Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick #19: Jay O'Brien, C, MA-USHS --> Providence U

[FLYguy3911]

I remember Pierre saying Charlie Coyle was going to be a "Rockstar" around the time he was drafted.

 

[Flyerfan13]

80 pts in 30 high school games is that number high?

 

[FLYguy3911]

80 pts in 30 high school games is that number high?

Yeah. Best in the country, but after a certain point it's kind of meaningless. He was too good for that level.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I remember Pierre saying Charlie Coyle was going to be a "Rockstar" around the time he was drafted.

 

[Magua]

Yeah, since Price Pierre just gushes over everyone. Best way to play it!

 

[FLYguy3911]

Did you hear him say today that Montreal should have taken Kopitar instead that year?

 

[The Madrigal]

Best Pierre draft moment was when Luke Schenn was drafted by the Leafs.

 

[BillDineen]

I like the pick for the upside. Would have been really great if Hextall could have traded back and got another 2nd though.

 

[Magua]

Farabee pick was so obvious really, but this is the one I keep thinking about for obvious reasons. He looked like a reach based on consensus, but I'm sure he would've gone sooner than we think.....and who cares if he was their guy? But when they read it, after the initial shock, it was another pick that just made total sense with how they have drafted and are building their team. Like Frost last year: initial surprise, quick realization that it made all too much sense, at whatever the pick number. They always talk about their center to wing shit, but this is a player who I easily could see at RW too. More easily than Frost tbh.

In my limited watches, I could definitely see a player who has to improve his skating a bit and not hang onto pucks as long against higher competition, but they could have gone Lundestrom as the safer commodity filling a similar position. Or others. Even taking a not dissimilar Farabee (though he strikes me as a better passer and a little more calm) they took a chance on a player who has more skill and better hands, with a legit plus shot, than people think. As much as some guys who weren't just ranked above him but who were still taken above him, even at #19. Like he's a pretty safe bet to be an NHLer -- because of course, he's a Flyers pick -- but he's not a floor pick either with limited upside. You just don't get that hype bump playing only high school hockey all year long. I just love scout's scouts type picks, and the Flyers have done great with them so far, especially in U.S hockey.

 

[The Madrigal]

I dont ever remember pryor making a first round pick. Could that have been a pick he really pushed for?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

He looked like a reach based on consensus, but I'm sure he would've gone sooner than we think.....and who cares if he was their guy?

This is ultimately what matters most once you’ve made your board.

Consensus is a funny thing when what matters is only the top player available per each team’s criteria. It’s not like the NHL draft is predictable either. Some teams scout different areas more heavily than others, tape isn’t always available, etc. We had a clear top 1, 2, and 12. That’s about as far as I’m willing to extend consensus without delving into tiers of ~30-40 players.

It’s a fairly recent change in mental approach for me, but I would tell you that even Dellandrea wasn’t a reach or a bad pick. It was a scouting mistake. Taking him at 11 would have been a reach. The difference doesn’t matter for a message board post, but it sure does in an organizational evaluation.

 

[Boxscore]

I really like the O'Brien pick. He is loaded with skill and is just scratching the surface. Miller is the only other player I would have liked to see the Flyers take at 19, so I'm pretty jacked about this pick.

 

[Magua]

It’s a fairly recent change in mental approach for me, but I would tell you that even Dellandrea wasn’t a reach or a bad pick. It was a scouting mistake. Taking him at 11 would have been a reach. The difference doesn’t matter for a message board post, but it sure does in an organizational evaluation.

I feel you. It's a matter of perspective. To me it's a huge reach; a bad pick in the sense of harming the pick value and being frivolous with a scarce resource, though not for a bad player at least. I grant you after 12 was an evaluative mess. Yet, when we (me) sit here talking about a player in particular at 14/19 as "our" ("my") guy, it can look silly to another person. Getting that player trumps everything else in the end, even draft day value. Perhaps Dallas could've traded back, but we can't actually know. They think he's the clear-cut #13, they take him there confident he will prove them right. They would tell me I'm dead wrong about Dellandrea being a too safe, not high enough offensive upside player who seemed like an unnecessary, low reward gamble.

It's funny that I have compared Hayton and Dellandrea a few times for various reasons, and here we are with them in similar situations 8 picks apart. Coyotes take Hayton, not only top 10, but at #5 believing he really is Bergeron-esque. But I don't think O'Brien, while actually having similar attributes to his game as both, is quite at that level with them, and is a bit different scenario being under-scouted vs. OHL over-scouted. I'll briefly add that Arizona and Dallas (especially Dallas, who has made their version of the Dellandrea pick time and again and maybe management needs more introspection) aren't exactly the same level drafters as the Flyers.

Related, I like this idea floating, probably from people who just were surprised and unaware of him, that Jay is a "risky" pick. Reaches and risks go hand-in-hand for some people, but we know that's just not true. All 3 of these players are not risks. Serron Noel, who all the lay followers know and would've praised as the pick, is a risk. Just like Morgan Frost last year was still a safe player at #27.

 

[DKH]

the Bruins wept when Hextall called his name - they knew they’d have probably not got him had they still had 26.

Apparently there are no more secrets

 

[tictactoe]

in the draft full of dman we picked a low ranking forward... should of make a safe pick and safe pick....

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

From the main boards thread:

Pronman: He’s a skilled center who can create chances, but every scout you talk to about him will first point to how hard he works to win battles and gain pucks. Often at the fall classic he would shove players off him with such ease to win a puck. “His work ethic and drive to get better is as good as anyone I’ve ever coached,” Andrew Orpik his coach with the U18 Cape Cod Whalers

USA Today named O'Brien it's Player of the Year for high school hockey in the U.S.

Neutral Zone: O’Brien didn’t disappoint; he led the tournament in points with 11 in 6 games and was dominant offensively throughout. He’s a polished skater who can pull away from opponents in the neutral zone, he has a rocket release and can shoot to score in stride and with defenders in his face. His stickhandling and creativity with the puck is rare and he’s able to make a lot of opponents miss. Nobody in the tournament could match his skill set and he always had the puck on his stick and was a legit scoring threat every time he was on the ice. Dynamic, skilled, sharp shooting forward

From Mark Scheig after the combine who covers the Blue Jackets.

"....Speaking of the Blue Jackets, keep an eye on center Jay O’Brien. He’s a name that generated some buzz this week and could go in the first round. When I spoke to him, he admitted that not only did he meet with the Blue Jackets, he said they went to Thayer Academy “four or five times” this season to watch him. As they say, the Blue Jackets frequented his games. They want center depth. O’Brien is an excellent skater. He’s also the best prep skater available in this draft. This adds up. Let’s see what happens in Dallas now."

Just thought I would post it here since I know some of you avoid the main boards.

Mike Richards 2.0?

 

[Prongo]

I’m just gonna trust the flyers and like the pick. One thing I love is he is an excellent skater. We need more players ( pivots especially) that are excellent skaters.

Just keep adding speed to the lineup. That’s what we need to keep doing.

 

[Prongo]

I remember Pierre saying Charlie Coyle was going to be a "Rockstar" around the time he was drafted.

Well to be fair every player in McGuire’s eyes are rockstars and have all the potential in the world. Except Veleno. They didn’t like his upside lol

 

[Curufinwe]

in the draft full of dman we picked a low ranking forward... should of make a safe pick and safe pick....

No dman and no safe pick make tictactoe go something something?

 

[deadhead]

The only shame was they couldn't trade down, but the fact that Hextall believed that O'Brien wouldn't get past the early 20s (limiting trade down opportunities) says he was rated higher by scouts than the "media consensus" - which is what we're talking about when we say consensus - because most scouts don't leak their sleeper favorites to the media for obvious reasons.

 

[wasup]

My mother taught me : if you don't have anything nice to say don't say anything at all . So i'm shutting up about this pick.

 

[tictactoe]

The only shame was they couldn't trade down, but the fact that Hextall believed that O'Brien wouldn't get past the early 20s (limiting trade down opportunities) says he was rated higher by scouts than the "media consensus" - which is what we're talking about when we say consensus - because most scouts don't leak their sleeper favorites to the media for obvious reasons.

who rated him higher then 20? lol

 

[Curufinwe]

Button had him going #26 to the Rags. His mock wasn't bad, apart from his Flyers picks which were way off base.

https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-hockey-mock-draft-the-intrigue-starts-with-the-habs-1.1116064


NHL Draft grades 2018: Full results, analysis for every first-round pick

19. Philadelphia Flyers — Jay O’Brien, C, Thayer HS (Mass.)
The second of Philly's two first-round picks is a roadrunner who loves to shoot the puck. O'Brien is a tough competitor who hates to lose, and he can stickhandle around just about anything. He was the top high school player in the U.S. and is bound for Providence College. Grade: A

 

[Striiker]

in the draft full of dman we picked a low ranking forward... should of make a safe pick and safe pick....

 

[GKJ]

Sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't. Laughton is another example that didn't pay off... and Giroux was also a reach, kinda, and it paid more that anything we can hope for. High risk, high potential reward. As I said, I think we can afford it right now.

Laughton is in the NHL is he not?

That was also under Holmgren and not Hextall. Laughton wasn't even the target.