Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Any 2-year deals for Holmstrom or Maclean will see their AAV over 1m.

Not necessarily. There is definitely some negotiating to be had there, especially with the barely of a raise qualifying order. Sure, Simon's "could be" a million per season coming off 15 goals, but I don't see Kyle's reaching that number....Either way, I highly doubt it is for the low-end number you predict

 

[SI]

This all assumes the Isles want to trade Lee, which I 100% believe they have no interest in doing.

It’s all fan driven angst to ‘get rid of’ someone bc they want shiner toys.

You also have UT adding $40M into the pool, that was never used before. There’s plenty of room to do deals.

I’m more inclined to see Lou trade JGP in a ‘hockey trade’ bc he does have value to other teams. The isles need a different allocation for that money. Also, Lou demonstrated with Tony that where he’s not getting hockey value back, he’ll move a guy out.

My post was a walkthrough of possibilities of who could be moved - Lee, Nelson, Palmieri, or JGP.

I had a previous post that modeled if they didn't move anyone.

I think folks get so triggered - they lose their reading comprehension.

 

[SI]

I understand that you doubt it, but they do not have to do anything else - they do not need to negotiate.
The team must qualify them or they lose their rights. Both players do not have arbitration rights, so the players can accept, try to negotiate a 2-year deal - if the team is willing - or sit out. The QO for Holmstrom is 1y/.875K and Maclean at 1y/.813K. Next season they are RFAs again but with arbitration rights so they have more leverage.

A player like Bobby McCann from the Leafs had rights because of his age and was able to sign him to a 2-year 1.35 AAV.

LL might want to lock them up to a 2 year deal, so they may be open to a 2 year deal, but also the players may want to take a chance on themselves for a higher payday next season.

 

[periferal]

Vegas somehow behind the 8 ball in cap, can send Reilley Smith and his 2yr MNTC at $5M p/year to dumbo’s paradise to nowhere in Pittsburgh and get a 3rd rounder back in a flat cap, yet the Isles have to send Lee and TWO 2nd rounders with a $4M cap bump for a guy averaging 25Gs per year and a team captain…

Carolina paid a 3rd rounder for Kuzy with another year tacked on at $7.8 for a guy dogging and highly suspected ‘extracurricular’ behavior, and Wash paid 50% retention. This was about as unmovable contract out there and someone PAID an asset for it.

and people want Lou fired? Yeesh.

I cannot believe how you present your arguments. You present one thing and then conflate it with another while totally missing the point. I guess that's what happens when you have an ax to grind and just want to grind it regardless of cohesion.

Let me present one...I guess because garth snow took advantage of Peter Chiarelli that only Chiarelli deserved to be fired. Great job snow!

The issue isn't whether or not any GM can dump a bad contract...It's continually having to dump bad contracts year after year, while not getting out of the 1st round (and barely making the playoffs at all). This is a GM resume you're seriously defending?

And you used Vegas as an example without mentioning that they did this little thing called winning a Cup. Forget winning a Cup because I don't want to make the goals around here too lofty for the Lou cult members...The day Lou gets the the semi-finals again without Trotz I will happily support him getting an extension until he's 90. In the meantime, sadly there are too many Isles fans who will tolerate these mediocre results we've seen since trotz left that are going to be the norm and 100% his responsibility until Lou is 100.

Now...Let's talk about those Laine rumors...If we get him for Wahlstrom and a 2nd, with Columbus retaining 50%) we are totally set. In Lou we trust!!!

 

[impaaaaaact]

My list of UFA forwards that fit the roster's biggest needs isn't the sexiest... but again, I think that the #1 priority should be stabilizing our historically bad PK. Here's a list of UFAs who scored 15+ goals last season and played significant PK time

Teuvo Teravainen
Jake Debrusk
Adam Henrique
Dakota Joshua
Elias Lindholm
Chandler Stephenson

These are realistically the guys we should be targeting IMO, with Teravainen, Debrusk, and Joshua being my favorite adds. Lou has history with Henrique and loves a vet, so he might be the most likely here. These aren't the sexiest names in FA, but they may be the ones that are best suited the help plug the holes in the ship.

It's also worth noting that Tsyplakov scored 4 SHG in the KHL last year. It's fully plausible he ends up with both PP and PK time next season.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

I understand that you doubt it, but they do not have to do anything else - they do not need to negotiate.
The team must qualify them or they lose their rights. Both players do not have arbitration rights, so the players can accept, try to negotiate a 2-year deal - if the team is willing - or sit out. The QO for Holmstrom is 1y/.875K and Maclean at 1y/.813K. Next season they are RFAs again but with arbitration rights so they have more leverage.

A player like Bobby McCann from the Leafs had rights because of his age and was able to sign him to a 2-year 1.35 AAV.

LL might want to lock them up to a 2 year deal, so they may be open to a 2 year deal, but also the players may want to take a chance on themselves for a higher payday next season.

I know the process and am perfectly aware that they dont have to do anything else and neither of them have arbitration rights...

We just have a difference of opinion on what ultimately happens. I think he tries to negotiate a 2-year deal with both of them- so he doesn't have to worry about them being RFA's next season and can focus on the two bigger names (Dobson and Romanov).

 

[saintunspecified]

These are realistically the guys we should be targeting IMO, with Teravainen, Debrusk, and Joshua being my favorite adds. Lou has history with Henrique and loves a vet, so he might be the most likely here. These aren't the sexiest names in FA, but they may be the ones that are best suited the help plug the holes in the ship.

I'd really love Teravainen depending on the # of years. He'd be a nice fit on the PP as well.

 

[NYI365]

I was browsing the UFA's on Capfriendly and curious about other people's opinions on the following UFA wingers for discussion purposes. Not a good thing when you have to scroll to the right some due to the term our GM gave out to a few players on the Isles page.

Olofsson-28
Marcessault-33
Teravainen- 29
Toffoli-32
Mantha- 29

Debrusk has been discussed in the past.

I wouldn't touch Olofsson with a 10 foot pole. PP Merchant, does not do much else 5 v 5.

 

[saintunspecified]

Dealing Lee would be the way to maximize your return here.

But the cost would be super high in terms of assets. And he has shown that he can play another role - coming to his teammates aid for one thing, which is something I think Pageau can't do.

 

[SI]

I know the process and am perfectly aware that they dont have to do anything else and neither of them have arbitration rights...

We just have a difference of opinion on what ultimately happens. I think he tries to negotiate a 2-year deal with both of them- so he doesn't have to worry about them being RFA's next season and can focus on the two bigger names (Dobson and Romanov).

Fair.
IMO, I think energy will be spent on negotiating with Dobson and Romanov this offseason to lock them up long-term.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Fair.
IMO, I think energy will be spent on negotiating with Dobson and Romanov this offseason to lock them up long-term.

very possible

 

[impaaaaaact]

But the cost would be super high in terms of assets. And he has shown that he can play another role - coming to his teammates aid for one thing, which is something I think Pageau can't do.

Yes, and Lee was certainly better under Roy. With Martin and Clutterbuck possibly going, it’s really him and Mayfield left as our enforcer types. Still, that’s a LOT to pay for that role. How much do you think David Perron commands in FA? That’s basically how much Lee is being overpaid by.

 

[doublechili]

I've seen a few fans throw his name out as one to trade before the deadline.

I don't know if I'm one of the "few fans", but I only mentioned trading Sorokin before his NMC kicks in because other posters were saying that a rebuild now is impossible. So I posted that right now Sorokin, Barzal, Dobson and Romanov have zero trade protection, and other valuable trade chips have only limited NTCs, so a rebuild is still possible. I also posted that I was not in favor of that.

 

[doublechili]

My list of UFA forwards that fit the roster's biggest needs isn't the sexiest... but again, I think that the #1 priority should be stabilizing our historically bad PK. Here's a list of UFAs who scored 15+ goals last season and played significant PK time

Teuvo Teravainen
Jake Debrusk
Adam Henrique
Dakota Joshua
Elias Lindholm
Chandler Stephenson

These are realistically the guys we should be targeting IMO, with Teravainen, Debrusk, and Joshua being my favorite adds. Lou has history with Henrique and loves a vet, so he might be the most likely here. These aren't the sexiest names in FA, but they may be the ones that are best suited the help plug the holes in the ship.

It's also worth noting that Tsyplakov scored 4 SHG in the KHL last year. It's fully plausible he ends up with both PP and PK time next season.

FWIW, I've read that Lindholm will be looking for something like 7x7 - yikes. That's the problem with non-sexy UFAs, you end up paying a lot of $$$ and/or term for a guy who might not move the needle that much.

Now if by some miracle Marchessault really wants to play for Roy again and is willing to sign for just a few years, and if you can trade JGP away and move Barzal back to C and slide Nelson down to 3C, and bring in another winger somehow, you might be looking at a more effective offense with a more Lou-like series of moves. But there's a lot of "ifs" in there.

 

[impaaaaaact]

FWIW, I've read that Lindholm will be looking for something like 7x7 - yikes. That's the problem with non-sexy UFAs, you end up paying a lot of $$$ and/or term for a guy who might not move the needle that much.

Now if by some miracle Marchessault really wants to play for Roy again and is willing to sign for just a few years, and if you can trade JGP away and move Barzal back to C and slide Nelson down to 3C, and bring in another winger somehow, you might be looking at a more effective offense with a more Lou-like series of moves. But there's a lot of "ifs" in there.

Lindholm had one off year this season and it's going to cost him a LOT of money. That being said, in the 5 previous seasons he's averaged 31 goals per 82 games, and has only missed 15 games over that span. He's one of the best in the league on FOs and is an excellent 2 way player - he'd play on our 1st PK and 2nd PP. Adding Lindholm would be the perfect insurance plan to have for Nelson potentially leaving after this season, and if we're moving out a guy like Pageau this is who I'd want to see added.

Remember, he had a 9Mx8 offer that he turned down earlier this season. If you can get him for 7.5x7 (although, apparently the Canucks couldn't), you're getting a pretty steep discount on what his market value was thought to be just a few months ago.

 

[doublechili]

Lindholm had one off year this season and it's going to cost him a LOT of money. That being said, in the 5 previous seasons he's averaged 31 goals per 82 games, and has only missed 15 games over that span. He's one of the best in the league on FOs and is an excellent 2 way player - he'd play on our 1st PK and 2nd PP. Adding Lindholm would be the perfect insurance plan to have for Nelson potentially leaving after this season, and if we're moving out a guy like Pageau this is who I'd want to see added.

Remember, he had a 9Mx8 offer that he turned down earlier this season. If you can get him for 7.5x7 (although, apparently the Canucks couldn't), you're getting a pretty steep discount on what his market value was thought to be just a few months ago.

I've always liked Lindholm - ironically when he was on CAR and was rumored to be available along with Hanifin, I proposed trying to deal for them and lots of posters said Lindholm was a 3rd line C, nothing more. I'd be fine with him - as I said I like his game and he'd be a good fit, but I just don't know if I like him long-term at $7M or more.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I've always liked Lindholm - ironically when he was on CAR and was rumored to be available along with Hanifin, I proposed trying to deal for them and lots of posters said Lindholm was a 3rd line C, nothing more. I'd be fine with him - as I said I like his game and he'd be a good fit, but I just don't know if I like him long-term at $7M or more.

Yeah, unfortunately those are sort of the breaks when you don't have a farm system. If we don't sign someone like Lindholm our options next year for 2C are one of the following:

1. Re-sign Nelson who's first game of Brocktober on that contract will be at age 34
2. Hope to sign whatever Lindholm-esque C happens to be available in UFA next year, who will be at a similar age and price.
3. Play Pageau there
4. Trade assets we don't have for one

This is why the mini retool of trading Nelson and Palmieri and sucking for two years makes sense to me. If we don't win big this year we're kind of f***ed

 

[Osakahaus]

I'd do backflips for Lindholm but he wants Boston. Boston is gonna spend a LOT this offseason.

 

[SCMURRAY]

My list of UFA forwards that fit the roster's biggest needs isn't the sexiest... but again, I think that the #1 priority should be stabilizing our historically bad PK. Here's a list of UFAs who scored 15+ goals last season and played significant PK time

Teuvo Teravainen
Jake Debrusk
Adam Henrique
Dakota Joshua
Elias Lindholm
Chandler Stephenson

These are realistically the guys we should be targeting IMO, with Teravainen, Debrusk, and Joshua being my favorite adds. Lou has history with Henrique and loves a vet, so he might be the most likely here. These aren't the sexiest names in FA, but they may be the ones that are best suited the help plug the holes in the ship.

It's also worth noting that Tsyplakov scored 4 SHG in the KHL last year. It's fully plausible he ends up with both PP and PK time next season.

Henrique already feels like an Islander. Especially is JGP gets shipped off. Not sure Zeek is the answer to 3C in JPGs departure

Fully onboard for anyone else on that list.

 

[IslesNorway]

Henrique already feels like an Islander. Especially is JGP gets shipped off. Not sure Zeek is the answer to 3C in JPGs departure

Just what this team does not need is another old player on an expensive contract. The whole point of getting rid of Pageau is getting younger, faster and cheaper.

 

[SCMURRAY]

Just what this team does not need is another old player on an expensive contract. The whole point of getting rid of Pageau is getting younger, faster and cheaper.

Couldnt agree more but Henrique is such a Lou move

 

[iggy]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1802808380005687580

 

[MJF]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1802808380005687580

Yet IB missed the Blue Jackets firing their coach today

 

[Osakahaus]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1802808380005687580

The Major Trade will be Nelson and Pulock for Marner and Robertson or something stupid.

IB is 100% wrong here. He's such a massive tease. But he'll claim "he got sources" because of an arenado trade everyone could see coming.

 

[Throttle]

Lindholm had one off year this season and it's going to cost him a LOT of money. That being said, in the 5 previous seasons he's averaged 31 goals per 82 games, and has only missed 15 games over that span. He's one of the best in the league on FOs and is an excellent 2 way player - he'd play on our 1st PK and 2nd PP. Adding Lindholm would be the perfect insurance plan to have for Nelson potentially leaving after this season, and if we're moving out a guy like Pageau this is who I'd want to see added.

Remember, he had a 9Mx8 offer that he turned down earlier this season. If you can get him for 7.5x7 (although, apparently the Canucks couldn't), you're getting a pretty steep discount on what his market value was thought to be just a few months ago.

You can’t compare what a guy turned down vs what the market is now based on his performance. That’s the players problem. Hello Klingberg.