Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2024-25: Re-Tool, Re-Group, Re-Mix, Re-Build

Have some time to kill today so I ran some numbers on what the cap would look like if we made a trade for Petterson based around Dobson, and also did not bring back Nelson or Palmieri:

__________________________________________________________________________________________
Anders Lee 7M - Bo Horvat 8.5M - Mat Barzal 9.15M
Max Tsyplakov 2.5M - Elias Petterson 11.6M - Simon Holmstrom 4M
Anthony Duclair 3.5M - JG Pageau 5M - Casey Cizikas 2.5M
Pierre Engvall 3M - Kyle Maclean .775M - Marc Gatcomb .775M

Offense = 58.3

Alex Romanov 6M - Tony DeAngelo 1.25M
Adam Pelech 5.75M - Ryan Pulock 6.15M
Scott Perunovich - 1.50M - Scott Mayfield 3.5M

Defense = 24.15

Ilya Sorokin - 8.25M
Semyon Varlamov - 2.75M

Goaltending = 11

Total = 93.45

_________________________________________________________________________________________

With the cap expected to go up to 93-ish next year, this is in that range - however, it would mean not traveling with an extra forward or defenseman, and not making any free agency acquisitions. The most logical ways to clear extra salary would be to:

- Trade Varly and play Hogberg. We should probably do this regardless. His NTC changes to a M-NTC this offfseason. It might not make Ilya too happy, but it is a business after all. This would save about 2M next season

- Trade Cizikas while he still has value. This only saves enough cap room to make sense if you call someone up internally who is making under 1M - that would save an additional 1.5M

- Buy out Pierre Engvall. Personally wouldn't be in favor of that one, but it would save 2M for the next 5 seasons... then cost 1M for 5 after that. Of course you'd need to call up a player in his place, so it really only creates 1M or so of space for the next 5 years.

So yeah, it's possible to add Petterson for sure, would just be a pretty tight fit next season.
Thanks for the effort. To me that is a very top heavy lineup. The bottom six forwards aren’t very good and the defense is not great. By doing this we are going the way of the Leafs. For me this is biggest argument for trading Dobson in a EP deal. The entire cap gets out of whack. Barzy, EP and Horvat together take up too much combined cap for 3 very good but not elite players.
 
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Thanks for the effort. To me that is a very top heavy lineup. The bottom six forwards aren’t very good and the defense is not great. By doing this we are going the way of the Leafs. For me this is biggest argument for trading Dobson in a EP deal. The entire cap gets out of whack. Barzy, EP and Horvat together take up too much combined cap for 3 very good but not elite players.
I agree. However we need to find a 2C somehow next season. I'd love if we could deal Dobson for Byfield, seems like he's stagnating a little bit over in LA. Seems like Clarke could be had too... those are the type of contracts that could immediately fix our cap structure and help kick off a retool
 
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You made it on an assumption based on your bias.
My bias?

You do understand that those proposing a trade of Barzal for EP40 just a few weeks ago tried to convince the rest of us on these boards that the Islanders play better and win more when Barzal was not playing ie. When he was injured. Throttle led that charge until that argument fell flat on its face and now the same few are using the same voodoo statistics to try to convince us that tackling a $92M contract with a player carrying terrible baggage is a great deal for the Islanders and some would even trade Barzal for that nonsense.

So if my “bias” is that Barzal represents a net positive rather than a negative for this then guilty as charged!
 
Probably, bc after Barzal went down the team was humming along, don’t mind the injuries to Pelech, Reiley and Romanov thereafter.
 
Probably, bc after Barzal went down the team was humming along, don’t mind the injuries to Pelech, Reiley and Romanov thereafter.
god just give it up already! Lol. A moment ago you said he was a talented player who just couldn’t move the “needle” now you are going back to your old argument that Barzal makes the team worse. Which is it? That’s why I can’t take your points seriously.
 
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So are 92M with bonuses, 3rd highest player in the league, and ranked 116th in scoring amongst all skaters.

Inarguable numbers right?

You get paid for past performance and especially for goals. Three straight 30 plus goal seasons, with a season 1 shy of 40.

He gets Selke votes. He was in the midst of a great season. 25 years old at the time of signing. Contract all the way through his prime until 33 years old.

He's having a shitty season from a point production standpoint because there is something rotten in the locker room, not his talent.

Miss me with the "X highest paid player in the league" BS. The next, young top guy up for a contract almost automatically move into the top 5 highest paid realm (you see the same thing in football, Dak is 1st and Mahomes is T-12th in AAV).
 
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I love when you skip over my posts debunking your nonsense and then just repeat it to someone else lmao. Scroll up a lil bit my guy, you should have gotten a notification... but in case you missed it:

Also, maybe you've been too busy to notice but they put Barzal and Horvat back together at the beginning of January. Horvat has 8 goals in those 10 games... seem to remember him having a bit of a drought before that. Team is 8-2 over that stretch. That's what you want to break up?
👍
 
Love ya, but that would never hold up in either a court or the CBA rules. Many famous pairs in sports history had this issue.
That really sucks for these franchises. Who here gets essentially a $92M raise and then sulks and performs poorly because Joe at the next cubicle is making faces at me.
 
Kudos to those still trying to explain why Barzal is a very good player, and Petterson is also very good and the two (while very different types of players) have flaws and roughly the same impact on the game. It is obvious who has the actual information, watches both of these players, and understands the game of hockey, and those who think that referring to Barzal as a 'figure skater' is an actual argument.
This much is clear to me - the Isles would be better if they had both Barzal and Petterson than if they had one or the other. Whether it's worth giving up the assets needed to acquire Petterson is another question - I personally would be wary if it cost the Isles Dobson, Brock, a first round pick and prospect like D. Nelson; and still need to clear out additional cap to make it work.
👍. Good points. At one point I thought having both would be a good idea until I looked at his contract. And I thought to myself why is a man who just signed a $92m contract at the center of any controversy regardless of who is at fault and dragging the rest of the team down.

But the worse risk is that that contract is just too much that the Isles wouldn’t be able to construct a balanced roster unless Vancouver was willing to eat some of it.
 
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The edge in a salary cap league is to find the players whose stats outpace their AAV. It's also to find players whose contributions show up in ways that might not show up on their own stat sheet, but will on the team's.

I posted those charts before to show that Petterson and Barzal both have very similar impacts on a game. The "figure skating" so many like to knock him for serves to keep the puck away from the other team, meaning they're not scoring. So even when his line is scoring less, they're holding their opposition to less goals... and are outscoring their opponents at the same rate.

Doesn't mean we shouldn't want EP40 because we should. It just means that as the engines of their respective lines at 5v5, Barzal has a slightly stronger impact and gets paid 2.5M less. Petey will have more of an impact on the PP. He would be huge here, but removing Barzal to add him could end up not adding any value at all, before even considering the differences in their contracts.

I looked at and posted the numbers with and without Barzal in the lineup (when he was out extended periods of time) and the stats didn't back this up. The team was better in most categories without him if I recall correctly. Here it is again in case you wanted to look at it:

1738266879292.png


As I mentioned in the posted I originally supplied that data: I am not a math wiz and was at work being interrupted while looking at some of the data so there could definitely be errors.

I'm not advocating for or against a deal involving the two players, but against this narrative that the team is so much better when he's playing than without. He's a very flawed player, like a few of us have been saying for quite some time, and a select few refuse to acknowledge it (not you).

I haven't looked at any of the Petterson numbers, other than what you provided, but my hesitation with acquiring a player like that is that he seems to be a bit mentally soft. Whether that's a fair judgement or not for me to make I don't know, given we don't know what exactly the dynamic is in that locker room. That said, you need to get talent in order to compete so finding a way to bring in more is always welcome and his age fits better than Miller for this team.

Just one note on the advanced stats, we've been looking at expected this and expected that for a decent chunk of time now but the expectations have rarely ever come to fruition. I think it's useful to tell part of the story but if the expectations never meet reality they're not nearly that important.
 
My bias?

You do understand that those proposing a trade of Barzal for EP40 just a few weeks ago tried to convince the rest of us on these boards that the Islanders play better and win more when Barzal was not playing ie. When he was injured. Throttle led that charge until that argument fell flat on its face and now the same few are using the same voodoo statistics to try to convince us that tackling a $92M contract with a player carrying terrible baggage is a great deal for the Islanders and some would even trade Barzal for that nonsense.

So if my “bias” is that Barzal represents a net positive rather than a negative for this then guilty as charged!

No, as usual, you didn't engage in the argument. You made some vague comments about not trusting stats and wanting to removing outliers, except for the outliers you like. You completely ignored the statistics provided that were presented without any desire to trade or keep Barzal but to have an honest discussion about what is happening on the ice when he's in or out of the lineup.
 
I looked at and posted the numbers with and without Barzal in the lineup (when he was out extended periods of time) and the stats didn't back this up. The team was better in most categories without him if I recall correctly. Here it is again in case you wanted to look at it:

View attachment 969599

As I mentioned in the posted I originally supplied that data: I am not a math wiz and was at work being interrupted while looking at some of the data so there could definitely be errors.

I'm not advocating for or against a deal involving the two players, but against this narrative that the team is so much better when he's playing than without. He's a very flawed player, like a few of us have been saying for quite some time, and a select few refuse to acknowledge it (not you).

I haven't looked at any of the Petterson numbers, other than what you provided, but my hesitation with acquiring a player like that is that he seems to be a bit mentally soft. Whether that's a fair judgement or not for me to make I don't know, given we don't know what exactly the dynamic is in that locker room. That said, you need to get talent in order to compete so finding a way to bring in more is always welcome and his age fits better than Miller for this team.

Just one note on the advanced stats, we've been looking at expected this and expected that for a decent chunk of time now but the expectations have rarely ever come to fruition. I think it's useful to tell part of the story but if the expectations never meet reality they're not nearly that important.
“He’s a very flawed player”

He’s also a Calder winner and a point per game player when the system he’s playing suits his playing style well.

There are no flawless players playing the game today but to constantly zero in on aspects of his game that you don’t like and ignoring all the points he racks up and how much he elevates other players game like Horvats is being disingenuous and it’s tiring to read. He’s also quite underrated defensively and there is no doubt he has improved that aspect of his game.

When I read these posts I just see a bunch of fans who view Barzal through a distorted lens that allows them to see only the 1 bad decision he makes in a game and ignore the 10 other fabulous plays he makes otherwise.
 
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No, as usual, you didn't engage in the argument. You made some vague comments about not trusting stats and wanting to removing outliers, except for the outliers you like. You completely ignored the statistics provided that were presented without any desire to trade or keep Barzal but to have an honest discussion about what is happening on the ice when he's in or out of the lineup.
You know if you kept your emotions out of it we probably would see a lot more eye to eye. I imagine all my posts appear outrageous to you and a “dishonest” argument to you. Perhaps it’s not me. I’m just an Islander fan trying to make sense of things. And though I will not take back the majority of my past arguments with you because as you can see for yourself I was right all along, I will not play this game to make this a fight when there is no fight intended. There are plenty of other posters here making nonsensical arguments daily but if the argument agrees with yours…. Well we all know how that goes. Go ahead and paint me to whatever fits your fancy. I’m powerless to stop it.
 
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Anyone with advanced stats training will emphasize that we simply do not have the statistics necessary in a highly complex, team-game in which there is a great deal of randomness to truly isolate the impact of any one player. The best we can do is draw imperfect insinuations from these stats, combined with watching the games and listening to the perspectives of others (especially objective non-Isles fans).
Stats alone cannot tell the whole story, and if you try to force them to, you will be wrong and end up looking very foolish.
 
Anyone with advanced stats training will emphasize that we simply do not have the statistics necessary in a highly complex, team-game in which there is a great deal of randomness to truly isolate the impact of any one player. The best we can do is draw imperfect insinuations from these stats, combined with watching the games and listening to the perspectives of others (especially objective non-Isles fans).
Stats alone cannot tell the whole story, and if you try to force them to, you will be wrong and end up looking very foolish.
Yes exactly and I’m someone trained in advanced statistics.
 
To my eyes, every time Barzy gets hurt the team absorbs it and takes a deep breath and dig down harder, which to me is good because they seem to play slightly better when this happens. Then Barzy comes back and most expect us to hit another Gear and play even better and That Just Does Not Seem To Happen. To my eyes, it seems we stub out Toes when he comes back. Barzy just cannot seem to take it to the next level, hence neither does the team. Do I Dislike Barzy? No, I just do not think he has what it takes to be elite. He is a Very Talented player that the sum does not seem to equal the parts..
 
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To my eyes, every time Barzy gets hurt the team absorbs it and takes a deep breath and dig down harder, which to me is good because they seem to play slightly better when this happens. Then Barzy comes back and most expect us to hit another Gear and play even better and That Just Does Not Seem To Happen. To my eyes, it seems we stub out Toes when he comes back. Barzy just cannot seem to take it to the next level, hence neither does the team. Do I Dislike Barzy? No, I just do not think he has what it takes to be elite. He is a Very Talented player that the sum does not seem to equal the parts..
Mars, we’re in a 5 game winning streak since Barzy returned from his injury and got his feet up to speed. He’s not McDavid but be glad we have him and at a reasonable price.

I wish Isles fans embraced the positivity that Roy brings to this organization as I have. I’m an Islander fan. I cheer for my team and continue to believe no matter how dire the situation. The odds are stacked against us but players like Barzal are exactly the reason why I believe that anything is possible because oftentimes he makes what appears impossible possible.
 
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“He’s a very flawed player”

He’s also a Calder winner and a point per game player when the system he’s playing suits his playing style well.

You're cherry picking things, again. He's a point per game player when playing the system that suits his playing style? He's been in the NHL since 2017-18 and he's been a point per game player exactly once, his first season. How good was that team again? If the playing style required is the Doug Weight offense then it's very clear we should be moving on from him.

Also, you liked to mention outliers the last time we were chatting and that first season sure seems like an outlier.

You just move goalposts and make amorphous posts so you're never wrong and you don't engage with actual facts.

There are no flawless players playing the game today but to constantly zero in on aspects of his game that you don’t like and ignoring all the points he racks up and how much he elevates other players game like Horvats is being disingenuous and it’s tiring to read. He’s also quite underrated defensively and there is no doubt he has improved that aspect of his game.

There are no flawless players, that's true but there are better players and/or better players that fit with this particular team and the style they want to play. Once again, you're providing no information for how and when he's elevating these other players while I provided a very detailed table demonstrating the net negative value he has on the team when he's playing compared to when he's not. I wasn't looking for that information because I want Barzal to be bad, I was looking because you (and others) kept asserting that the opposite was true. It turns out that opinion is wrong, unless you want to adjust for these short spurts where he's playing very well.

I do agree that the defensive side of his game is something he's improved upon over his time.

When I read these posts I just see a bunch of fans who view Barzal through a distorted lens that allows them to see only the 1 bad decision he makes in a game and ignore the 10 other fabulous plays he makes otherwise.

I've broken down specific plays where I think he's made boneheaded decisions, I've also highlighted his great ones. He's a tremendous talent, but that hasn't translated into success for him or the team over a long period of time. He needs a very specific type of linemate in order to have success and is exceptional in exactly one area (maybe two if we're counting takeaways?). Everything else is just good or average. He isn't some generational talent. He's gotten better at playing a complete game over the years, more north south. Unfortunately, that hasn't been enough for this team.

You know if you kept your emotions out of it we probably would see a lot more eye to eye. I imagine all my posts appear outrageous to you and a “dishonest” argument to you. Perhaps it’s not me. I’m just an Islander fan trying to make sense of things. And though I will not take back the majority of my past arguments with you because as you can see for yourself I was right all along I will not play this game to make this a fight when there is no fight intended. There are plenty of other posters here making nonsensical arguments daily but if the argument agrees with yours…. Well we all know how that goes.

You don't present any information when there's a disagreement, you just do the vague posting. It's insanity that you think you were "right all along" when there are 7 seasons before this one that demonstrate my position perfectly, and even this season the player you're claiming to be right about in being this force on the ice has a whopping 19 points in 28 games, with just 6 goals. If this is it, boy are we in trouble.

Go ahead, nitpick coaches and linemates and playing styles to justify your insatiable need to propel Barzal into the elite tier of NHLers.

And how does it go if I disagree with someone's arguments? I've posted GDTs and not much else the entirety of this season. You're still doing the same schtick, just to other people.

Yes exactly and I’m someone trained in advanced statistics.

And somehow providing any statistics, advanced or otherwise, has yet to happen in any of your posts and you refuse to tackle any arguments.

And to be perfectly clear, you can win with Barzal on your roster. You cannot win with Barzal as the most important player on your roster. He's a #2 or #3 piece who will excel way more if there are players ahead of him on the depth chart.

I'll go back to not posting, no worries.
 
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You're cherry picking things, again. He's a point per game player when playing the system that suits his playing style? He's been in the NHL since 2017-18 and he's been a point per game player exactly once, his first season. How good was that team again? If the playing style required is the Doug Weight offense then it's very clear we should be moving on from him.

Also, you liked to mention outliers the last time we were chatting and that first season sure seems like an outlier.

You just move goalposts and make amorphous posts so you're never wrong and you don't engage with actual facts.



There are no flawless players, that's true but there are better players and/or better players that fit with this particular team and the style they want to play. Once again, you're providing no information for how and when he's elevating these other players while I provided a very detailed table demonstrating the net negative value he has on the team when he's playing compared to when he's not. I wasn't looking for that information because I want Barzal to be bad, I was looking because you (and others) kept asserting that the opposite was true. It turns out that opinion is wrong, unless you want to adjust for these short spurts where he's playing very well.

I do agree that the defensive side of his game is something he's improved upon over his time.



I've broken down specific plays where I think he's made boneheaded decisions, I've also highlighted his great ones. He's a tremendous talent, but that hasn't translated into success for him or the team over a long period of time. He needs a very specific type of linemate in order to have success and is exceptional in exactly one area (maybe two if we're counting takeaways?). Everything else is just good or average. He isn't some generational talent. He's gotten better at playing a complete game over the years, more north south. Unfortunately, that hasn't been enough for this team.



You don't present any information when there's a disagreement, you just do the vague posting. It's insanity that you think you were "right all along" when there are 7 seasons before this one that demonstrate my position perfectly, and even this season the player you're claiming to be right about in being this force on the ice has a whopping 19 points in 28 games, with just 6 goals. If this is it, boy are we in trouble.

Go ahead, nitpick coaches and linemates and playing styles to justify your insatiable need to propel Barzal into the elite tier of NHLers.

And how does it go if I disagree with someone's arguments? I've posted GDTs and not much else the entirety of this season. You're still doing the same schtick, just to other people.



And have someone providing any statistics, advanced or otherwise, has yet to happen in any of your posts and you refuse to tackle any arguments.

And to be perfectly clear, you can win with Barzal on your roster. You cannot win with Barzal as the most important player on your roster. He's a #2 or #3 piece who will excel way more if there are players ahead of him on the depth chart.

I'll go back to not posting, no worries.
And I’m slammed for being wordy? Lol

I don’t know how to answer all of this because it’s like rapid fire.

I don’t know how more precise I could have been in answering any past arguments we may have had in the past. What I do know is that Roy has implemented practically to a T every system change I said this team needed to make 3 years ago to head back in the right direction. From the hybrid man on man defense, to the fast breaks, to the increased physicality, to stop retreating and blocking Sorokins line of sight. Also did I not say Barzal would return to a PPG player when such a system was implemented? When he was “unleashed”. You claimed the game had moved past him and other players had caught up to him.

This is why in Roy I trust not that chess match you were endorsing. Also I had made it very clear that JT was our generational elite talent and not Barzal but he unfairly gets the lions share of blame when things go wrong because he was next in line when Tavares walked. I never said he was an elite level player.

I value the team over the player. You need to learn that.
 
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PK, things were going just fine. Can’t you just stick to the game day posts? You’re good at that.

Edit: ok read your last sentence from the wall of words. We’re good.👍
 
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