Speculation: Roster Building Thread XXXIII: 33rd thread twds the line of dead

[EdJovanovski]

A few thoughts:

1. I think a Hank to Colorado trade could get done -- if the two front-offices got creative. Only Toronto has shown a tendency to want to get creative, and they are not involved.

The thing is, I don't think Colorado would mind Hank as a rental, but they don't want to stand there with a big ego 4.5m back-up on their hands next season. And there is of course a risk for that. So if a trade could be arranged where Colorado would acquire Hank with a sell-option back to NY after the season, that they can use if things don't work out, they could definitely be game. But, and while I don't know this for sure, I don't think "options" like this are allowed under the CBA.

However, conditional picks are allowed and through them you could create a almost waterproof incentive for Gorton to take Hank back in a trade this summer if things haven't worked out in Colorado. For example, we trade Hank and a 2021 conditional 2nd to Colorado for a 4th and a 5th. Whatever. The 2021 conditional 2nd will go to Colorado if they buy out Hank next summer. When you revisit things after the season, its hard to see how (i) Gorton wouldn't want to agree to take Hank back to get Colorado to drop the condition, and (ii) its hard to see how Sakic wouldn't want to dump Hank back on us to save the money and cap space which a buy-out wastes for you. Circumvention? I could write many pages with arguments for it isn't which would be boring, but I will just say that I am convinced that it wouldn't be. Creating future incentives to act in a certain way is not circumvention.

2. Gorton should play Kreider up until the the deadline. He is by all accounts returning mostly picks, lottery tickets at improving the franchise significantly. The odds of Kreider getting hurt is just low. Every time we set a team on the ice we take big risks. Kakko could face a career ending injury. Should we sit him for meaningless games too?

These games aren't meaningless. We got a shot at the Cup this year, albeit tiny as ****. JMHO.

3. I am sure Gorton himself isn't at all certain on how many deals we will see at the deadline. But I think they could be fewer than what is expected, and I would definitely not rule out that we do not see Gorton make a single trade more (!). I could be wrong and that option could be very unlikely, but my take on this is that Gorton's "moves" in the air are on the more complicated scale, and time and ability to find a dance partner aren't a given.

4. Anyone know where Star Wars the Clone Wars Season 7 can be seen, I need to work and I am at home with the kids that are bugging me. PM me.

5. I don't know how Vegas calculates the odds for making the POs. But I have a hard time seeing us gain 6 pts on Carolina and the Islanders over 23 games. 46 pts to play for. If we go 16-7 we get 32 pts. Neither of those two teams can go 13-10. Who knows.

Firstly, I love this attitude. Secondly, a staggering statistic is that we have greater odds of going to the Stanley Cup Finals this year than winning the draft lottery. And 11x more likely to make the playoffs than win the draft lottery

 

[Ola]

Firstly, I love this attitude. Secondly, a staggering statistic is that we have greater odds of going to the Stanley Cup Finals this year than winning the draft lottery. And 11x more likely to make the playoffs than win the draft lottery

Yeah, I saw that you posted that. Its definitely interesting and puts things in a perspective.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

You all are assuming when @bobbop made that post it would be for Kreider straight up. It could have been very well for someone else or a package.

 

[Kovalev27]

Not giving Kreider 7 mil so you can give Strome 5 mil and block Chytil as well as Kakko on Pp1 will be one of the worst decisions we ever make

 

[RGY]

Ryan strome prior to the past year was a marginal player at best. You're comparing him to a guy with 2 cups, a 30g and two 20g seasons to his resume at the age of 27. Strome is 26 with a career high of 18g in a year and may be a late bloomer but I think he is more a product of right player in the right situation to see his production increase.

So if you're sitting here comparing strome to toffoli and expecting that return than I have to wonder why Benning didn't offer nyr that package for strome when he would come with control as an rfa center/wing rather than spend it on a ufa winger. The most likely answer is toffoli was a more attractive player option despite what you want to believe.

This board in general is absolutely falling into the trap of an nyr player has more value bc he's on my team.

Who cares what Ryan Strome was prior to this year? He is still only 26 years old. He was a 33 point player ages 23-25 (averaging). He had 50 points at age 21. You cant just write him off as nothing. Maybe he has finally figured it out here. I give Strome as much shit as anyone lately, and I do believe has certainly benefited from playing with Panarin, but lets not act like he would have ZERO points away from Panarin. Maybe he is at 30-35 points right now instead of 51. Still on track to finish with 40-45. From a 26 year old who has RFA status and can play wing or center, theres a lot of value there.

Why are we bringing up Benning now? Strome likely has not been on table. Gorton hasnt put his name out there because his primary focus is sorting out whether they will re-sign Kreider or trade him. They have to know that answer first. How do we know teams havent called about Strome or Buchnevich or Skjei? We dont. So lets not assume that because a trade hasnt happened yet it wont materialize in the coming days.

This board in general is falling into the trap of diminishing the value of its own players as it may be perceived around the league. Works both ways.

 

[SA16]

I highly doubt they are willing to give Strome 5M long term but not Kreider 6.5M or so. I don't expect them to, and wouldn't do, either. Nor do I expect Kreider to actually sign at that price.

 

[Good Intentions]

Not giving Kreider 7 mil so you can give Strome 5 mil and block Chytil as well as Kakko on Pp1 will be one of the worst decisions we ever make

Thank you. This x1000....

After both Skjei and Strome are punted on Monday, Kreider is resigning.

I can already hear the hysterical cry of the prospect porn folks.

 

[ZiGOODejad]

I’m fine with trading Strome, Skjei and Kreider. Just sign Jesper Fast please. I know he gets a lot of shit because he’s always thrown into offensive line, but the guy is extremely reliable.

 

[wafflepadsave]

Interesting...

Funny thing is that I thought they could use more of a boost on right wing than left.

 

[wafflepadsave]

They don’t even need to give me a first if they’ll include Newhook.

When is newhook even projected to break in the league? Could be two more years.

 

[wafflepadsave]

Kaut may have lost a bit of his shine and I have my doubts about his upside at the NHL level but of all the NYR deadline deals he would arguably be the highest value prospect coming back.

He’s a pretty good value piece if they are moving Kreider. And a clear #4 on the Avs prospect depth chart it sounds like.

I saw a projection of an awesome 3rd liner with the possibility of 2nd line play. I take that.

 

[wafflepadsave]

Not that I disagree that Kreider > Stome, but Stromer will cost less, is younger, and needs like, 3 points over the next 20 games to exceed CK’s career high in points.

You obviously credit Breadman for some of his success.... But, Strome produced about .5PPG last year w/o breadman on a new team.

Strome has been a, freaking fantastic acquisition for us. One of the most underrated trades Gorton has made here.

It’s not an easy decision for Gorton. CK, Strome, and ADA have all excelled. It’s a good problem to have, but it’s still a problem because you basically have to lose someone.

CK makes the most sense considering we have a 1LW. And he’ll cost the most. Doesn’t play Center. Isn’t a RHD 24 year old pimp like ADA. And will likely plateau in his contract whereas the other players at hand won’t.



Or, f*ck the previous plan.

I like it. Throw in Geo and change that 2nd to a guaranteed 1st with Kaut attached.

CK, Strome, Geo ~ Newhook + Kaut + 1st.

Trade Fast + Hajek/Howden for a 2nd.

Bundle our 1st, Colorado’s 1st and Lias for a top-5 pick.... (assuming we’re picking like, 12th).

PROFIIIIITTTTTT.

I need a shower after going full Bern. G’night you filthy shitheads.

Not enough or too much alcohol? Asking for the team.

 

[Leetch3]

Fun fact, we have over 10x higher odds of making the playoffs than we do winning the draft lottery.

Given how unlikely it is that we make the playoffs, I don’t find this fact fun or amusement.

Sadness/60

 

[GAGLine]

My two biggest concerns with regards to trading Kreider:

1) Losing a core player and leader when the team is starting to show an upwards trajectory
2) Taking the cap saved and throwing most of the savings at Ryan Strome instead

I'm trying to picture how this team is better over the next 5 years with Strome instead of Kreider.

Strome isn't getting a long term deal. He will get a 2 or 3 year deal with little to no trade protection, and he will more than likely be moved before that contract ends. In the meantime, he serves as a top 6 player for us and insulation for the kids.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Prediction- the Rangers acquire Kaut, but it won’t be for Kreider.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Not giving Kreider 7 mil so you can give Strome 5 mil and block Chytil as well as Kakko on Pp1 will be one of the worst decisions we ever make

Strome isn't blocking Chytil or Kakko he is sheltering them until they are able to handle the load. When Chytil is ready, Strome drops to third line, and I'd say after the deadline when Kreider is gone we will see more of Kakko on pp1. I see Strome getting 4-4.5 on a 3 year deal, gives him time to get another payday after this, that is if they dont move him.

 

[wafflepadsave]

Prediction- the Rangers acquire Kaut, but it won’t be for Kreider

I noticed there’s no period at the end of the sentence. Surely there’s more thought forthcoming.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Our favorite former poster/retired wrestler/lover of goon hockey saying the Caps are all in on Kreider

Kreider to the Avalanche confirmed then.

 

[Ola]

You all are assuming when @bobbop made that post it would be for Kreider straight up. It could have been very well for someone else or a package.

OMG, can it be anything else than Buch, Geo and Lias (?) for Newhook and Colorado's 1st in 2020/Kaut!??

 

[RGY]

Prediction- the Rangers acquire Kaut, but it won’t be for Kreider

Buchnevich for Kaut + 2nd?

Kaut jumps into the bottom 6. You slide Kakko up to the 1st line?

 

[Gardner McKay]

Buchnevich for Kaut + 2nd?

Kaut jumps into the bottom 6. You slide Kakko up to the 1st line?

Eek. No thanks. I really don’t want to see Buch traded.

I think we’re at the point where we are beginning to overestimate how ready some of these prospects are.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

OMG, can it be anything else than Buch, Geo and Lias (?) for Newhook and Colorado's 1st in 2020/Kaut!??

I was thinking possibly something around Strome and Kravstov for Newhook +.

 

[Ola]

Guys, correct me if I am wrong, but can we assume that Gorton is joggling the following balls, ranked somewhat in the following order against how likely Gorton would be to jump on an opportunity?

*Kreider -- UFA to be. Can be resigned or traded, self-rental seems unlikely.

*Fast -- Probably too expensive to keep, self-rental not out of the question if we don't get a good offer.

*Lias -- Value is a huge questionmark, and I am guessing Gorton would jump on any decent offer.

*Hank -- Same as Lias.

*Geo -- By moving him, we can't push Hank out. Maybe the goalie for the future?

*Buch -- RW log-jam down the road, makes sense from a cap perspective to move him. Will be really expensive if he performs thanks to the bridge deal.

*Strome -- Is he a top 2 line C on a cup contender? What is he without Panarin? Also RFA to be.

*Skjei -- LD log-jam.

Many names!

I am assuming that TDA isn't in there.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I noticed there’s no period at the end of the sentence. Surely there’s more thought forthcoming.

Oversight. I will make the needed correction.

 

[RGY]

Eek. No thanks. I really don’t want to see Buch traded.

I think we’re at the point where we are beginning to overestimate how ready some of these prospects are.

Are we overestimating where Newhook is then? Newhook could be 2-3 years away. We are fine with dealing Kreider, who is a much more valuable component to the makeup of the team than Buch for example, for a kid 2-3 years away? I like Buch but he, like Strome, is a guy they can live without and better use the cap space.

But i can see the concern dealing Buch for a prospect. I would definitely prefer a hockey trade