Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXIV

[Machinehead]

If our current crop goes the way of Jeff Brown (1996), Cherneski (1997 - injured), Malhotra (1998), Brendl (1999), Lundmark (1999), most of the fanbase will be in a mental institution. The worst case scenario anyone here expects is literally the best realistic scenario - our prospects will mostly reach their ceiling, but it will take 3-4 years.

Between 1987 and 2008, we drafted 2 above average NHLers (Kovalev and Staal) in the first round. We can throw in Dubinsky, Cally, Tyutin, Lundqvist, Savard, Weight, Zubov, and Amonte in later rounds. So that's 10 total above average NHLers in 22 drafts. Heads will implode if we have a run like this where we get fewer than 1 good player per 2 drafts.

Well, yeah, we have to like, not suck.

 

[Bob Richards]

Well, yeah, we have to like, not suck.

I'm.............I'm just not sure I'm ready.

 

[LORDE]

Lol @ 4 or 5 years for Strome

People need to lay off the pipe

Guy has been fine but we aren’t giving contracts beyond 21 to anyone who isn’t a cog

 

[Lone Ranger]

-Neal Pionk gets into real estate. He's happy and able to support his family. See, I'm a nice guy.


No one will let Pionk sell their home if they've seen how he handles the puck under pressure. They'd be afraid he'll give away their house!

 

[I Eat Crow]

Really bad contract by Arizona. This is more $ than Zibanejad is making! Player had little leverage. Pretty soon they will be writing a $6-7 MM contract for Keller. Can’t begin to figure this one out.

$6-7 million? That's a very optimistic number for a long term Keller extension.

 

[Chaels Arms]

Friedman again brought up the Rangers when Panarin was mentioned on his newest podcast. They were talking about Florida and Bobrovsky. Marek mentioned the idea that Bobrovsky and Panarin might go to Florida together. Friedman shot that down. He's not sure Panarin wants to go to Florida.

He said the Rangers are the top destination for Panarin. Most importantly, he said "the Rangers really want him."

Friedman just interviewed Ryan Strome and joked around about how he texted his contacts at the Rangers to let him interview more players given how well Strome played after the interview.

Friedman doesn't make this stuff up out of thin air. He just broke the Newell signing too.

 

[Beacon]

Well, yeah, we have to like, not suck.

So since we don't know how things will play out with our draftees, we need to not sign UFAs. Not a comment at you, just in general at people who want UFAs because they assume every prospects hits the ceilings. Top prospects Cherneski, Novak, Kloucek, Blackburn, Cherepanov all got injured (or died), but no doubt that won't happen to any of the future prospects, right? Not like hockey players get injured. We traded away our best draftee (Savard) since 1990 (Zubov), for essentially nothing. And we dumped Zubov too. Who says we don't whiff on a trade?

Every year or two, there's a Panarin. The best case is that we are good in 3-4 years, but with UFAs you pay a high price knowing the back end of the contracts will be an anchor on the team. So do we need to sign an albatross for 2022, 2023, 2024? There will be another good player in his prime between now and 2021. If Chytil AND Kravtsov BOTH become first liners AND DeAngelo becomes a first pair defenseman, we'll talk about UFAs. If that won't happen, keep drafting until you get at least 4 of 5 first pair and first line players, so the UFA fills in the last of the 5 spots. Don't bring him to build around. That's the strategery that failed for 54 years, and then another 25+.

 

[Irishguy42]

If you look at the upcoming UFA classes for three or four years, there is literally no one as good as Panarin becoming available.

Every year or two, there's a Panarin.

 

[Ola]

If you look at the upcoming UFA classes for three or four years, there is literally no one as good as Panarin becoming available.

Seems like we would be right up against the cap if we give Panarin 10m per and lock-up the kids long term. Or?

That flexibility could be really valuable too. Not to take on bad contracts, but teams will be looking to move good players and there are few takers...

 

[Ola]

Lol @ 4 or 5 years for Strome

People need to lay off the pipe

Guy has been fine but we aren’t giving contracts beyond 21 to anyone who isn’t a cog

Scott Mayfield’s 5 year deal is great. It’s all about AAV.

 

[Ola]

If you want to stir things up, you can say that Ryan Strome is doing what the almighty Derek Stepan made a living of. Getting ice time as a RHS center and then skating to the net with his stick on the ice looking for slam dunks.

Seriously though, you do get some consistent production in that role by just putting the skates on the ice.

With that said, Strome is not an awful player and he contributes in some areas. I am not against giving him a long term deal — but the AAV would have to come down. Will it for Strome? I doubt it. 2.5-2.75. He will probably end up getting closer to 4m somewhere else... Good for him.

 

[egelband]

I've seen enough of Lettieri and Brickley time to give someone else a chance. Letteri and Gropp have different skill sets. Give Gropp a couple games before the offseason,give him something to strive for in the offseason. Maybe he works harder to get to the NHL next year. If he doesnt we dont have to resign him after next year and you can say well we did everything we could, if he does show up with a purpose this fall then you have next year to see if he is part of the solution instead of a wasted pick. I don't see a downside.

I think Quinn likes Letteri a good bit. And I can see why. He has a few plus tools. He hasn't put it together but he's not a lost cause. The guy has a good one-timer that he gets on net. He's pretty fast. He's pretty fearless. I don't think he's getting thrown away just yet.

 

[egelband]

I know it's fun to goof on Vesey but I don't quite him off at all. He's not a do-it-all guy but he has some good skills and has been improving consistently. He's a Quinn-type guy as well. Miller is a real bozo but Vesey is not.

 

[egelband]

Wow. Just read that Nick Smaltz got almost $6m per for 7 years. I'm not entirely sure who that is. But I'd wager this seals it: Krieder is getting traded.

 

[DaBadGuy7]

Seems like we would be right up against the cap if we give Panarin 10m per and lock-up the kids long term. Or?

That flexibility could be really valuable too. Not to take on bad contracts, but teams will be looking to move good players and there are few takers...

That why this whole Rangers all in on Panarin by these insiders doesn’t really make sense to me. Rangers don’t really that much cap space to fit Panarin as well sign some of their RFA as well. Now if they clear Kreider, Smith, and Shattenkirk contracts off then I might understand despite my preference not to sign Panarin altogether. I see the Rangers having interest, but if his contract demands get too high, I can definitely see them bowing out too.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Wow. Just read that Nick Smaltz got almost $6m per for 7 years. I'm not entirely sure who that is. But I'd wager this seals it: Krieder is getting traded.

Yes not too good $5.85x7 years. Schmaltz is 23 so the deal buys out 3 years of UFA I believe.
This is his 3rd full season (First with the Yotes, was part of the Strome trade) though hes been hurt for part of this season.

His best season was last year with 21 goals and 52pts. This year he has 25pts in 40 games.

Hes listed as a center, though not sure that is what he plays on the Yotes. Could be a reason to pay a bit of a premium there. In his UFA years hes getting paid $7.5 and 8.5 x2. That could be what hurts, but its 4 years in the future, where the cap hit to cap ceiling ratio is going to be lower.

Compared to Kreider, a winger who has put 4 seasons of 21 or more goals but has put up more than 50 points only twice.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Friedman again brought up the Rangers when Panarin was mentioned on his newest podcast. They were talking about Florida and Bobrovsky. Marek mentioned the idea that Bobrovsky and Panarin might go to Florida together. Friedman shot that down. He's not sure Panarin wants to go to Florida.

He said the Rangers are the top destination for Panarin. Most importantly, he said "the Rangers really want him."

Friedman just interviewed Ryan Strome and joked around about how he texted his contacts at the Rangers to let him interview more players given how well Strome played after the interview.

Friedman doesn't make this stuff up out of thin air. He just broke the Newell signing too.

He actually said LA was #1 but he doesn't know how they'd do it.

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Ola]

That why this whole Rangers all in on Panarin by these insiders doesn’t really make sense to me. Rangers don’t really that much cap space to fit Panarin as well sign some of their RFA as well. Now if they clear Kreider, Smith, and Shattenkirk contracts off then I might understand despite my preference not to sign Panarin altogether. I see the Rangers having interest, but if his contract demands get too high, I can definitely see them bowing out too.

Yeah I am in the same corner. I don’t think Panarin would be a Richards/Shattenkirk type of signing, Panarin is stronger individually than those two. Should age better.

If can clear like Shatty and move Kreider, I don’t think it’s the end of the world if we can sign him although if I would prefer not to. I think he would turn out to be a Gabby type of signing. Not someone that is an achor.

But I think it’s a very big and potentially tremendously costly mistake to be cheap with the kids and force them into bridge deals only to be able to to fit Panarin under the cap.

And it’s also a big sacrifice to go into the season without a lot of mobility under the cap. We have time after time seen teams looking to move top players the last years, but there haven’t been a lot of buyers. We have seen plenty of good top guys being traded, and for every guy like Karlsson that has been moved there is a number of guys that teams would have moved if they would have received better offers.

There will be more deals like that made the coming years. 3 years ago it was ridiculous to expect a Karlsson trade with the return he got. Who is the next guy to be moved for a — much — lower return than expected? Kane? Draisatl? Willy Nylander? Stamkos? Tarasenko? Doughty? Who knows. But teams ends up in positions where they clearly are not good enough AND they clearly has zero mobility for several years to come. They are forced to do something. And even with like great young players, when they are bound to get paid market value and will negotiate hard — you have to ask yourself if it’s worth paying 10-11m per for the kid in question. MTL didn’t want to do it with Subban. Boston with Hamilton. RB pitched the idea of Tkachuk. It’s of course a real long shot, but if we look at a 5 year period, teams will certainly consider options even with top young kids.

All of a sudden a team like Winnipeg is just fed up with Laine, Calgary have had it with Tkachuk, or something like that. How many takers of a 10m contract can you find? Exactly what type of future assets will teams be willing to give up?

If we have flexibility under the cap Gorton will be first in line in all these discussions. If we don’t have any flexibility under the cap, we will be on the sideline. It’s as simple as that.

 

[kovazub94]

Fast, Vesey and Names should go. Maybe a 3rd and a late pick like 6 or 7 for each. Maybe a second.

Kreider for a Hayes-like package plus another late second or third.

So 2 firsts, 2 seconds, 4 third, a bunch of 6 and 7 rounders in 2020.

Then a second or a third for each of Shatty, Staal and Smith in 2021. This would be the first draft since 2016 not to have us at multiple firsts, but 6 picks in rounds 2 and 3 will help.

After that, the rebuild should be over unless this one fails because our draftees bust.

Who’s going to be in your top6 next (top9) next year if Kreider, Namestnikov, Fast and Vesey are gone?

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Panarin has only been through the rigours of 4 NHL season. Hes played essentially every game save 1 or 2 each year. Not saying playing in the KHL isnt rough but the NHL with a smaller rink has more physical contact. KHL regular season is also just 60 games I believe. I dont think you are going to see that regression at age 32/33. He turns 28 one month into next season.

Hes been a 30 goal/ppg player average just about over those 4 years. I think you get that production until hes 34/35 where it starts to drop off (but not fall off a cliff). So that's a minimum of 5 30 goal/ppg seasons followed by a couple of 20 goal/50 or so point seasons and his contract is then up.

The Rangers should looks to add him. If they luck out and get Hughes, they should try very hard to sign him as getting a player like Hughes changes things a bit.

 

[Chaels Arms]

He actually said LA was #1 but he doesn't know how they'd do it.

I'll believe it when I see it.

OK, so let's just post exactly what he said.

"I'm not convinced Florida is his preferred destination. It might be LA but I don't know how they can do it and I think the Rangers are way up there for him too and I think the Rangers really want him. So, to me, I'm going with them until proven otherwise."

You know what's sad? We'd probably know the answer if someone from our media just asked Gorton the question. He's been pretty good at making appearances for the media. Just ask him the question - any interest in Panarin? If that's too hard just ask - are the Rangers going to be active in free agency? We'd know what's happening, even if Gorton hedged. All they do is ask vague philosophy questions with him.

 

[GAGLine]

Really bad contract by Arizona. This is more $ than Zibanejad is making! Player had little leverage. Pretty soon they will be writing a $6-7 MM contract for Keller. Can’t begin to figure this one out.

As I said, if he continues to play at a high level. It's a small sample size with Arizona, granted, but he did put up good numbers with Chicago last year. If he can be a 60-70 point player for the next 7 years, that contract will be a steal by the end. Zib makes less, yes, but he only has 3 more years on his contract.

It may end up biting them in the ass, though. We'll see. I'm more curious to see if we give Buch a long term deal. Obviously he wouldn't get 5.85 mil, but could we do something like 6 years at 4 per? Or 7 years at 4.5 per?

 

[GAGLine]

If you look at the upcoming UFA classes for three or four years, there is literally no one as good as Panarin becoming available.

Two years ago, did we know that Panarin would be available now as a UFA? No one knew that he would sign a 2 year deal then, but he did. 4 years ago, few people even knew who Panarin was. He was just some guy who Chicago signed out of the KHL. No one knew that he would be this good in the NHL. A lot can change in 4 years.

But if there isn't another free agent of his calibre any time soon, so what? That doesn't mean we HAVE to sign him just because there might not be another UFA like him in the near future. Free agency isn't the only way to acquire talent.

 

[DutchShamrock]

OK, so let's just post exactly what he said.

"I'm not convinced Florida is his preferred destination. It might be LA but I don't know how they can do it and I think the Rangers are way up there for him too and I think the Rangers really want him. So, to me, I'm going with them until proven otherwise."

You know what's sad? We'd probably know the answer if someone from our media just asked Gorton the question. He's been pretty good at making appearances for the media. Just ask him the question - any interest in Panarin? If that's too hard just ask - are the Rangers going to be active in free agency? We'd know what's happening, even if Gorton hedged. All they do is ask vague philosophy questions with him.

He "thinks" both have interest. That's not the same as ranger sources indicating they are pursuing him.

And Gorton under no circumstances can say he is interested or will try to sign Panarin prior to July 1 or he will be tampering. It's not NY media being lazy, its them knowing rules. Friedman is being lazy by recycling old ranger stereotypes of chasing big free agents.

 

[MyLoveIsBlue]

Two years ago, did we know that Panarin would be available now as a UFA? No one knew that he would sign a 2 year deal then, but he did. 4 years ago, few people even knew who Panarin was. He was just some guy who Chicago signed out of the KHL. No one knew that he would be this good in the NHL. A lot can change in 4 years.

But if there isn't another free agent of his calibre any time soon, so what? That doesn't mean we HAVE to sign him just because there might not be another UFA like him in the near future. Free agency isn't the only way to acquire talent.