Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick #19: Jay O'Brien, C, MA-USHS --> Providence U

[Curufinwe]

I ****ing know where he ranked him..

But you can’t use google to find out your concerns about his skating and scoring ability are baseless?

 

[tictactoe]

Hopefully we trade up and get Samuelsson in 2nd or something... got to love what NYI did... kid of jealous

 

[BernieParent]

You aren’t getting impact NHL players for this coming season at 14 and 19.

Understood, and I know my grumpiness isn't based in logic, but the picks -- first, the fact that they made the picks and the players themselves -- just reinforces the thought / fear that the draft was just another feeding of long-term players into a prospect system that is getting a bit bloated in middle-line depth.

 

[NicolasAubeKubel]

This guy is impressive. Love this pick. Swing for the fences, USA guy, he kinda plays the exact same game as Farabee.

 

[deadhead]

Islanders were in the right spot in the right draft. It happens. We had even better luck last year.

I think Hextall went with "safe" with Farabee, not safe in terms of limited upside but safe in terms of Flyer intangibles. They know what they're getting, not elite talent but a good all around player who should be a fine role player with the potential to grow into a bigger role.

O'Brien is a gamble, there just isn't enough information to know how good he is until he gets to Providence and plays major college hockey.
Bellows was taken at #19 in 2016 and was more of a sure thing, but had a disappointing freshman season at BC, 34g 7-7 14.
So maybe O'Brien disappoints, or maybe he's a revelation when he hits college. Even "sure" things at this point in the draft aren't very sure.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

There aren’t 14 (or 19) players with reasonable top line upside. You’re talking about 3-5 in the average draft. That’s just not how it works. What people want is a player type. Big, big difference.

 

[NicolasAubeKubel]

Only disappointing thing is that it probably closes the door on Berggren

 

[sa cyred]

Seriously, anyone that wants to watch him, watch this video. He is playing with and against guys like Wahlstrom, Tkachuk.

This is a kid who has played high school hockey blowing past some really good talent (or looking on par with them)

 

[Jtown]

this was a 12 player draft and us and Dallas were left holding our ***** i would have easily packaged that 2nd to move up to assure up one of dobson or wahlstrom. The drop off after them was severe.

 

[Magua]

Courtesy of Hockey Prospect's Black Book, if I may, their lengthy write-up. They were one of his biggest fans and earliest supporters, and even they had him at #24:

Jay O’Brien was selected in the 4th round, 96th overall by the Youngstown Phantoms in the 2015 USHL futures draft. However, he’s primarily played with Thayer Academy, posting 80 points in 30 games. The Wise injury opened up a spot for him and although he was a late birthday, they selected him to join the team in the early pre-season games including the Fall-Classic and later against Michigan State on the USNTDP U18 team where he looked very impressive while putting up an additional 2 points in 7 games. What makes O’Brien’s situation unique is that his late birthday makes him ineligible to play in international tournaments like the Four Nations and the U18 World Championships so there’s a lack of international exposure there. He’s also slated to play for Providence College next season.

His addition to the USNTDP line-up was so seamless was due to his hockey-sense. He has excellent anticipation both with and without the puck, this allows him to find soft-ice and get into position before receiving passes at a consistent rate around the slot area and allows him to identify openings for transitional plays. His decision making is also very good due to his ability to process information on the ice rapidly, this allows him to create and be apart of give-and-go sequences with a high degree of execution. Above all else, his intelligence that he’s displayed has lead him to quickly adapting to a higher-level of competition. His hockey sense is also noticeable in the defensive-end where he’s good at intercepting pass attempts, he backchecks aggressively when needed and is willing to support his defenseman when the play calls for it on most sequences.

O’Brien’s a powerful kid whose developed an explosive first-step which he uses to surprise his opponents and beat them one-on-one when driving wide or when rushing the puck up the ice. His edges allow him to change directions quickly and create an element of surprise. His top-gear is good and he can use it to play a complete game by forechecking effectively and also being defensively responsible on the ice when the play is going the other way. His puck-skills are good, he’s got soft-hands and can utilize a variety of dekes to beat defenders one on-one or to bait an opponent into reopening a shooting lane where he can use his wrist-shot. His shot has a high-end release, he generates power and he’s good at shooting the puck in one motion, it’s not an easy shot for goalies to pick up. His passes have a high-degree of precision, he’s capable of threading soft-passes through tight seams on the ice and generates several quality set ups in our viewings. O’Brien is a well-rounded player with a level of versatility, his pacing can be difficult to keep up with and this makes him capable of making a forechecking play as well as a high-end play. One thing we really like about him is that there’s no area in his game that stands out as a glaring weakness at this point in time. When he stepped onto the ice for his first couple of shifts for the USNTDP, it was evident that he wasn’t a player who looked lost on the ice or got caught trying to do too much, instead there was a lot of confidence in his game, with each passing play that he executed properly you began noticing his presence on a shift-to-shift basis. He’s got a high compete level, plays a 200-foot game, and has a skill-set that we believe can translate to the pro level.

“The O’Brien kid looks like an ‘A’ player to me.” NHL Scout, September 2017

“We have him as an early 2nd rounder.” NHL Scout, February 2018

“I just saw him again and I’m back in the first round boat.” - NHL Scout, April 2018

“A hard working skilled center.” - NHL Scout, May 2018

“Starting at the All American Prospects Game I liked his game. I followed up with some viewings of him playing with the USNTDP and thought he was really good with limited ice. In his prep games he had more time and space and it allowed me to see his skill. He’s smart and although not huge, he has skill and works hard. I’m a big fan.” HP Scout, Mark Edwards

“He had a very productive combine for both interviews and on the testing floor. I spoke to him 1 on 1 after his testing and that conversation did nothing to change my draft ranking for him. He gave me a good self assessment of his game." HP Scout, Mark Edwards

In addition to that 3 game highlight sample, here's a 25 minute complete game video from late in the year on the Cape Cod Whalers. He's #9 righty center in green.

 

[bauer]

don't know a single thing about this kid, but i fully trust our scouts.

 

[Jtown]

Seriously, anyone that wants to watch him, watch this video. He is playing with and against guys like Wahlstrom, Tkachuk.

This is a kid who has played high school hockey blowing past some really good talent (or looking on par with them)

dropping that shoulder on hughes

 

[Winston Wolf]

Yes, the Flyers scouts have absolutely earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to off-the-board picks. Frost was a fabulous pick.

But, O'Brien is a long-term project at a time when many (most?) here thought it was time to step up and change the NHL squad. And he projects to be the same sort of middle-6 / middle-pairing player that is coming out of the Flyers' ears. He's small, feisty, and ... to me seems like another drop in a big bucket of very good prospects.

I want to be pleased. I think the best strategy is to forget about him and be pleasantly surprised in 3-5 years. Farabee is a pleasant surprise and I am chuffed with having him, but again he won't be pushing for a spot on the lineup for years.

Tomorrow is the 23rd. Hopefully, tomorrow will be about today and not just 3+ years from now.

He's obviously long term, but I don't think for a second that he's drafted with any thoughts of being a 3rd line guy. He's an unknown because of where he played most of the year, but they're definitely looking for a scoring line player here, no doubt in my mind. Honestly, who has a higher realistic ceiling among the guys picked after 19?

 

[Winston Wolf]

this was a 12 player draft and us and Dallas were left holding our ***** i would have easily packaged that 2nd to move up to assure up one of dobson or wahlstrom. The drop off after them was severe.

Who was trading down for a 2nd?

 

[EliteProvorovSanheim]

This should make the haters or fence straddlers appreciate the pick more. Watching the draft, NBC put up a graphic by Buttons suggesting the top 10 players
he expects to be major contributors in the NHL someday. O'Brien was his 10th rated player.

 

[CapnZin]

Many people may not like this pick- the only reason as to why that may come to mind is that they don’t know who he is.

Yes he may be a project- but he’s a very safe bet. Barrett Hayton like in terms of him being a safe bet on being a producer at the NHL level.

He may be 2 years at the minimum before breaking in solely due to his size and strength which is the same concern for Farabee.

He’s a scoring forward that has Konecny like grit... meaning he really just goes after the puck wherever it is to win it back. Not a big checker, fighter, or pest-like, but will annoy you with his defense.

This was one of the smartest picks in the draft. Sure he may have dropped a couple more spots, but he will be a better player than Veleno, Kupari, Lundstrom, and Noel. Y’all can mark my words for that.

I’m very happy with this pick. Didn’t know a lot about him or what he does come a day or two ago when I read an article saying that WSH, PIT, DET, and CGY were very very high on him and wanting to trade up to get him. That’s why Hextall may have been on the phone before the pick.

 

[CapnZin]

Hopefully we trade up and get Samuelsson in 2nd or something... got to love what NYI did... kid of jealous

Getting Dobson and Whalstrom made me droll. I’m very jealous.

 

[wankstifier]

The Flyers last selected a HS player in the 1st round in 1992--Ryan Sittler.

 

[Dumpster Flyers]

My initial reaction was disappointment, but I'm warming up to it. Seems like a high-risk, high-reward, high-skill pick, which I prefer to settling for some unexciting major junior player because he's more "proven."

 

[Jtown]

So this kid has wheels, but i don't know see what hexy is talking about in terms of " thickness" in the clips he got dominated physically and was able to be removed from the puck on contact. He will need to focus on that speed of his.

 

[Tripod]

this was a 12 player draft and us and Dallas were left holding our ***** i would have easily packaged that 2nd to move up to assure up one of dobson or wahlstrom. The drop off after them was severe.

You are assuming there was a dance partner. You think NYI wanted to gives us one of the guys who fell to them? Or the Oilers who had a RHD fall to their laps filling their biggest need because Kravstov and Hayton were taken earlier than expected?

Use some common sense. You are a smart guy.

 

[Laveuglette]

Yes, the Flyers scouts have absolutely earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to off-the-board picks. Frost was a fabulous pick.

But, O'Brien is a long-term project at a time when many (most?) here thought it was time to step up and change the NHL squad. And he projects to be the same sort of middle-6 / middle-pairing player that is coming out of the Flyers' ears. He's small, feisty, and ... to me seems like another drop in a big bucket of very good prospects.

I want to be pleased. I think the best strategy is to forget about him and be pleasantly surprised in 3-5 years. Farabee is a pleasant surprise and I am chuffed with having him, but again he won't be pushing for a spot on the lineup for years.

Tomorrow is the 23rd. Hopefully, tomorrow will be about today and not just 3+ years from now.

While I agree that the focus of the Flyers should be the present, or near future, it's no time to think about current needs in the first round. Look forward to July 1st to see if Hextall understands that he has an elite core that won't stay forever. You don't draft players expecting them to have an immediate impact, unless it's Crosby or McDavid. Projects aren't wrong choices.

 

[BernieParent]

You know I love you BP, but this really is a good pick. Players at 14 and 19 are not going to make the NHL right away. The Flyers can stash them away for abit. OB has the potential to be a top 6 scoring forward. His skill is unreal. His raw skill might even be better than Farabee. Reason scouts had him so low was because of not only the competition (sportsnet said he chose high school over USHL because each team would put players to fully focus on him and he had to learn to think even faster) but because they just didn’t see him enough. Almost every report says that’s why he isn’t high enough.

I am reassured that you have some knowledge of him and are so positive, Sa. It gives me some optimism for sure. Overall, today was such a tease and I am over-ready for some movement with the pro team. O'Brien to me is quantity; less now than when the pick was made, thanks to you, but still quantity. Future quantity at that. I'd be foolish to expect that the 19th pick would generate a potential roster player in 2018-19 or even 2019-20 or someone who would rocket to the top tier of the Flyers' prospect list. In truth, I don't even know what would be my hoped-for outcome with the pick. Probably that it was in the hands of another team in exchange for an NHLer.

 

[tymed]

I don't know anything about this year's draft class but as usual I'll save my judgement for some highlight videos where I can get my own eyes on them--they rarely fail me.

 

[Magua]

Magua.. say something..

Magua ranked him 29th.

I also wrote this about him: "There are a few players I didn’t do write-ups on, either because they’re top of the draft players and I had nothing special to contribute, or I had minimal viewings and did not feel comfortable blathering about them........to a lesser extent O’Brien.......though I did see game tape. I generally tried to rank those players conservatively."

I am not able to go around Massachusetts scouting HS hockey, so I only saw the videos posted already in this thread, along with the complimentary report I posted. Anyone can watch them and come to the same basis of understanding. But that's not the highest level competition. I wouldn't have ranked him there if I didn't like him though, small sample and all. I'm not hesitant to admit what I don't know, and he was more thought as an early 2nd, so I did my best. That HP write-up is better than anything I could write, but I find it pretty spot-on in my limited knowledge. I make no secret who I like and don't like.......this is a good pick. I just wasn't sure how much I liked him because I'm 1 person with limited resources. The Flyers have absolutely killed in their USHL/HS scouting. They rarely take them in the 1st round though, so you know how big believers they are. They not only have earned our trust, even off-the-wall picks, but O'Brien has the game to back it up.

In a draft without many centers, he's a projectable center -- or RW too. He has skill that pops in game footage more than I found from many consensus guys like Dellandrea or Thomas or Lundestrom. He has really slick and fast hands and can dangle players, along with a plus shot, with a crazy fast release. He's a 2-way energy player, but his skill shouldn't be slept on. That he and Hayton might not be drastically different in skill-set isn't crazy to me. Dellandrea was taken #13, and I had him 10 spots lower than JOB. He's an absolute terror though every shift with his motor and IQ. He and Farabee are close cousins in play style, in that Oshie-Parise mold. He's through and through a Flyers type. Similar size to Farabee, also needs to bulk up, probably could improve his stride power and burst, but it's smoother than Farabee's.