Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick 13: Jett Luchanko, C, Guelph (OHL) - 7/6 Upd: Signed 3yr ELC

[JojoTheWhale]

We are fighting now

The presence of Buium there sinks the whole process for me. If Buium had been taken and we got a Frost at 13, I'd be cool with that. Even if Buium busts out and Luchanko turns into Frost, that's just luck turning their way in a rare and twist that can't be reliably replicated. The process they followed and telegraphed well in advance was not ideal. I'd go so far to say it was not best practice.

We agree. The process sucked. That is written in stone. I just can’t relitigate it every time I discuss the player.

My point was really twofold:

1. Frost set a higher defensive bar than most people realize. Just that level of outcome for a guy with a much better rep on that end would be a positive outcome. I was attempting to use a guy I argued for over many years to set reasonable Luchanko expectations.

2. The average 13 OA has a tiny fraction of meaningful star outcomes. It’s also exactly why the Buium pass was apocalyptic.

 

[freakydallas13]

We are fighting now

 

[Beef Invictus]

We agree. The process sucked. That is written in stone. I just can’t relitigate it every time I discuss the player.

My point was really twofold:

1. Frost set a higher defensive bar than most people realize. Just that level of outcome for a guy with a much better rep on that end would be a positive outcome. I was attempting to use a guy I argued for over many years to set reasonable Luchanko expectations.

2. The average 13 OA has a tiny fraction of meaningful star outcomes. It’s also exactly why the Buium pass was apocalyptic.

The average NHL fan has excessively high expectations not just for top 10 picks, but top 15 and 20. When I am in charge everyone who wants to call a productive NHL player taken at 16 or what-have-you a bust will be required to check 15 drafts to see what success rates there are in those ranges.

 

[CerpinTaxt]

The average NHL fan has excessively high expectations not just for top 10 picks, but top 15 and 20. When I am in charge everyone who wants to call a productive NHL player taken at 16 or what-have-you a bust will be required to check 15 drafts to see what success rates there are in those ranges.

I did that recently with 27th OA picks between 97-17. Only 8 of those players you could consider notable, including Frost, and only 1 one of those players was actually elite. Wanna take a guess? 2008 27th OA John Carlson

 

[DancingPanther]

We are fighting now

I hate when mom and dad fight

 

[DancingPanther]

We agree.

Oh nvm

 

[FLYguy3911]

For the 2 millionth time, it's not about Luchenko the player, it's about Luchenko the concept. The Luchenko pick is just another symptom of the disease.

What about Luchanko?

 

[DancingPanther]

What about Luchanko?

Oh, is that how you spell it? Illustrates exactly how disassociated I've become from this stupid org

 

[scumpup]

Oh, is that how you spell it? Illustrates exactly how disassociated I've become from this stupid org

Okay to be fair it's in the title of the thread

 

[DancingPanther]

Okay to be fair it's in the title of the thread

Of course it is but that's like wayyyyy up there I can't see that on mobile unless I scroll and I frankly can't be bothered

 

[Magua]

We agree. The process sucked. That is written in stone. I just can’t relitigate it every time I discuss the player.

My point was really twofold:

1. Frost set a higher defensive bar than most people realize. Just that level of outcome for a guy with a much better rep on that end would be a positive outcome. I was attempting to use a guy I argued for over many years to set reasonable Luchanko expectations.

2. The average 13 OA has a tiny fraction of meaningful star outcomes. It’s also exactly why the Buium pass was apocalyptic.

Another topic for process. Some people wanted Helenius at center over Luchanko. He was probably the consensus forward? McKenzie had him 9th between Parekh and Iginla. He had solid pro production, certainly better on paper.

But if you want to argue that Helenius has an average athletic profile that might just project as a ho hum middle 6 center, and that Luchanko’s skating is a real upside plus, and their floors aren’t dissimilar, I think that’s reasonable to imagine a higher ceiling. That could be an instance of good process. I also think the Flyers overestimated Luchanko’s skill upside. Maybe I’m being generous too. The Flahr era has a fixation with floor picks. We’ll see in 7 weeks if the story is more of the same.

I agree with you that I can’t stomach much “X pick has Y % chance to play Z games.” What’s the board actually look like? Trading late 1sts for future late 1sts that might be 5 spots higher can be bad process (even with an extra pick). You chose to pass on specific names. That’s the story, and you’ll be judged by it.

 

[Rebels57]

Another topic for process. Some people wanted Helenius at center over Luchanko. He was probably the consensus forward? McKenzie had him 9th between Parekh and Iginla. He had solid pro production, certainly better on paper.

But if you want to argue that Helenius has an average athletic profile that might just project as a ho hum middle 6 center, and that Luchanko’s skating is a real upside plus, and their floors aren’t dissimilar, I think that’s reasonable to imagine a higher ceiling. That could be an instance of good process. I also think the Flyers overestimated Luchanko’s skill upside. Maybe I’m being generous too. The Flahr era has a fixation with floor picks. We’ll see in 7 weeks if the story is more of the same.

I agree with you that I can’t stomach much “X pick has Y % chance to play Z games.” What’s the board actually look like? Trading late 1sts for future late 1sts that might be 5 spots higher can be bad process (even with an extra pick). You chose to pass on specific names. That’s the story, and you’ll be judged by it.

One thing I definitely don't care much about anymore is consensus. These fat old boomer scouts get shit wrong every single draft. So taking Luchanko over Helenius, which contradicted consensus, doesn't bother me in practice. As you said, process is definitely more important.

 

[renberg]

These fat old boomer scouts get shit wrong every single draft.

It goes beyond scouts. Look at how many coaches and GMs get canned each year. It screams of stupidity being constantly unleashed across the league. If these guys are so bad that they need to be fired within three years or less, why were they hired in the first place?