Been beating this drum but I would say a majority, if not vast majority, of posters can’t get over POINTS. I get that he paced for 100 points in the regular season, but that’s a great reason to move on, in my opinion. Teams that don’t watch Panarin intently night in and out will see the opportunity to add a 90+ point winger to their roster. It’s a good opportunity for us to shed cap, add a solid younger top six guy with upside and a couple of quality prospects, gain massive flexibility for the future and get out of the Panarin contract before it becomes ugly.
The regular season production this year was a fugazi. This is a retread of my previous posts but his first year pacing for 100 points here, he was 1st in the league in even strength production and had the best 5v5 goal differential in the league. Anyone watching could tell he was a tenacious puck hound who didn’t hesitate to drive the net or shoot just as often as make a dazzling pass. This year, while pacing for 100 points, he was 18th in even strength production - his first finish outside of the top 10 ever, but also a continued drop from last season, when he was 10th for the first time ever - and 56th in the NHL in 5v5 goal differential which is a huge drop in impact from his first season. He also picked up 38% of his points on the PP.
That is not the trajectory of someone I want 11.6M committed to on a team that will need to retain its young core and keep this window open. People will say it’s one year, but even last year, before the Wilson incident, his 5v5 goal differential had dropped to 51st from 1st and it was his lowest ever finish in 5v5 production until this year. He’s trending in the wrong direction and, as you said, at 31 he isn’t going to suddenly start attacking the center of the ice again when he’s as secure as can be with his contract.
The way I see it is this - let’s pretend we just came off the season we had but Panarin didn’t exist and we had an extra 12M in cap space (I know we wouldn’t have had the exact same season and Panarin’s money wouldn’t just be sitting there, bare with me). Would you guys want to go out and sign Gaudreau for 11M? I wouldn’t. I’d much rather add a 7M guy who will put up 20 less points and keep that cap space for other upgrades. Same concept with bread. I’d rather trade him for a 6M guy and prospects, or some such, and make other upgrades to this team. Flip Panarin, go out and sign PLD as a UFA next year. Whatever. LW is Kreider, Lafreniere, Otthman… Bread isn’t going to play the game we need to win a Cup and we won’t ever afford a real 2C while giving him 12M.