Top 2 Landing Spots for Jean-Gabriel Pageau (and Anders Lee): Dallas and Washington
When it comes to shedding bigger cap hits, getting younger, and restocking the prospect pool while adding picks, the Islanders must avoid setting themselves on a prolonged rebuild. Dumping Lee and Pageau (JGP) while retaining their salaries only to receive a second-round pick in return is not a worthwhile move. This is especially true for a team that often overspends on mid-tier options—targeting players like Jonathan Marchessault but ending up with someone like Anthony Duclair. If the goal is to maximize assets and manage them effectively, Lee and Pageau will likely hold more value at the 2026 Trade Deadline (TDL).
If a move happens this season, Washington and Dallas are the only contenders that align for a trade. Both can absorb the cap, have a role JGP can fill, and offer something the Islanders could use in return—more on Lee Later.
Washington Capitals: A Model for Retooling
Washington provides an excellent example of how to retool on the fly. Despite several mediocre seasons marked by aging players, injuries, and hefty contracts, they’ve made savvy moves, such as signing Dylan Strome, trading for Rasmus Sandin, and acquiring players like Pierre-Luc Dubois (PDL) and Andrew Mangiapane. Their trades for Jakob Chychrun (for a third-round pick and Jensen) and strategic free-agent signings like Roy demonstrate a smart approach.
Washington also boasts one of the NHL’s top 10 prospect pools, featuring talents like Leonard, Miroshnichenko, Cristall, Hutson, Parascak, Protas, Iorio, Chesley, Lapierre, and Muggli. Their top five prospects are elite.
Washington is one of the few teams capable of absorbing JGP’s cap hit. Adding Pageau would give them another strong option at center and a right-handed face-off specialist. This move could shift Lars Eller to LW and Mangiapane to RW, optimizing their lineup. Pageau could command a package similar to Kyle Palmieri’s, potentially including a second-round pick and a prospect like Vincent Iorio. Retaining 50% of JGP’s salary would increase his trade value, but the Islanders need to remain competitive next year, and JGP can help achieve that.
Dallas Stars: An Intriguing Fit
Dallas could offer a prospect like Emil Hemming or a second-round pick, depending on salary retention. For the Islanders, it’s essential to get tangible value for JGP—this shouldn’t be treated as a cap-dumping scenario. If other teams approach with lowball offers, the Islanders should decline and retain JGP. He remains an asset to the team.
Anders Lee’s Trade Value
Trading Lee might require retaining 50% of his cap hit, but what would the return look like? If it’s a B-level prospect and a second-round pick, the Islanders should decline. Lee’s contributions on the ice and in the locker room justify keeping him if the return isn’t worthwhile. Additionally, with the salary cap expected to rise to at least $92.5 million—and potentially as high as $95-96 million pending a new CBA—the Islanders may have more flexibility next season.
Final Thoughts
If by January the Islanders trade Nelson to Dallas for a 2025 first-round pick and Bourque, and Palmieri to Washington for a 2025 first-round pick, they could then wait for the TDL market to develop and evolve. Injuries to Stanley Cup contenders could shift the landscape, increasing the value of players like JGP, Lee and others, like Cizikas and Varlamov.
If a team offers a first-round pick for JGP (50% retained), the Islanders should act. Otherwise, keeping JGP and reassessing his market in the offseason or at next year’s deadline might be the smarter play. Without Nelson and Palmieri, the Islanders’ tough schedule leading up to February could further push them down the standings, improving their draft lottery odds, which will be the focus of my next blog post, The Importance of James Hagens
