Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXXIV

[McRanger92]

The Staple pod is really just naming the same ten guys talked about here.

Says a lot is tied to Strome, says he would think if they got Hertl they would want to re-sign him. He threw out a first and either Nils or Jones as the cost for Hertl.

The Sharks getting out from that Kane contract and surprisingly competent play this year makes me think Hertl will stay there.

 

[JohnC]

Agreed 100%

I dont discount advance stats totally, but they are a minor attribute. They cannot account for shift by shift, period by period momentum, line chemistry, in game video analysis that leads to tactical approach, etc ...

Hockey is way too fluid and random to predict. That's the beauty of it.

I’d add that it’s not really advanced stats talk that has made this place exhausting to be around, just that the people that are making it exhausting to be around are usually also the most inclined to cite advanced stats.

Not sure if it’s a coincidence or not, but just an observation.

 

[SA16]

Seravelli just posted an article on daily faceoff saying Lehkonen may be able to net a 1st round pick so you can cross that one off the list please

 

[smoneil]

I know this is directed at me, but im not the one bringing up trading him or baselessly claiming he’s a problem in the locker room.

As the person who brought up the concept of trading him, stating clearly that it was a hypothetical, I don't get your over-reaction. It's a hockey board where there have been some days between games. This is literally a "roster-building" thread. It is, by definition, the place where we can discuss hypothetical ways to improve the team. Assuming none of us are Drury/Sather, none of this shit actually means anything beyond the enjoyment of tossing ideas around. But there are WAY too many people here lately (and I'm not saying I've stayed out of all of it) who would rather fight with each other rather than discuss ideas. Instead of "He'll never be traded and you're an idiot for thinking he's a problem" (or whatever the handful of sarcastic responses were), you could have easily moved on past the post or even tried, "I would never move Panarin, but here's what I would look to get in return if we did." We're fans. Not GMs. A lot of folks (again, myself included at times) need to remember that and unclench.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Seravelli just posted an article on daily faceoff saying Lehkonen may be able to net a 1st round pick so you can cross that one off the list please

Not a total surprise considering what Goodrow brought back, but no way I would give up a 1st either.

 

[Thirty One]

I’d add that it’s not really advanced stats talk that has made this place exhausting to be around, just that the people that are making it exhausting to be around are usually also the most inclined to cite advanced stats.

Not sure if it’s a coincidence or not, but just an observation.

Make a scatterplot and see how strong the correlation is.

 

[smoneil]

They should draft at least 5 -6 of them this year...it will take at least a good young C probably 5 yrs to be a highly regarded #2 guy .....by then we will need a #1 Center....what a vicious circle we are in .

I'd like to see us hoard our chips at the trade deadline (or even just weaponize the cap space by being the third team to retain on a UFA in exchange for a pick) and then use those pieces at the draft to move up. There are some VERY good centers in the top third of the first round. I'd rather have one of them than a year and a half of JT Miller.

 

[smoneil]

No Fil tonight.

Did they ever say what his actual injury was beyond "upper body"? Are we assuming concussion? More issues with his wrist?

 

[JohnC]

Make a scatterplot and see how strong the correlation is.

No. I’m no nerd!!

 

[smoneil]

Say what you want but I could care less about analytics or “fancy stats” or whatever the shit is called. Personally I think it’s mostly a group of people who’ve never played the game or know the ins and outs and just pleasure themselves to pie charts all day. Hockey is a lightning fast sport, this isn’t baseball, there’s so many moving variables. I’ve asked professional hockey coaches and players their opinions about advanced stats and nobody cared. It’s the know nothing nerds like Adam Pee Wee Herman that ruin people’s enjoyment of the sport. But then again, what would I know? My expected quality posts per 60 is low so.

I don't have any problems with people who like analytics. But I am an absolute moron at math, so I always get frustrated when the advanced stats folks drop a chart and then don't explain it. Like, I know I'm the math idiot, but I want to just look at folks like that and be all "Use your words..."

And before anyone follows up with "it's really easy if you just look at it"-- 1: You underestimate the stupidity level of my mathing, and 2: I will totally drop some medieval drama on here with no context and give you the same response, haha. We all have our talents.

 

[JohnC]

I don't have any problems with people who like analytics. But I am an absolute moron at math, so I always get frustrated when the advanced stats folks drop a chart and then don't explain it. Like, I know I'm the math idiot, but I want to just look at folks like that and be all "Use your words..."

And before anyone follows up with "it's really easy if you just look at it"-- 1: You underestimate the stupidity level of my mathing, and 2: I will totally drop some medieval drama on here with no context and give you the same response, haha. We all have our talents.

Circumstantial. Some are really easy to read, others, like some of IneffectiveMath’s, are terrible.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Was just looking over Dallas' prospects ranked by Wheeler on The Athletic. They have 5 centers in their top 10 and only one RHD in their system (ranked at 13 by Wheeler). I wonder if there's a trade there - young RHD for young C.

Well if we do something like that and pick up a Marek Bourque type player, that’s good but since he’s gonna need another year or so then maybe we have to backfill someone with short term like a Miller.

 

[smoneil]

Circumstantial. Some are really easy to read, others, like some of IneffectiveMath’s, are terrible.

Nah. I took the GRE twice. The first time, I put all my energy into the math section, because I was worried it would keep me out of grad school. Got a lousy math score. The second time (as I was finishing up the MA and applying to PhD schools), my advisor told me that no English department cares about the math score, and that I could guess randomly and it wouldn't matter. While I don't think he was seriously suggesting that I do that, I went with the advice. I decided that if the math section came up first, I would guess randomly so I would be fresh for the verbal. Finished the math section in literally about 2 minutes. And it worked. My verbal score went up by a good bit. The scary part is that my math score went up by a LOT. Random guessing is significantly better at math than my sincere best effort, haha.

 

[Kocur Dill]

Not a total surprise considering what Goodrow brought back, but no way I would give up a 1st either.

Tampa was the definition of "all in" that season. They blew whatever capital they had on Goodrow and Colman iirc other assets too that I can't recall.

I wouldn't be surprised if they are in on Lehkonen and Garland this year if not both.

 

[bobbop]

Staal was pretty cooked last year with MTL. Don't see how he will add anything to the Rangers. The Rangers need more speed, not to get even slower.

I didn’t see his time in Montreal the same way you do.

 

[smoneil]

Well if we do something like that and pick up a Marek Bourque type player, that’s good but since he’s gonna need another year or so then maybe we have to backfill someone with short term like a Miller.

If you take the pieces we'd need to trade to get Mavrik Bourque, and add them to the pieces we'd need to trade for JT Miller, I bet that you'd end up with a package that could get us a pick in the 3 to 6 range of the draft (where there will almost certainly be a better center than Bourque). I do think the Bourque/Miller move would make the team better in the short term, but I also think targeting a jump up the draft would be better in the long term.

 

[RGY]

I didn’t see his time in Montreal the same way you do.

Eric Staal would be an immediate upgrade to the bottom 6.

 

[rangers1314]

Delete

 

[SA16]

Not a total surprise considering what Goodrow brought back, but no way I would give up a 1st either.

That was with an extra year left at 925k though. Lehkonen has a 2.3M QO

 

[jay from jersey]

I wonder if they would have opened up a spot for Hughes by not signing Strome to that two year extension. If they STILL would have signed him to that extension, I wonder whether Hughes would have received the minutes he needed to become what he is now. It's tough.

Yea or maybe they would have shifted him to wing??? I guess it would have had a lot to do with who looked good with who.....
I would have liked to see a Panarin-Hughes-Blais/Buch line..... ahh what could have been... oh well

 

[mas0764]

It's just the absolute bonkers confidence that the guys on Twitter have in themselves, they honestly believe they're 100% correct and most NHL coaches and GMs are boomer idiots. It's unbearable.

But the truth is actually somewhere in between, though. Hockey execs do make lots of bad decisions. The league is a big club, and as George Carlin would say, you and I ain’t in it. They don’t make room for new ideas often enough, they recycle the same guys to coaching and GM positions.

 

[jay from jersey]

Seravelli just posted an article on daily faceoff saying Lehkonen may be able to net a 1st round pick so you can cross that one off the list please

Yea, not a shot I’d pay a 1st for a 3rd line RFA.

nice player, but if that’s the cost I’d rather go after jarnkrok.
Still say a 2nd+ Renunnen. Prob gets it done imo

 

[NYR Viper]

I don’t think Lehkonen returns a 1st. The Habs are over the cap which means if they trade h they can’t take a larger contract back. Almost all of the buyers are at or near the cap themselves which means they will need to send a contract back or somewhere else. On top of that, how many teams are going to trade a 1st at this deadline? 3? Maybe 4 max? Look at the list of rentals and find the top 3-4. Lehkonen isn’t close to that list.

 

[wafflepadsave]

From a paywalled ESPN article on whether the Rangers are contenders or not:
"Do the Rangers play better when Shesterkin is in net because they have confidence in their goalie? Or is it Shesterkin actually making New York appear better as a team than it really is?
The general consensus is that the truth about the Rangers probably falls somewhere in the middle.
"Put it this way," one scout said. "I believe the Rangers can go as far as Shesterkin can take them."
Others were a little more direct in their feelings on the Rangers.
We asked one NHL executive whether the Rangers are "just" Igor Shesterkin.
"Yes," they said.
Is there anything else to New York's success?
"No," they said. "They're not very good."

Says Chris Drury.

 

[JayAB81]

So, the Rangers have the following players signed for 2022-2023.

LW 10 Artermi Panarin(2025-2026)- $11,642,857
LW 20 Chris Kreider(2026-2027)- $6,500,000
LW 13 Alexis Lafreniere(2022-2023)- $925,000
LW 21 Barclay Goodrow(2026-2027)- $3,641,667
LW 50 Will Cuylle(2023-2024)- $925,000
LW 29 Dryden Hunt(2022-2023)- $762,500
LW 26 Tim Gettinger(2021-2022)- $750,000
LW 78 Brennan Othmann(2023-2024)- $925,000
C 93 Mika Zibanejad(2029-2030)- $8,500,000
C 72 Filip Chytil(2022-2023)- $2,300,000
C 47 Morgan Barron(2022-2023)- $925,000
C 82 Patrick Khodorenko(2022-2023)- $925,000
C 73 Matt Rempe(2023-2024)- $838,333
RW 75 Ryan Reaves(2022-2023)- $1,750,000
RW 49 Lauri Pajuniemi(2022-2023)- $883,750
LD 55 Ryan Lindgren(2023-2024)- $3,000,000
LD 79 K’Andre Miller(2022-2023)- $925,000
LD 12 Patrik Nemeth(2023-2024)- $2,500,000
LD 5 Jarred Tinordi(2022-2023)- $900,000
LD 25 Libor Hajek(2021-2022)- $874,125
LD 51 Tarmo Reunanen(2021-2022)- $809,167
LD 6 Zac Jones(2022-2023)- $925,000
LD 22 Anthony Bitetto(2021-2022)- $737,500
LD 44 Matthew Robertson(2023-2024)- $797,500
RD 23 Adam Fox(2028-2029)- $9,500,000
RD 8 Jacob Trouba(2025-2026)- $8,000,000
RD 27 Nils Lundkvist(2023-2024)- $925,000
RD 45 Braden Schneider(2023-2024)- $925,000
RD 53 Hunter Skinner(2023-2024)- $850,833
G 31 Igor Shesterkin(2024-2025)- $5,666,667
G 98 Dylan Garand(2023-2024)- $850,833

Our pending free agents.

LW 26 Tim Gettinger – RFA
C 16 Ryan Strome – UFA
C 17 Kevin Rooney – UFA
C 76 Jonny Brodzinski – UFA
C 14 Greg McKegg – UFA
C 90 Justin Richards – RFA
RW 24 Kaapo Kakko – RFA
RW 91 Sammy Blais – RFA
RW 15 Julien Gauthier – RFA
RW 74 Vitali Kravtsov – RFA
RW 85 Austin Rueschhoff – RFA
RW 28 Anthony Greco – UFA
RW 63 Jake Elmer – RFA
RW 59 Ty Ronning – RFA
LD 25 Libor Hajek – RFA
LD 22 Anthony Bitetto – UFA
LD 51 Tarmo Reunanen – RFA
G 40 Alexander Georgiev – RFA
G 80 Tyler Wall – RFA
G 71 Keith Kinkaid – UFA
G 32 Adam Huska – RFA

According to CapFriendly.com, the Rangers would have $9,683,531 in salary cap room, this includes, I believe, their 23 man active roster, their 3 players on IR, & Patrik Nemeth of Non-Roster.

The current 23-man roster according to CapFriendly looks like this.

LW 10 Artermi Panarin
LW/RW 20 Chris Kreider
LW/RW 13 Alexis Lafreniere
C 93 Mika Zibanejad
C/RW 16 Ryan Strome
C/LW 21 Barclay Goodrow
C/LW 47 Morgan Barron
C/LW 72 Filip Chytil
C/LW/RW 17 Kevin Rooney
C/LW 14 Greg McKegg
C 76 Jonny Brodzinski
RW/LW 29 Dryden Hunt
RW 15 Julien Gauthier
RW 75 Ryan Reaves
LD 55 Ryan Lindgren
LD 79 K’Andre Miller
LD 25 Libor Hajek
LD 6 Zac Jones
RD 8 Jacob Trouba
RD 27 Nils Lundkvist
RD 45 Braden Schneider
G 31 Igor Shesterkin
G 40 Alexander Georgiev

Now their Non-Roster & IR players.

RW 24 Kaapo Kakko
RW 91 Sammy Blais
LD 12 Patrik Nemeth
RD 23 Adam Fox

I am really enjoying this season, the team is finally winning games, even when they’re losing, they’re completive.

So, I wonder what the likelihood that they can retain Ryan Strome, Kaapo Kakko, & Sammy Blais with just roughly $8,758,531 in projected cap room in 2022-2023.

I can’t imagine that Blais would cost that much, but Strome & Kakko have been really good, I wonder if they’d give Strome say $5.5 million a year, which leaves just $3,258,531 in cap room, so if Blais gets $1.5M again, & Kakko gets a bridge deal, say $3 million, that’d put them $1,241,469 over the cap, of course, CapFriendly has 17 players with contracts for 2022-2023, plus add in these 3, that’s 20 players.

If the Rangers re-sign Strome, would they trade Filip Chytil to clear his $2.3 million cap number for 2022-2023, I’m guessing this depends on how they feel about the likes of Morgan Barron, Karl Henrikkson, Matt Rempe, Justin Richards, & Patrick Khoderenko being ready to fill in come 2022-2023.

They also have a young player who could very well find their ways onto the 23-man roster in 2022-2023, that player being LW Will Cuylle.

Of course, Georgiev won’t be back, so they’ll need a new backup Goalie, also Gauthier & Hajek are also RFAs, I guess they could end up trading their rights away.

Of course, the Rangers could be active at the deadline, as they’ve been linked to both Vancouver Canucks’ LW/RW Connor Garland, who is signed through 2025-2026 counting $4.95 million a year against the cap, and Arizona Coyotes LD Jakob Chychrun, who is signed through 2024-2025 counting $4.6 million a year against the cap.

You have to believe that the asking price for either of the above players would be a 1st-round pick, a young player, maybe a top tier prospect, which has me wondering if Nils Lundkvist is even in the Rangers long term plans, as he’s been relegated to Hartford, & the Taxi Squad, despite him being on the 23-man roster, which is only likely due to the injury to Adam Fox, & Patrik Nemeth being on the NHL Non-Roster list.

Below are the Rangers 18 unsigned draft picks according to CapFriendly.com

LW 83 Leevi Aaltonen(Must sign by June 1, 2023)
LW -- Brett Berard(Must sign by August 15, 2024)
LW Kalle Vaisanen(Must sign by June 1, 2025)
C 84 Adam Edstrom(Must sign by June 1, 2023)
C – Oliver Tarnstrom(Must sign by June 1, 2024)
C 38 Evan Vierling(Must sign by June 1, 2022)
C 96 Jayden Grubbe(Must sign by June 1, 2023)
C 83 Ryder Korczak(Must sign by June 1, 2023)
RW 52 Eric Ciccolini(Must sign by August 15, 2023)
RW 67 Riley Hughes(Must sign by August 15, 2023)
RW – Jaroslav Chmelar(Must sign by June 1, 2025)
RW 46 Brody Lamb(Must sign by August 15, 2026)
LD 91 Jacob Ragnarsson(Must sign by June 1, 2022)
LD 54 Simon Kjellberg(Must sign by August 15, 2023)
LD – Hank Kempf(Must sign by August 15, 2025)
G 56 Talyn Boyko(Must sign by June 1, 2023)
G 60 Olof Lindbom(Must sign by June 1, 2022)
G – Hugo Ollas(Must sign by June 1, 2024)

I don’t keep up with the prospects, especially those playing in foreign leagues, so idk who of Lindbom, Vierling, & Ragnarsson will likely sign by June 1, 2022.

I’d love to hear what young players, like Lafreniere, Miller, Jones, Schneider, Lundkvist, Kakko, Cuylle, Barron, & Othmann would the Rangers deem off limits, & which would be available.