Round 2, Vote 1 (HOH Top Goaltenders)

[seventieslord]

ld it be the NJ counts are closer to correct and everyone else overcounts?

that would still mean Brodeur was at a sv% disadvantage to everyone else, you realize.

 

[ContrarianGoaltender]

Is it even a possibility that the consistently great defensive team with a World Class goaltender usually get a lead at home and then strangle the life out of their opponents? Certainly its easier to cash it in on the road when a comeback looks hopeless. I know I've seen a lot of 3-1, 3-0, 2-0 third periods in NJ where the puck does not go near either net for long stretches.

I would say the numbers are unusual. But I would also say the Devils have been an unusual team compared to the norm for all those years. Remember, that 6 shot shutout in game 6 of the playoffs was in Toronto, not New Jersey.

Just to clarify, I was presenting a pro-Brodeur argument that was based on a few assumptions. I think it's important to be aware of the unusual home/road distribution of his statistical record, but I am still not completely convinced he was quite as good as his road save percentages suggest in those seasons, because of some of the caveats I mentioned at the end of that post and also because I somewhat agree with you that New Jersey may have been something of a special case.

I'm putting together some numbers that further explore the issue of New Jersey undercounting and hope to post them fairly shortly, hopefully it will spur some further discussion and help us get closer to a better idea of the magnitude of the effect.

 

[BM67]

I would say the numbers are unusual. But I would also say the Devils have been an unusual team compared to the norm for all those years. Remember, that 6 shot shutout in game 6 of the playoffs was in Toronto, not New Jersey.

No, it was in NJ. It was the 6th game in a series where Toronto had home ice.

http://www.flyershistory.com/cgi-bin/poboxscore.cgi?O20000226

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Would Stevens use as arguably the most dedicated shutdown defenseman of the DPE, combined with more favorable icing rules exacerbate the home/away shot differential to some degree, in addition to Marty's puck skills and the Devils' "home cooking?"

 

[Bleedred]

Both Jersey arena's have been known to under count shots. The Meadowlands, and Prudential Center. Not by a massive amount or anything, and I'm pretty sure if you count they shortchange both teams. Unlike a few arenas where they over count shots only from the opposition to boost the home goalies stats.

Still if Brodeur played say 36 home games a year, and was denied let's say 2-3 saves a game? that's between 75-100 shots a year not counted.

Won't argue to the death Brodeur is the best of all time. Just saying some people give him a hard time. System goalie, trap, gave up 5 goals in the SCF clinching game this year(Did you catch when Longoman gave up 8 in one game in the 2011 SCF? And was BRUTAL for much of the series and looked so pathetic he didn't deserve to be in the pipes?) Just saying.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Would Stevens use as arguably the most dedicated shutdown defenseman of the DPE, combined with more favorable icing rules exacerbate the home/away shot differential to some degree, in addition to Marty's puck skills and the Devils' "home cooking?"

All totally valid factors, imo.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Did you catch when Longoman gave up 8 in one game in the 2011 SCF? And was BRUTAL for much of the series and looked so pathetic he didn't deserve to be in the pipes?) Just saying.

What does Roberto Luongo have to do with the discussion?

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

that would still mean Brodeur was at a sv% disadvantage to everyone else, you realize.

Yes, I do realize that.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

No, it was in NJ. It was the 6th game in a series where Toronto had home ice.

http://www.flyershistory.com/cgi-bin/poboxscore.cgi?O20000226

Yep, the memory has failed me again.

In the Emily Litella voice, "Never mind".

 

[Rob Scuderi]

All totally valid factors, imo.

Would you mind explaining how?

I'm not sure how Scott Stevens or Broduer's puck-handling abilities affect the Devils' shot counts in New Jersey, but nowhere else.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Would you mind explaining how?

I'm not sure how Scott Stevens or Broduer's puck-handling abilities affect the Devils' shot counts in New Jersey, but nowhere else.

Guys like Stevens stand guys up at the blueline and make them dump it in. Guys like Brodeur make them actually game plan to dump it away from the net always, as opposed to occasionally tossing one in on goal occasionally to get the desired effect/result (rebound/miscommunication with defense/botched clearing/etc). Given how much dump and chase there was in the DPE, I don't find it hard to believe that teams were forced to dump it in more often against Brodeur and the Devils (especially at home), and that as many as 3 to 5 fewer "random easy dumps" that get counted everywhere else in the league as SOG rarely even occur vs Brodeur during one stretch of time because of his reputation as a puckhandler.

It's still hard to entirely reconcile the difference between home and away counts with this explanation, but I don't think it's unreasonable to think that there's a component of home-ice advantage working in there that doesn't involve simply (or entirely) mis/non-counting of shots.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Brodeur's puck handling

I'm going to bring up another factor as well, shot prevention. If you compare Brodeur to the backup goalies who have played with him for longer periods of time and played more minutes per game, he typically faced fewer shots against than they did. My estimate of the effect is one shot per 60 minutes against, based on comparing their New Jersey numbers relative to Brodeur with their shots against relative to other goalies on other teams. Overpass also once did an adjustment of New Jersey backups based on their strength of opposition that got a similar number.

The adjustment is therefore to add one extra save and one extra shot against to Brodeur's numbers per 60 minutes of play. The logic is that if Brodeur prevented a shot from happening that another goalie would not have, whether it was through puckhandling or by freezing the puck less often for defensive zone faceoffs (the two most likely factors, IMO), then he should be credited for that in his stats.

I understand the math behind the "Brodeur's puckhandling stopped about 1 shot per game more than an average goalie" - you compare the number of shots he faces vs his backups. But that just seems too low to me. Are you adjusting for the quality of competition?

Just looking at Brodeur's 4 Vezina years - he only failed to appear in 25 games between all 4 seasons.

These are the teams where his backup played the whole season, their overall spot in the standings, and offense based on goals. (Where does one find team SOG rankings?)

2003: Lightning (12, 13), Predators (23, 28), Leafs (9, 8), Leafs (9, 8), Ducks (11, 22), Sabres (26, 25), Flames (22, 27), Penguins (29, 26) Sabres (26, 25)
2004: Leafs (5, 4) , Penguins (30, 22), Capitals (29, 27), Penguins (30, 22), Capitals (29, 27), Penguins (30, 22), Thrashers (21, 13)
2007: Predators (4, 4), Bruins (23, 23), Capitals (27 , 19), Islanders (17, 12)
2008: Panthers (22, 20), Islanders (27, 29), Penguins (4, 7), Capitals (15, 9), Bruins (13, 25)

• The average team his backups faced was 20th in the standings
• The average team his backups faced was 18th in offense
• 16 of 25 (64%) of the teams his backups faced were below average in the standings
• 16 of 25 (64%) of the teams his backups faced were below average offensively

In my opinion, your estimate underestimates the effects of Brodeur's puckhandling advantage over other goalies in two ways:

1. It doesn't take into account the fact that his backups faced teams that were below average both overall and offensively
   
2. It doesn't take into account the puck possession and shots for created by his puckhandling. Brodeur was a vital part of "The Trap." The trapping skaters would prevent the opposition from skating the puck into the zone, leaving a dump-in the only option. When Brodeur killed the opposing dump in, he not only killed the ability of the opposition to control the puck in his own zone, he created an opportunity for his team to control the puck in the opposition zone. The Devils of the era did not have a lot of skilled goal scorers, relying instead of volume shooting to score goals. To put it statistically, a goalie who is excellent at puckhandling should improve the Corsi ratings of all the skaters on his team, especially without the trapezoid.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Side note: Kölzig was born in South Africa to German parents, but he moved to Canada when he was three years old and grew up there and learned to play hockey there. Yes, he decided to play for Germany in 1996, but for the purpose of this project he shouldn't be considered a European, his case is similiar to Stan Mikita for example.

Yeah, you're right. Kolzig is as Canadian (in training) as Stan Mikita. That's the season where the results are sketchy anyway, as Brodeur, Belfour, and Joseph were effectively tied for third behind Kolzig and Turek. I'll edit the post.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

The difference in shot counting between arenas

Running the numbers for both teams and Brodeur make it look like over 2/3 of the "missing" shots are on Brodeur's net. Are most of the "missing" shots happening at the end of the ice where Brodeur plays two periods of each game? Are the opponents twice as likely to try to pick the corner on Brodeur as the Devils are on their goalie?

The culture around the Devils between the lockouts was a "team of interchangable parts" and defensive perfection. Could the shotkeeper have been affected by this, as well, and subconsciously undercounted more for the Devils than the other team? I don't know. In the absence of a better answer, I think it's best to use the road save percentages only of goalies who have unusual splits.

So why does this unbelievable phenomenon occur?

Was the guy counting shots the same person over 13 years? Or was it a massive conspiracy?

Did he have a bad seat (apparently the only guy in his job title in the NHL to have one)?

Could it be the NJ counts are closer to correct and everyone else overcounts?

Did he hate Brodeur? Or was he a gambler winning sucker bets on shots on goal?

Is it even a possibility that the consistently great defensive team with a World Class goaltender usually get a lead at home and then strangle the life out of their opponents? Certainly its easier to cash it in on the road when a comeback looks hopeless. I know I've seen a lot of 3-1, 3-0, 2-0 third periods in NJ where the puck does not go near either net for long stretches.

I would say the numbers are unusual. But I would also say the Devils have been an unusual team compared to the norm for all those years. Remember, that 6 shot shutout in game 6 of the playoffs was in Toronto, not New Jersey.

The last time we talked about this, I posted this link by Tom Awad of Puck Prospectus: http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=351

It contains this explanation:

"As an aside, for those who think that the number of shots is a firm, objective number, I invite you to view this video.

How many shots do you count on this play? Watch it again. The game log, from Florida, says 4. In St. Louis, this would have been 2 shots."

Here's the video: http://video.mapleleafs.nhl.com/videocenter/console?hlg=20082009,2,799&event=FLA969

Note that St. Louis is another team that undercounted between the lockouts - Does this make Roman Turek look more deserving of being a 2nd Team All Star in 2000 than his officially recorded save percentage would indicate?

I don't know why there is such a reluctance to view the definition of a "shot" as subjective. We recognize that certain teams like Washington have a generous definition of "hits;" I don't see how the definition of a shot is any less subjective than the definition of a hit.

Guys like Stevens stand guys up at the blueline and make them dump it in. Guys like Brodeur make them actually game plan to dump it away from the net always, as opposed to occasionally tossing one in on goal occasionally to get the desired effect/result (rebound/miscommunication with defense/botched clearing/etc). Given how much dump and chase there was in the DPE, I don't find it hard to believe that teams were forced to dump it in more often against Brodeur and the Devils (especially at home), and that as many as 3 to 5 fewer "random easy dumps" that get counted everywhere else in the league as SOG rarely even occur vs Brodeur during one stretch of time because of his reputation as a puckhandler.

It's still hard to entirely reconcile the difference between home and away counts with this explanation, but I don't think it's unreasonable to think that there's a component of home-ice advantage working in there that doesn't involve simply (or entirely) mis/non-counting of shots.

You do a great job of describing the role of Brodeur's puckhandling in the Devils system.

But I agree with BBS. I don't see how Scott Stevens or the Devils system have much to do with why both the Devils and their opponents have significantly higher shooting percentages and lower save percentages when playing in New Jersey.

 

[ContrarianGoaltender]

It doesn't take into account the fact that his backups faced teams that were below average both overall and offensively

Here's the overpass post I referred to above:

Here are some numbers for the quality of opposition that Brodeur faced and his backups faced since 1999. I used the game logs at Yahoo Sports, which is why this only goes back to 1999.

Year | Brodeur | Backup | Diff | BrodeurOpp | BackupOpp | Diff | AdjDiff
1999-00 | 25.0 | 27.6 | -2.6 | 27.7 | 27.5 | 0.2 | -2.9
2000-01 | 24.6 | 22.5 | 2.1 | 27.7 | 27.8 | -0.1 | 2.2
2001-02 | 22.8 | 23.4 | -0.6 | 27.9 | 27.7 | 0.2 | -0.8
2002-03 | 23.4 | 21.8 | 1.6 | 28.4 | 27.8 | 0.6 | 1.0
2003-04 | 24.3 | 21.5 | 2.8 | 28.3 | 25.0 | 3.3 | -0.5
2005-06 | 28.9 | 28.2 | 0.7 | 30.4 | 30.2 | 0.1 | 0.6
2006-07 | 27.9 | 28.3 | -0.5 | 30.1 | 29.6 | 0.5 | -1.0
2007-08 | 27.0 | 28.0 | -0.9 | 29.4 | 29.1 | 0.3 | -1.3
2008-09 | 25.0 | 29.3 | -4.3 | 29.5 | 29.9 | -0.4 | -3.9
1999-09 | 25.4 | 25.6 | -0.19 | 28.8 | 28.3 | 0.54 | -0.72

Explanation of Table
The column Brodeur is his average shots faced per 60 minutes. "Backup" is his backup's average shots faced per 60 minutes. BrodeurOpp is the average number of shots per game in all games by the teams that Brodeur faced, and BackupOpp is the average number of shots per game in all games by the teams that his backup faced.

I believe the 0.65 shots per game decrease for Brodeur was calculated by BM67 and covers Brodeur's whole career. These numbers here are from 1999 on and show Brodeur to have allowed 0.19 shots fewer per game than his backups over that time.

Brodeur faced teams that took an average of 0.54 shots per game more than the teams his backups faced.

Add this to his shot prevention, and you get 0.7 shots prevented per game for Brodeur over his backups. If you want to add the 0.54 shots per game difficulty of opposition factor to BM67's full-career number of 0.65 shots prevented per game, you get 1.19 shots prevented per game.

I think 1.2 shots prevented per game is a reasonable estimate for Brodeur's shot prevention effect. This assumes that Brodeur's backups faced easier teams early in his career at the same rate they did later in his career, which I think is more than fair to Brodeur.

Granted, the data isn't a complete sample, and in the two seasons since the post Brodeur has continued to do pretty well relative to his teammates:

2011-12: Brodeur 26.04, Hedberg 27.08
2010-11: Brodeur 25.28, Hedberg 27.15

Perhaps that result should be revised up slightly, perhaps more if evidence suggests that he had an even greater impact before 1999. At the moment based on the data I've seen I think 1.0 - 1.5 shots against per game is a reasonable estimate. Note that this is compared to an average goalie. Brodeur's impact would be even greater relative to a goalie who has a shot creation effect, i.e. faces more shots against than his goalie teammates.

It doesn't take into account the puck possession and shots for created by his puckhandling. Brodeur was a vital part of "The Trap." The trapping skaters would prevent the opposition from skating the puck into the zone, leaving a dump-in the only option. When Brodeur killed the opposing dump in, he not only killed the ability of the opposition to control the puck in his own zone, he created an opportunity for his team to control the puck in the opposition zone. The Devils of the era did not have a lot of skilled goal scorers, relying instead of volume shooting to score goals. To put it statistically, a goalie who is excellent at puckhandling should improve the Corsi ratings of all the skaters on his team, especially without the trapezoid.

I agree that puckhandling may have a positive impact on shots for. Does anyone have some supporting data on that one that would help us estimate the effect? BM67, perhaps?

 

[Bleedred]

What does Roberto Luongo have to do with the discussion?

He doesn't, but I couldn't help but notice not too long ago people giving Brodeur crap for giving up 5 goals in game 6 of the SCF.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

He doesn't, but I couldn't help but notice not too long ago people giving Brodeur crap for giving up 5 goals in game 6 of the SCF.

Keeping in mind that we are debating the greatest of all time. The picking of nits is necessary.

 

[Bleedred]

Keeping in mind that we are debating the greatest of all time. The picking of nits is necessary.

Fair enough. If you wanna pick for that game, he gave up 5, and 4 goals in the 01 SCF in different games. That was without a doubt his worst playoff series ever. Can't say he cost us the series since we got shutout in both of those games by Roy. Roy had a very similar series in either 02, or 03. I think he gave up 6 against the Wings in 02 one game. All of the great goalies have had bad games though. A 43 year old Hasek in the 08 playoffs. Guys get older, and can't keep up that level of play.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Data Request: Does anyone know where I can find playoff Goals-Versus-Threshold for goalies? I'm mostly interesting in career playoff GVT, since I assume that individual season GVT won't look that much different from adjusted save percentages among goalies who made the finals.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Shot Counting

So know we have reports of New Jersey and St. Louis - Pronger era. Notice the connection, Scott Stevens and Chris Pronger, big physical,mobile defensemen, part of defensive units that tended to the big end of the spectrum. Such defensemen change the horizontal and vertical angles the offensive team is offered at the 4' x 6' net.

On the road both may have played a small number of games so the effect is not noticeable over a season though a look back at NJ and St.L appearances in each city may prove interesting.

The other issue with shot counting is that the counter is providing the best possible estimate of shots that would have produced goals if not stopped by a goalie.

At home, a big goalie that is an excellent puckhandler may get shorted on the count because he comes out - top of the slot/pre trapezoid and plays long range dribblers that in the opinion of the counter would not reach the red line. Anchored goalies handling dribblers in their crease get credit for such shots.

Shot counting is not exact. Counters use reference points and individual techniques while positioned at points that vary from arena to arena. Big / tall goalie that play upright tend to change the reference points for shot counting.

When Martin Brodeur and Roberto Luongo - two big/tall goalies played Midget AAA in Quebec their shot totals were lower because at their height it was fairly easy to determine if a shot they handled was on net or not. With 5'5"-5'8" goalies any shot they touch tends to look as if it is on net.

Regardless the counting aspect does not change the impressive road SV% > .925 that Brodeur has shown in a limited sampling of his career and the issue of his other seasons, other goalies and playoff is worth exploring.

 

[BM67]

The Devils have been known for giving up fewer shots and taking fewer penalties than almost every team year in and year out for all of Brodeur's career. It's not as well known that they have also been at or near the bottom in number of faceoffs per game since the stat has been kept.

The question is one of how much credit is due Brodeur for any of these factors to the "Devils System".

A look the Devils stats, taking the games where Brodeur played the whole game and comparing them to the games where he either didn't play or only played part of the game, and comparing the SOGF, SOGA, face-offs and PIM per game.

2011-12

Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM
Brodeur|55|26.95|26.36|52.89|11.60|B Home|33|27.70|25.61|53.18|11.45|B Road|22|25.82|27.50|52.45|11.82
Other|27|28.56|27.74|57.11|11.33|O Home|8|27.50|28.62|56.50|10.88|O Road|19|29.00|27.37|57.37|11.53

2010-11

Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM
Brodeur|47|29.38|25.32|50.13|9.04|B Home|23|30.00|23.70|50.26|8.04|B Road|24|28.79|26.88|50.00|10.00
Other|35|27.51|28.40|54.71|9.69|O Home|18|26.83|29.39|53.50|7.11|O Road|17|28.24|27.35|56.00|12.41

2009-10

Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM
Brodeur|70|29.84|27.00|51.71|10.47|B Home|39|28.54|25.33|50.97|10.33|B Road|31|31.48|29.10|52.65|10.65
Other|12|30.83|26.92|52.00|10.50|O Home|2|33.00|19.00|49.00|13.00|O Road|10|30.40|28.50|52.60|10.00

2008-09

Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM
Brodeur|28|35.14|29.68|55.03|14.75|B Home|14|34.00|29.57|55.71|13.64|B Road|14|36.29|29.79|54.36|15.86
Other|54|31.74|29.33|56.59|11.94|O Home|27|31.41|27.33|57.26|13.56|O Road|27|32.07|31.33|55.93|10.33

2007-08

Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM
Brodeur|73|29.04|27.44|52.03|11.78|B Home|39|29.10|26.46|52.00|11.41|B Road|34|28.97|28.56|52.06|12.21
Other|9|26.89|28.22|54.22|12.67|O Home|2|27.50|23.00|51.00|17.50|O Road|7|26.71|29.71|55.14|11.29

2006-07

Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM
Brodeur|76|28.74|28.28|52.50|9.45|B Home|38|27.79|26.00|53.16|9.82|B Road|38|29.68|30.55|51.84|9.08
Other|6|28.33|30.50|60.00|18.67|O Home|3|25.67|25.00|59.00|17.00|O Road|3|31.00|36.00|61.00|20.33

2005-06

Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM
Brodeur|69|29.29|29.12|57.01|11.45|B Home|33|28.79|27.15|56.79|9.91|B Road|36|29.75|30.92|57.33|12.86
Other|13|29.15|29.92|57.15|10.92|O Home|8|25.75|28.25|54.38|11.75|O Road|5|34.60|32.60|61.60|9.6

The years from before the lockout.

2003-04

Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM
Brodeur|75|29.56|24.63|59.77|10.59|B Home|38|28.55|22.61|60.21|11.16|B Road|37|30.59|26.70|59.32|10.00
Other|7|31.14|21.71|62.57|14.57|O Home|3|31.67|20.67|65.33|13.00|O Road|4|30.75|22.50|60.50|15.75

2002-03

Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM
Brodeur|71|31.85|23.68|60.65|12.10|B Home|36|31.42|22.31|60.28|10.97|B Road|35|32.29|25.09|61.03|13.26
Other|11|30.73|23.09|63.27|8.45|O Home|5|34.00|20.20|62.80|12.20|O Road|6|28.00|25.50|63.67|5.33

2001-02

Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM
Brodeur|69|29.58|23.16|63.16|12.70|B Home|36|28.08|21.56|61.64|11.19|B Road|33|31.21|24.91|64.82|14.33
Other|13|31.08|23.23|61.38|10.31|O Home|5|24.00|23.20|56.80|8.40|O Road|8|35.50|23.25|64.25|11.50

2000-01

Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM
Brodeur|67|31.67|25.27|64.37|16.36|B Home|32|32.09|23.94|65.75|14.97|B Road|35|31.29|26.49|63.11|17.63
Other|15|31.20|22.07|62.00|9.27|O Home|9|29.00|21.11|59.78|7.67|O Road|6|34.50|23.50|65.33|11.67

1999-00

Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM
Brodeur|70|33.40|25.19|62.94|16.54|B Home|34|33.88|23.41|62.62|17.41|B Road|36|32.94|26.86|63.25|15.72
Other|12|31.58|28.17|65.75|12.92|O Home|7|30.43|29.57|68.29|14.57|O Road|5|33.20|26.20|62.20|10.60

1998-99

Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM
Brodeur|70|31.10|24.74|62.77|17.51|B Home|33|31.67|23.00|60.61|16.09|B Road|37|30.59|26.30|64.70|18.78
Other|12|32.33|24.50|59.92|11.08|O Home|8|33.00|23.50|58.50|12.25|O Road|4|31.00|26.50|62.75|8.75

As you can see faceoffs per game are much higher than post-lockout.

Running totals: More SOGF in 8/13 seasons, fewer SOGA in 7/13, fewer faceoffs in 10/13, and fewer PIM in 5/13.

Total

Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM
Brodeur|840|30.26|26.00|57.63|12.60|B Home|428|29.87|24.46|57.27|11.98|B Road|412|30.66|27.59|58.01|13.25
Other|226|30.11|27.20|57.96|11.24|O Home|105|29.31|26.14|57.63|11.41|O Road|121|30.79|28.12|58.24|11.09

Post Lockout

Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM
Brodeur|418|29.33|27.56|53.00|10.95|B Home|219|28.92|26.06|52.97|10.51|B Road|199|29.78|29.22|53.02|11.43
Other|156|29.54|28.69|55.95|11.44|O Home|68|28.75|27.66|55.49|11.57|O Road|88|30.16|29.49|56.31|11.33

Before Lockout

Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM|Goalie|GP|SOGF|SOGA|FO|PIM
Brodeur|422|31.18|24.44|62.23|14.24|B Home|209|30.87|22.77|61.77|13.51|B Road|213|31.48|26.08|62.68|14.95
Other|70|31.36|23.87|62.43|10.80|O Home|37|30.35|23.35|61.57|11.11|O Road|33|32.48|24.45|63.39|10.45

Here are the Devils home/road GF and GA and SOG over the last 13 seasons.

Year|H GF|H GA|H SF|H SA|R GF|R GA|R SF|R SA
1998-99|123|102|1309|947|125|94|1256|1079
1999-00|133|92|1365|1003|118|111|1352|1098
2000-01|145|92|1288|956|150|103|1302|1068
2001-02|112|88|1131|892|93|99|1314|1008
2002-03|121|85|1301|904|95|81|1298|1031
2003-04|107|87|1180|921|106|77|1255|1078
2005-06|121|104|1156|1122|112|121|1244|1276
2006-07|101|93|1133|1063|105|100|1221|1269
2007-08|104|93|1190|1078|94|100|1172|1179
2008-09|134|97|1324|1152|104|110|1374|1263
2009-10|123|87|1179|1026|93|99|1280|1187
2010-11|92|100|1173|1074|79|107|1171|1110
2011-12|111|102|1134|1074|105|103|1119|1125
Total|1527|1222|15863|13212|1379|1305|16358|14771
T/GP|2.86|2.29|29.76|24.79|2.59|2.45|30.69|27.71

SV% are higher for both teams in Devils' road games with an additional 3.85 shots per game over the Devils' home average.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

So know we have reports of New Jersey and St. Louis - Pronger era. Notice the connection, Scott Stevens and Chris Pronger, big physical,mobile defensemen, part of defensive units that tended to the big end of the spectrum. Such defensemen change the horizontal and vertical angles the offensive team is offered at the 4' x 6' net.

On the road both may have played a small number of games so the effect is not noticeable over a season though a look back at NJ and St.L appearances in each city may prove interesting.

The other issue with shot counting is that the counter is providing the best possible estimate of shots that would have produced goals if not stopped by a goalie.

At home, a big goalie that is an excellent puckhandler may get shorted on the count because he comes out - top of the slot/pre trapezoid and plays long range dribblers that in the opinion of the counter would not reach the red line. Anchored goalies handling dribblers in their crease get credit for such shots.

Shot counting is not exact. Counters use reference points and individual techniques while positioned at points that vary from arena to arena. Big / tall goalie that play upright tend to change the reference points for shot counting.

When Martin Brodeur and Roberto Luongo - two big/tall goalies played Midget AAA in Quebec their shot totals were lower because at their height it was fairly easy to determine if a shot they handled was on net or not. With 5'5"-5'8" goalies any shot they touch tends to look as if it is on net.

Regardless the counting aspect does not change the impressive road SV% > .925 that Brodeur has shown in a limited sampling of his career and the issue of his other seasons, other goalies and playoff is worth exploring.

It's not just the home teams that had lower than normal shot totals in NJ and St. Louis - it was BOTH the home and road team.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

The Devils have been known for giving up fewer shots and taking fewer penalties than almost every team year in and year out for all of Brodeur's career.

Damn, forgot to mention disciplined play (especially at home) leading to fewer PKs and logically shots against. That's another good one. Lots of little factors which kind of chase the boogey man of biased shot counting out of the closet, although I wouldn't go so far as to say that the past counting in NJ is anywhere close to demonstrably "problem/inconsistency free".

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Damn, forgot to mention disciplined play (especially at home) leading to fewer PKs and logically shots against. That's another good one. Lots of little factors which kind of chase the boogey man of biased shot counting out of the closet, although I wouldn't go so far as to say that the past counting in NJ is anywhere close to demonstrably "problem/inconsistency free".

Not sure why this would have an effect. Devils disciplined play happened in both home and road away games.

The undercounting of shots (for both the Devils AND their opponents) only happened in NJ (and select other arenas). Even if the Devils played more disciplined at home than on the road - and from what I recall, the exact opposite was true as Lemaire sometimes criticized the team for getting away from the system by trying to entertain their home fans - how on Earth would it explain how the road teams in NJ also had lower shot counts and higher shooting percentages than outside of NJ?

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Not sure why this would have an effect. Devils disciplined play happened in both home and road away games.

The undercounting of shots (for both the Devils AND their opponents) only happened in NJ (and select other arenas). Even if the Devils played more disciplined at home than on the road - and from what I recall, the exact opposite was true as Lemaire sometimes criticized the team for getting away from the system by trying to entertain their home fans - how on Earth would it explain how the road teams in NJ also had lower shot counts and higher shooting percentages than outside of NJ?

Sure, but you don't think a "positive" reputation among referees for disciplined play combined with the pressure of make calls in front of the home crowd could manifest itself in the count somewhere? I dunno, it seems at least plausible that the Devils could have been called for far less "marginal" penalties at home than on the road. Enough to make up enough difference to "meaningfully" impact SV% stats? That also, dunno, but seems possible.