Speculation: Roster Speculation, 2018 Off-Season

[Aladyyn]

Larsson is either your checking line centre or he is gone. That 4th line as constructed is a waste. Bring in a speedy offensive centre to play between Nylander and Baptiste and try to generate some more offence. I do like the other 3 lines.

Nylander - Pu - Baptiste

 

[Chainshot]

Okposo had two unproductive stretches - opening the season with 2 points in 10 games (sandwiched around missing time with a reported illness) and then a 4-point stretch of 13 games from Thanksgiving to Christmas. So the other 53 games he had 38 points or closer to his Islander points/game production (it's a .26 vs. .72 IIRC).

He fumbles pucks, handling it or passing it. Was it actually any worse than he has been in the past though? We know he has been a streaky scorer over his career, he might be someone we can live with at least up to the next miserable work-stoppage and buyout option.

I'm hoping he gets his full off-season training regime in and if he's coming back, comes back with something to prove. At one point it seemed like he might be the guy who took the mantle to lead the team, but at this point, he seems like he's stepped back from that and is again a support player who is going to play well with other play drivers.

 

[Jame]

Larsson is either your checking line centre or he is gone. That 4th line as constructed is a waste. Bring in a speedy offensive centre to play between Nylander and Baptiste and try to generate some more offence. I do like the other 3 lines.

I disagree pretty strongly.

Larsson flanked by skill and speed is exactly what could return some of his utility.

 

[Chainshot]

Like it or not, Larsson also seems to have the confidence of his coach. I could see him being dealt as part of a Foligno or Ennis bit to a deal and I could see him back and used as a Sami Pahlsson 4th line role.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Who else in the organization can be considered for 4C right now? For now, not knowing what Botterill may do in the summer, I'd like to think that if Girgensons and Larsson can stay on the 4th line where they belong (or at least where they're talent level limits them to), without having to play up, they would be fine in that checking role. It just comes down to who else can play RW and make that line effective (Fasching?).

Or...have Girgensons and Larsson really been that bad that they shouldn't even get 8 mins/gm at ES?

 

[Aladyyn]

Who else in the organization can be considered for 4C right now? For now, not knowing what Botterill may do in the summer, I'd like to think that if Girgensons and Larsson can stay on the 4th line where they belong (or at least where they're talent level limits them to), without having to play up, they would be fine in that checking role. It just comes down to who else can play RW and make that line effective (Fasching?).

Or...have Girgensons and Larsson really been that bad that they shouldn't even get 8 mins/gm at ES?

Malone

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Malone

Well that's not very encouraging then. I don't see Larsson getting moved out of that spot then, unless a trade.

 

[flashsabre]

Well that's not very encouraging then. I don't see Larsson getting moved out of that spot then, unless a trade.

Then I don't see this team improving. He is slow and for a guy that is cast in a defensive role I don't think he is very good at it. Others may see value in him but I have washed my hands of the Larrsons and Girgensons.

 

[Jame]

Okposo had two unproductive stretches - opening the season with 2 points in 10 games (sandwiched around missing time with a reported illness) and then a 4-point stretch of 13 games from Thanksgiving to Christmas. So the other 53 games he had 38 points or closer to his Islander points/game production (it's a .26 vs. .72 IIRC).

He fumbles pucks, handling it or passing it. Was it actually any worse than he has been in the past though? We know he has been a streaky scorer over his career, he might be someone we can live with at least up to the next miserable work-stoppage and buyout option.

I'm hoping he gets his full off-season training regime in and if he's coming back, comes back with something to prove. At one point it seemed like he might be the guy who took the mantle to lead the team, but at this point, he seems like he's stepped back from that and is again a support player who is going to play well with other play drivers.

Okposo’s difficulty this year in to handle a pass, difficulty with the puck on his stick, “lateness” in recognizing plays, etc all lead me to believe that his brain is still re-wiring some things.

 

[flashsabre]

Okposo’s difficulty this year in to handle a pass, difficulty with the puck on his stick, “lateness” in recognizing plays, etc all lead me to believe that his brain is still re-wiring some things.

You may be right. I doubt it is something Okposo will talk about as an excuse but I think a lot of people forget the severity of his situation.

And besides when he convinces Tavares to sign here everyone will love him again

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Then I don't see this team improving. He is slow and for a guy that is cast in a defensive role I don't think he is very good at it. Others may see value in him but I have washed my hands of the Larrsons and Girgensons.

I don't see this team improving much myself. This is how I see it, with what we have right now anyway...

Rodrigues-Eichel-Okposo
B/B/F-O'Reilly-Reinhart
Nylander-Mittelstadt-B/B/F
Girgensons-Larsson-Pominville
Wilson, B/B/F

Scandella-Ristolainen
McCabe/Beaulieu-Bogosian/Tennyson
Guhle-Nelson

Ullmark, ???

That's relying on a bunch of young players not just making the team, but being effective, and obviously steering toward a bridge abutment at 80 mph with that 2nd D pair. That's a 70 pt roster right there, and whoever we get drafting 3rd or 4th, or trade to play 4C instead of Larsson, isn't going to change it.

 

[darcyRegier]

If we could somehow squeeze one of Copp or Lowry from WPG...that would drastically change our bottom 6.

Both guys are lightning quick and bring a lot of skill as well. I'd even love to see one of them on Jacks line

 

[GellMann]

He'll be CBO'd after the next lockout in 2 years.

I've already lost most of my hair watching him skate around with Jack and ROR the last two months. I need to save the rest of it.

Maybe not a second, but I would give picks to move him.

 

[MackAttack26]

Rodrigues - Eichel - XXXXX
XXXXX - O'Reilly - Reinhart
XXXXX - Mittelstadt - Okposo
Wilson - XXXXX - Baptiste
X - Larsson, Pominville

Scandella - Ristolainen
XXXXX - XXXXX
Guhle - Nelson
X - McCabe

Ullmark
XXXXX

Forwards

- If you get one of Svechnikov/Zadina, that fills the hole next to Eichel and ERod. Both would be great fits.

- Wilson has fit nicely with ROR and Sam, and I like him, but ideally he is a good 4th liner on this team.

- I expect Mittelstadt to start at 3C, but if they want to slot him next to ROR and Reinhart and find a vet 3C (Ex. Riley Nash), then I am good with that too.

- As much as people want Pominville off the team next year, I don't see them buying out a player who is as respected in the organization as him, who just put up 34 points this year and has only one year left.

- I think it is time to move on from Girgensons. I am tired of giving him top-9 spots and there are other guys I prefer for the 4th line winger spots where he should be.

- Would prefer to add a vet 4C. Wouldn't be surprised to see Larsson in that role again but an upgrade there would be a nice add that could make a difference.

- I see people putting Nylander into their lineup....don't. He had an okay 3 games but still clearly has so much to learn. Maybeee re-evaluate in the 2nd half of next season if he takes huge strides in the AHL

- Guys competing for spots: Smith (middle-6 LW), Bailey (bottom-6 W), Malone (4C), O'Regan (4C/extra). Maybe Blackwell (4th liner/extra) and Fasching (bottom-6 W).

Defense

- If you win Dahlin, that fills a huge void in the top-4 on the left side to go with Scandella. Whether you pair him with Risto and give big offensive minutes or pair him with another steadier defensive guy and have 2 balanced pair remains to be seen.

- That top-4 RD spot is the biggest issue to me. I don't want to see it gifted to Bogosian (if healthy) or them to expect Nelson to step up to it fulltime. A common name brought up is Pateryn and I think that would be a solid stopgap option to fill out the top-4.

- As much as I like Antipin, he was treated poorly this year. Even though he is an RFA and we have some control, I see him bolting back to Russia unfortunately.

- Get rid of Beaulieu one way or another. Bogosian I'm just expecting to be injured if not bought out at this point. Goodbye, deadweight.

- If you don't get Dahlin, shift Guhle into the top-4 and McCabe up to the bottom-pair. Sign a half decent bottom-pair vet to be an extra (No more Gorges, Falk, etc).

Goalies

- This one is pretty clear. Don't bring Lehner back. Don't bring Johnson back. Get Ullmark up here fulltime.

- Get a 1A/1B vet to work with Ullmark. Give Ullmark a serious shot at being the starter but in case he flops, you will have somebody who can be expected to be reliable. A Carter Hutton type would do fine here.

 

[Fezzy126]

I'm not getting the E-Rod love. Sure he looked good compared to the rest of the players we've rolled out this year, but those players were either broken (KO), done (Pommer), waiver wire pickups, etc.

The assist last night was great, but he makes a bunch of questionable plays every game. He's a soft perimeter player with average skill, he's poor man's Ryan Dzingel... I'm Ok with him in the bottom 6 and temporarily sliding up and down as needed, but certainly not someone I'm penciling in as a solid fixture in the top 6 moving forward.

The other player I don't get is Larsson. He had one sequence in the first period that was the epitome of his career:

1. Forechecked hard in the offensive zone below the goal line and caused a turnover
2. Immediately gathered the puck, but his slow offensive zone instincts and poor hands showed as the Florida player easily poke checked the puck off his stick
3. The poke check forced the puck to the side wall, and Larsson had a 1-2 step lead on the florida player
4. The Florida player easily won the race for what wasn't even a 50/50 puck... it should have been Larsson's
5. Florida easily exited the zone with Larsson trailing the play

Dude is a dog on the puck and plays the game hard, but he has hands of stone, negative offensive instincts, and as a result will always be an offensive liability on the ice. No thanks, move on. Rather see what we have in Malone moving forward.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

- I see people putting Nylander into their lineup....don't. He had an okay 3 games but still clearly has so much to learn. Maybeee re-evaluate in the 2nd half of next season if he takes huge strides in the AHL.

I agree, because I didn't like that pick over Chychrun/McAvoy/Sergachev, and I still don't like him on the roster. I only listed him above as a defense mechanism, trying to pretend that draft wasn't a lost cause. My therapist says to focus on the fact that at least one of those D-men isn't playing for a division rival, and that maybe the night terrors will stop after a while.

 

[MayDayMayDay]

Chicago sports radio talking about possibly moving on from Corey Crawford this off-season. 2 years at 6 mil per left. Maybe we could help each other?

 

[nickdawg95]

Chicago sports radio talking about possibly moving on from Corey Crawford this off-season. 2 years at 6 mil per left. Maybe we could help each other?

crawford for okposo/Bogo

 

[Moskau]

Okposo’s difficulty this year in to handle a pass, difficulty with the puck on his stick, “lateness” in recognizing plays, etc all lead me to believe that his brain is still re-wiring some things.

He had the same problems for the 2nd half of last season as well, even before the medical scare. The fact that he was on medicine for concussion symptoms even though he didn't miss time for one makes me wonder if he wasn't disclosing injuries. He seems like a proud guy and I'm sure he put a lot of stress on himself after signing that contract.

 

[Jame]

I don't see this team improving much myself. This is how I see it, with what we have right now anyway...

Rodrigues-Eichel-Okposo
B/B/F-O'Reilly-Reinhart
Nylander-Mittelstadt-B/B/F
Girgensons-Larsson-Pominville
Wilson, B/B/F

Scandella-Ristolainen
McCabe/Beaulieu-Bogosian/Tennyson
Guhle-Nelson

Ullmark, ???

That's relying on a bunch of young players not just making the team, but being effective, and obviously steering toward a bridge abutment at 80 mph with that 2nd D pair. That's a 70 pt roster right there, and whoever we get drafting 3rd or 4th, or trade to play 4C instead of Larsson, isn't going to change it.

That’s the roster if Botts does literally nothing

 

[Jame]

crawford for okposo/Bogo

Not sure why Chicago moves Crawford without creating cap space... that’s the entire point isn’t it?

 

[zenthusiast]

That’s the roster if Botts does literally nothing

Well, given his in-season alterations...

 

[Aladyyn]

I'm not getting the E-Rod love. Sure he looked good compared to the rest of the players we've rolled out this year, but those players were either broken (KO), done (Pommer), waiver wire pickups, etc.

The assist last night was great, but he makes a bunch of questionable plays every game. He's a soft perimeter player with average skill, he's poor man's Ryan Dzingel... I'm Ok with him in the bottom 6 and temporarily sliding up and down as needed, but certainly not someone I'm penciling in as a solid fixture in the top 6 moving forward.

The other player I don't get is Larsson. He had one sequence in the first period that was the epitome of his career:

1. Forechecked hard in the offensive zone below the goal line and caused a turnover
2. Immediately gathered the puck, but his slow offensive zone instincts and poor hands showed as the Florida player easily poke checked the puck off his stick
3. The poke check forced the puck to the side wall, and Larsson had a 1-2 step lead on the florida player
4. The Florida player easily won the race for what wasn't even a 50/50 puck... it should have been Larsson's
5. Florida easily exited the zone with Larsson trailing the play

Dude is a dog on the puck and plays the game hard, but he has hands of stone, negative offensive instincts, and as a result will always be an offensive liability on the ice. No thanks, move on. Rather see what we have in Malone moving forward.

Yeah I don't get it either, what's such a big deal about a player who produced at a 1st line pace while mostly playing away from our top 3 forwards. Mediocre at best tbh.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

@Jame

You asked for a breakdown on why Sobotka is washed so let's go into the numbers.

Role

In 17-18, Sobotka was a utility forward who served as the energy guy while others drove the play. With Stastny, he was used in two-way roles that shifted slightly towards offense, and was a more generic third line type with Jaskin. While his defensive zone usage is on the heavy side, Sobotka wasn't carrying the weight of a specialist.

Usage
13:55 - 5v5 TOI/Game
1:38 PPTOI/G
1:08 SHTOI/G
46% - ZSR
18.92 - OZS/60
22.06 - DZS/60


Teammates
8th - TOI
1st - CF%
1st - xG%

Competition
7th - TOI
7th - CF%
9th - xG%

Lines
Sobotka-Stastny-Steen
Sobotka-Stastny-Tarasenko
Sobotka-Thompson/Barbashev-Jaskin

Production & Impact

While Sobotka's individual production is uninspiring, you probably aren't targeting him to rack up points. That being said, he was deployed with a suite of effective forwards, so you'd like to see a little more in this department.

The real question with a player like Vlad though, is whether the things that make him a fan favorite actually translate to the ice. Sadly, they do not. Sobotka is a drag in virtually every underlying metric, and things don't get better trying to isolate his impact in one zone or another. There is a consistent trend of the team and linemates generating less and surrendering more with Sobotka on the ice, in both quality and quantity.

While I'll spare you the individual O/D splits, but once you weight for how his linemates defend away from him, Sobotka's drag on xGA notably stands out among regular Blues forwards.

Individual
1.18 - P/60
0.92 - P1/60
0.48 - G/60

On Ice
46.16% - xGF%
49.75% - CF%
47.48% - SCF%
42.86 - GF%

Relative & RelT
-.7.89 - xGFRel
-2.67 - CFRel
-5.54 - SCFRel
-9.68 - GFRel

-7.05 xGRelT
-2.69 CFRelT
-9.26 GFRelT

Verdict

Although Sobotka is clinging to a low-end third line role in terms of individual production, his inability to drive play in any capacity really makes him more of a flexible 10th forward at this stage of the game. He can play up the lineup in various capacities, but it will typically be due to a lack of options or outdated coaching tendencies than ability or impact.

For the Sabres, he only makes sense as a fourth line identity piece to cap off an eventful overhaul of the forward group. Sobotka does nothing to make Eichel, O'Reilly, Mittelstadt, or hypotherical checking center acquisition's lives easier, and should not be viewed as an answer to any of the team's core problems. Hitting people is not a substitute for scoring or preventing goals, especially not for this team.

 

[sincerity0]

I'm not getting the E-Rod love. Sure he looked good compared to the rest of the players we've rolled out this year, but those players were either broken (KO), done (Pommer), waiver wire pickups, etc.

The assist last night was great, but he makes a bunch of questionable plays every game. He's a soft perimeter player with average skill, he's poor man's Ryan Dzingel... I'm Ok with him in the bottom 6 and temporarily sliding up and down as needed, but certainly not someone I'm penciling in as a solid fixture in the top 6 moving forward.

The other player I don't get is Larsson. He had one sequence in the first period that was the epitome of his career:

1. Forechecked hard in the offensive zone below the goal line and caused a turnover
2. Immediately gathered the puck, but his slow offensive zone instincts and poor hands showed as the Florida player easily poke checked the puck off his stick
3. The poke check forced the puck to the side wall, and Larsson had a 1-2 step lead on the florida player
4. The Florida player easily won the race for what wasn't even a 50/50 puck... it should have been Larsson's
5. Florida easily exited the zone with Larsson trailing the play

Dude is a dog on the puck and plays the game hard, but he has hands of stone, negative offensive instincts, and as a result will always be an offensive liability on the ice. No thanks, move on. Rather see what we have in Malone moving forward.

ERod is a decent 3rd or 4th line player with some offensive upside. He deserves some praise for carving out an NHL role for himself after being an UDFA. In a perfect world, he would be a good complementary piece to chip in 15/15/30 on the third line.

Larsson on the other hand is just terrible. His 5v5 shooting/GA chart says it all. He has one year left on a small deal. He shouldn't be on the roster next year (buy out or Rochester).

Edit: Although @IneffectiveMath's info is on the graphs, follow him on Twitter (@IneffectiveMath) or think about contributing to his Patreon @ www.HockeyViz.com