This trade deadline is a really tricky one for Drury. It's very easy to screw up. There are a lot of moving parts.
1. RENTALS
There are lots of "big" name rentals right now that will be narrowed down to a handful -- like 2 or 3 -- Hertl is likely to resign. Pavelski may not move. That means there will be a lot of suitors for Giroux. The pricetag will likely be substantial. And I'm not sure the Rangers should be trading A prospects or 1st round picks for rentals this year. There are too many teams that are simply in another class still. Lightning, Canes, Panthers, Avs, Vegas. I think we are clearly in the tier below those 5 teams. So, if we do rent, I think we need to focus on the 2nd and 3rd tier players on the rental list.
2. TOP PROSPECTS THAT WE NEED TO MOVE
- Kravtsov will likely need to be traded by the draft. If Drury moves him for a rental that's pretty bad asset management for a former 9th overall who is likely to have a career. 3rd rounder is also terrible asset management. Using VK in a package for a guy with term is likely his best use. But... bringing on anyone with term likely means trading roster players or at least saying goodbye to one in the offseason. Aka Ryan Strome, possibly Chytil. Hopefully Nemeth.
- Lundkvist. As mentioned by Vince M, it seems like Nils' patience with playing in HFD is limited. He is now potentially blocked by Schneider at RHD and it's unlikely he's going to show patience required to wait out Trouba. Lundkvist may need to move between now and next season as well. yet another 1st rounder we may not get the full value for. Again, with NL, you cannot trade him for a rental in a year we are unlikely going to win a cup. He would need to go for another team's top prospect -- (Kings?) or he would need to be part of a package for a player with term. If he is moved for a player with term, see 2022-23 cap issues as mentioned above.
3. STROME
if Strome won't come in at around 5.5m, we need to find another option. We should not be moving Kakko just keep Strome. Again, we will need to find a way to terminate Nemeth or move him in the offseason. We need more space. And even 1m freed up matters.
4. NEED 1-2 TOP 9 forwards
Kakko and Laf have not been able to assume full time top 6 minutes and produce (yet). But because we are in contention for playoffs, that issue is magnified. Plus, our 3rd line has lacked identity all year long. Only Goodrow is a good long term fit there. Gauthier, Chytil can be effective players but neither have transformed their game to become dependable 3rd line role players. Chytil needs to move to wing full time. And Gauthier is still 1-2 years away at best from making the transition to that kind of player. If he can ever get there. Barron is ideal at some point to be a bottom 6 player. Long term, Cullye and Berard are ideal. We need a 3rd line that has Goody + one other vet this year + Barron/Chytil or most likely Laff (unfortunately).
5. BOTTOM PAIR D
Schneider + ?. Nemeth, Tinordi and Hajek are not good options. Jones likely won't be given the chance. I don't see Gallant going with an all rookie bottom pair. So, we will need a far better vet option.
6. KAKKO OFFER SHEET
This may seem alarmist -- but Kotkaniemi was offer sheeted in the offseason and I don't think he is as good as Kakko. Rangers are going to be in a cap crunch and if someone offers Kakko anything north of 4 or 5 for 1 year, we're going to be F'd. I also don't get the sense that Kakko loves it here. We never really brought in another Finn other than having Georgy around who played for TPS prior to NHL. Again, nothing might come of it. But there is a legit chance someone might offer sheet Kakko. And it could literally be the Canes or MTL. The Rangers are likely focused on 2C before Kakko deal, and Kakko likely wants to finish strong to get a bigger bridge -- but they really should try to strike a deal before the FA period.
7. TRADE TARGETS WITH TERM
This one is really tricky. Given the cap situation next year and the year after, Rangers need to target players who are still under team control and making 5m range or lower. Anyone who is about to hit UFA will likely be hard to retain. The best move is a hockey trade using VK, NL, B prospects or draft capital as bait to land a young NHL top 9 forward (23-24 y/o) who has 2-3 seasons of control. But that is literally the hardest trade to make because those are the most coveted assets in the league. Hintz, Chychrun (on D) are examples of this kind of player.
That's why JT Miller keeps coming up. He is just outside of this kind of player and has only 1 more year of control. But because his contract is in the 5m range he's still considered a decent option as it buys a year to figure out a long term solution. But we are going to have to give up a lot for JT. Not just having to lose Strome in the offseason, but the current ask on JT is something in the ballpark of Kravtsov, Lundkvist and possibly a 1st. Which is, essentially 2-3 firsts. I think that's insane for just one 1 year of JT Miller.
EDIT: GEORGY
He's not coming back next year. We need to move him and bring up Kinkaid or grab another backup on the cheap.
If I'm Drury, I overpay a bit for the right 23/24 year old. Or I look into 1 for 1 prospect swaps for guys like Lundkvist and VK. And I look into guys like Lehkonen and Paul.
But bottom line - we are in an in-between season. We are no longer rebuilding but we are not yet in that top tier of contenders. We have some great pieces, but we are lacking the kind of NHL depth a team needs to compete at the highest levels. When the third line is still a repository for young guys who aren't good enough for top 6 minutes and the fourth line still has 2 players that should be 13th forwards, and the 3rd pair D is a rookie and a ? we are not ready. Are we 1 player away? No. Are we 3 players away? I mean, maybe. But once teams have the depth solved, then they tend to spend another 2-3 years wondering if they have the right core to get over the hump. So, yeah, we can't waste high value assets on the short term here or it will severely shorten our contention window. Even if it was still Gorton and JD, this would be a really challenging time. Just hope we don't make any more Buch trades.
