Roster Building XX: How Many Patents Does Your GM Have?

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Don’t really like the fit.

Detroit likes all offense no defense types

 

[DaveG]

Details appear to be lacking...

looking at Detroit it would have to be DeBrincat or Raymond, otherwise not seeing a fit. No chance they trade Seider

I've been high on Buium for years now but that doesn't make sense in a Necas trade.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Pass on debrincat

 

[CandyCanes]

The problem is, still only one team wins. There are probably other teams with similar profiles to Florida that aren't winning. I think people get caught in the trap of thinking that whoever wins in a given year has the secret formula and wanting to emulate it (including front offices across the league). And still only one team will win. There are tons of different formulas to win, including ones that haven't been used or have been used and haven't worked yet. I don't think it's a bad thing that we have our own way of doing things and there is some merit to zigging when others are zagging sometimes. Play to your strengths.

For sure. And I'm sure Tulsky & co. have run analytics to see if size really does matter . But that got me curious on previous Stanley Cup winners and how sizable they were. Since I'm applying for the assistant GM position. Here's my very comprehensive research analysis... Hire me Tulsky!

Data:
What you're looking at - The amount of players under 6ft on the cup winning team over the past 10 winners. Requirement is at least 75% of games played to qualify.

Vegas - 1 player (Marchessault)
Colorado - 2 players (Lehkonen, Cogliano) *Newhook played 12 games.
Tampa - 5 players (Kucherov, Coleman, Point, Gourde, Johnson)
Tampa - 5 players (Kucherov, Coleman, Point, Gourde, Johnson)
St. Louis - 1 player (Schwartz)
Washington - 1 player (Orlov)
Pittsburgh - 8 players (Guentzel, Wilson, Rust, Hornqvist, Crosby, Daley, Sheary)
Pittsburgh - 5 players (Rust, Kessel, Hornqvist, Crosby, Sheary) *Daley played 15 games.
Blackhawks - 4 players (Teravainen, Shaw, Kane, Timmonen) *Versteeg played 12 games
Kings - 1 player (Richards)

So it's about 50/50 for teams to have 2 or less under 6ft guys. The formula does show that you need at least one guy in the 5 feets.

More data:
What you're looking at - This years conference finals. All 4 teams utilized a low amount of under 6ft players.

Florida - 1 (Rodrigues)
New York Rags - 2 (Fox, Trocheck)
Dallas - 1 (Stankoven)
Edmonton - 1 (Ryan)

Suggestions after my research on what to do with our guys living in the 5ft world:
I personally think having a bit more size could be a difference maker for us in the playoffs. So let's retool a bit and add some inches to our lineup

1. Jarvis gets a pass, because he's freaking Jarvis.

2. Guentzel. He's not 6ft, but the dude freaking games. Sign his ass.

3. Let Teravainen walk away in free agency and look for a skilled power forward above the height of 6ft to be placed in the middle 6. Lawson Crouse would fit the mold.

4. While we like Drury's game and he makes for a solid bottom 4 center. Let's look to find a right handed center (So Brind'Amour can over utilize him in key situations, just to get the faceoff matchups he dreams of) + would like a bit of sandpaper in his toolbox, along with 6ft+ of height for the ladies. My hours just ended for the day, I've got alcoholic beverages to drink with friends tonight, so I didn't pick a player yet to fill Drury's position. Sorry boss.

5. DeAngelo can be launched into the sun. We likely already have this position filled internally this year with Morrow or Coghlan that could fill in the bottom 6 as a emergency call up.

Sponsors of this research:
This research project is brought to you by Adderall. I really zoned in on the wrong thing lol.

 

[Lempo]

Details appear to be lacking...

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

looking at Detroit it would have to be DeBrincat or Raymond, otherwise not seeing a fit. No chance they trade Seider

I've been high on Buium for years now but that doesn't make sense in a Necas trade.

Sandin-Pellikka is the guy who I would target from Detroit. Not likely possible, but that's who I would go for. Considering how many rumored suitors there are for Necas, aim high.

 

[Derailed75]

The problem is, still only one team wins. There are probably other teams with similar profiles to Florida that aren't winning. I think people get caught in the trap of thinking that whoever wins in a given year has the secret formula and wanting to emulate it (including front offices across the league). And still only one team will win. There are tons of different formulas to win, including ones that haven't been used or have been used and haven't worked yet. I don't think it's a bad thing that we have our own way of doing things and there is some merit to zigging when others are zagging sometimes. Play to your strengths.

Yeah if Freddy shows up like Bob has we are in the same exact position they are.

 

[MinJaBen]

.....see the aerodynamics of the bumble bee....they ain't supposed to be able to fly either.

This is the epitome of the analytics don’t match the eye test, so change the analytics.

 

[NotOpie]

TLDR: We're f***ed!!!!!

After the Chatfield signing, I took a look at our roster on CapFriendly. They say we have $23,874,167 in cap space with 19 roster slots filled. If you take out Nadeau, Blake, Suzuki, and Seeley (assuming they'll all be in Chicago), that puts us at something like $27.2 million in cap space with 15 roster slots filled. Take out Spencer and we're at almost $28 million (assuming his whole salary gets buried) with 8 slots (6 forwards and 2 defensemen) to fill (i13 forwards and 7 defensemen). I'm assuming Morrow makes the squad.

One way to go would be to spend something like $15.5 million across Jarvis and one of a Guentzel/Necas or Guentzel/Necas replacement (most likely acquired in a Necas trade). That leaves $12.5 million for 6 players (4F, 2D). The 13th forward would be at or close to league minimum, so let's say $800K, leaving $11.7 million for 5 players. That team would look something like this:

Svechnikov/Aho/Jarvis
XXX/Kuznetsov/UFA or Trade replacement
XXX/Staal/Fast
Lemieux/Kotkaniemi/XXX
Suzuki or Comtois

Slavin/Burns
Orlov/XXX or Chatfield
Chatfield or XXX/Morrow
XXX

Arguably you don't spend more that $4 million for the remaining 3rd liner and the remaining 4th liner slots.But you would still need a scoring forward and a #4/#5 defenseman. And you've got $7.7 million left. That's a tough row to hoe.

I realize that the KK trade outcry is out there and that is an option for more financial flexibility. Trade KK and slot Jack Drury in as the 4C (probably for between $1.5 million and $2 million) and that solves a significant financial piece. Or you could just slot Drury in on Staal's left side and you likely save a couple of million. Yet you still have scoring forward problems. This is some Rubik's cube level shit.

All of this leads me to believe that we are going to have an ELC forward on the roster when we break camp. A guy like Suzuki (okay not an ELC, but still cheap), Nadeau, Blake, or Unger Sorum almost certainly is playing NHL minutes. Lastly, the defense will almost certainly be downgraded a bit. We are either going to spend money of offense or spend that same money on defense. We can't do both.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Yeah if Freddy shows up like Bob has we are in the same exact position they are.

I mean, if Freddie showed up, we'd likely beat the Rangers and probably would lose to the Panthers. And if we had managed to get past them, I don't think we handle the Oilers as well as they have.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Freddie had better xGSA per game last season than Bob did this season and save percentage than both seasons for Bob

Bob 23 playoffs: .857 GSAx per game played, 91.5 sv%
Bob 24 playoffs: .57 GSAX per game played, 91.6% save percentage
Freddie 23 playoffs: .63 GSAx per game, 92.7 sv%
Freddie 24 playoffs: .0178 GSAx per game, 89.5 sv%

 

[Chan790]

TLDR: We're f***ed!!!!!

After the Chatfield signing, I took a look at our roster on CapFriendly. They say we have $23,874,167 in cap space with 19 roster slots filled. If you take out Nadeau, Blake, Suzuki, and Seeley (assuming they'll all be in Chicago), that puts us at something like $27.2 million in cap space with 15 roster slots filled. Take out Spencer and we're at almost $28 million (assuming his whole salary gets buried) with 8 slots (6 forwards and 2 defensemen) to fill (i13 forwards and 7 defensemen). I'm assuming Morrow makes the squad.

One way to go would be to spend something like $15.5 million across Jarvis and one of a Guentzel/Necas or Guentzel/Necas replacement (most likely acquired in a Necas trade). That leaves $12.5 million for 6 players (4F, 2D). The 13th forward would be at or close to league minimum, so let's say $800K, leaving $11.7 million for 5 players. That team would look something like this:

Svechnikov/Aho/Jarvis
XXX/Kuznetsov/UFA or Trade replacement
XXX/Staal/Fast
Lemieux/Kotkaniemi/XXX
Suzuki or Comtois

Slavin/Burns
Orlov/XXX or Chatfield
Chatfield or XXX/Morrow
XXX

Arguably you don't spend more that $4 million for the remaining 3rd liner and the remaining 4th liner slots.But you would still need a scoring forward and a #4/#5 defenseman. And you've got $7.7 million left. That's a tough row to hoe.

I realize that the KK trade outcry is out there and that is an option for more financial flexibility. Trade KK and slot Jack Drury in as the 4C (probably for between $1.5 million and $2 million) and that solves a significant financial piece. Or you could just slot Drury in on Staal's left side and you likely save a couple of million. Yet you still have scoring forward problems. This is some Rubik's cube level shit.

All of this leads me to believe that we are going to have an ELC forward on the roster when we break camp. A guy like Suzuki (okay not an ELC, but still cheap), Nadeau, Blake, or Unger Sorum almost certainly is playing NHL minutes. Lastly, the defense will almost certainly be downgraded a bit. We are either going to spend money of offense or spend that same money on defense. We can't do both.

This is why I've sort of made peace with the idea of an unstated/unacknowledged retool year where we set up our long-term success, get the kids some NHL ice-time, scrape into the playoffs, and look forward to 2025-26 as the start of the next contention window.

I just don't want to do anything with long-term ramifications just to compete next year when we're don't feel like we're going to be a Cup contender regardless.

 

[Derailed75]

Freddie had better xGSA per game last season and save percentage in the playoffs than bob did last season or this season

And this year, with a much improved squad in front of him he wasn't as good.

I mean, if Freddie showed up, we'd likely beat the Rangers and probably would lose to the Panthers. And if we had managed to get past them, I don't think we handle the Oilers as well as they have.

My point was our skaters are not far off from the team getting ready to sweep the Oilers. Their netminding is the difference.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

And this year, with a much improved squad in front of him he wasn't as good.



My point was our skaters are not far off from the team getting ready to sweep the Oilers. Their netminding is the difference.

The point is Freddie has shown up like bob. Doesn’t mean we would advance like them. It isn’t even that important either

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Lastly, the defense will almost certainly be downgraded a bit. We are either going to spend money of offense or spend that same money on defense. We can't do both.

This is the Hurricanes that we're talking about. If they don't spend a ton of cap space on defense, they are not Hurricaning correctly! I expect either one of Skjei or Pesce re-signed or a premium asset traded to get a lower cap-hit version of them.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

~34:45

Johnston frames the ask for Necas as “kind of a hockey deal”. Says they’re holding firm for that. He threw out Ehlers, just as Dreger did.

Zegras makes more sense, to me. 3 years of control feels closer to 2 than 2 is to 1. Not thrilling for either side, but both can say we got a good NHL player for our good NHL player. Laine/Dubois vibes.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Zegras just feels like the left handed version of necas.

Little to no defense, no real structured team play, and destined to be a 4th liner in the playoffs

 

[bleedgreen]

Zegras may not be a defensive stud, but his offensive game is very different from Necas. He’s more poised with the puck, is generally in more control with it. More consistent playmaker. He’s more similar to TT than Necas, with a willingness to shoot. He’s a better center than Necas would seem to be. If we would try Kuzy we’d try Zegras. I don’t know that he’s the right price for Necas but it wouldn’t be a bad deal.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

~34:45

Johnston frames the ask for Necas as “kind of a hockey deal”. Says they’re holding firm for that. He threw out Ehlers, just as Dreger did.

Zegras makes more sense, to me. 3 years of control feels closer to 2 than 2 is to 1. Not thrilling for either side, but both can say we got a good NHL player for our good NHL player. Laine/Dubois vibes.

To me, Ehlers for Necas only makes sense if Winnipeg throws the 37th overall pick in the package. Throw pick #37 and I think the Canes would be OK with losing a year of control, depending on what others offer. I still think someone like Crouse is the ideal player to acquire for Carolina, however, but Ehlers + #37 would give the Canes another potential whack at the wheel to get a good young player relatively-early in the draft.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

We weren’t even willing to try Kuzy for long. The guy barely played because he isn’t a good center too.

 

[bleedgreen]

Comparing Ehlers to Necas, I think Ehlers is actually the more consistently dynamic player. I think he creates scoring chances more consistently. I think he’s better with the puck. He’s had injury issues the previous few years before playing a full season here recently but his pts dropped off a little bit. Hard to say why they did as I don’t know his usage there very well but he’s only 28 so I don’t think he’s hit his downturn. They are similar players in that they’re both very fast and can do a lot of solo work. I think Ehlers is better defensively.

The issue is he’s three years older and one year away from ufa. So unless we’re signing him to a contract prior to the trade (unlikely) it’s moving Necas for a rental. It’s a win for Winni just because of that, and also because Necas gets hurt less generally speaking.

 

[Unsustainable]

I'd rather pass on Ehlers and give Guentzel 8x9

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Ehlers upcoming contract, perimeter play, and injury history should make him a no

 

[bleedgreen]

Necas is the definition of a perimeter player. We can’t expect better players than Necas to come back. The other aspects I’ve already said myself and we’re in agreement there.

If we’re getting a non perimeter player it’ll be a less a productive one. Which may be fine in the end.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

No need trading Necas for someone that doesn’t improve our playoff chances. Just keep him if we are getting a similar styled player