Roster Speculation part XXII

[Aladyyn]

Risto and girgs news has been awfully quiet....

Better than worrying rumors like Trouba...

 

[jc17]

Murray signed him, so I assume he likes him

Good point haha.

Unless he knows there's a market for puck moving defensemen and wants him just to trade him later.

 

[Reddawg]

They couldn't do this with NCAA players. It would have to be on the players own dime.

That's exactly what I was saying. College players can't accept anything from pro clubs while maintaining eligibility. It's asinine.

 

[joshjull]

Oh that's right...people here don't think Bogo is worse than McCabe already is. I always forget.

Aside from saying you think McCabe is better than Bogo. I don't quite get what your point is if this is a response to struck's preceding post.

 

[Aladyyn]

Good Bogo is better than Good McCabe
Good McCabe is better than Bad Bogo
Bad Bogo and Bad McCabe both suck

 

[Der Jaeger]

Re: Bogosian

With Ristolainen and Bogosian, the Sabres really need two defensively oriented LHD to compliment them. Kulikov works, and eventually Guhle does as well. That sets up a McCabe - Nelson/puck mover as a third pair. This set up is all longer term, after Gorges and Franson move on.

None of those pairings really works as a shutdown pair. I think Ristolainen could really benefit from a shutdown pairing, freeing him up to play against easier competition.

What if Bogosian did a Scott Stevens?

I remember Stevens in his last years with the Caps, year with the Blues, and first few seasons with the Devils. He was putting away 10+ goals almost every season. Then during their first Cup season, he seemed to flip the switch from two-way to shutdown defender with Ken Daneyko.

Stevens made that switch at 30 years old. I get that it also aligned with the beginning of the dead puck era, and the Devils were a large part of that. But he did change his role for the team.

Could Bogosian do it?

He's big and mobile. Hes got the talent. He's got that scary quality that Stevens had. And he seems like a team guy that would do it if asked.

Kulikov - Bogosian could play against tough QOC and focus on punishing forwards, gaining possession, and getting the puck to their forwards. That enables Ristolainen, and allows the Sabres to keep a puck mover like Nelson on the bottom pair.

Thoughts? (jBuds, looking at you)

 

[brian_griffin]

With Ristolainen and Bogosian, the Sabres really need two defensively oriented LHD to compliment them. Kulikov works, and eventually Guhle does as well. That sets up a McCabe - Nelson/puck mover as a third pair. This set up is all longer term, after Gorges and Franson move on.

None of those pairings really works as a shutdown pair. I think Ristolainen could really benefit from a shutdown pairing, freeing him up to play against easier competition.

What if Bogosian did a Scott Stevens?

I remember Stevens in his last years with the Caps, year with the Blues, and first few seasons with the Devils. He was putting away 10+ goals almost every season. Then during their first Cup season, he seemed to flip the switch from two-way to shutdown defender with Ken Daneyko.

Stevens made that switch at 30 years old. I get that it also aligned with the beginning of the dead puck era, and the Devils were a large part of that. But he did change his role for the team.

Could Bogosian do it?

He's big and mobile. Hes got the talent. He's got that scary quality that Stevens had. And he seems like a team guy that would do it if asked.

Kulikov - Bogosian could play against tough QOC and focus on punishing forwards, gaining possession, and getting the puck to their forwards. That enables Ristolainen, and allows the Sabres to keep a puck mover like Nelson on the bottom pair.

Thoughts? (jBuds, looking at you)

It's an interesting thought. My memory of Scott Stevens is of a player with an incredibly solid lower body base / center of gravity who was world-class in using that against opponents coming through the neutral zone (back when the neutral zone was larger). I don't know if Bogo has that style (yet), but I agree he has enough skating skill.

Zhitnik was far closer to that Stevens-style, IMO, of former Sabres (and to a lesser extent also Richie Dunn).

To the underlying premise, I'd personally wait to see a year of Ristolainen-Kulikov before deciding they were not a suitable shutdown pair.

 

[Der Jaeger]

It's an interesting thought. My memory of Scott Stevens is of a player with an incredibly solid lower body base / center of gravity who was world-class in using that against opponents coming through the neutral zone (back when the neutral zone was larger). I don't know if Bogo has that style (yet), but I agree he has enough skating skill.

Zhitnik was far closer to that Stevens-style, IMO, of former Sabres (and to a lesser extent also Richie Dunn).

To the underlying premise, I'd personally wait to see a year of Ristolainen-Kulikov before deciding they were not a suitable shutdown pair.

What if Bylsma didn't try to make Kulikov - Ristolainen into a shutdown pair? What if GMTM swung a trade for another defensively responsible LHD, and let Bogosian be the shutdown defender?

(I'll use Scandella as the traded for LHD, for illustrative purposes)

Kulikov - Ristolainen (two-way pair, moderate-to-high QOC, even-to-high OZS)
Scandella - Bogosian (shutdown pair, high QOC, high DZS)
McCabe - Nelson (lowest QOC, even-to-high OZS)

Ristolainen and Nelson on the PP.

 

[Jame]

[/B]

What if Bylsma didn't try to make Kulikov - Ristolainen into a shutdown pair? What if GMTM swung a trade for another defensively responsible LHD, and let Bogosian be the shutdown defender?

(I'll use Scandella as the traded for LHD, for illustrative purposes)

Kulikov - Ristolainen (two-way pair, moderate-to-high QOC, even-to-OZS zone)
Scandella - Bogosian (shutdown pair, high QOC, high DZS)
McCabe - Nelson (lowest QOC, even-to-high OZS)

Ristolainen and Nelson on the PP.

 

[Heraldic]

What if Bylsma didn't try to make Kulikov - Ristolainen into a shutdown pair? What if GMTM swung a trade for another defensively responsible LHD, and let Bogosian be the shutdown defender?

(I'll use Scandella as the traded for LHD, for illustrative purposes)

Kulikov - Ristolainen (two-way pair, moderate-to-high QOC, even-to-OZS zone)
Scandella - Bogosian (shutdown pair, high QOC, high DZS)
McCabe - Nelson (lowest QOC, even-to-high OZS)

Ristolainen and Nelson on the PP.

I think this is getting a bit ahead of ourselves. I mean, there really is no reason yet to think that Risto won't be defensively good enough to regularly play against top teams and also beat them GF and Corsi wise. We also have no idea will Bogo actually find consistency to be the defensive player we have seen glimpses of.

I also think this zone-start aspect gets a bit overblown in this context (if we're thinking percents). I mean, as we all expect our team to improve greatly puck possession wise, it also means that we will start A LOT more on o-zone as a team. This automatically means more o-zone-starts.

I also think that not many teams have the luxury of having second pairing of shutdown d-men who do a great job against opponent's top opponents regularly. It's not common at all to have Vlasic or Hjalmarsson on your second pairing.

I think that ideally you have a first pairing that basically can play successfully any role against any opponent. They would get most o-zone-starts but also highest QoC. You should play your best pairing as much as possible, and this enables it.

Your second pairing would be more defensive oriented, and would take the biggest chunk of d-zone starts (generally no matter the opponent). The goal is not to shutdown top opponent's, the goal is to enable your first pairing to get more o-zone-starts and shelter the third-pairing.

Your third-pairing then would get the rest of the minutes. This basically would mean relatively lot o-zone minutes and easier opponents - automatically.

There isn't a gigantic difference compared to your view, but IMO there is a really big difference how you view your first pairing.

Basically this could mean that if McCabe (not likely) or Guhle could develop into a quality two-way player (not necessary legit top-pairing) and Risto establishes himself as a legit 1# the pairings could be:

Guhle/McCabe - Risto
Kulikov - Bogo
Guhle/McCabe - Nelson

Of course, if Risto never develops there, we might need to find a pairing that is actually able to play effective defensive game against top opponents. But that situation might become pretty problematic, because we probably won't find Vlasic/Hjalmarsson to be on our second-pairing.

 

[Jame]

I think this is getting a bit ahead of ourselves. I mean, there really is no reason yet to think that Risto won't be defensively good enough to regularly play against top teams and also beat them GF and Corsi wise. We also have no idea will Bogo actually find consistency to be the defensive player we have seen glimpses of.

I also think this zone-start aspect gets a bit overblown in this context (if we're thinking percents). I mean, as we all expect our team to improve greatly puck possession wise, it also means that we will start A LOT more on o-zone as a team. This automatically means more o-zone-starts.

I also think that not many teams have the luxury of having second pairing of shutdown d-men who do a great job against opponent's top opponents regularly. It's not common at all to have Vlasic or Hjalmarsson on your second pairing.

I think that ideally you have a first pairing that basically can play successfully any role against any opponent. They would get most o-zone-starts but also highest QoC. You should play your best pairing as much as possible, and this enables it.

Your second pairing would be more defensive oriented, and would take the biggest chunk of d-zone starts (generally no matter the opponent). The goal is not to shutdown top opponent's, the goal is to enable your first pairing to get more o-zone-starts and shelter the third-pairing.

Your third-pairing then would get the rest of the minutes. This basically would mean relatively lot o-zone minutes and easier opponents - automatically.

There isn't a gigantic difference compared to your view, but IMO there is a really big difference how you view your first pairing.

Basically this could mean that if McCabe (not likely) or Guhle could develop into a quality two-way player (not necessary legit top-pairing) and Risto establishes himself as a legit 1# the pairings could be:

Guhle/McCabe - Risto
Kulikov - Bogo
Guhle/McCabe - Nelson

Of course, if Risto never develops there, we might need to find a pairing that is actually able to play effective defensive game against top opponents. But that situation might become pretty problematic, because we probably won't find Vlasic/Hjalmarsson to be on our second-pairing.

I think having a Vlasic or Hammer on your 2nd pairing IS the ideal...

 

[Heraldic]

I think having a Vlasic or Hammer on your 2nd pairing IS the ideal...

Of course it is.

Just like having Keith - Doughty as your first pairing.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I think this is getting a bit ahead of ourselves. I mean, there really is no reason yet to think that Risto won't be defensively good enough to regularly play against top teams and also beat them GF and Corsi wise. We also have no idea will Bogo actually find consistency to be the defensive player we have seen glimpses of.

I also think this zone-start aspect gets a bit overblown in this context (if we're thinking percents). I mean, as we all expect our team to improve greatly puck possession wise, it also means that we will start A LOT more on o-zone as a team. This automatically means more o-zone-starts.

I also think that not many teams have the luxury of having second pairing of shutdown d-men who do a great job against opponent's top opponents regularly. It's not common at all to have Vlasic or Hjalmarsson on your second pairing.

I think that ideally you have a first pairing that basically can play successfully any role against any opponent. They would get most o-zone-starts but also highest QoC. You should play your best pairing as much as possible, and this enables it.

Your second pairing would be more defensive oriented, and would take the biggest chunk of d-zone starts (generally no matter the opponent). The goal is not to shutdown top opponent's, the goal is to enable your first pairing to get more o-zone-starts and shelter the third-pairing.

Your third-pairing then would get the rest of the minutes. This basically would mean relatively lot o-zone minutes and easier opponents - automatically.

There isn't a gigantic difference compared to your view, but IMO there is a really big difference how you view your first pairing.

Basically this could mean that if McCabe (not likely) or Guhle could develop into a quality two-way player (not necessary legit top-pairing) and Risto establishes himself as a legit 1# the pairings could be:

Guhle/McCabe - Risto
Kulikov - Bogo
Guhle/McCabe - Nelson

Of course, if Risto never develops there, we might need to find a pairing that is actually able to play effective defensive game against top opponents. But that situation might become pretty problematic, because we probably won't find Vlasic/Hjalmarsson to be on our second-pairing.

It has nothing to do with Ristolainen not being good enough defensively. It's about freeing him up to do more. It's great to watch him battle Lucic or Ovechkin. But if LHD-Bogosian picked up that duty, he could focus more on puck transition and offense while still providing #1 level defense.

Against the best teams, having Bogosian play against top lines still means Ristolainen has to play against tough QOC. Just let LHD-Bogosian play against the better and possibly more physically imposing lines. It doesn't imply that Ristolainen is sheltered or can't play defense. He just doesn't have to hammer away for 82 games.

 

[jBuds]

With Ristolainen and Bogosian, the Sabres really need two defensively oriented LHD to compliment them. Kulikov works, and eventually Guhle does as well. That sets up a McCabe - Nelson/puck mover as a third pair. This set up is all longer term, after Gorges and Franson move on.

None of those pairings really works as a shutdown pair. I think Ristolainen could really benefit from a shutdown pairing, freeing him up to play against easier competition.

What if Bogosian did a Scott Stevens?

I remember Stevens in his last years with the Caps, year with the Blues, and first few seasons with the Devils. He was putting away 10+ goals almost every season. Then during their first Cup season, he seemed to flip the switch from two-way to shutdown defender with Ken Daneyko.

Stevens made that switch at 30 years old. I get that it also aligned with the beginning of the dead puck era, and the Devils were a large part of that. But he did change his role for the team.

Could Bogosian do it?

He's big and mobile. Hes got the talent. He's got that scary quality that Stevens had. And he seems like a team guy that would do it if asked.

Kulikov - Bogosian could play against tough QOC and focus on punishing forwards, gaining possession, and getting the puck to their forwards. That enables Ristolainen, and allows the Sabres to keep a puck mover like Nelson on the bottom pair.

Thoughts? (jBuds, looking at you)

This is the right idea - when we got Kulikov, I viewed him as the second guy on the depth chart, not Risto's partner. In a perfect world, you'd be able to have a shutdown pairing behind a pairing of Risto and a different capable lefty that you can use more situationally in the right way.

As far as Bogo and his game go, it's not too farfetched... He'd have to work on picking his spots better across the board: hitting and stepping up (neutral and defensive zones without the puck), focusing on making the breakout pass his absolute number one option (resisting temptation to break it out himself or join the rush with high regularity)... And he's really have to tone down his scrambling and chasing in the D zone in that role.

It's not a wild thing to ask, but the problem I envision is him being able to resist that temptation to hop on his getup and lug it out himself. If you watch when Bogo goes to retrieve a puck in the corner, you see he tries to do so with much more of a head of steam than a lot of others. This is probably because, in his mind, he can assess the play on the move under the notion that he will probably be skating it out and not making an outlet pass. He'd have to stop behind the net more, flip the ice and go to his partner more, and apply a more calm approach to his breakout mentality in general.


Sort of separately:

One thing that I never understood is why more coaches don't cut it to five dmen... They go six or four and don't break the pairings nearly as much as they should. If you're giving me the choice, I'd rather have five dmen with #1 able to play with #5 to get him on the ice than play with four guys because your bottom guy can't be trusted and you won't move his partner elsewhere.

Way too much credence is put into pairings and partners. Defensemen are trained to analyze and read and adapt, and the top tier guys - of which I think Risto is imminently a part of - are not the kind of players whose game depends on who they are paired with. Obviously familiarity with a partner is great, but it's not as though things would fall apart if we ran Risto with someone on the third pair every now and then within a game.

 

[Heraldic]

It has nothing to do with Ristolainen not being good enough defensively. It's about freeing him up to do more. It's great to watch him battle Lucic or Ovechkin. But if LHD-Bogosian picked up that duty, he could focus more on puck transition and offense while still providing #1 level defense.

Against the best teams, having Bogosian play against top lines still means Ristolainen has to play against tough QOC. Just let LHD-Bogosian play against the better and possibly more physically imposing lines. It doesn't imply that Ristolainen is sheltered or can't play defense. He just doesn't have to hammer away for 82 games.

So you're basically saying that we start to deploy Risto like Barrie/Shattenkirk, no?

That could be a good idea, if we actually had another pairing with the ability to beat regularly top guys. Thinking Bogo becomes that elite defensive guy or that a guy like Scandella (who has never been in that kind of role) after acquiring him also becomes that kind of guy, is a really big stretch.

Many top d-man are deployed just like I described (Doughty, Weber, Subban, Suter etc.). The key is that those d-men play a ton. And that's what we should be expecting from Risto as well.

 

[jBuds]

Also please keep in mind that Ristolainen (in all likelihood) hasn't peaked or plateaued. You shouldn't necessarily project what you'd like out of him under the idea that his play will be at the level it is now. The performance he has put in thus far, at such a young age, should indicate the trajectory... I don't know if I need to overthink it with him, and depending on how we supplement or augment the D corps, we may be best suited deploying him as the true number one he slates to be...

 

[Heraldic]

Sort of separately:

One thing that I never understood is why more coaches don't cut it to five dmen... They go six or four and don't break the pairings nearly as much as they should. If you're giving me the choice, I'd rather have five dmen with #1 able to play with #5 to get him on the ice than play with four guys because your bottom guy can't be trusted and you won't move his partner elsewhere.

Way too much credence is put into pairings and partners. Defensemen are trained to analyze and read and adapt, and the top tier guys - of which I think Risto is imminently a part of - are not the kind of players whose game depends on who they are paired with. Obviously familiarity with a partner is great, but it's not as though things would fall apart if we ran Risto with someone on the third pair every now and then within a game.

You start seeing that kind of rotating during the playoffs. Keith, Letang, Doughty, Chara - all of them have had almost massively more ice time than the other d-men. During the regular season it might not be the smartest thing to grind off your top guys (like we have seen).

 

[joshjull]

It has nothing to do with Ristolainen not being good enough defensively. It's about freeing him up to do more. It's great to watch him battle Lucic or Ovechkin. But if LHD-Bogosian picked up that duty, he could focus more on puck transition and offense while still providing #1 level defense.

Against the best teams, having Bogosian play against top lines still means Ristolainen has to play against tough QOC. Just let LHD-Bogosian play against the better and possibly more physically imposing lines. It doesn't imply that Ristolainen is sheltered or can't play defense. He just doesn't have to hammer away for 82 games.

Disco initially tried this when Bogo first returned to the lineup last year. He had McCabe/Bogo getting the tougher assignments and they struggled quite a bit. It forced him to switch Risto's pair back into that role after a relatively short period of time.

Maybe Disco will try it again this coming season with Kulikov/Bogo. It was certainly something he was thinking about last year

 

[SabresSharks]

Also please keep in mind that Ristolainen (in all likelihood) hasn't peaked or plateaued. You shouldn't necessarily project what you'd like out of him under the idea that his play will be at the level it is now. The performance he has put in thus far, at such a young age, should indicate the trajectory... I don't know if I need to overthink it with him, and depending on how we supplement or augment the D corps, we may be best suited deploying him as the true number one he slates to be...

Agreed. I'd be shocked, and sorely disappointed, if Risto has "peaked or plateaued". He turns 22 on Oct. 27.

I think he's a legit #1 in the making. Maybe not a perennial Norris candidate, but in the tier just below that. We won't see his peak until:

1. He is physically mature enough to sustain the stellar play we saw in the first half of last year for a full season, including playoffs.
2. The Sabres find the right partner for him.

 

[joshjull]

Agreed. I'd be shocked, and sorely disappointed, if Risto has "peaked or plateaued". He turns 22 on Oct. 27.

I think he's a legit #1 in the making. Maybe not a perennial Norris candidate, but in the tier just below that. We won't see his peak until:

1. He is physically mature enough to sustain the stellar play we saw in the first half of last year for a full season, including playoffs.
   [*]The Sabres find the right partner for him.
   

If he is a "legit #1" that won't matter.

 

[TehDoak]

Agreed. I'd be shocked, and sorely disappointed, if Risto has "peaked or plateaued". He turns 22 on Oct. 27.

I think he's a legit #1 in the making. Maybe not a perennial Norris candidate, but in the tier just below that. We won't see his peak until:

1. He is physically mature enough to sustain the stellar play we saw in the first half of last year for a full season, including playoffs.
2. The Sabres find the right partner for him.

Damnit we need a left partner!

 

[hizzoner]

We should not go overboard on Guhle yet. He has good wheels but like Pysyk has not shown to be a shut down guy or a ppqb. Not to say he will not develop but he does not get the love in selection to national teams or all star voting that one might expect from the way we regard him.

 

[Beerz]

 

[Der Jaeger]

This is the right idea - when we got Kulikov, I viewed him as the second guy on the depth chart, not Risto's partner. In a perfect world, you'd be able to have a shutdown pairing behind a pairing of Risto and a different capable lefty that you can use more situationally in the right way.

As far as Bogo and his game go, it's not too farfetched... He'd have to work on picking his spots better across the board: hitting and stepping up (neutral and defensive zones without the puck), focusing on making the breakout pass his absolute number one option (resisting temptation to break it out himself or join the rush with high regularity)... And he's really have to tone down his scrambling and chasing in the D zone in that role.

It's not a wild thing to ask, but the problem I envision is him being able to resist that temptation to hop on his getup and lug it out himself. If you watch when Bogo goes to retrieve a puck in the corner, you see he tries to do so with much more of a head of steam than a lot of others. This is probably because, in his mind, he can assess the play on the move under the notion that he will probably be skating it out and not making an outlet pass. He'd have to stop behind the net more, flip the ice and go to his partner more, and apply a more calm approach to his breakout mentality in general.


Sort of separately:

One thing that I never understood is why more coaches don't cut it to five dmen... They go six or four and don't break the pairings nearly as much as they should. If you're giving me the choice, I'd rather have five dmen with #1 able to play with #5 to get him on the ice than play with four guys because your bottom guy can't be trusted and you won't move his partner elsewhere.

Way too much credence is put into pairings and partners. Defensemen are trained to analyze and read and adapt, and the top tier guys - of which I think Risto is imminently a part of - are not the kind of players whose game depends on who they are paired with. Obviously familiarity with a partner is great, but it's not as though things would fall apart if we ran Risto with someone on the third pair every now and then within a game.

Great feedback, as usual. Thanks.

 

[Der Jaeger]

So you're basically saying that we start to deploy Risto like Barrie/Shattenkirk, no?

That could be a good idea, if we actually had another pairing with the ability to beat regularly top guys. Thinking Bogo becomes that elite defensive guy or that a guy like Scandella (who has never been in that kind of role) after acquiring him also becomes that kind of guy, is a really big stretch.

Many top d-man are deployed just like I described (Doughty, Weber, Subban, Suter etc.). The key is that those d-men play a ton. And that's what we should be expecting from Risto as well.

Bolded: I disagree. So does jBuds.

Rest: we're talking past each other. I'm not suggesting that Ristolainen doesn't play a ton of minutes. I'm suggesting that he does log true #1 minutes. I'm suggesting that he logs true #1 minutes while having the Bogosian pairing take DZS and easing the QOC load.