Speculation: Roster Building Thread : Part XVIII ( TDL is March 7th)

[GAGLine]

X or twitter is having major issues this morning. It was down early this morning and the issues have returned again.

Yeah, Grok 3, which is also part of Elon's stuff, is not working this morning either.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Really makes me wonder how much consultation they had with Drury on the roster moves. Maybe it was minimal, but Drury has to know in his mind that these guys coming in will be playing their crap system. And maybe Drury understands this and is playing the long game. Or maybe he doesn't and is an idiot. Borgen walked in and for the most part has played like he knows the system. Soucy has been the total opposite, like he doesn't understand it at all. Vaak, I say around 65/35.

It's so crazy to me that they didn't even consider switching things up at any point this season. So many goals off of confusion, missed switchups, and guys having no idea where to be.

 

[Machinehead]

Yeah, Grok 3, which is also part of Elon's stuff, is not working this morning either.

Given his track record, it probably exploded.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Honestly a 3rd rounc draft pick doesn't bother me as much as the opportunity cost of 3.25 million.

Will that stop us from bringing in a Chychrun or real top pairing guy for 8-9 million? Can we afford that with Soucy?

Call me the Stars but I'd rather have a topheavy lineup and worry about fixing the 3rd line an 3rd pairing on the flyu than have a bunch of guys playing and getting paid over their heads, which in my opinion is a much harder problem to fix

Couldn’t agree more actually, the cap space is an even bigger issue.

 

[TGWL]

This deadline should have been about acquiring assets, canning Phil Housley, and then using those assets in the offseason to retool the backend/areas to make the team more competitive. We don't seem to hit those trades of getting players off teams not utilizing their abilities. Some of these players are stuck in roles holding them down. It would be nice to to grab a 3rd line/pair player and watch him grow into a top 6 player, or a top 4 D.

I'm not thrilled with the Soucy move. Hopefully I'm wrong, or we move him in the offseason.

 

[TGWL]

I wish they would hack some stupid tablets teams use on the bench during games.

ZIbanejad needs to watch himself pass the puck on shooting opportunities. How else is he going to learn if he doesn't watch it 100,000 times?

 

[Machinehead]

Honestly a 3rd rounc draft pick doesn't bother me as much as the opportunity cost of 3.25 million.

Will that stop us from bringing in a Chychrun or real top pairing guy for 8-9 million? Can we afford that with Soucy?

Call me the Stars but I'd rather have a topheavy lineup and worry about fixing the 3rd line an 3rd pairing on the flyu than have a bunch of guys playing and getting paid over their heads, which in my opinion is a much harder problem to fix

Filling out your bottom six or your bottom pair is actually a pretty low bar: NHL players.

And I'll be the first one to harp on non-NHL'ers getting any sort of minutes, but that's because guys who can take an NHL shift aren't that hard to find and don't cost much.

Your depth should be both effective and cheap. It really isn't hard. Three Brodzinski's and two Jones's.

 

[DanielBrassard]

What if he's better than a bottom pairing D? I would not make my entire evaluation based on a couple of charts. They are very finnicky for dmen. You have guys like Ristolainen who we were told was horrible for years and now suddenly the last three years he's good. You have guys who change teams and suddenly have a massive change in results. Let's say Brady Skjei as a quick and obvious example off the top of my head.

I don't know if he's good or bad. I don't see the harm in delaying the pick by a year (since as stated he can be traded later) to find out.

I have still yet to get an answer to the question of "If Soucy is so bad, why does he have the 8th lowest GA60 of the 120 dmen to play 5,000+ minutes since his first full year (6 years). It's not because he was great 5 years ago because he ranked 14/217 just last year (500+ mins). If you can't answer that question then I don't think it's fair to make a strong declarative statement without seeing things through. Yes, Lindgren ranks 12th but I can give you reasons as to why Lindgren would. Playing with Fox. Playing in front of Igor. I think we need to remain skeptical and get more information.

Most of the players in the top 10 there have been considered very strong defenders. Carlo, Spurgeon, Forsling, McDonagh, McAvoy, Heiskanen, DeMelo (fox 11th). Grzelyck and Mikey Anderson are 1-2 which definitely feels a bit weird but Anderson is likely a function of being stuck to Doughty (13th best). Not sure what Grzelcyk's deal is outside of being in Boston since he wasn't always with Boston but the results were great. That said, they are bad this year in Pittsburgh but they've also had atrocious goaltending.

I already gave my opinion on the GA numbers but I’ll try to give a more in depth analysis later. My opinion on Soucy isn’t changed though and I don’t think the rangers needed another defenseman of his archetype.

 

[noncents]

I'm not singling you out, but just a take on the age thing because we've gone over it with Schneider, Lafreniere, and others.

I'm pretty excited that Matt Rempe is only 22 because he's night and day a better player than he was last year.

Schneider is the same player he was day 1. Lafreniere hasn't gotten any better at anything he needed to get better at.

I get the age thing, but if the player shows no upward slope whatsoever, it becomes increasingly unlikely that they will.

i'm not singling you out - but i am certain that from a talent perspective this team is better then their record this year, and takes like this and your othmann note the other night are a great example of why:

YOUNG PLAYERS DO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE IN A VACUUM UNLESS THEY ARE PRETERNATURALLY GIFTED LIKE ADAM FOX.

The Rangers have shown us time and time and time again that they do not empower their young players to improve - to the extent that they inflict long term damage to the players career.

It's not correct to judge Othmann, K'Andre, Schneider on their performance under these staffs because they are not given the chance to grow and improve. I don't know exactly what other teams are doing that we're not - i cannot diagnose the pathology, but i see the illness. we all do. It ain't working.

The D maybe can't move the puck - but improve the system and see the analytics improve. just give these guys a f***ing chance.

Move heaven and earth for a 1LD. Move Zib back to 2C. There are good pieces here. There is a playoff team in here. I don't care if it's not a Cup-in-a-bag. Injuries happen to other teams. Get in the playoffs and you have a chance. Hard work and tough structure pay off in April.

Cuylle Miller Perreault
Panarin Zibanejad Lafreniere
Othmann Trocheck Berard
Edstrom Carrick Rempe

LD Fox
Miller Borgen
Soucy Schneider

 

[SA16]

I already gave my opinion on the GA numbers but I’ll try to give a more in depth analysis later. My opinion on Soucy isn’t changed though and I don’t think the rangers needed another defenseman of his archetype.

Well there is no answer but I think in the case where there is a huge disparity in observed results versus the models in a very large sample size we need to be skeptical in both directions.

All I can say for certain is that if someone believes Soucy is without question terrible because the models say that or if they think he is without question great because of the GA numbers that that person is extremely overconfident.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

All I want to know is why anyone should expect any other GM to be different?

You have Colorado's GM who traded for actual Ryan Lindgren
You can be Tampa who trades 1st round picks away in perpetuity and their entire draft for Tanner Jeannot
You have Toronto giving up a 1st and a good prospect for Brandon Carlo
Columbus trading a mid round pick for Luke Kunin who consistently puts up some of the worst numbers in the league
Winnipeg giving up a 2 and a 4 for a depth third pairing dman in Luke Schenn
Detroit paying to get rid of Jake Walman in the offseason
Anaheim giving up assets for the whole contract of Trouba.

These guys all do the same stuff. Why would the replacement be better? At least I know that Drury does seem capable of recognizing when he's made some mistakes and trying to fix them (Goodrow/Trouba/early season announcement" being some of them. If they want to make a change I'm fine with that too, I just don't see it really making any significant difference. It's not like we have some great way to evaluate which GMs are good and which aren't and it takes years to see their effect anyway.

Would you agree with my hypothesis that GMs targeting these guys is in part due to a deficit in the type of guys this board wants? 25 years ago it was a lot easier to get good defensemen as it was a much easier job description. Be big and slow and punch someone in the back of the head if they try to screen your goalie. Now, you're either big and lacking in skating and/or skill, or small and lacking in defense like Zac Jones. The reason we haven't had Stralman for over 10 years is only in part because of team philosophy but mostly because guys like that don't grow on trees.

 

[zlev]

Would you agree with my hypothesis that GMs targeting these guys is in part due to a deficit in the type of guys this board wants? 25 years ago it was a lot easier to get good defensemen as it was a much easier job description. Be big and slow and punch someone in the back of the head if they try to screen your goalie. Now, you're either big and lacking in skating and/or skill, or small and lacking in defense like Zac Jones. The reason we haven't had Stralman for over 10 years is only in part because of team philosophy but mostly because guys like that don't grow on trees.

Sean Walker
Matt Roy
Shayne Gostisbehere
Jacob Chychrun

all of these guys were available last offseason, all of them got pretty reasonable contracts. all of them were "free" except Chychrun who was traded for a 3rd and Nick Jensen. if we had two of these guys instead of Lindgren and Trouba to start the season i guarantee we'd be ahead of the Devils in the standings right now.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I like the defense of management from some being “every GM stinks”

Like yeah, I’d like something different than just the norm. I know that’s asking a lot

 

[Fitzy]

Filling out your bottom six or your bottom pair is actually a pretty low bar: NHL players.

And I'll be the first one to harp on non-NHL'ers getting any sort of minutes, but that's because guys who can take an NHL shift aren't that hard to find and don't cost much.

Your depth should be both effective and cheap. It really isn't hard. Three Brodzinski's and two Jones's.

Yes and no. We dressed Greg McKegg and Ben Harpur. We've dressed Lesyshyn and Stu Bickel.

There's a pretty meaningful gap between guys like Carrick/De Haan and guys like Paul Carey/Steve Kampfer

Just have to make sure you get guys who are actually players and not mid-roster AHL vets

 

[SnowblindNYR]

If you told me in a vacuum "this guy is gonna play for the Rangers" and that guy is Carson Soucy and he's gonna be the #6 or whatever, I'm not really mad at that guy.

It's every stupid thought that went into it

1) You just know he's gonna be next to Fox at some point and they'll decide they love it.

2) They just replaced Calvin de Haan who is better than Soucy because ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I know what a fanbase thinks of a player is not the be all end all but every Avs fan said De Haan sucks. Sometimes the way some players play on different teams is a different. We saw that with Borgen too. I'm hoping that this is an audition for Soucy and if he doesn't pass we upgrade him next year.

 

[NYR Viper]

Borgen has been a really solid d-man for this team. It's semantics whether he is a #4 or #5 and honestly, I don't care. The team needs more legitimate NHL d-men, not less.

 

[effen]

Missing the forest from the trees. Just because defense was bad doesn't mean it's defenseman always. Except for KAM random wanderings, those are obviously him.

It's forwards not back checking, not playing D, flying the zone, and not giving basic support. Same as it's been all year. No group of defenseman is gonna do well with this forward group.

And a serious lack of either playing through the body or just obstructing with your body and not letting people skate through. A lot of defense is not letting guys do what they want unimpeded.

Team needs a whole ass system refresh and 3 more forwards kicked to the curb (we know who).

 

[TGWL]

I know what a fanbase thinks of a player is not the be all end all but every Avs fan said De Haan sucks. Sometimes the way some players play on different teams is a different. We saw that with Borgen too. I'm hoping that this is an audition for Soucy and if he doesn't pass we upgrade him next year.

I wanted to punt de Haan to the moon during the second game.

 

[Machinehead]

Yes and no. We dressed Greg McKegg and Ben Harpur. We've dressed Lesyshyn and Stu Bickel.

There's a pretty meaningful gap between guys like Carrick/De Haan and guys like Paul Carey/Steve Kampfer

Just have to make sure you get guys who are actually players and not mid-roster AHL vets

I agree with that. I think it's pretty easy to do both.

Don't overpay for depth and also not have your depth be AHL-level.

I know what a fanbase thinks of a player is not the be all end all but every Avs fan said De Haan sucks. Sometimes the way some players play on different teams is a different. We saw that with Borgen too. I'm hoping that this is an audition for Soucy and if he doesn't pass we upgrade him next year.

If Avs fans told me Rempe is tall, I would still Google it to make sure.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Missing the forest from the trees. Just because defense was bad doesn't mean it's defenseman always. Except for KAM random wanderings, those are obviously him.

It's forwards not back checking, not playing D, flying the zone, and not giving basic support. Same as it's been all year. No group of defenseman is gonna do well with this forward group.

And a serious lack of either playing through the body or just obstructing with your body and not letting people skate through. A lot of defense is not letting guys do what they want unimpeded.

Team needs a whole ass system refresh and 3 more forwards kicked to the curb (we know who).

If Drury had any brains at all he’d fire the coaching staff now and see what these guys look like without those anchors weighing them down.

A month or so to evaluate the players before making his summer moves.

 

[Mr Mxyzptlk]

The right person probably isn't a particular name. We can't get inside anyone's head.

The right changes would be identifying exactly what the team is doing wrong and making it a mission to change the philosophy, as opposed to just a different version of what we're doing now with different players.

The next guy needs to understand that the defense needs to be significantly upgraded, not bring in a different version of Soucy instead of Soucy.

Maybe Drury will work out, but so far, he's made a lot of band-aid moves, and that's not what people are looking for.

MH -- this team needs A LOT more than just a defensive upgrade......on and off the ice.

 

[Machinehead]

MH -- this team needs A LOT more than just a defensive upgrade......on and off the ice.

Don't disagree. That's just one example.

 

[TGWL]

It's forwards not back checking, not playing D, flying the zone, and not giving basic support. Same as it's been all year. No group of defenseman is gonna do well with this forward group.

We often talk about why the defensemen are making poor decisions leaving a player alone in front of the net, or getting lost on the play, but way too often it has been because there's too many players below the circles and no help. And funny enough when they do help, they're so far below the circles that players just walk in with open lanes.

The forwards do a terrible job allowing players easy zone entries, and then the Dmen do a terrible job backing up and getting tangled up, allowing players to walk in way too far. On the dump and chase, forwards are nowhere to be found ,so our defensemen just wrap it around the boards, or get pinned and hammered. Of course, having defensemen with a quicker step to retrieve the puck and make faster decisions would help, so it's not all on the forwards.

It's just a terrible job all around by everybody and whether it's players, structure or a combination, there's no support.

 

[Fitzy]

Save a rehaul of the coaching staff or doing what the third reich did and spiking everyone's sports drink with methamphetamine I'm not sure what the solution to a 'culture problem' is

Between Spring of 2004 and Fall of 2005 we had a massive roster reshape, and that seemed to do the trick.

And yes, after last night I expected Lav to be fired. Must be waiting to the end of the year or until we're truly, deeply out of playoff contention.

Then watch us bring in Toews and Quenneville so we can really be the team everyone hates the most

 

[SnowblindNYR]

If Drury had any brains at all he’d fire the coaching staff now and see what these guys look like without those anchors weighing them down.

A month or so to evaluate the players before making his summer moves.

For some reason Mr. Cutthroat Drury is a big p***y with Laviolette. He's way past his expiration date.