP against a regular PK.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

The various numbers and metrics, adjusted or not makes the Sawchuk vs Brodeur discussion extremely close. However There is one key element that tips the edge towards Terry Sawchuk. In a playoff series there is an expectation that the better goalie plays like the better goalie. The difference at the HHOF level is minute but should a HHOF goalie lose a series, especially an upset to a non HHOF goalie? O6 era Plante never lost a series under such circumstances. Sawchuk did twice - 1951 Gerry McNeil, 1953 - Jim Henry.

Brodeur - 1994, 1997 to Mike Richter, 1998 Damien Rhodes*, 1999 Tom Barrasso*, 2002 Arturs Irbe*, 2004 Robert Esche, pre lock-out only. Granted Richter and Barrasso might make the HHOF eventually but still to many first round exits* where the man did not play like "The Man". Not so with Terry Sawchuk.

The Devils were the lower seed when they lost in 2002 and 2004, so I don't know if those really count as upsets (Note: in 2002 NJ actually finished with a few more pts than CAR but CAR had the higher seed from winning their division, not sure how you want to handle this since CAR did get home ice advantage).


Also, the first thing I thought of when I heard this argument was that because of the NHL only being a 6 team league Sawchuk was facing HHOF opposing goaltenders a lot more often than Brodeur was, so raw numbers really don't apply very well. I'd rather see what percentage of the time each goaltender was upset when facing lower seeded non-HHOF opposition.


EDIT: I will take a look at their records and attempt to answer my own question


EDIT 2: 1994 NJ was also the lower seed...not an upset

 

[Canadiens1958]

Road Games

The Devils were the lower seed when they lost in 2002 and 2004, so I don't know if those really count as upsets (Note: in 2002 NJ actually finished with a few more pts than CAR but CAR had the higher seed from winning their division, not sure how you want to handle this since CAR did get home ice advantage).


Also, the first thing I thought of when I heard this argument was that because of the NHL only being a 6 team league Sawchuk was facing HHOF opposing goaltenders a lot more often than Brodeur was, so raw numbers really don't apply very well. I'd rather see what percentage of the time each goaltender was upset when facing lower seeded non-HHOF opposition.


EDIT: I will take a look at their records and attempt to answer my own question

1998, 2002, 2004 Martin Brodeur never won a road game against the like of Rhodes, Irbe and Esche or whoever may have subbed for them while losing a couple at home.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Here's what I found on what Terry Sawchuk did while being the higher seed AND facing a non-HHOF goaltender in the playoffs. This goes all the way until 1964, after which point he started sharing time in the playoffs.

1951: 0/1
1952: 1.5/1.5
1953: 0/1

Total: 1.5/3.5

Note: The series against Toronto in 1952 counts as a half because 2 wins were against a HHOF goalie and 2 were against a non-HHOF goalie.


The point here is it may sound good to say Sawchuk only got upset twice by non-HHOF goaltenders, but the reality is he was hardly ever in that situation, and when he was he lost at least half the time (more if you only count 1952 Toronto as half).

I will take a look at the numbers for Brodeur next.


Note: If you extend this to look at Sawchuk's whole career he gets one more series worth of losses to non-HHOF competition in 1968 and 1970 playoffs combined (.75 and .25 respectively). This makes his career total 1.5/4.5

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

The case for Brodeur over Glenn Hall is pretty straightforward: If Hall has a regular season advantage over Brodeur at all, it's a small one - it's much easier to repeat as an All-Star when there are only 6 starters vs. 30 starters and Europeans. And Brodeur is quite a bit more accomplished in the playoffs, both from a winning perspective and a Goals Vs Threshold (which is based off save percentage) perspective. Hall has the one Cup in 1961, but I think overpass's research helps support the narrative that after 1961, Hall didn't quite play up to his lofty regular season standards in the playoffs, perhaps because he (and the rest of Chicago's stars) were overworked in the regular season. Hall does have the Smythe in 1968, playing under very unique circumstances (the starter of an expansion team that made the finals when 1 expansion team was guaranteed to make it - Hall helped keep all 4 games in the finals close, despite being swept). But Brodeur has his great playoffs performance as an aging player in 2012 now.

The case for Brodeur over Terry Sawchuk basically comes down to preferring Brodeur's 15+ seasons of very good play over Sawchuk's 5 seasons of dominant play plus 10+ seasons of up and down play. And even Sawchuk's 5 year peak wasn't without its warts - it includes arguably the most dominant single season playoffs of all time in 1952 and two very good performances in 1954 and 1955, but also includes two seasons where Sawchuk probably could have played better in upset losses in 1951 and 1953.

I know this board tends to be very reluctant to rank Brodeur over any of the big 3 from the Original 6. Would someone care to make the case for Hall and/or Sawchuk over Brodeur?

I would say the case for Hall over Brodeur (especially regarding the playoffs) is that Hall played against better competition on a team that wasn't as good as Brodeur's.

The year Hall's Black Hawks won the Cup they ended the Canadiens 5 year Cup run. The Canadiens finished 17 points ahead of the 3rd place Hawks that year and scored 56 more goals than Chicago in a 70 game season. Chicago won in 6 games, Hall shuting out Montreal in games 5 & 6. I'd consider that better than any of Brodeur's playoff performances.

The next season the discrepancy was even worse and again Hall led the 3rd place Black Hawks over the first place Canadiens, again with a shutout in the final game (6). But this time they lost to the soon to be three-peat Leafs, 4-2. Facing Johnny Bower, Jacques Plante, Sawchuk or Worsley virtually every series in that era. This give you some idea of what the competition was in the 60s.

I would also dispute that Brodeur had a great playoff performance in 2012. The Devils had a great run but Brodeur hardly had to be great.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

The various numbers and metrics, adjusted or not makes the Sawchuk vs Brodeur discussion extremely close. However There is one key element that tips the edge towards Terry Sawchuk. In a playoff series there is an expectation that the better goalie plays like the better goalie. The difference at the HHOF level is minute but should a HHOF goalie lose a series, especially an upset to a non HHOF goalie? O6 era Plante never lost a series under such circumstances. Sawchuk did twice - 1951 Gerry McNeil, 1953 - Jim Henry.

Brodeur - 1994, 1997 to Mike Richter, 1998 Damien Rhodes*, 1999 Tom Barrasso*, 2002 Arturs Irbe*, 2004 Robert Esche, pre lock-out only. Granted Richter and Barrasso might make the HHOF eventually but still to many first round exits* where the man did not play like "The Man". Not so with Terry Sawchuk.

1994 was the epic playoff series between the stacked Rangers and the Devils, so I don't think you can fault Brodeur for that. Also, to the extent that Mike Richter has a shot at making this list, it's largely because of his 1994 and 1997 playoffs, so no harm in losing to him. Anyway, these are Brodeur's stats in series where the Devils lost early:

1997 vs Rangers (2nd round): 1-4, 1.53 GAA, 0.935 save%
1998 vs Senators (1st round): 2-4, 1.97 GAA, 0.927 save%
1999 vs Penguins (1st round) 3-4, 2.82 GAA, 0.856 save%
2002 vs Hurricanes (1st round) 2-4, 1.42 GAA, 0.938 save%
2004 vs Flyers (1st round) 1-4, 2.62 GAA, 0.904 save %

The only series you listed where Brodeur played poorly was 1999, which was arguably the best playoff series of Jaromir Jagr's career. In 1997, 1998, and 2002, Brodeur was great, but his team couldn't score. In 2004, the Flyers big forwards pushed the Devils' defense -(newly without Scott Stevens and Ken Daneyko) around like little girls. Brodeur's performance and stats in 2004 were actually pretty good, considering the Flyers owned the Devils' crease basically the whole series.

Brodeur played poorly for only 2 series losses before the 2004 lockout - 1999 1st round against Jagr and Pittsburgh, and the 2001 finals against Sakic and Colorado.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I would also dispute that Brodeur had a great playoff performance in 2012. The Devils had a great run but Brodeur hardly had to be great.

You're free to your opinion of course, but I think that everyone should evaluate your overall opinion of Martin Brodeur in light of this statement. I saw Brodeur both visibly and statistically outplay his opposing goalie in the first three rounds and hold his own with soon to be Smythe winner Quick until game 6 of the finals (when the wheels fell off the entire Devils team, including Brodeur).

Anyway, no point in arguing about something that should be so fresh in everyone's memories.

 

[Jabroni]

You're free to your opinion of course, but I think that everyone should evaluate your overall opinion of Martin Brodeur in light of this statement. I saw Brodeur both visibly and statistically outplay his opposing goalie in the first three rounds and hold his own with soon to be Smythe winner Quick until game 6 of the finals (when the wheels fell off the entire Devils team, including Brodeur).

Anyway, no point in arguing about something that should be so fresh in everyone's memories.

Okay, I agree that Brodeur was very good in this past year's playoffs, but I don't think he outplayed Lundqvist. By the 3rd round, the entire Rangers team was wiped out. The Devils just outplayed the Rangers.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Here's what I found on what Terry Sawchuk did while being the higher seed AND facing a non-HHOF goaltender in the playoffs. This goes all the way until 1964, after which point he started sharing time in the playoffs.

1951: 0/1
1952: 1.5/1.5
1953: 0/1

Total: 1.5/3.5

Note: The series against Toronto in 1952 counts as a half because 2 wins were against a HHOF goalie and 2 were against a non-HHOF goalie.


The point here is it may sound good to say Sawchuk only got upset twice by non-HHOF goaltenders, but the reality is he was hardly ever in that situation, and when he was he lost at least half the time (more if you only count 1952 Toronto as half).

I will take a look at the numbers for Brodeur next.

Same thing for Brodeur...

97: 1/2
98: 0/1
99: 0/1
00: 3/3
01: 3/3
02: 0/1
03: 3/3
06: 1/1
07: 1/2
08: 0/1
09: 0/1
10: 0/1
12: 2/3

Total pre-lockout: 10/14
Total: 14/23

Note 1: In situations where NJ had more pts than a team in the regular season, but were seeded lower I counted NJ as the favorite.

Note 2: Some of the more recent data could change depending on if guys eventually become HHOFers (e.g. Lundqvist, Quick)

Looking at things this way, Brodeur has a much better record than Sawchuk.


I don't really think this shows anything worthwhile as to who is better Brodeur or Sawchuk...The point was to show that the argument C1958 posted about Brodeur losing more times to non-HHOFers really holds no water.

 

[seventieslord]

You're free to your opinion of course, but I think that everyone should evaluate your overall opinion of Martin Brodeur in light of this statement. I saw Brodeur both visibly and statistically outplay his opposing goalie in the first three rounds and hold his own with soon to be Smythe winner Quick until game 6 of the finals (when the wheels fell off the entire Devils team, including Brodeur).

Anyway, no point in arguing about something that should be so fresh in everyone's memories.

In light of everything that has been presented in this thread, I am seriously considering Brodeur for 4th place, but I still don't think that this playoff was anything special for him. Aside from the fact that he did it at age 40, of course.

 

[Canadiens1958]

One Road Win

1994 was the epic playoff series between the stacked Rangers and the Devils, so I don't think you can fault Brodeur for that. Also, to the extent that Mike Richter has a shot at making this list, it's largely because of his 1994 and 1997 playoffs, so no harm in losing to him. Anyway, these are Brodeur's stats in series where the Devils lost early:

1997 vs Rangers (2nd round): 1-4, 1.53 GAA, 0.935 save%
1998 vs Senators (1st round): 2-4, 1.97 GAA, 0.927 save%
1999 vs Penguins (1st round) 3-4, 2.82 GAA, 0.856 save%
2002 vs Hurricanes (1st round) 2-4, 1.42 GAA, 0.938 save%
2004 vs Flyers (1st round) 1-4, 2.62 GAA, 0.904 save %

The only series you listed where Brodeur played poorly was 1999, which was arguably the best playoff series of Jaromir Jagr's career. In 1997, 1998, and 2002, Brodeur was great, but his team couldn't score. In 2004, the Flyers big forwards pushed the Devils' defense -(newly without Scott Stevens and Ken Daneyko) around like little girls. Brodeur's performance and stats in 2004 were actually pretty good, considering the Flyers owned the Devils' crease basically the whole series.

Brodeur played poorly for only 2 series losses before the 2004 lockout - 1999 1st round against Jagr and Pittsburgh, and the 2001 finals against Sakic and Colorado.

Still only one road win in the five series in question, 1999 at Pittsburgh and about 6 home loses.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

You're free to your opinion, but I think that everyone should evaluate your opinion of Martin Brodeur in light of this statement. We all saw 2012.

Did you see anyone else play?

I know the numbers never tell the story for Broduer, but once again, in the 2012 playoffs, 8th in save %, 7th in Goals Against. I guess every goalie was great.

.917 Save %, 10th best of Brodeur's career, below his career .919.

2.12 Goals Against, 9th best of Brodeur's career, above his career 2.02.

And everyone, please accept the opinion of the guy with Devil in his name as fact.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Okay, I agree that Brodeur was very good in this past year's playoffs, but I don't think he outplayed Lundqvist. By the 3rd round, the entire Rangers team was wiped out. The Devils just outplayed the Rangers.

Game 1: Brodeur 25/27, Lundqvist 21/21
Game 2: Brodeur 23/25, Lundqvist 24/27
Game 3: Brodeur 19/21, Lundqvist 36/36
Game 4: Brodeur 28/29, Lundqvist 26/29
Game 5: Brodeur 25/28, Lundqvist 12/16
Game 6: Brodeur 33/35, Lundqvist 26/29

First three games (Rangers 2-1):
Brodeur 67/74 0.917 save
Lundqvist 81/84 0.964 save %

Last three games (Devils 3-0):
Brodeur 86/92 0.935 save %
Lundqvist 64/74 0.865 save %

Overall (Devils win 4-2):
Brodeur 153/166 0.923 save %
Lundqvist 145/158 0.918 save %

Seems like the Rangers skaters got better as the series went along, but Brodeur also got better.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Game 1: Brodeur 25/27, Lundqvist 21/21
Game 2: Brodeur 23/25, Lundqvist 24/27
Game 3: Brodeur 19/21, Lundqvist 36/36
Game 4: Brodeur 28/29, Lundqvist 26/29
Game 5: Brodeur 25/28, Lundqvist 12/16
Game 6: Brodeur 33/35, Lundqvist 26/29

First three games (Rangers 2-1):
Brodeur 67/74 0.917 save
Lundqvist 81/84 0.964 save %

Last three games (Devils 3-0):
Brodeur 86/92 0.935 save %
Lundqvist 64/74 0.865 save %

Overall (Devils win 4-2):
Brodeur 153/166 0.923 save %
Lundqvist 145/158 0.918 save %

Seems like the Rangers skaters got better as the series went along, but Brodeur also got better.

How about a little honesty here.

Devils take 3-0 lead 23 minutes into game 4.

Devils take 3-0 lead 9:49 into game 5. Brodeur & Devils blow 3 goal lead.

Devils take 2-0 lead 14 minutes into game 6. Brodeur & Devils blow 2 goal lead.

So Lundqvist falling on his face is what makes Brodeur great?

 

[Canadiens1958]

Try Again

Same thing for Brodeur...

97: 1/2
98: 0/1
99: 0/1
00: 3/3
01: 3/3
02: 0/1
03: 3/3
06: 1/1
07: 1/2
08: 0/1
09: 0/1
10: 0/1
12: 2/3

Total pre-lockout: 10/14
Total: 14/23

Note 1: In situations where NJ had more pts than a team in the regular season, but were seeded lower I counted NJ as the favorite.

Note 2: Some of the more recent data could change depending on if guys eventually become HHOFers (e.g. Lundqvist, Quick)

Looking at things this way, Brodeur has a much better record than Sawchuk.


I don't really think this shows anything worthwhile as to who is better Brodeur or Sawchuk...The point was to show that the argument C1958 posted about Brodeur losing more times to non-HHOFers really holds no water.

Read my initial quote again

There is one key element that tips the edge towards Terry Sawchuk. In a playoff series there is an expectation that the better goalie plays like the better goalie. The difference at the HHOF level is minute but should a HHOF goalie lose a series, especially an upset to a non HHOF goalie? :

1961 Sawchuk got the edge on Cesare Maniago, splitting the first two games in Toronto then closed out the Leafs betaing Bower twice at home and once in Toronto.

View the complete quote then consider the evident gaps in your data and conclusion.

The idea is to win the series.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Did you see anyone else play?

I know the numbers never tell the story for Broduer, but once again, in the 2012 playoffs, 8th in save %, 7th in Goals Against. I guess every goalie was great.

.917 Save %, 10th best of Brodeur's career, below his career .919.

2.12 Goals Against, 9th best of Brodeur's career, above his career 2.02.

And everyone, please accept the opinion of the guy with Devil in his name as fact.

Averaging stats don't take into account the fact that Brodeur played his best hockey when the series were on the line. Brodeur's save percentages in 2012:

Florida games 1-3: 0.868 ,
Florida games 4-7: 0.950, including winning game 7 in OT when the Devils were outshot 45-36.

Philadelphia games 1-3: 0.905
Philadelphia games 4-5: 0.940
Claude Giroux's headhot in game 4 that got him suspended in game 5 game from frustration immediately after Brodeur's puckhandling killed a dump in.

NY Rangers games 1-3: 0.917
NY Rangers games 4-6: 0.935

There's a reason Brodeur was widely considered one of several Smythe favorites by the media if the Devils won the finals.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one, apparently.

Edit: I apologize for saying "we should all consider your opinion of Brodeur in light of what you think about his 2012 playoffs." That was an unnecessary cheap shot, and again I apologize. Just getting frustrated that you seem to think the Devils' team performance when they won 3 Cups had little to do with the players, and everything to do with The System. And now you seem to think the Devils as a team played well in the 2012 playoffs, but Brodeur wasn't impressive. Did any Devils player in the 2012 playoffs play well? Or was it just The System again?

 

[BM67]

The various numbers and metrics, adjusted or not makes the Sawchuk vs Brodeur discussion extremely close. However There is one key element that tips the edge towards Terry Sawchuk. In a playoff series there is an expectation that the better goalie plays like the better goalie. The difference at the HHOF level is minute but should a HHOF goalie lose a series, especially an upset to a non HHOF goalie? O6 era Plante never lost a series under such circumstances. Sawchuk did twice - 1951 Gerry McNeil, 1953 - Jim Henry.

Brodeur - 1994, 1997 to Mike Richter, 1998 Damien Rhodes*, 1999 Tom Barrasso*, 2002 Arturs Irbe*, 2004 Robert Esche, pre lock-out only. Granted Richter and Barrasso might make the HHOF eventually but still to many first round exits* where the man did not play like "The Man". Not so with Terry Sawchuk.

Year|GP|Min|W|L|GA|GAA|SA|SV%
1994|7|497:57|3|4|17|2.05|259|.934
1997|5|312:07|1|4|8|1.54|126|.937
1998|6|366:10|2|4|12|1.97|164|.927
1999|7|424:32|3|4|20|2.83|139|.856
2002|6|381:08|2|4|9|1.42|145|.938
2004|5|297:58|1|4|13|2.62|133|.902
Total|36|2279:52|12|24|79|2.08|966|.918

Only two series where you can even make a case for sub-par play by Brodeur, but even the 1999 series should have been a Devils win in 6 games but for a horrendous line change with 3 minutes to go.

This includes 3 of the 4 series in his career Brodeur has lost to a team that lost in the next round. The Rangers went on to win the Cup, while the Canes went on to lose in the final.

 

[Canadiens1958]

1970 Playoff St. Louis - Jacques Plante

After his New York Rangers days, knee injury, brief retirement with a cameo against the Soviet Nationals in 1965, Jacques Plante returned to the NHL for the 1968-69 season with the St. Louis Blues. Plante shared the regular season workload, mainly with Glenn Hall. Scotty Bowman managed both very effectively. Jacques Plante was sold to Toronto during the 1970 off-season.

Data culled from the HSP project and reference to BM67 post #123 this thread.

1970 Quarter Finals vs MINNESOTA

Game 1 - Home, MINN 2 ST.L 6,Plante (19/21) (4/11/6) first goal 20:19 (3-1)
Game 2 - Home, MINN 1 ST.L 2,Plante (17/18) (3/8/7) first goal 34:20 (2-1)
Game 3 - Away, MINN 4 ST.L 2, Wakely (27/31), first goal 4:56 (1-0)
Game 4 - Away, MINN 4 ST.L 0, Hall (31/35) first goal 37:42 (1-0).
Game 5 - Home, MINN 3 ST.L 6,Hall (18/21) first goal 1:38 (0-1)
Game 6 - Away, MINN 2 ST.L 4, Hall (32/34), first goal 4:56

Notes - 2PG game 1, 2nd period, 3rd period.

Jacques Plante SV%

1st period 1.000 7/7
2nd period .895 17/19
3rd period .923 12/13

Home & Series .923 36/39

1970 Semi Finals vs PITTSBURGH

Game 1 - Home, PITT 1 ST.L 3, Hall (24/25) first goal 42:10
Game 2 - Home, PITT 1 ST.L 4,Plante (23/24) (5/14/5) first goal 45:58 (3-1)
Game 3 - Away, PITT 3 ST.L 2, Plante (23/26), first goal 5:22 (0-1)
Game 4 - Away, PITT 2 ST.L 1, Wakely (49/51) first goal 7:06.
Game 5 - Home, PITT 0 ST.L 5,Plante (21/21) (6/4/11) shutout.
Game 6 - Away, PITT 3 ST.L 4, Hall (30/33), first goal 13:42

Notes - 2PPG , 1 - 1st period, 1 - 2nd period.

Jacques Plante SV%

1st period .952 20/21
2nd period .929 26/28
3rd period .955 21/22
Away .885 23/26
Home .978 44/45
Series .944 67/71

1970 Finals vs BOSTON

Game 1 - Home, BOS 6 ST.L 1,Plante 24:00 (13/14) (9/4/0) , first goal 19:45 (0-1) Wakely 36:00 L (16/21)
Game 2 - Home, BOS 6 ST.L 2, Wakely (29/35)
Game 3 - Away, BOS 4 ST.L 1, Hall (42/46)
Game 4 - Away, BOS 4 ST.L 3 OT, Hall(28/32) (8/14/9)


Jacques Plante SV%

Series .929 13/14

Note - 1970 playoffs Scotty Bowman really managed his three goalies, squeezing the most from each.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Conn Smythe

Year|GP|Min|W|L|GA|GAA|SA|SV%
1994|7|497:57|3|4|17|2.05|259|.934
1997|5|312:07|1|4|8|1.54|126|.937
1998|6|366:10|2|4|12|1.97|164|.927
1999|7|424:32|3|4|20|2.83|139|.856
2002|6|381:08|2|4|9|1.42|145|.938
2004|5|297:58|1|4|13|2.62|133|.902
Total|36|2279:52|12|24|79|2.08|966|.918

Only two series where you can even make a case for sub-par play by Brodeur, but even the 1999 series should have been a Devils win in 6 games but for a horrendous line change with 3 minutes to go.

This includes 3 of the 4 series in his career Brodeur has lost to a team that lost in the next round. The Rangers went on to win the Cup, while the Canes went on to lose in the final.

Explaining why Martin Brodeur is lacking in the Conn Smythe department.