Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2024-25: Re-Tool, Re-Group, Re-Mix, Re-Build

[leeroggy]

Kind of went off the Samuelsson comp. He doesn't produce enough to break into the 5's for me.

And then you lose him to an offer sheet . . . he is DEFINITELY in the 5's . . . look at his offensive stats when not paired with Dobson.

 

[Throttle]

I’m shocked you defend Horvat but constantly rip Barzal apart. Horvat is nowhere near as good as Barzal offensively and is only paid a little less. I’d have no problem moving either of them, but I would move Horvat first. He is a few years older and is at his peak value wise. By the time this team is competing Horvat will be well past his prime.

These are two different players, two different roles, and two different ways they were acquired and signed.

I don’t defend Horvat - he is who he is, he’s being paid a UFA contract and the Isles tax. I’m ok with that. Maybe Isles fans are projecting onto him as someone he never was?

Horvat probably has more value in the eyes of most GMs bc he’s versatile, former captain, and his faceoffs ability. Barzal probably has a limited market due to his contract, well known deficiencies, and refusal to change his game or make his linemates better at that price tag. He’s more suited for a dumb GM or a team looking to add a ‘veteran’ highly skilled player that’s looking to take the next step or add a talent player they can sell hope on.

 

[WangMustGo]

These are two different players, two different roles, and two different ways they were acquired and signed.

I don’t defend Horvat - he is who he is, he’s being paid a UFA contract and the Isles tax. I’m ok with that. Maybe Isles fans are projecting onto him as someone he never was?

Horvat probably has more value in the eyes of most GMs bc he’s versatile, former captain, and his faceoffs ability. Barzal probably has a limited market due to his contract, well known deficiencies, and refusal to change his game or make his linemates better at that price tag. He’s more suited for a dumb GM or a team looking to add a ‘veteran’ highly skilled player that’s looking to take the next step or add a talent player they can sell hope on.

His contract is slightly lower than Barzals. Barzal brings more offense and Horvat numbers are much worse without Barzal. Again I’m not against trading either of them, in fact I’d be fine with trading both of them. If I had to choose 1 to move it’s Horvat.

 

[Throttle]

His contract is slightly lower than Barzals. Barzal brings more offense and Horvat numbers are much worse without Barzal. Again I’m not against trading either of them, in fact I’d be fine with trading both of them. If I had to choose 1 to move it’s Horvat.

Horvat’s numbers are pretty consistent over the course of his career. I’ll keep Horvat to be the next Captain and a better overall player.

 

[PK Cronin]

I think the takeaway here is that Barzal's possession prowess is more valuable without a premier finisher to pass to than Horvat's finishing prowess is without someone to set him up - probably because every second Barzal is playing keep away is a second the opposition does not have the puck (and are also getting tired).

I'm not sure if I'd use those words exactly, but it's fair enough.

The way I look at it is Horvat is a B-B+ players in every category, where Barzal is A+ in some but he's also a C or D in others. I think Horvat is the more complete player and more versatile. That versatility doesn't directly translate to more production the score sheet though. For Barzal, does his A+ attributes outweigh his deficiencies? For me the answer is sometimes.

Gotcha, that's fair. We do have that information from before Horvat was here though, as recently as 2023 but I get your point.

We do, but it's just not exactly the same. Older team, slightly different rosters, different coaches, etc. It certainly provides us more insight into what Barzal does and doesn't do throughout.

Someone mentioned this before, but trading Sorokin is probably the easiest way to ensure we're bad next year. How's this for a crazy thought: Sorokin for Jacob Fowler, Patrik Laine, and the 16th overall pick. Laine's contract is up at the end of the year, so we'd essentially be clearing Sorokin's salary off the books, while making sure we have a top level prospect on the way (along with our #1)

My goal isn't to ensure they'll be bad, because I think they'll be bad barring some huge UFA signing or blockbuster trade. I'm not opposed to trading Sorokin either. He was anointed as the second coming of Patrick Roy but he hasn't really lived up to that consistently. Whether that's the team in front of him or him I'm not sure. We know Varlamov has been better during various stretches and Sorokin has had very limited playoff success.

I'm not familiar enough with Jacob Fowler to comment on the trade value. I don't hate it outright though. I'd been advocating for Laine for some time, because I think he'd be cheap to acquire and addresses a very specific need despite all of his warts (he's got plenty).

 

[WangMustGo]

Horvat’s numbers are pretty consistent over the course of his career. I’ll keep Horvat to be the next Captain and a better overall player.

Let me ask you this, what do you want the next GM to do? Rebuild/retool? Try to stay as competitive as possible? And what kind of return would you look for Barzal?

I’m in the opinion of a big retool maybe even a total rebuild. Starting over with Schaefer and trying to acquire as much draft capital in 2026 as possible. I don’t believe in this core and I don’t think there is a single player that shouldn’t be on the table (Outside of Schaefer).

 

[Throttle]

Let me ask you this, what do you want the next GM to do? Rebuild/retool? Try to stay as competitive as possible? And what kind of return would you look for Barzal?

I’m in the opinion of a big retool maybe even a total rebuild. Starting over with Schaefer and trying to acquire as much draft capital in 2026 as possible. I don’t believe in this core and I don’t think there is a single player that shouldn’t be on the table (Outside of Schaefer).

I think the team can be repositioned to be playoff competitive rather quickly. Cup competitive? Outside of a hot streak, then doubtful.

Buyout Duclair, trade JGP at the draft for a 2nd rounder, rebuild the 3rd and 4th line via trade or UFAs, trade Barzal for a 20-22 young NHLer and mid 6 player or something else. I would stay short on UFA deals for 3/4th liners. Isles need flexibility with the roster next 2 seasons.

Trade Lee at the deadline, he’ll command a first if he’s got 18-20+ goals. Casey might be a deadline casualty as well(Schaefer plus 3 first next year in a deep draft…).

The D is workable, needs a legit strategy and coaching. I’m ok with keeping Dobson, if trading Barzal.

Goaltending is more than fine. I’m not sold on Sorokin in the playoffs yet, but that’s a future item to discover. If he gets injured the season is down the drain and that’s ok bc that forces their hand on adjusting the roster.

 

[PhysicalGraffiti]

Fair points. Let's look at the go for it, glass half full view:

- we get a full season from Barzal and Duclair, which also helps Horvat. They return to their 2023 production level, and Duclair scores 25 goals.

- we keep Palmieri, Lee and Pageau (at least until the deadline). Ritchie wins the second line center job and plays between two vets in Lee and Palmieri in his rookie season. Ritchie scores 15 goals

- Tsyplakov works on his conditioning and takes a step forward his sophomore year - he puts up 20 goals and 50 points. Holmstrom takes another baby step forward and scores 25. Pageau keeps on Pageau-ing

- We go through no stretches where we're minus 4+ starting defensemen. Roy gets to play "his guys". We trade Pulock and Mayfield, and Roy has a full season of defensemen more suited to his style in Deangelo and Boqvist.

- Sorokin, another year away from his back surgery approaches the level we saw him at 2 seasons ago.

and the kicker... New special teams coaches come in and make an improvement. The team is still in the bottom third in both categories, but you can now add the PP% and PK% and reach 100%. The team continues to take very few penalties, so special teams is now a net positive.
______________________________________________________________________________________

If all of that happens... yeah, we maybe slide into a wildcard spot. Maybe we even win a round. That, along with the promise of help on the way in Schaefer and Eiserman the following season could right the ship, ticket sales wise. Ownership probably prefers that to the bad vibes that have been festering the last couple of seasons. But there's also the possibility that along with all of that that the Blue Jackets young core takes another step forward, or the stars on the Rangers find their footing and we miss the playoffs altogether.

I'd prioritize maximize the value of the dumb luck lottery win, and add another elite talent for the low cost of one bad season. It's the easiest way to solidify multiple playoff appearances, not just this one. But hey, not my money.

This guy is really still drooling over Duclair...

Give it up. Dude sucks and it was a terrible signing.

 

[The Real JT]

I’ve seen a handful of comments here suggesting that Duclair gets bought out.

There’s no way to sugarcoat what he did last season. This may well end up being a remarkably bad signing. With that being said, while I’m optimistic about the isles retooling I also can’t see them being a legitimate contender next year.

So why buy out Duclair? Give him another year and if we’re lucky, he’ll stay healthy and bounce back. There will be another opportunity to buy him out next season at a lower cost if things don’t work out.

 

[Big L]

I’ve seen a handful of comments here suggesting that Duclair gets bought out.

There’s no way to sugarcoat what he did last season. This may well end up being a remarkably bad signing. With that being said, while I’m optimistic about the isles retooling I also can’t see them being a legitimate contender next year.

So why buy out Duclair? Give him another year and if we’re lucky, he’ll stay healthy and bounce back. There will be another opportunity to buy him out next season at a lower cost if things don’t work out.

I think Duclair and Roy have irreconcilable differences. One or the other has to go, I’d imagine.

 

[Kevin27nyi]

I’ve seen a handful of comments here suggesting that Duclair gets bought out.

There’s no way to sugarcoat what he did last season. This may well end up being a remarkably bad signing. With that being said, while I’m optimistic about the isles retooling I also can’t see them being a legitimate contender next year.

So why buy out Duclair? Give him another year and if we’re lucky, he’ll stay healthy and bounce back. There will be another opportunity to buy him out next season at a lower cost if things don’t work out.

Perfect world you’re right but I think both sides need to move on.

Them granting him an early exit as a favor maybe leads to a summer reconciliation. It would be a better scenario for us unless we need to buy him out for a big fish. But if he were to rebound to a 20 goal guy, that’s great value for 3.25 million.

I just see a split personally.

 

[seafoam]

I’ve seen a handful of comments here suggesting that Duclair gets bought out.

There’s no way to sugarcoat what he did last season. This may well end up being a remarkably bad signing. With that being said, while I’m optimistic about the isles retooling I also can’t see them being a legitimate contender next year.

So why buy out Duclair? Give him another year and if we’re lucky, he’ll stay healthy and bounce back. There will be another opportunity to buy him out next season at a lower cost if things don’t work out.

There's no need to buyout Engvall or Duclair in my opinion.

It's not like there are prospects knocking on the door in Bridgeport.

 

[Arsenalogist24]

Dook is a guy who clearly has some issues. 9 teams in however many years or whatever it is. The cap hit is fine but giving term to someone like him was just another Lou contract debacle.

 

[WangMustGo]

I think the team can be repositioned to be playoff competitive rather quickly. Cup competitive? Outside of a hot streak, then doubtful.

Buyout Duclair, trade JGP at the draft for a 2nd rounder, rebuild the 3rd and 4th line via trade or UFAs, trade Barzal for a 20-22 young NHLer and mid 6 player or something else. I would stay short on UFA deals for 3/4th liners. Isles need flexibility with the roster next 2 seasons.

Trade Lee at the deadline, he’ll command a first if he’s got 18-20+ goals. Casey might be a deadline casualty as well(Schaefer plus 3 first next year in a deep draft…).

The D is workable, needs a legit strategy and coaching. I’m ok with keeping Dobson, if trading Barzal.

Goaltending is more than fine. I’m not sold on Sorokin in the playoffs yet, but that’s a future item to discover. If he gets injured the season is down the drain and that’s ok bc that forces their hand on adjusting the roster.

I don’t hate it, but I just don’t see this core winning a cup, and for that reason i I would blow the majority of it up.

I would move Horvat, I just don’t think he will be at his peak by the time we are competing for a cup. Move Barzal this offseason too. Try to move Pelech/Pulock/Mayfield, ideally at least 2 of themI’d trade JGP and Lee at the deadline.

I would be fine keeping Dobson, but I wouldn’t be opposed to moving him if he got back a haul.

Sorokin I would prefer to keep, but if we moved him I wouldn’t be too upset.

 

[Throttle]

I don’t hate it, but I just don’t see this core winning a cup, and for that reason i I would blow the majority of it up.

I would move Horvat, I just don’t think he will be at his peak by the time we are competing for a cup. Move Barzal this offseason too. Try to move Pelech/Pulock/Mayfield, ideally at least 2 of themI’d trade JGP and Lee at the deadline.

I would be fine keeping Dobson, but I wouldn’t be opposed to moving him if he got back a haul.

Sorokin I would prefer to keep, but if we moved him I wouldn’t be too upset.

What does winning a cup really mean? Colorado looks like they should win cups all day long, but they don’t. Same with EDM and Carolina.

I think the fan viewpoint of I want a 5-10 year cup contender window with every core player running at their peak is just so rare, let alone actually winning the Cup. There’s way too many factors that happen. My guess is in the cap era that window is going to be even shorter with 5 years max as teams will always have to shed key players, which impacts that window.

 

[WangMustGo]

What does winning a cup really mean? Colorado looks like they should win cups all day long, but they don’t. Same with EDM and Carolina.

I think the fan viewpoint of I want a 5-10 year cup contender window with every core player running at their peak is just so rare, let alone actually winning the Cup. There’s way too many factors that happen. My guess is in the cap era that window is going to be even shorter with 5 years max as teams will always have to shed key players, which impacts that window.

I guess a team you look at in the preseason and think that’s a team that will go deep into the playoffs. A team like Dallas that continues to pump in talent through the draft and has top end talent to win a cup. I think you need at least 2 elite pieces to be an annual contender. McKinnon/Makar, Drai/Mcdavid, Barkov/Tkachuk. And to surround that talent with young cost controlled players.

Winning the cup is exceptionally rare this day and age, but that should always be the goal. I just don’t see the pieces here that look like core pieces to a cup team. Maybe Sorokin, but outside of that I don’t see anyone.

 

[JJ18Sniper]

There's no need to buyout Engvall or Duclair in my opinion.

It's not like there are prospects knocking on the door in Bridgeport.

I would also hold off on buying them out until the cap space is truly needed.
The buyout amount reduces each year and you can hope for a rebound in play.

As the cap grows, their deals will become more tolerable anywhere.

Bridgeport is always an option for the ~1.15M savings during the season.

 

[Throttle]

I would also hold off on buying them out until the cap space is truly needed.
The buyout amount reduces each year and you can hope for a rebound in play.

As the cap grows, their deals will become more tolerable anywhere.

Bridgeport is always an option for the ~1.15M savings during the season.

Maybe bc you want to build a culture of competitiveness for the rest of the team that lazy and inconsistent play doesn’t build a winner? It’s more than just a cap number…

 

[MJF]

There's no need to buyout Engvall or Duclair in my opinion.

It's not like there are prospects knocking on the door in Bridgeport.

Unfortunately this is correct.

As a reminder to everyone, there are only 2 buyout slots available to a team each season. The Islanders have 3 buyout candidates, imho. Choose wisely.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

Unfortunately this is correct.

As a reminder to everyone, there are only 2 buyout slots available to a team each season. The Islanders have 3 buyout candidates, imho. Choose wisely.

Unless something incredibly unlikely happens, like Marner signs here, I don't think there's a huge rush to buy out the bad contracts this summer.

Next season is in all likelihood going to be a transition year. Eat another year on the Mayfield, Engvall and Duclair contracts, then re-evaluate the situations in the summer of 2026.

 

[seabass45]

There's no need to buyout Engvall or Duclair in my opinion.

It's not like there are prospects knocking on the door in Bridgeport.

Agreed. And it's beyond that: the reason for buying out is to use the resulting cap space and I'm not seeing a good case why we should be going all in for anyone in UFA. You can waive them if you want to bring prospects up, but for now I think the preference is to just reduce the buyout cost (currently 10 years for Engvall!).

 

[MJF]

Agreed. And it's beyond that: the reason for buying out is to use the resulting cap space and I'm not seeing a good case why we should be going all in for anyone in UFA. You can waive them if you want to bring prospects up, but for now I think the preference is to just reduce the buyout cost (currently 10 years for Engvall!).

This is the corner Lou painted himself into

 

[Throttle]

Agreed. And it's beyond that: the reason for buying out is to use the resulting cap space and I'm not seeing a good case why we should be going all in for anyone in UFA. You can waive them if you want to bring prospects up, but for now I think the preference is to just reduce the buyout cost (currently 10 years for Engvall!).

The team survived with Ricky D’s buyout forever - never mattered in the grand scheme of things.

You want to get rid of these guys if you want to establish a winning culture and move on from Lou’s mistakes. If you keep the current coach, he doesn’t want them either.

 

[seabass45]

The team survived with Ricky D’s buyout forever - never mattered in the grand scheme of things.

You want to get rid of these guys if you want to establish a winning culture and move on from Lou’s mistakes. If you keep the current coach, he doesn’t want them either.

Did this one ever count against the cap? I thought this was the free lockout buyout. Which, believe me, if the option existed for these two it would be done already.

 

[seafoam]

Did this one ever count against the cap? I thought this was the free lockout buyout. Which, believe me, if the option existed for these two it would be done already.

It was an amnesty buyout it never had cap implications.