On Marner -
Right now, it’s full-on damage control in Toronto. Listening to Elliotte Friedman—who is usually fantastic—he seems to be in the Leafs’ pocket, downplaying the situation significantly.
Friedman mentioned that when Carolina inquired about a Marner-for-Rantanen trade, the Leafs felt they had to ask. But that’s not true. If they truly preferred Marner over Rantanen, they wouldn’t have entertained the idea. If they were confident in re-signing Marner, they wouldn’t have considered it. The fact that they did ask means they’re weighing whether they’d be better off with Rantanen instead.
When his co-host pushed back—comparing the situation to a shaky relationship—Friedman dismissed it, suggesting there’s no commitment from Marner’s side either. He then claimed there’s been too much talk about Rantanen and that the real issue is that the story got out. Seriously? The fact that this leaked is important. It signals that Marner doesn’t want to go to Carolina and wants control over his future.
Let’s not ignore the biggest red flag: the Leafs have yet to offer Marner a contract all season. If they were serious about keeping him, wouldn’t they have started negotiations by now?
Marner is a Toronto boy, yet he’s been made the scapegoat for their playoff failures. Most of the fanbase wants him gone. And in all likelihood, this postseason will be another first-round exit, with Marner leading the team in playoff points, time on ice among forwards, and playing key roles on the power play, penalty kill, and even strength—only to be blamed again.
When he hits free agency, expect teams like the Kings, Canucks, Predators, Blue Jackets, Devils, Rangers, Bruins, Vegas, Utah, and the Islanders to pursue him.
Could the Islanders actually land Marner? It’s unlikely, but not impossible. Lou Lamoriello drafted him and has close ties to key Isles players. After the Tavares debacle, signing Marner would be sweet revenge—he’d be the first major free agent ever to sign with the Isles. Adding Marner could bring the high-end offensive change they desperately need, but it would take a serious financial commitment—likely over $12M, possibly $13M per year. To make it work, they’d need to go cheap on the fourth line, much like the Avalanche, Leafs, Oilers, and Lightning do now.
For those worried about the cap—don’t be. The NHL and NHLPA begin CBA talks on April 1st, and the salary cap is set to rise. Next season, it will likely hit $95M+, with projections of $104M the following year. The Isles will also have Lee and Pageau’s contracts coming off the books, allowing them to redistribute cap space more effectively. With young talent like Eiserman, Ritchie, Nelson, and their 2025 first-round pick potentially on entry-level deals, the structure could work.
Marner turns 28 this May. A seven-year deal would take him to 34. That’s a risk worth taking.
