Roster Speculation 2017-18 Part 3

[Jame]

Two things.

First, he absolutely could disagree with the first bolded. Perhaps he thinks one of these young guys is ready. I don't.

Second, I too agree with a long view, but that has to be balanced out with the present as well. To me in a draft like this, the asset use to get your pick of the litter is a bad use.

I don't think anyone can be sure that anyone of the top d available are going to be better than the next. It's entirely possible that Liljegren or Brannstrom becomes the best guy in the draft.

We all have our favorites, but with that understanding, I personally would rather gamble on my selection at 8, plus whatever defender Kane can return vs one gamble with the puck at 3. I think that limits your risk and gives you help now and long term.

This is all in the dark to some degree. If Botterill knows today that he is looking at a terrible return for Kane. Like far worse than most on this board have speculated, so say a gorges type, then ya if Kane is that valueless, sure throw him in.

Makar and Heiskanen are elite prospects. The rest are not.

 

[1972]

I wonder if we can turn Kane into assets that help acquire Ryan Murray.

 

[sabrebuild]

That's a silly perspective to take.

I'd do Kane and 8 for 3. Every Sabres fan should be signing up for that deal.

If you say so. But assuming that Kane has enough value, in conjunction with some minor assets to return a quality NHL defender, not a star, I see more value in getting a long term pick at 8 and getting a current piece.

Basically two bites at the apple sounds better than really believing in 1 pick working out.

I suppose an analogy off the top of my head would be trading up to pick Sammy watkins in a deep wr draft. Was it really worth it to get your guy for a hefty price, when plenty of other guys had a similar chance to be a similar quality player.

 

[sabrebuild]

Makar and Heiskanen are elite prospects. The rest are not.

That is an opinion. I tend to agree with it. But they are not can't miss. Would you honestly say you would blown away if liljegren or brannstrom or vaakanainen or valimaki ended being as good or close enough for a distinction without meaning?

So the equation becomes, does Makar provide enough value in a year or two, assuming he turns out well, to be worth more than the d you get at 8 + the defender you can trade Kane for that is already in the league?

I think it's a close call and requires more information for anyone on this board to have a coherent opinion. If Botterill is getting offers for Kane that are crap, the answer is easy. But if talks with the canucks are real, and Kane + a second and Borgen gets you Tanev... well

Tanev on a good deal + Valimaki looks close to Makar if he turns out well, but not elite.

 

[Jim Bob]

That is an opinion. I tend to agree with it. But they are not can't miss. Would you honestly say you would blown away if liljegren or brannstrom or vaakanainen or valimaki ended being as good or close enough for a distinction without meaning?

So the equation becomes, does Makar provide enough value in a year or two, assuming he turns out well, to be worth more than the d you get at 8 + the defender you can trade Kane for that is already in the league?

I think it's a close call and requires more information for anyone on this board to have a coherent opinion. If Botterill is getting offers for Kane that are crap, the answer is easy. But if talks with the canucks are real, and Kane + a second and Borgen gets you Tanev... well

Tanev on a good deal + Valimaki looks close to Makar if he turns out well, but not elite.

The tough part is that we have no real idea what Kane's trade value is.

We have no idea if it would take Kane+8 to get Tanev.

We also have no idea if Kane+8 gets the Sabres up to 3.

 

[sabrebuild]

The tough part is that we have no real idea what Kane's trade value is.

We have no idea if it would take Kane+8 to get Tanev.

We also have no idea if Kane+8 gets the Sabres up to 3.

Agreed. Without being intimately aware of what kind of offers are being made and what Kane gets for a current player, deciding if that deal is good or bad for us becomes guesswork.

 

[old kummelweck]

why do the sabres want 3, other than the obvious better drafting position?

 

[Jim Bob]

why do the sabres want 3, other than the obvious better drafting position?

They get their choice of any D in the draft as opposed to staying at 8 and seeing who falls to them.

 

[Jame]

If you say so. But assuming that Kane has enough value, in conjunction with some minor assets to return a quality NHL defender, not a star, I see more value in getting a long term pick at 8 and getting a current piece.

Basically two bites at the apple sounds better than really believing in 1 pick working out.

I suppose an analogy off the top of my head would be trading up to pick Sammy watkins in a deep wr draft. Was it really worth it to get your guy for a hefty price, when plenty of other guys had a similar chance to be a similar quality player.

Or Atlanta trading up for Julio Jones

I believe in the tier structure of the draft. If we have the opportunity to move from the back of tier 2 to tier 1... at the cost of Kane... it's a no brainer.

We're not getting Tanev for less than 8 anyways.

 

[Jame]

Agreed. Without being intimately aware of what kind of offers are being made and what Kane gets for a current player, deciding if that deal is good or bad for us becomes guesswork.

This is a new approach... I guess we can never agree on a hypothetical trade again, because there's always something better out there... hypothetically

 

[sabrebuild]

This is a new approach... I guess we can never agree on a hypothetical trade again, because there's always something better out there... hypothetically

Haha, do you think there is not a wide disparity on what Kane's value is?

For example if we were talking about trading O'Reilly, we can mostly agree on his rough value. Not just today, since we saw what his value was in a trade recently, but before he left Colorado. I mean the package that we sent them is very similar to what you and I suggested a number of times. We had a ball park.

With Kane, I really don't have a realistic ball park. He has a ton of variables that are going to be gm specific as to what he can return. Plenty of teams will have zero interest, while others might think he is a last piece to round out a physical playoff forward group.

I don't think this is a new approach, I think Kane is an exception, both as a player and personality.

 

[Jame]

Haha, do you think there is not a wide disparity on what Kane's value is?

For example if we were talking about trading O'Reilly, we can mostly agree on his rough value. Not just today, since we saw what his value was in a trade recently, but before he left Colorado. I mean the package that we sent them is very similar to what you and I suggested a number of times. We had a ball park.

With Kane, I really don't have a realistic ball park. He has a ton of variables that are going to be gm specific as to what he can return. Plenty of teams will have zero interest, while others might think he is a last piece to round out a physical playoff forward group.

I don't think this is a new approach, I think Kane is an exception, both as a player and personality.

I think the expansion draft has thrown a ton of disparity in to any/all trade proposals/values.

Outside of that (expansion), no, I don't think there is a ton of disparity in kane's trade value.

 

[sabrebuild]

Or Atlanta trading up for Julio Jones

I believe in the tier structure of the draft. If we have the opportunity to move from the back of tier 2 to tier 1... at the cost of Kane... it's a no brainer.

We're not getting Tanev for less than 8 anyways.

Julio is a good example. They traded up a ton, spent quality assets, and got a great wr, that took them somewhere 6 years later.

But he was a clear monster, with no wr depth behind him in the draft, tho lots of impact players.

I don't think that kind of drop exists between tiers this year.

I could be wrong, but I like what I see out of valimaki.

 

[sabrebuild]

I think the expansion draft has thrown a ton of disparity in to any/all trade proposals/values.

Outside of that (expansion), no, I don't think there is a ton of disparity in kane's trade value.

Fair enough, toss out the expansion draft, what would you place Kane's value at. I honestly could see him getting a mid to late first and crummy prospect from some team or be the primary piece for a respectable defender.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Did you really just suggest we get oel and shake off moulson and Ennis all in one deal?!

Yes. Actually money owed is lower then Moulson and Ennis' cap numbers. Reinhart would allow Arizona to reunite the Domi-Reinhart-Duclair line and Arizona can use their two top 8 picks to add a Makar and Tippett. Losing OEL would hurt but getting Reinhart, Bailey,#8,37 is a massive haul. Granted they take on two huge cap dumps but it's a fair deal for Buffalo.

 

[old kummelweck]

They get their choice of any D in the draft as opposed to staying at 8 and seeing who falls to them.

Aren't the top 6 or 7 players in the draft all forwards? 3 seems pretty high to reach back for a Dman.

 

[Jame]

Julio is a good example. They traded up a ton, spent quality assets, and got a great wr, that took them somewhere 6 years later.

But he was a clear monster, with no wr depth behind him in the draft, tho lots of impact players.

I don't think that kind of drop exists between tiers this year.

I could be wrong, but I like what I see out of valimaki.

I love Valimaki... I think he's very comparable to Risto... and I would gladly take him at #8. Makar and Heiskanen simply have higher ceilings. Trading Kane for a higher ceiling defensemen would be a great move.

 

[Jame]

Fair enough, toss out the expansion draft, what would you place Kane's value at. I honestly could see him getting a mid to late first and crummy prospect from some team or be the primary piece for a respectable defender.

Late 1st / similar prospect
or
Similar contract (1 year UFA) wart filled defensemen (i.e. Jack Johnson)

 

[Jame]

Aren't the top 6 or 7 players in the draft all forwards? 3 seems pretty high to reach back for a Dman.

No. 2 of the top 4 players are defensemen.

 

[Jame]

It is a high price. But if we traded Sam for Hanifin we would be ecstatic if he developed into even a solid top pairing guy. OEL is a bonafide top 10 D. I would poke around Chayka though and see if a Reinhart for OEL deal is possible. If we could keep #8 and give up #37 and the MIN 2nd instead, then that would be even better. Or how about killing two birds with one stone?

To Buffalo - OEL
To Arizona - Sam Reinhart, #8,#37, Justin Bailey, Matt Moulson, and Tyler Ennis

That would be a dream deal. Id gladly give up Reinhart,#8,#37 and Bailey for OEL if they would also take both of our bad contracts off our hands. That would be worth it to me. Gain a top 10 dman who is a lhd, along with moving our two anchor contracts?! Instant cap flexibility and allows us to be players in free agency and the trade market.



Well 20 minute a night dmen ARE #~3 dmen. I agree that Kane should/will bring back a quality dman. There was a reason we paid so much (at the time) for him. You could count on one, at the most two hands the number of players who provide the speed, grit, physicality and forechecking to go with the 25 or so goals Kane would provide. Hes still young yet is an 8 year vet. Like I said numerous times he is also one of the highest goal scoring left wingers in the entire league since he entered. The idea that he is a "net negative" player or addition by subtraction is laughable. Hes a quality player and without a doubt a LW1. There are not 30+ left wingers clearly better. He may not be a top 10-15 at his position but he is definitely in the 20-30 range.

Goal scoring is at a premium now more then ever and a guy that averages 25g/82gp for his career to go with averaging 30g/82gp since becoming a Sabre holds quality value and is definitely a wanted commodity. I still am weary of how we will replace his offense. A new coach,system, ahl wingers in the system etc doesn't instill the utmost confidence in me. If Kane is moved and Nylander still needs more seasoning then I really hope we bring in a replacement top 6 forward.

It's crazy. But I'd do it (And I almost never say that to Reinhart deals)

Keep in mind that OEL is going to be a 9.0 cap hit player when he turns 28 years old.

 

[sabrebuild]

Late 1st / similar prospect
or
Similar contract (1 year UFA) wart filled defensemen (i.e. Jack Johnson)

I think I would rather get jack Johnson now and see how valimaki turns out, he is my favorite outside of the top d, than trade up and hope makar or Miro hits their absolute ceiling.

If I was Vegas, I would go the route of taking a shot at a potential elite guy. Plenty of time to take homerun shots.

For a team that imo has plenty of forward talent and could win a series next year with immediate help, I lean toward quality vet now and a slightly lesser prospect.

 

[Jame]

I think I would rather get jack Johnson now and see how valimaki turns out, he is my favorite outside of the top d, than trade up and hope makar or Miro hits their absolute ceiling.

If I was Vegas, I would go the route of taking a shot at a potential elite guy. Plenty of time to take homerun shots.

For a team that imo has plenty of forward talent and could win a series next year with immediate help, I lean toward quality vet now and a slightly lesser prospect.

Swing for homers when you can... you don't often get the chance.

 

[Sabre Dance]

 

[Yatzhee]

Not surprising really.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

I was just about to say, if you're consolidating the usual assets into futures, you probably have to get skater talent somewhere else, and Lehner is a prime avenue to do that.