Roster Speculation part XXII

[Der Jaeger]

Disco initially tried this when Bogo first returned to the lineup last year. He had McCabe/Bogo getting the tougher assignments and they struggled quite a bit. It forced him to switch Risto's pair back into that role after a relatively short period of time.

Maybe Disco will try it again this coming season with Kulikov/Bogo. It was certainly something he was thinking about last year

Agree. Right idea, wrong partner. I'm interested to see how it goes as well.

 

[joshjull]

Agree. Right idea, wrong partner. I'm interested to see how it goes as well.

The follow up to that would be where does McCabe go if Disco puts Kulikov/Bogo together. I know the initial reaction from most is to put him with Franson or Nelson or whoever on the 3rd pairing. But I'm wondering if they go they other way and put him with Risto. Then those two getting more O-zone starts and the Kulikov/Bogo pairing getting the heavier d-zone starts.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

The follow up to that would be where does McCabe go if Disco puts Kulikov/Bogo together. I know the initial reaction from most is to put him with Franson or Nelson or whoever on the 3rd pairing. But I'm wondering if they go they other way and put him with Risto. Then those two getting more O-zone starts and the Kulikov/Bogo pairing getting the heavier d-zone starts.

McCabe-Risto...

Although the more I think about it, if Kulikov-Bogo can do the heavy D-zone lifting...McCabe next to Risto might not actually be that bad. Risto should be able to cover for McCabe's growing pains.

 

[Jame]

so you're basically saying that we start to deploy risto like barrie/shattenkirk, no?

That could be a good idea, if we actually had another pairing with the ability to beat regularly top guys. Thinking bogo becomes that elite defensive guy or that a guy like scandella (who has never been in that kind of role) after acquiring him also becomes that kind of guy, is a really big stretch.

Many top d-man are deployed just like i described (doughty, weber, subban, suter etc.). The key is that those d-men play a ton. And that's what we should be expecting from risto as well.

2014-15

 

[Jim Bob]

And Vesey’s agent, Peter Fish, tells The Associated Press college hockey’s top player won’t rush into signing his first contract.

Fish expects Vesey to have discussions with "a handful" of teams, and doesn’t intend to make a decision until Friday at the earliest.

One team already in the mix is Buffalo, which acquired the 23-year-old’s rights in a trade with Nashville in June. Fish said Vesey has "a clear understanding" of what the Sabres have to offer and "pleased" with what team officials have done and said since acquiring him.

 

[Der Jaeger]

The follow up to that would be where does McCabe go if Disco puts Kulikov/Bogo together. I know the initial reaction from most is to put him with Franson or Nelson or whoever on the 3rd pairing. But I'm wondering if they go they other way and put him with Risto. Then those two getting more O-zone starts and the Kulikov/Bogo pairing getting the heavier d-zone starts.

I can see that, but I worry about McCabe and Ristolainen growing together. I'd rather Ristolainen lean on someone, and put McCabe on the third pair. Maybe with Gorges. I think let them grow separately.

 

[slip]

The way I see it, and knowing how Pegula and Murray operate, Buffalo set a high bar in the upcoming Vesey negotiations. We are all familiar with Buffalo's strong selling points, and coupled with Murray's strategic wooing of Vesey over the summer, I peg the odds of him signing in Buffalo higher than most. I really think it's close to a 50/50 bet. That's the power of getting into the negotiations first and forcing other teams to try to match or exceed our pitch. Well worth a third rounder, even if the bet doesn't pay off.

 

[Cirris]

Well, if 12:01 comes and Vesey announces he signed with anyone except the Sabres, HF boards could get ugly.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Risto reminds me of Pronger and Lidstrom in that he projects to his pairing's best offensive and defensive presence, but rather than doubling down on defense, he plays off a more mobile, less cerebral partner - Spacek, Carle, Rafalski, etc. McCabe could do that, especially if Disco uses Bogosian as a shutdown guy.

And Bylsma showing the willingness to experiment with Risto and continue until he's driving powerful on-ice results is more important than the specific adjustments. There are so many avenues to redistributing opportunity on this blueline that DB sticking to one static blueprint for a whole season, even if it encompasses some of the changes brought up here, is the wrong move.

 

[Djp]

nothing new here.... he said he wanted to talk to 4-5 other teams so you figure each takes a day then he decides between them, buffalo, and possibly nashville and decided over the wekend and signing on next Monday or Tuesday.

 

[Djp]

When are we going to start Roster Speculation 16/17 part I ???

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Great feedback, as usual. Thanks.

The point about 5D rotations is such a brilliant point, and actually something I noticed the Kings employed in 2014, where they double-shifted Doughty with Muzzin and Regehr while keeping Martinez at a distance. The version I always bring up are the 2013 Blackhawks, who ran out Keith/Seabrook/Hjalmarsson/Oduya/Rozsival when it mattered while Leddy or Brookbank cheerled.

 

[Der Jaeger]

The point about 5D rotations is such a brilliant point, and actually something I noticed the Kings employed in 2014, where they double-shifted Doughty with Muzzin and Regehr while keeping Martinez at a distance. The version I always bring up are the 2013 Blackhawks, who ran out Keith/Seabrook/Hjalmarsson/Oduya/Rozsival when it mattered while Leddy or Brookbank cheerled.

I remember Leddy glued to the bench versus the Bruins.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

The one thing I'd caution against doing something like going to 5D is we saw last year it looked like Risto hit a wall halfway through the season. He got fed big minutes and it took a toll on him as the season went on. Going to 5D for a short stretch (like the playoffs) is a different beast than trying it through an 82 game season.

 

[Heraldic]

Bolded: I disagree. So does jBuds.

Rest: we're talking past each other. I'm not suggesting that Ristolainen doesn't play a ton of minutes. I'm suggesting that he does log true #1 minutes. I'm suggesting that he logs true #1 minutes while having the Bogosian pairing take DZS and easing the QOC load.

Considering that Bogo really wasn't consistently even a good top-4 d-man defensively, it wouldd require him making major strides there - taking himself defensively on a level he hasn't really been ever on at least somehow regular basis.

I was one of those few posters back then who really didn't write him off or advocated to get rid of him rather than actually giving him another real opportunity while acknowledging the special abilities he is able to bring.

While that being said, I have never thought that he could reach that elite level. While everything is possible, it is quite a reach to expect that happen.

And "easing QoC" for Risto and actually having the bigger burden on QoC are two really different things.

Risto's QoC burden, d-zone starts and TOI in general has to be cut from last year, but that doesn't mean that the second pairing should or would take the higher burden.

Last year Risto's QoC number was around 1,4 and Bogo's around 0,6. What you should do, is to get the numbers closer to each other. Like 1,15 and 0,85, while giving Risto more o-zone starts (will happen also by just becoming a better possession team).

How many teams in this league you see that are able to give lesser role defensively on their legit 1#? Last season there probably wasn't any (maximum one, if you think that Burns is a legit 1# with a great two-way game).

Disco initially tried this when Bogo first returned to the lineup last year. He had McCabe/Bogo getting the tougher assignments and they struggled quite a bit. It forced him to switch Risto's pair back into that role after a relatively short period of time.

Maybe Disco will try it again this coming season with Kulikov/Bogo. It was certainly something he was thinking about last year

Let's not forget that at the start of the season Bogo was viewed as our 1# d-man. That probably didn't change on Disco's papers despite Bogo being injured. So I don't think the idea was to give your 1# d-man lesser responsibility defensively. I think that when Bogo was tried to take the bigger burden, he was considered to be the 1# d-man. After he struggled, Risto took that title for the rest of the season.

2014-15

Not really. His Rel QoC number (0.564) was about the same as Suter's (0.558). Actually his Rel QoC was 69th among all the defenders in the league (min. 40 games). I hardly call that a role where a player is taking a big responsibility against top competition. Guys like Carle and Hainsey got tougher match-ups. Hjalmarsson's number was 1.462.

Actually he got lesser match-ups than Bogo this past season. And he got only about 2-3 % more d-zone-starts than Bogo.

 

[Cirris]

So either he's really considering Buffalo; or he's being diplomatic and blowing smoke up our posteriors.

 

[TehDoak]

So either he's really considering Buffalo; or he's being diplomatic and blowing smoke up our posteriors.

We were rumored to be a destination before we traded for him. So, I think we're under consideration.

However, that being said, Boston offers him a chance to play for his childhood team.

Chicago offers him a chance to play with Jonathan Toews and contend immediately.

NYR offers him a chance to live and work in NYC.

Toronto offers him a chance to be yelled at by Mike Babcock and face a media scrum of 60 people who want to know why he hasn't scored 40 goals yet about 10 games into his career and have a columnists make up stories about if he likes a certain hot dog stand.

We offer him a chance to play with Jack Eichel and potentially be here as a contention window opens up.

It really depends on whats important to him.

I think one thing we as Sabres fans may have overlooked is, he is going to hit RFA the same time as Eichel and Reinhart. I'm curious if thats a negative for him, because he realizes that Eichel and Reinhart are going to get paid irregardless, and with O'Reilly and Okposo locked up long term...maybe him and his dad have done some napkin math and realized that they could be a cap casualty here.

 

[Jame]

Not really. His Rel QoC number (0.564) was about the same as Suter's (0.558). Actually his Rel QoC was 69th among all the defenders in the league (min. 40 games). I hardly call that a role where a player is taking a big responsibility against top competition. Guys like Carle and Hainsey got tougher match-ups. Hjalmarsson's number was 1.462.

Actually he got lesser match-ups than Bogo this past season. And he got only about 2-3 % more d-zone-starts than Bogo.

exactly.

Don't get lost in Mike Yeo rel

 

[haseoke39]

I think one thing we as Sabres fans may have overlooked is, he is going to hit RFA the same time as Eichel and Reinhart. I'm curious if thats a negative for him, because he realizes that Eichel and Reinhart are going to get paid irregardless, and with O'Reilly and Okposo locked up long term...maybe him and his dad have done some napkin math and realized that they could be a cap casualty here.

I've pointed this out before. I think your take is about right.

I don't personally see the fit. He has to beat out two of Ennis, Girgensons, Kane to get a top 6 spot. And I think most likely he knows where his top choice is anyways, and couldn't say so, now has to go through the motions to demonstrate good faith. He didn't quit on his NHL team when they offered him a top 6 spot in the playoffs - which was ridiculously fortunate for him - because he just fancied hearing some pitches, imo. He had to really want to be somewhere specific, and has for a year and a half, I'd wager.

 

[Jame]

I've pointed this out before. I think your take is about right.

I don't personally see the fit. He has to beat out two of Ennis, Girgensons, Kane to get a top 6 spot. And I think most likely he knows where his top choice is anyways, and couldn't say so, now has to go through the motions to demonstrate good faith.

or we go with 3 "scoring" lines and the Larsson line...

He didn't quit on his NHL team when they offered him a top 6 spot in the playoffs - which was ridiculously fortunate for him - because he just fancied hearing some pitches, imo. He had to really want to be somewhere specific, and has for a year and a half, I'd wager.

or he just didn't want to be in Nashville...

 

[jc17]

or he just didn't want to be in Nashville...

That's what I don't understand. I can't imagine what would cause a big opposition to Nashville.

 

[Zip15]

That's what I don't understand. I can't imagine what would cause a big opposition to Nashville.

Some guys want to be in bigger markets or "traditional hockey markets." He knew he could pick his employer, so he jumped at the opportunity.

 

[Zip15]

Isles are a new name, but should be somewhat expected. They should just carry in cardboard cutouts of Moulson and Okposo, and tell Vesey they can make him a very rich Buffalo Sabre if he chooses to first play with the Isles.

 

[brian_griffin]

I've pointed this out before. I think your take is about right.

I don't personally see the fit. He has to beat out two of Ennis, Girgensons, Kane to get a top 6 spot. And I think most likely he knows where his top choice is anyways, and couldn't say so, now has to go through the motions to demonstrate good faith. He didn't quit on his NHL team when they offered him a top 6 spot in the playoffs - which was ridiculously fortunate for him - because he just fancied hearing some pitches, imo. He had to really want to be somewhere specific, and has for a year and a half, I'd wager.

I disagree. Who is your 4th line if Okposo, O'Reilly, Reinhart, Eichel, and 2 of Girgensons/Kane/Ennis are in the top 6? Are you truly icing the most talented team if you're playing Nic Deslauriers over Vesey 70+ games this season?

As Jame noted, 3 scoring lines can be rolled.

More importantly, Vesey is much cheaper than both Ennis (whom we lack objective evidence can again play an NHL season, regardless of verbal proclamations), and Kane (who may be moved, if the opportunity presents). Murray is building a team which will ideally contend for many years. He would be foolish to eschew signing a cost-controlled and developed talent because maybe, just maybe, Bylsma would need to shuffle some lines.

In that regard, wasn't the Saad / Panarin scenario in Chicago similar?

Bottom line, Vesey just needs to fit in a situation he (Vesey) views as meeting his personal needs. He does not need to be more talented than Ennis (lower bar) and Kane (higher bar), regardless of whether he truly is or isn't.

 

[haseoke39]

I disagree. Who is your 4th line if Okposo, O'Reilly, Reinhart, Eichel, and 2 of Girgensons/Kane/Ennis are in the top 6? Are you truly icing the most talented team if you're playing Nic Deslauriers over Vesey 70+ games this season?

As Jame noted, 3 scoring lines can be rolled.

More importantly, Vesey is much cheaper than both Ennis (whom we lack objective evidence can again play an NHL season, regardless of verbal proclamations), and Kane (who may be moved, if the opportunity presents). Murray is building a team which will ideally contend for many years. He would be foolish to eschew signing a cost-controlled and developed talent because maybe, just maybe, Bylsma would need to shuffle some lines.

In that regard, wasn't the Saad / Panarin scenario in Chicago similar?

Bottom line, Vesey just needs to fit in a situation he (Vesey) views as meeting his personal needs. He does not need to be more talented than Ennis (lower bar) and Kane (higher bar), regardless of whether he truly is or isn't.

You're making an argument of what management or coaching could do to make Vesey fit. Vesey doesn't control any of those things. He looks at a roster and says, they have Okposo and Reinhart on RW. They have Kane, Ennis, and Girgensons all potentially on LW. How am I sure I'd get top 6 opportunities. And he compares that to his competition in Chicago.