Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[iggy]

Trade Lee and Pageau anyway you can. Add picks if you have to.
$12,000,000 of cap space going out.
Sign Duclair $3,200,00
Sign Guenzel $8,500,000.
$11,700,000 of cap space in.

Duclair-Horvat-Barzal
Guenzel-Nelson-Palmieri
Engvall-Casey-Iskhakov
Gauthier-MacLean-Holmstrom

Dobson-Romanov
Pulock-Pelech
Mayfield -Reilly
Bolduc.

 

[MJF]

When is he looking to cash out? If we're talking three years then just making the playoffs would be good enough. If we're talking ten it's probably more prudent that the Islanders do well to help support everything else.

Why should he be looking to cash out at all?

 

[Satan'sIsland81]

For those interested, here's a list of the youngest UFAs hitting the market:

View attachment 863116

Here are the top point producers hitting the market:

View attachment 863117

In my opinion, Jake Debrusk should absolutely be the prime number one target of the offseason for the Isles. I feel he would be perfect fit on the top line with Horvat and Barzy. He is only 27, would be a 25-30 goal 55-60 point player with those guys, brings a physical presence and probably could get him for 6 million rather than 8-9 million of other potential top line targets. I would be willing to give him 7 years if necessary.

If we cannot get him, my next choice would be Marchessault, but it would have to be shorter term, 3-4 years.

 

[periferal]

It's probably easier to acquire wings than centers but given the fact that we know Horvat and Barzal can play together it frees the team up to grab whichever becomes available.

And yet we haven't had a true #1 winger since Ziggy Palffy.

View attachment 863064
yeah

but what about no Horvat and we become Buffalo?

These f***ing "rebuilders." It's all the same with them.

 

[PK Cronin]

Why should he be looking to cash out at all?

I'm not saying he should but sometimes these investments are quick flips. The valuation of the team has gone up from $485M when they purchased the team to $1.55B earlier this season. While neither Malkin or Ledecky are hurting for cash they aren't billionaires either so I wouldn't be shocked if they sold it for a nice profit in the not so distant future. I'd be curious to know what they view as the peak valuation for the franchise (it'll continue to go up but by how much is the question).

Guys like Dolan have so much money the sports teams are closer to being a hobby than a business venture.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I just don’t see JGP as having positive trade value. I suppose he might fetch one of those 2 assets but I think that’s the ceiling. Other than being good at the dot, his play has gradually diminished over the last 2 years and he ain’t getting any younger. He’s also far from a bargain at $5M x 2 more years. Dare I say, playing for the Isles in what’s looked at as a “system” doesn’t enhance his trade value.

Hard to judge just how desirable he as a product could be to some team somewhere, even if I tend to agree with you very much here.

The question will be whether our current GM or a new one will actually go out there and find the type of taker who would provide some sort of intrinsic value in return. And that will be the quetion for several of our players.

We just have no idea if the current management even attepts to do such things.

I’m with you on that though clearly we’ll need to pick up another center in the off-season if we’re counting on MacLean to be a regular and losing two of the veteran centers.

I see plenty of options. If we move two of the 5 "centers" on this team, it won't be a problem to find an adequate piece on th eUFA market.

Heck, if Lou remains GM, I'm still seeing him bring in Henrique as is, whether as a C or LW.

 

[MJF]

I'm not saying he should but sometimes these investments are quick flips. The valuation of the team has gone up from $485M when they purchased the team to $1.55B earlier this season. While neither Malkin or Ledecky are hurting for cash they aren't billionaires either so I wouldn't be shocked if they sold it for a nice profit in the not so distant future. I'd be curious to know what they view as the peak valuation for the franchise (it'll continue to go up but by how much is the question).

Guys like Dolan have so much money the sports teams are closer to being a hobby than a business venture.

I have no doubt that the NHL is about to expand shortly. There will be new broadcast platforms. Revenues from those fees will make owners even wealthier than anyone could have thought for a sport like pro hockey. For Malkin, Ledecky who are in their 60s, and the rest of NY Arena Partners with the Belmont renovation, you don’t cash out on one component of your investment. There’s too much future money involved.

Again, I would be shocked if the owners were in this for the quick flip.

Heck, if Lou remains GM, I'm still seeing him bring in Henrique as is, whether as a C or LW.

Just what this team doesn’t need.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Someone needs to kidnap Lou before he trades our #18 overall pick for some teams 2nd pairing D specialist.

He's moving it for Lukas Reichel.

 

[PK Cronin]

I have no doubt that the NHL is about to expand shortly. There will be new broadcast platforms. Revenues from those fees will make owners even wealthier than anyone could have thought for a sport like pro hockey. For Malkin, Ledecky who are in their 60s, and the rest of NY Arena Partners with the Belmont renovation, you don’t cash out on one component of your investment. There’s too much future money involved.

Again, I would be shocked if the owners were in this for the quick flip.

Expansion was something I wasn't even considering and that's definitely going to happen so you're probably right.

I'd like them to be the owners long term because I think they'll care more about keeping the product on the ice at a high level.

 

[NYI365]

I posted this on the main trade board isles rebuild thread, but what about a good old fashioned hockey trade:

To NYI

Nik Ehlers

To WPG

Native Son Ryan Pulock

Ehlers' historical playoff stats scare me but a Barzal-Horvat-Ehlers line excites my loins.

 

[On Edge]

Given the state of the past few years, ALL options should be considered when assessing the team and options. If there is a step back for a year or two without playoffs but clear direction of the team future and you field an exciting team with upside, I think most fans will buy in. That means every player we have is a trade-able commodity - if Gretzky can be traded, anyone could.

We should not consider any of our players - favorites included - as untouchable. I think this team is in desperate need of a refresh and I wouldn’t be afraid to consider any potential partner in a similar position (Winnipeg comes to mind…).

Top of list is the usual suspects at forward, Lee, Nelson, Palmieri, Pageau as well as on D - one of Peleck, Pulok. These players have all been terrific contributors but it has become…stale. Would I consider taking it a step further with a Barzal - Dobson - Sorokin type blockbuster (including some of the deadwood) for a refresh with equal or greater upside? Damn right I would.

 

[Osakahaus]

I posted this on the main trade board isles rebuild thread, but what about a good old fashioned hockey trade:

To NYI

Nik Ehlers

To WPG

Native Son Ryan Pulock

Ehlers' historical playoff stats scare me but a Barzal-Horvat-Ehlers line excites my loins.

PUKE

 

[On Edge]

I posted this on the main trade board isles rebuild thread, but what about a good old fashioned hockey trade:

To NYI

Nik Ehlers

To WPG

Native Son Ryan Pulock

Ehlers' historical playoff stats scare me but a Barzal-Horvat-Ehlers line excites my loins.

Just saw this..and have been thinking about Winnipeg as a very good potential trading partner for us…even for something bigger.

 

[doublechili]

I'm not saying he should but sometimes these investments are quick flips. The valuation of the team has gone up from $485M when they purchased the team to $1.55B earlier this season. While neither Malkin or Ledecky are hurting for cash they aren't billionaires either so I wouldn't be shocked if they sold it for a nice profit in the not so distant future. I'd be curious to know what they view as the peak valuation for the franchise (it'll continue to go up but by how much is the question).

Guys like Dolan have so much money the sports teams are closer to being a hobby than a business venture.

Even if Malkin couldn't care less about hockey and is only in it for the money, wouldn't he want to retain some control over the arena because it kind of impacts the value of his shopping village? And they're doing a major renovation/improvement of the track, grandstand, etc.. The hotel will be coming in. I'm not really seeing anything but a steady increase in value and in his return on investment. There will be 3 main prongs at Belmont (track, arena, shopping village), so why not hold onto 2 of them for a while?

 

[doublechili]

That's the general consensus, I'm not sure I agree with that though. He's been around the game a long time and I'd be surprised if he didn't see the same things we're seeing. While there are varying opinions about what things should be called or when they should've started, most of us on here are seeing similar things, how could Lamoriello not see the same? While he doesn't have a great track record of moving and shaking things up he's also made some pretty shrewd moves before, especially when it comes to dumping of contracts he doesn't want anymore. If he just tinkers and brings the same team back he'll have to go.

If a new GM was brought in from outside the organization I'd assume there would be some pretty decent changes right off the bat. GMs want their guys and people who fit the style of play they think will be successful.

I don't disagree that Lou sees things that we see, but I question how he will approach fixing them. He seems to be really, really, really methodical. Even when he speaks, he says things that are so patently obvious that most people would assume everyone takes that for granted and wouldn't even bother saying them. But Lou says them. And he sees value in chemistry and continuity perhaps to a fault. There's also the thing about him over-valuing some old school hockey traits at the expense of pure skill. The team doesn't have bad players - it mostly just has too many of the same kind and lacks dynamic talent. Hence, the margin for error is razor thin and I think that may contribute to the mental fragility of the team. It's one thing to make yourself believe you can hold a lead or come back when trailing, but it's another thing to have the confidence/cockiness that comes with knowing you have the talent to overcome stuff.

So, while I don't doubt that he'll do some things, I would be very surprised if he makes the series of moves, some of them probably creative and a bit bold, necessary. I mean, he's apparently been waiting for 4+ years for the right deal to come along to get a high end PMD.

 

[YearlyLottery]

I posted this on the main trade board isles rebuild thread, but what about a good old fashioned hockey trade:

To NYI

Nik Ehlers

To WPG

Native Son Ryan Pulock

Ehlers' historical playoff stats scare me but a Barzal-Horvat-Ehlers line excites my loins.

This is the way. Isles need to gain more speed on the defensive end anyway. The trick will be they need to combine this trade with dealing Lee/Pageau and bring in Montour

 

[YearlyLottery]

The way I see it the first move of the offseason should be one of the following:

- The "Retool"
Trade the most valuable of Nelson/Palmieri

- The Cap Savings
Trade Pageau/Lee and use the cap space on the roster

 

[periferal]

A SUCCESSFUL OFFSEASON​

• Replace Lou (with someone other than his son). Specifically find a new team president and GM (two separate people to do each job).
• Trade Nelson, Palmieri, Pageau, and anyone else around 30+ with any value (before their value drops further). This will open up cap space (to accomplsh some of the below) and also hopefully add youth into the organization and/or picks (which also can be used for some of the below).
• Under no circumstances should a 1st round pick be traded for anything but a legit #1 winger or top pairing defenseman (at least as talented as Horvat/Dobson and under 30).
• Find a new goalie coach/psychologist/shaman or whatever is necessary to get Sorokin back to his 2022 elite play.
• Target a legit #1 winger or top pairing defenseman via signing or trade (players actually worth 7M+ or more)
• If Stamkos or Marchessault are willing to sign here then do whatever it takes to sign them.
• Try to find veteran values under 1.5-2M/year, and simply stop targeting "3-6M players."
• No contract longer than 2-3 years for any bottom 6 forward/bottom pairing defenseman
• Let Martin, Bortuzzo, Aho, and Salo walk and only sign Clutterbuck/Reilly if they take close to vet minimum (maybe a bit more on Reilly).
• OK to resign MacLean and Ishakov, but only on minimum deals.
• Try to trade Wahlstrom for anything (hopefully a sweetener in a bigger deal).
• Have your scouting department work harder than ever to hit on whatever picks you have come the draft.
• If a miracle happens and you can trade Lee do so, but regardless...Make Horvat captain.

The more you do of those things (with bold/underline being the most vital), the better the offseason will be and the closer it will get us back to contention.

 

[Duanesutter12]

This is the way. Isles need to gain more speed on the defensive end anyway. The trick will be they need to combine this trade with dealing Lee/Pageau and bring in Montour

Agree on Ehlers. I'd trade him for Pulock straight up. The problem with Lee/Pageau is not only that their play has diminished but their cap hits basically make them untradeable. Especially Lee, ZERO chance we trade him outside of some colossal kind of dump which I can't see happening. Pageau in particular has been pretty frustrating. He was that quintessential missing piece when we traded for him and was great in the playoffs in 2020 but he hasn't been the same since the hand injury in '21. So if you think about it a trade that was once so promising really hasn't worked out in the long run.

 

[Top Corner]

I know that we suck and our GM is old and terrible and our owners are obviously dumb and there's no way we can be competitive ever again... But just want to say that it was a fun season. Crazy ups and downs but a nice push at the end to make the playoffs. And always fun to be in the tournament.

Sorokin, Barzal, Horvat, Engvall, Romanov, Dobson. That's a helluva (still young) core. Most brought in by Lou I might add. Hoping whatever moves the team makes, the strategy is to improve next season. Not seven seasons from now.

We certainly have a few things but I will reserve my praise for Lou until he finds a way to undo the bad that is on him. The clock is ticking on this roster , we had the whole season with Horvat and Barzal and basically repeated last year’s scenario which in theory was predictable since the same club came back. I do like the new coach but can Lou reshape the roster to fit the coach? My answer is NO,
I don’t see Lou starting the new season as GM.

 

[Throttle]

I posted this on the main trade board isles rebuild thread, but what about a good old fashioned hockey trade:

To NYI

Nik Ehlers

To WPG

Native Son Ryan Pulock

Ehlers' historical playoff stats scare me but a Barzal-Horvat-Ehlers line excites my loins.

In the end, you get the same problem. This will give you fancy regular season stats and excitement. In the postseason, this is an easy line to defend against.

They get broken up and you still have the same problem.

The problem only changes in three ways: 1, add 3 more talented players up front to offset any line changes, 2, the player changes his game to go to the net more, shoot more, steps up in big games, and reduce ‘every knows he’s gonna pass’ mentality, or 3, make the trade to adjust the forward mix and utilize the salary to better conforming players.

It’s on the player to make the adjustment for the betterment of the team, if he drives to the net, shoots more, scores more it totally changes the ‘how’ to defend against him. Now, it’s not so hard to do so. You play the pass all day long, you’ll get burned at times bc he’s talented, but you know he’s not driving to the net and not shooting.

 

[PK Cronin]

Even if Malkin couldn't care less about hockey and is only in it for the money, wouldn't he want to retain some control over the arena because it kind of impacts the value of his shopping village? And they're doing a major renovation/improvement of the track, grandstand, etc.. The hotel will be coming in. I'm not really seeing anything but a steady increase in value and in his return on investment. There will be 3 main prongs at Belmont (track, arena, shopping village), so why not hold onto 2 of them for a while?

I think it impacts the value but it depends how much. If the team was a gateway to the land development and he tripled his investment already it could be a good time to get out. With expansion coming though and the reasons you mention it would make sense to wait a bit longer because I don't see the value going down or stagnating for a while.

 

[SI]

A SUCCESSFUL OFFSEASON...

• Replace Lou (with someone other than his son). Specifically find a new team president and GM (two separate people to do each job).
• Trade Nelson, Palmieri, Pageau, and anyone else around 30+ with any value (before their value drops further). This will open up cap space (to accomplsh some of the below) and also hopefully add youth into the organization and/or picks (which also can be used for some of the below).
• Under no circumstances should a 1st round pick be traded for anything but a legit #1 winger or top pairing defenseman (at least as talented as Horvat/Dobson and under 30).
• Find a new goalie coach/psychologist/shaman or whatever is necessary to get Sorokin back to his 2022 elite play.
• Target a legit #1 winger or top pairing defenseman via signing or trade (players actually worth 7M+ or more)
• If Stamkos or Marchessault are willing to sign here then do whatever it takes to sign them.
• Try to find veteran values under 1.5-2M/year, and simply stop targeting "3-6M players."
• No contract longer than 2-3 years for any bottom 6 forward/bottom pairing defenseman
• Let Martin, Bortuzzo, Aho, and Salo walk and only sign Clutterbuck/Reilly if they take close to vet minimum (maybe a bit more on Reilly).
• OK to resign MacLean and Ishakov, but only on minimum deals.
• Try to trade Wahlstrom for anything (hopefully a sweetener in a bigger deal).
• Have your scouting department work harder than ever to hit on whatever picks you have come the draft.
• If a miracle happens and you can trade Lee do so, but regardless...Make Horvat captain.

The more you do of those things (with bold/underline being the most vital), the better the offseason will be and the closer it will get us back to contention.

Nice one.

We will begin to get clarity once the Cap is finalized in mid-June.
Currently, the MOU signed by the PA and the Owners stipulates that the max increase can only be 5% of the budget, which would make the cap next 87.675. But after, the projections made a few weeks ago and news that the league will release 3 of the 6% held for escrow shows the cap could have been higher.

Whatever the NHL is doing, it has been working since Covid, valuation of franchises is UP, new TV deals, 4 Nations games, expansion, and now hockey in UTAH. Not having Arizona bleeding $ and actually having UTAH selling out every game will bring projections UP. My hope is that the PA and league agree to move the Cap to at least 90m or even 92. When the League and PA sign a new deal in the summer of 2026 - the CAP could be 100+.

A higher cap will allow the team to target 2 players.

 

[SI]

I understand there is apprehension that the same team is brought back, but IMO, I do not see that as anywhere close to a reality.
It CANNOT be and I believe will NOT be.

Before diving into the details of how they can approach this season, the first one will be whether or not LL steps down from GM duties or is fired or retires. If there is a change in the GM duties, I think in all likelihood it will be LL stepping down before retiring or being fired. I am going to approach this post and others to follow with the idea that LL returns.

The CAP is another ? - My hope is that it goes beyond the 5% max increase and bumps up to at least 90.
But, I will approach these possible offseason moves with the 87.675 CAP.

Essential ?'s

• What do the Islanders do at C? Does Barzal stay at W or does he move back to C? Do they trade one Nelson or JGP or both?
• How do the Islanders shed cap space?
• LL was scouting Ottawa a lot last season - does this mean eyes on Chychrun? or Pinto?
• Do they keep their 2024 1st?
• Do they resign Mike Reilly?
• Do they let Martin and Clutterbuck walk?
• Do they buy out Anders Lee?
• Do they ask Pelech or Pulock to waive NTC to move them?
• Does LL have a totally wild trade up his sleeve?
• Do they leverage Palmieri's strong play this season and trade him?

 

[IslesNorway]

Not handing out long term deals is very important. We simply cannot afford to have any more unmoveable contracts on this roster. Periferal's list above is pretty spot on.