Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXXV

[mas0764]

I'm not even huge on Miller but calling that hypothetical trade a 'fireable offense' is beyond hyperbole.

It is in my eyes.

Moving a 1st rounder, after making 9 first round selections in the last 5 drafts, is something you can afford to do - especially with the young talent in the pipeline.

Moving "a" first rounder? Sure, that's survivable, if the return is right.

Moving three or four? You couldn't be more wrong.

We have glaring long term needs as well as short term needs, no matter how much the "win now," crowd wants to gloss them over. I get it that they want to buy on a credit card and don't care about trying to establish a decade-long contender, but no, it's not unrealistic to try to build a repeat winner, and yes, we should be trying to do exactly that.

Mika is about to be 29 and he's not the kind of player who projects to be a 1C when he's 33 or 34. We will be lucky if he avoids serious concussions and can gracefully transition to a high end, expensive 2C for the back half of his immovable contract. Strome is 28 and doesn't have a long term contract. These issues need to be addressed. You aren't going to be able to add impact players at forward or center fresh off a Conference Finals loss when you are hard up against the cap and you've already spent your warchest. These shortcomings need to be addressed with the flexibility we have NOW. If we can solve these issues, then feel free to rent to your heart's content, but we aren't there yet.

Our prime assets, assuming Kakko and Laf are rightfully off the table, should consist of Kravtsov, Chytil, and Othmann at forward, and (assuming KAM and Schneider are off the table, though I'm not as sure on the "rightfully" part there), Nils, Jones, and Robertson on defense. That's 6 prime assets that could be the desirable foundations to acquire an asset-expensive young 2C/future 1C. Call it 7 assets if you include our first round pick.

We can disagree over whether that target needs to be a young, unproven Lundell type with high upside, a proven superstar like Eichel, or simply a hard to acquire 2C that may be passable as a 1C someday like Larkin, but it's not really up for debate that this needs to be addressed and that the longer we wait the harder it will be to address.

The suggestion of the moment is to spend 3 of those 7 prime assets alone on 18 months of JT Miller, who we won't be able to afford to give an extension any more than we can afford to give Strome an extension. In fact, I've heard some people suggest FOUR of the 7 prime assets (ie, pawning off someone like Chytil to get a team to retain).

You do that and you are out of ammo. You have three prime assets left (say, Othmann, Jones, and Robertson), but those pieces are needed for our OWN roster. They need to be able to cheaply replace pieces such as, hypothetically, Trouba, Lindgren, and Kreider as those guys age out and become too expensive. It's not as easy as just saying "Well, draft more players." These prime assets were acquired through excellent luck drafting and by a saturation approach that we won't be replicating.

You trade 3-4 pieces for JT Miller and that is your big shot. There is no other.

And it leaves us woefully unprepared for our future needs that we will not have the assets for later.

It's insanity.

Nils is still a very good prospect but we have to be realistic about what the best use of him is. If Schneider is viewed as beating him out for a spot and they see Fox, Trouba and Schneider as their RH core, you kind of HAVE to trade Nils at some point and moving him now makes a hell of a lot more sense in that context than it would to hold onto him for 2-3 years where he never really has a place on this team and then his value kind of peeters out and he's not really worth much anymore. I'm not saying I want to trade Nils but there are very legitimate possible scenarios in the current team building where he simply doesn't have a role here going forward.

Ok, but then he needs to be packaged for a young core player with term.

Not JT Miller, a 29 year old who has 18 months here before he commands a massive contract that we can't afford and shouldn't want to tie ourselves to for 6-7 years.

A big part of roster building to try and win a Stanley Cup while being very efficient and keeping the pipeline stocked is to make your moves at the right time. Trade someone too soon and he breaks out elsewhere, hold on to someone too long and their value can plummet. We're trying to win a cup here, if you have a really good prospect who doesn't really fit into the construction of your team in the foreseeable future you should be actively looking to maximize his value whether it be in a trade or in making room for him so he can play.

I reject the idea that Nils is going to lose value dramatically. He acquitted himself well here actually. His stock is only "down," in the sense that another stud defenseman has (allegedly) surpassed him. And even if it is true that he's losing value cause he's stuck in Hartford, then f***ing bury Patrik Nemeth and get Nils up here to rehabilitate his damn value.

Plus whether we like Miller or not, take his name off of it and think it's just Player A and he's a point per game player who plays all situations and probably the best player overall on his team and he has another year left on his contract so you're getting him for two playoff runs. A player such as that is definitely worth Lundkvist+1st and a B prospect.

For our situation, no player is worth it for 2 runs unless it's like, Barkov or higher. And even then I'm not thrilled if I know the player is walking in 18 months.

This team really is not gonna win the Cup this year. People need to come to grips with that.

Once they do, they will see that overspending on a fool's errand to try to get over the hump is a waste of time and assets.

You wanna liquidate Nils and Krav, I'm fine with that. As long as it's for a long term core piece. Miller is not.

 

[mas0764]

Random thought but had we picked Evan Bouchard (would have been a great pick) over Kravtsov think what the log jam on the right side would be.

We would have traded up for a center instead of Schneider in 2020.

 

[mas0764]

Also say goodbye to Kakko or Laf. I don’t get why people cream themselves over Pettersson, by all accounts he’s been underwhelming in VAN since signing that bridge deal.

You mean in the 40 games he's played since signing that bridge deal? On a sinking Vancouver ship this season?

That's the sample we're looking at instead of his first three seasons?

 

[McRanger92]

To be fair, he's been borderline elite for Vancouver.

Again, my concern is that forwards almost uniformly get worse here and we've seen the player Miller is in our culture, which really hasn't changed any. That player is not worth it.

Historically you could say veteran forwards have come to NY and had their best seasons. Nash, Brassard, Zibanejad, Panarin, Strome. Miller is a different player than when he was 23. I’m not sold on the cost but he would make us significantly better

 

[McRanger92]

You mean in the 40 games he's played since signing that bridge deal? On a sinking Vancouver ship this season?

That's the sample we're looking at instead of his first three seasons?

Do you want to trade Kakko and/or lafreniere plus for that player? Who will be ask for 10+ mil in a few years?

 

[bobbop]

Asking for a friend, if you were to play the guessing game, what is the package that is taken for Miller; and are there more pieces coming back than just Miller

Random thought. Vancouver would like to move Halak to save money. If Drury is ready to cut bait with Georgiev, This could be an incentive to Vancouver to move sooner. Halak is going to hit his bonuses soon.

 

[bobbop]

Jeff Marek mentioned Wild Bill yesterday on his podcast. Why wouldn't Vegas look to move a center when Eichel returns? Elliotte Friedman didn't believe Vegas would move him. He didn't say the quiet part. Which team is taking on that contract in this economy?

Karlsson plays Selke level defense and is the most popular player on the team. That’s two reasons.

 

[TominNC]

It is in my eyes.



Moving "a" first rounder? Sure, that's survivable, if the return is right.

Moving three or four? You couldn't be more wrong.

We have glaring long term needs as well as short term needs, no matter how much the "win now," crowd wants to gloss them over. I get it that they want to buy on a credit card and don't care about trying to establish a decade-long contender, but no, it's not unrealistic to try to build a repeat winner, and yes, we should be trying to do exactly that.

Mika is about to be 29 and he's not the kind of player who projects to be a 1C when he's 33 or 34. We will be lucky if he avoids serious concussions and can gracefully transition to a high end, expensive 2C for the back half of his immovable contract. Strome is 28 and doesn't have a long term contract. These issues need to be addressed. You aren't going to be able to add impact players at forward or center fresh off a Conference Finals loss when you are hard up against the cap and you've already spent your warchest. These shortcomings need to be addressed with the flexibility we have NOW. If we can solve these issues, then feel free to rent to your heart's content, but we aren't there yet.

Our prime assets, assuming Kakko and Laf are rightfully off the table, should consist of Kravtsov, Chytil, and Othmann at forward, and (assuming KAM and Schneider are off the table, though I'm not as sure on the "rightfully" part there), Nils, Jones, and Robertson on defense. That's 6 prime assets that could be the desirable foundations to acquire an asset-expensive young 2C/future 1C. Call it 7 assets if you include our first round pick.

We can disagree over whether that target needs to be a young, unproven Lundell type with high upside, a proven superstar like Eichel, or simply a hard to acquire 2C that may be passable as a 1C someday like Larkin, but it's not really up for debate that this needs to be addressed and that the longer we wait the harder it will be to address.

The suggestion of the moment is to spend 3 of those 7 prime assets alone on 18 months of JT Miller, who we won't be able to afford to give an extension any more than we can afford to give Strome an extension. In fact, I've heard some people suggest FOUR of the 7 prime assets (ie, pawning off someone like Chytil to get a team to retain).

You do that and you are out of ammo. You have three prime assets left (say, Othmann, Jones, and Robertson), but those pieces are needed for our OWN roster. They need to be able to cheaply replace pieces such as, hypothetically, Trouba, Lindgren, and Kreider as those guys age out and become too expensive. It's not as easy as just saying "Well, draft more players." These prime assets were acquired through excellent luck drafting and by a saturation approach that we won't be replicating.

You trade 3-4 pieces for JT Miller and that is your big shot. There is no other.

And it leaves us woefully unprepared for our future needs that we will not have the assets for later.

It's insanity.



Ok, but then he needs to be packaged for a young core player with term.

Not JT Miller, a 29 year old who has 18 months here before he commands a massive contract that we can't afford and shouldn't want to tie ourselves to for 6-7 years.



I reject the idea that Nils is going to lose value dramatically. He acquitted himself well here actually. His stock is only "down," in the sense that another stud defenseman has (allegedly) surpassed him. And even if it is true that he's losing value cause he's stuck in Hartford, then f***ing bury Patrik Nemeth and get Nils up here to rehabilitate his damn value.



For our situation, no player is worth it for 2 runs unless it's like, Barkov or higher. And even then I'm not thrilled if I know the player is walking in 18 months.

This team really is not gonna win the Cup this year. People need to come to grips with that.

Once they do, they will see that overspending on a fool's errand to try to get over the hump is a waste of time and assets.

You wanna liquidate Nils and Krav, I'm fine with that. As long as it's for a long term core piece. Miller is not.

You could say ‘there not winning the cup’ every year forever and usually be right. But you need to try sometime. Kicking it down the road means passing up chances and never quite getting there.

 

[Thirty One]

Random thought. Vancouver would like to move Halak to save money. If Drury is ready to cut bait with Georgiev, This could be an incentive to Vancouver to move sooner. Halak is going to hit his bonuses soon.

He'll trigger it tonight, but the bonus is paid after the season so they can still get around paying it.

 

[MrAlmost]

How did Miller fail here? He had 56 points in 82 games as a 23 year old. Second on the team. That’s still more points than Kreider has ever had in a season.

Points are not all that makes a season. Miller has talent, but not enough, nor a long enough contract, nor is he still young enough to be the player we trade all our tradeable and valuable assets for.

 

[Machinehead]

Historically you could say veteran forwards have come to NY and had their best seasons. Nash, Brassard, Zibanejad, Panarin, Strome. Miller is a different player than when he was 23. I’m not sold on the cost but he would make us significantly better

Zibanejad and Panarin have had their most productive seasons on the scoresheet at the cost of everything else. They're actually very emblematic of the problematic way forwards play here.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

you could look at it that way, but he's not a rental in the strictest sense of the word. That extra year is important because if worst comes to worst you could recoup assets the following season, and best case is you have a good player for 2 playoff runs instead of one.

But you know that is not what is going to happen. If he is traded for we are out some of our best trade chips. He plays for a season and half and will be self rented. He wont be traded since he would be the de facto #2 center. Then after those two years we are right back where we started. It just becomes a vicious cycle. We wouldnt be recouping any assets bc thats not how its going to be esp if the rangers are in playoff contention.

 

[SA16]

Karlsson plays Selke level defense and is the most popular player on the team. That’s two reasons.

27 players received at least one Selke vote last year.

William Karlsson received zero.

38 players received at least one Selke vote in 2019.

William Karlsson received zero.

 

[McRanger92]

Zibanejad and Panarin have had their most productive seasons on the scoresheet at the cost of everything else. They're actually very emblematic of the problematic way forwards play here.

Didn’t Panarin lead the league in even strength points 2 years ago? And Zibanejad is playing the best all around hockey of his career right now

 

[Machinehead]

Didn’t Panarin lead the league in even strength points 2 years ago? And Zibanejad is playing the best all around hockey of his career right now

Yes, he was great two years ago. Now he's a powerplay specialist who gets wrecked at even strength. There's that pattern of decline again.

I don't know what to tell you on Zibanejad playing the best hockey of his career.

....No??? I guess? I'm gonna go with no?

 

[mas0764]

Do you want to trade Kakko and/or lafreniere plus for that player? Who will be ask for 10+ mil in a few years?

If that’s the cost, then no. But as we’ve seen this players like that don’t cost that much.

 

[mas0764]

You could say ‘there not winning the cup’ every year forever and usually be right. But you need to try sometime. Kicking it down the road means passing up chances and never quite getting there.

There are times to try, but they are not as often as teams think, and certainly not for this team right now.

Again, renting is generally a losing proposition. It’s usually a bad idea to lose a value exchange just cause it makes you slightly better (if at all) for 4 months. GMs are unreasonably married to this concept. It’s archaic and outdated and a bad idea generally.

 

[McRanger92]

If that’s the cost, then no. But as we’ve seen this players like that don’t cost that much.

Petey will cost whatever a fully healthy Eichel would’ve. 2 of Kakko/Laf/Miller/Schneid most likely. Those guys are so hard to acquire. I think signing Strome to a 5-5.75 AAV deal is the best path.

 

[Machinehead]

27 players received at least one Selke vote last year.

William Karlsson received zero.

38 players received at least one Selke vote in 2019.

William Karlsson received zero.

The Selke is an award for scoring exactly 72 points and (mostly) being North American, so I wouldn't put any stock into that, but yes, I see Karlsson as a bang average defender.

 

[Alluckks]

Random thought. Vancouver would like to move Halak to save money. If Drury is ready to cut bait with Georgiev, This could be an incentive to Vancouver to move sooner. Halak is going to hit his bonuses soon.

Halak has a clause that allows the bonus to be traded even after it has been reached.

I have thought about the Georgiev/Halak thing, but unsure if the Rangers would want to pull the trigger on that right now. They may prefer to wait till the offseason to move Georgiev and pick a backup that they like more.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

This is pure hindsight as it wasn't just the team. The entire fanbase was ready to discard him into the staten island dump and where shocked we were able to get anything back for him.

I'm still not entirely sold on him. His shooting percentage is insanely high this season. He is doing a lot with very little ice time over there though

Not this guy

 

[McRanger92]

General question on Miller: What exactly did he do that made him such a “locker room cancer” that needed to be moved? I remember whispers of a rift between him and AV but nothing concrete. He seemingly quit after the later too but hard to blame him on both counts. Just seems like an undeserved reputation

 

[Boris Zubov]

General question on Miller: What exactly did he do that made him such a “locker room cancer” that needed to be moved? I remember whispers of a rift between him and AV but nothing concrete. He seemingly quit after the later too but hard to blame him on both counts. Just seems like an undeserved reputation

It was all hearsay...bullshit made up by the posters here who didn't like him.

Something about going out & partying too much & being unpopular in the locker room. Complete garbage, unsubstantiated rumors that were reported nowhere else but here.

 

[Synergy27]

Brett Howden has more points than KK and Laf this year.

What the f***

This timeline is just cruel. Brutal. Painful. Sad.

 

[McRanger92]

It was all hearsay...bullshit made up by the posters here who didn't like him.

Something about going out & partying too much & being unpopular in the locker room. Complete garbage, unsubstantiated rumors that were reported nowhere else but here.

That’s what I suspected. I see chatter about it on twitter too but no one ever says anything explicit about it so it seems like BS