Speculation: Roster Building Thread XXXVII: It's the Final Countdown

[mas0764]

Furthermore, lets then ASSUME that he doesnt want to finish his degree because he distanced himself from schooling, he has $1 million (potentially), to get by with for a few years while he finds a trade or industry that does not require a college degree.

But if he invests that $1m he is still way ahead of everyone else at his similar age. Even if he's got to go to work at Walmart. He will be a multi-multi-millionaire by age 40 or 50, if he invest wisely.

If he blows out his knee by returning to school and never makes the NHL, he's back on par with every other working stiff... for a kid that already doesn't prefer schooling.

Basically, absent making absolutely horrendous financial decisions (not returning to school and not investing the money), the choice with the worst downside if all goes bad is definitely the one where he never gets the million dollars to begin with.

I'd rank it like this, from best to worst outcomes.

1) Goes to NHL early, NHL career a success, he makes millions, never needs to work again, degree is irrelevant.
2) Stays in School, gets degree as a fallback, but NHL career a success, he makes millions, never needs to work again (this could be flipped with 1, if you want).
3) Goes to NHL early, NHL career washes out, needs to return to school and fall back on degree and investments.
4) Stays in School, his NHL career fails to materialize, needs to get a job after school like everyone else and has no nest egg. <-- this is the worst outcome

If we are assuming that he isn't gonna properly spend that million dollars (ie, that he's gonna blow through the money, not return the school, and not invest it), yes, that is a much worse outcome than #3, but I could also "assume the worst" where he just decides he never wants to work drops out of school anyway, to enhance the worst-case scenario risk of any of these situations.

The key is, if he's gonna work hard and make smart decisions in his life, these are the four realistic outcomes. And the one where he stays in school but does not make it to the NHL is definitely the worst.

But since you brought up these wonderful opportunities of the NHL “fraternity”, why dont you list them. This must be easy for you to do if they are so plentiful and the occurrence that former NHLers land jobs within this “fraternity” so often. And not just any NHLers like Brad Richards, but how about young kids who maybe shuffled around a bit for 3-6 years and never made a name for themselves within the NHL. Because you just saying that without providing examples is really just conjecture.

I think you are misunderstanding what some are saying regarding the opportunities for athletes.

Again, I posted before, I don't think it means that every player who doesn't work out is gonna end up working for the Rangers.

What it means is, if they are serious and hard working, they will make connections in their time with the Rangers that they will be able to parlay into other arenas, well easier than someone like you or me who has no such connections. The Rangers can put him in contact with any business in the city with a glowing letter of recommendation and probably a personal connection. That goes a long way.... again, if you are motivated to take advantage of it.

My argument from the beginning is to finish his education while playing. My opinion*, is it would be the wise thing to do. Not everyone is Mike Richter who will be extremely motivated to go back to school after their career ends, and at Yale especially. And this is a guy who could have been afforded really any position within the NHL “fraternity”

Yeah, I see what you mean, but it's just .... the opportunity to get the money potentially goes away. The opportunity to get the education does not go away.

If you want to do well in this life, you will always be able to go back for school. If you don't have any interest in education and going back to school should your hockey career fail... well, that's even more reason to pour yourself into hockey, frankly.

I'd never fault someone for taking the money... especially if they do so with a mind to put away $100k for their education should they need it, and invest a good amount as well. If that is your mindset, there is really absolutely no risk to postponing your education.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

 

[McRanger]

Completely disagree with some of your conclusions. Specifically as @True Blue noted you’re extrapolating that with an increased exposure to high end competition (to match Trouba’s expose for apples to apples comparison) ADA and Fox’s numbers will remain unchanged. And increased it must because your numbers essentially show that for every 2 shifts by either Fox or ADA Trouba has 3! That’s a lot.

You’re also understating the impact of Lindgren as the best partner has on Fox’s stats in comparison to the other two. Give ADA and Trouba partners who complement their game and then we can compare stats.

There was no extrapolation in any those numbers, but I can see what you mean about assuming the numbers stay consistent (I excepted the discrepancy in TOI but figured it best to post it whole instead of trying to cherry pick players to match TOIs) but being that there doesn't appear to be a correlation between increased ice time and lower metrics in any of the individual numbers I am not sure it's accurate to assume an increase/decrease in TOI would change much. But its impossible to tell. (That's why I originally just posted Barzal, we've played the Islanders the most and the TOIs were almost identical)

Anyway none of that any of that really matters much, the whole point of collecting the data was to show that Fox and Deangelo play a lot against top competition (and Deangelo does it with a sh*t partner) so people need to stop pretending they don't.

Comically this is all an offshoot of an discussion about whether our young players (with good metrics) are responsible for the teams bad metrics. Not the most insane thing I've had to argue against but definitely up there. At this point I am less an angry old man yelling at clouds as I am a dumb younger man trying to explain precipitation to clouds.

 

[Edge]

If academics are indeed are legit concern with Miller, it's probably best to get to Hartford.

 

[LORDE]

How has he not made his decision yet???? Folks in this thread early made it for him! WTF

 

[kovazub94]

There was no extrapolation in any those numbers, but I can see what you mean about assuming the numbers stay consistent (I excepted the discrepancy in TOI but figured it best to post it whole instead of trying to cherry pick players to match TOIs) but being that there doesn't appear to be a correlation between increased ice time and lower metrics in any of the individual numbers I am not sure it's accurate to assume an increase/decrease in TOI would change much. But its impossible to tell. (That's why I originally just posted Barzal, we've played the Islanders the most and the TOIs were almost identical)

Anyway none of that any of that really matters much, the whole point of collecting the data was to show that Fox and Deangelo play a lot against top competition (and Deangelo does it with a sh*t partner) so people need to stop pretending they don't.

Comically this is all an offshoot of an discussion about whether our young players (with good metrics) are responsible for the teams bad metrics. Not the most insane thing I've had to argue against but definitely up there. At this point I am less an angry old man yelling at clouds as I am a dumb younger man trying to explain precipitation to clouds.

I phrased myself incorrectly (you obviously didn't extrapolate numbers yourself) but you absolutely got the gist. As you stated you assumed that numbers stay consistent with increased TOI which is what I referred to "extrapolation" and what I disagree is something that we can assume as a given.

The other thing is the statement that Fox and DeAngelo play A LOT against top competition. How is it defined? The game is dynamic and obviously because they play on different pairs they would get their share of exposure to top lines. However if the argument was whether Trouba(-type) is providing protection to their exposure to that level of competition then his 50%ish higher TOI over each of ADA and Fox is significant and does point out to him providing such protection.

 

[Blue Blooded]

So who would do Sergachev and Gourde for Nils Lundkvist and Kravtsov?

You said you wouldn't take on Eichel and his cap hit for nothing because he isn't going to outperform it, but you're willing to take on 28 year old 4th liner Yanni Gourde who has five more years of an $5.167M contract with two of those having a full NTC - and in the process giving up two high-tier talents ready to step in and contribute on ELCs?

 

[Uncle Dru]

How has he not made his decision yet???? Folks in this thread early made it for him! WTF

We know already, Carp doesn't...as always

 

[JimmyG89]

Yeee, some Cali flavour up in this. xD

Northern Cali kid, specifically Bay Area.

You can criticize some of the NHL expansion spots, but kids from California, Florida, and Arizona are starting to get into the league with the expansion to San Jose, Phoenix, and Tampa/Sunrise.

Increasing the talent pool is huge for hockey in general, but USA hockey needed it. Only so much you can get out of the traditional markets.

Only a matter of time before the US is producing more players than Canada.

 

[leetch99]

Northern Cali kid, specifically Bay Area.

You can criticize some of the NHL expansion spots, but kids from California, Florida, and Arizona are starting to get into the league with the expansion to San Jose, Phoenix, and Tampa/Sunrise.

Increasing the talent pool is huge for hockey in general, but USA hockey needed it. Only so much you can get out of the traditional markets.

Only a matter of time before the US is producing more players than Canada.

We'll be turning out Basketball and Baseball giants then.

 

[JimmyG89]

We'll be turning out Basketball and Baseball giants then.

I think we're already seeing some of it. If K'Andre Miller were not from Minnesota, don't you think a 6'5, 205lb kid that is an insane athlete would be playing hockey?

Probably gets into football, basketball, maybe soccer as a goalie or a center back.

In 20 years time, there might be even more of that kind of athlete on skates, and the NHL will be better for it.

 

[Mikos87]

Time for Miller to go pro. You can always re-enroll in college, but this kid's a hockey player. Time for him to play more hockey.

 

[Fitzy]

Give Miller Geertson's roster spot. That guy flat out sucks.

 

[egelband]

Do we protect him as a defenseman or a forward?

Interesting though. Were Smith someone to indeed protect, Rangers could which position, I guess. Might want to give Lindgren a few games in net

 

[Ola]

You said you wouldn't take on Eichel and his cap hit for nothing because he isn't going to outperform it, but you're willing to take on 28 year old 4th liner Yanni Gourde who has five more years of an $5.167M contract with two of those having a full NTC - and in the process giving up two high-tier talents ready to step in and contribute on ELCs?

Ok, fair point, but I did assign him "negative value" in that proposal. With that said, I really think that Kakko could benefit from playing with someone like Gourde. In addition, to ever become the top dog in the East, we need to be able to counter the top units around us. I am not sold on that Ziba will be able to do that. Ziba has his absolute worst games against Boston and the likes. If you are playing against someone like Ziba, there is no better way to counter it than to have a line like Marchand-Bergeron-Pasternak. Smaller guys that moves really well, takes away the ice and that hang on to the puck when they get it. And this also applies to us of course when we play against Malkin, Barkov, Eichel and the likes. Hence I would definitely be intrigued to build a line around Panarin that is hard working, really fast, really good at hanging on to the puck and so forth. Kakko will become really good away from the puck. Its just that last explosiveness that is missing, he is great at pick-pocketing players. Panarin is great there. Gourde could make some sense in that environment. Strome is just OK, he doesn't take away the ice well enough nor can he buy himself time. Strome is at his best with Panarin in the attacking zone, there he is a really good fit, not going up ice.

So in a sense I do think Gourde as a "concept" fits what we should try to build.

 

[Ola]

Ola, what is happiness to you? What makes you happy?

Me: Waking up to four posts from RangerBoy.

 

[Savant]

I think we're already seeing some of it. If K'Andre Miller were not from Minnesota, don't you think a 6'5, 205lb kid that is an insane athlete would be playing hockey?

Probably gets into football, basketball, maybe soccer as a goalie or a center back.

In 20 years time, there might be even more of that kind of athlete on skates, and the NHL will be better for it.

Seth Jones is the son of a former NBA player. It happens. Hopefully it starts happening more.

 

[Mikos87]

I think we're already seeing some of it. If K'Andre Miller were not from Minnesota, don't you think a 6'5, 205lb kid that is an insane athlete would be playing hockey?

Probably gets into football, basketball, maybe soccer as a goalie or a center back.

In 20 years time, there might be even more of that kind of athlete on skates, and the NHL will be better for it.

What you are describing is that the best athletes in a given region end up playing hockey. In Finland & Sweden that happens. The best athletes play hockey. In Canada, if they can afford they play hockey. In the US, the best athletes don't play hockey.

There are stronger grassroots efforts taking place in Canada to ease the cost of the game for younger players. It's gotten so expensive that it knocks a lot of kids out of the picture by the time they turn 11-12. Same in the US.

One of my business associates is a youth coach in a non-traditional market. He's coached a number of current NHLers (including one of the best in the game). Of the four current NHLers he's coached, he knew 3 were a lock based on their athleticism and skating ability. There were a couple of others that he coached who were amazing athletes, but flamed out from ages 16-20 because they didn't have the support infrastructure around them.

IE getting ice-time, the right training etc. Those that didn't make it, also didn't make the USNDP team whereas the others did or went onto Canadian juniors where the infrastructure was in place.

So a lot has to take place in order to turn out more quality hockey players in the US, Canada, and other parts of the world.

 

[cheech70]

1st spin





2020 NHL Draft Lottery Simulator

SIM LOTTERY
RESET

PICK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS	PPG	RW	STREAK	L10	TOP 3	#1 OVR
1 9	Arizona	33-29-8	74	1.057	26	Lost 2	5-5-0	11.4%	3.5%
2 2	San Jose OTT	29-35-5	63	0.913	22	Lost 3	3-6-1	28.8%	9.5%
3 10	NY Rangers	36-28-4	76	1.118	30	Lost 1	6-4-0	6.6%	2.0%
4 3	Detroit	17-48-5	39	0.557	13	Won 2	3-6-1	49.4%	18.5%
5 3	Ottawa	25-32-12	62	0.899	18	Won 2	5-4-1	38.8%	13.5%
6 3	Los Angeles	28-35-6	62	0.899	20	Won 6	7-2-1	33.9%	11.5%
7 2	Anaheim	28-32-9	65	0.942	19	Lost 1	4-4-2	26.1%	8.5%
8 2	Buffalo	30-31-8	68	0.986	22	Won 1	3-7-0	23.3%	7.5%
9 2	New Jersey	28-28-12	68	1.000	22	Won 2	6-2-2	20.4%	6.5%
10 2	Montreal	31-30-9	71	1.014	19	Lost 2	4-4-2	19.0%	6.0%
11 2	Chicago	31-30-8	70	1.014	22	Lost 2	5-5-0	16.0%	5.0%
12 1	Winnipeg	36-28-6	78	1.114	29	Won 3	6-3-1	9.8%	3.0%
13 1	Minnesota	35-27-7	77	1.116	30	Won 1	7-3-0	8.2%	2.5%
14	Florida	35-26-8	78	1.130	30	Won 2	4-4-2	5.0%	1.5%
15	Columbus	33-22-15	81	1.157	25	Won 1	3-4-3	3.3%	1.0%
END OF LOTTERY
16	Nashville	34-26-8	76	1.118	27	Won 2	5-4-1
17	Vancouver NJ	35-27-6	76	1.118	27	Lost 1	3-6-1
18	Calgary	36-27-7	79	1.129	25	Lost 1	6-3-1
19	Toronto CAR	35-25-9	79	1.145	27	Lost 3	4-5-1
20	NY Islanders OTT	35-23-9	79	1.179	24	Lost 6	2-5-3
21	Carolina NYR	37-25-5	79	1.179	26	Won 2	4-4-2
22	Edmonton	37-24-9	83	1.186	31	Lost 1	5-3-2
23	Dallas	37-23-8	82	1.206	26	Lost 5	3-4-3
24	Pittsburgh MIN	39-23-6	84	1.235	28	Lost 2	2-8-0
25	Washington	41-20-8	90	1.304	31	Lost 1	4-3-3
26	Colorado	41-20-8	90	1.304	37	Lost 1	7-2-1
27	Tampa Bay SJ	43-20-6	92	1.333	35	Lost 1	4-5-1
CONFERENCE FINAL LOSERS
28	Vegas	39-24-8	86	1.211	30	Won 2	8-2-0
29	Philadelphia	41-20-7	89	1.309	31	Won 9	9-1-0
STANLEY CUP FINAL TEAMS
30	St. Louis	41-19-10	92	1.314	32	Lost 1	8-2-0
31	Boston ANA	43-14-12	98	1.420	37	Lost 1	7-3-0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[wafflepadsave]

1st spin





2020 NHL Draft Lottery Simulator

SIM LOTTERY
RESET

PICK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS	PPG	RW	STREAK	L10	TOP 3	#1 OVR
1 9	Arizona	33-29-8	74	1.057	26	Lost 2	5-5-0	11.4%	3.5%
2 2	San Jose OTT	29-35-5	63	0.913	22	Lost 3	3-6-1	28.8%	9.5%
3 10	NY Rangers	36-28-4	76	1.118	30	Lost 1	6-4-0	6.6%	2.0%
4 3	Detroit	17-48-5	39	0.557	13	Won 2	3-6-1	49.4%	18.5%
5 3	Ottawa	25-32-12	62	0.899	18	Won 2	5-4-1	38.8%	13.5%
6 3	Los Angeles	28-35-6	62	0.899	20	Won 6	7-2-1	33.9%	11.5%
7 2	Anaheim	28-32-9	65	0.942	19	Lost 1	4-4-2	26.1%	8.5%
8 2	Buffalo	30-31-8	68	0.986	22	Won 1	3-7-0	23.3%	7.5%
9 2	New Jersey	28-28-12	68	1.000	22	Won 2	6-2-2	20.4%	6.5%
10 2	Montreal	31-30-9	71	1.014	19	Lost 2	4-4-2	19.0%	6.0%
11 2	Chicago	31-30-8	70	1.014	22	Lost 2	5-5-0	16.0%	5.0%
12 1	Winnipeg	36-28-6	78	1.114	29	Won 3	6-3-1	9.8%	3.0%
13 1	Minnesota	35-27-7	77	1.116	30	Won 1	7-3-0	8.2%	2.5%
14	Florida	35-26-8	78	1.130	30	Won 2	4-4-2	5.0%	1.5%
15	Columbus	33-22-15	81	1.157	25	Won 1	3-4-3	3.3%	1.0%
END OF LOTTERY
16	Nashville	34-26-8	76	1.118	27	Won 2	5-4-1
17	Vancouver NJ	35-27-6	76	1.118	27	Lost 1	3-6-1
18	Calgary	36-27-7	79	1.129	25	Lost 1	6-3-1
19	Toronto CAR	35-25-9	79	1.145	27	Lost 3	4-5-1
20	NY Islanders OTT	35-23-9	79	1.179	24	Lost 6	2-5-3
21	Carolina NYR	37-25-5	79	1.179	26	Won 2	4-4-2
22	Edmonton	37-24-9	83	1.186	31	Lost 1	5-3-2
23	Dallas	37-23-8	82	1.206	26	Lost 5	3-4-3
24	Pittsburgh MIN	39-23-6	84	1.235	28	Lost 2	2-8-0
25	Washington	41-20-8	90	1.304	31	Lost 1	4-3-3
26	Colorado	41-20-8	90	1.304	37	Lost 1	7-2-1
27	Tampa Bay SJ	43-20-6	92	1.333	35	Lost 1	4-5-1
CONFERENCE FINAL LOSERS
28	Vegas	39-24-8	86	1.211	30	Won 2	8-2-0
29	Philadelphia	41-20-7	89	1.309	31	Won 9	9-1-0
STANLEY CUP FINAL TEAMS
30	St. Louis	41-19-10	92	1.314	32	Lost 1	8-2-0
31	Boston ANA	43-14-12	98	1.420	37	Lost 1	7-3-0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[NYSPORTS]

But if he invests that $1m he is still way ahead of everyone else at his similar age. Even if he's got to go to work at Walmart. He will be a multi-multi-millionaire by age 40 or 50, if he invest wisely.

Basically, absent making absolutely horrendous financial decisions (not returning to school and not investing the money), the choice with the worst downside if all goes bad is definitely the one where he never gets the million dollars to begin with.

.

$he $aid $he loved me

 

[RGY]

To add to our discussion around finishing your degree, @Amazing Kreiderman tweeted out the youtube video profile on Khodorenko;



And then we had @Steve Kournianos , who we all respect as a poster as we know his knowledge and coverage or prospects;



So for those who want to leave early, at the very least finish your degree now.

 

[BBKers]

Wall, Miller, Barron, Pajuniemi, Lundkvist all likely sign ELCs. BUt there are lots of expiring contracts. Trades. Therefore expect 2-3 more swing for the fences organisational signings from Europe, NCAA or Jrs.

 

[RGY]

Wall, Miller, Barron, Pajuniemi, Lundkvist all likely sign ELCs. BUt there are lots of expiring contracts. Trades. Therefore expect 2-3 more swing for the fences organisational signings from Europe, NCAA or Jrs.

Do you think Pajuniemi would come over on an ATO to join Hartford?

Wall and Barron likely wont be available until early April with their college programs competing in the Frozen Four

 

[LaffyTaffy]

Khodorenko is just like me lol. First Generation American with Belarussian parents. Pretty cool signing for personal reasons.