Speculation: Roster Building thread - Part XVII - (TDL is March 7th)

[SnowblindNYR]

Adam Fox and Brady Tkachuk have the same amount of points this year. Just feel like that's relevant context in Fox's worst NHL season.

And Tkachuk is a -2 while Fox carrying around the corpse of Lindgren is a +6. Also, this year Ottawa is a slightly better team and Tkachuk is still a negative player.

 

[McRanger92]

Have it earlier! Not in the middle of the playoff push. It would have been just as successful.

Fair. I think they are going to expand it if anything. Have it in January during the dog days of the season. And to defend the NHL slightly, I think they assumed this was going to be a glorified exhibition. credit to the players for taking it very seriously. Juxtaposed with the sorry state of the NBA right now, a few bumps and bruises for players showing they give a f*** is a price im willing to pay and clearly they are as well.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."
- Autobiography of Mark Twain

I see a slow guy who is giving up large cushions instead of closing space. He is not knocking guys off the puck on the side boards or end boards. He often reaches with his stick instead of moving his body. He has also been giving away the puck himself. I also do not think guys view him as a threat to shoot from the point. I do not know if he is in good shape but I give him a pass on that because he had the knee injury. Now I'm a big believer in motor. I believe he can improve fast if he gets in great shape. I think all the sky looking is a bad sign. I like Fox a lot. My dad called him "his guy". I want Fox to be great but I'm concerned by what I see.

"There is only one truth, NickyFotiu's eye test analysis."

-Autograph of Mark Twain probably

 

[McRanger92]

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."
- Autobiography of Mark Twain

I see a slow guy who is giving up large cushions instead of closing space. He is not knocking guys off the puck on the side boards or end boards. He often reaches with his stick instead of moving his body. He has also been giving away the puck himself. I also do not think guys view him as a threat to shoot from the point. I do not know if he is in good shape but I give him a pass on that because he had the knee injury. Now I'm a big believer in motor. I believe he can improve fast if he gets in great shape. I think all the sky looking is a bad sign. I like Fox a lot. My dad called him "his guy". I want Fox to be great but I'm concerned by what I see.

With all due respect, the way you described Fox could be said for every player on the team outside 1 or 2 players. I agree wholeheartedly with the bolded criticism, especially the immaturity of him and guys like Zibanejad when they dont get calls going their way. And as much as the data shows he hasnt gotten any slower, he absolutely can be in better shape. This team's mentality is not peak physical condition, thats obvious.

"There is only one truth, NickyFotiu's eye test analysis."

-Autograph of Mark Twain probably

As an eye test fundamentalist, I rebuke this.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Game is 5:30 tomorrow, they play at 3:30 on Sunday. That Sunday game will be on TNT.

Ahhh ok, i must have thought they were talking about tomorrow, thanks.

 

[effen]

"There is only one truth, NickyFotiu's eye test analysis."

-Autograph of Mark Twain probably

Analytics gives us roundabout ways of telling us that effective NHL hockey comes from taking and owning space in the middle of the ice in all 3 zones.

An eye test is a much shorter route to that then QColTx% to the 5th power in a negative regression where drift towards 0.01 on alternating Tuesdays means Auston Matthews left the best player in the world open in the slot.

 

[Ruggs225]

Fair. I think they are going to expand it if anything. Have it in January during the dog days of the season. And to defend the NHL slightly, I think they assumed this was going to be a glorified exhibition. credit to the players for taking it very seriously. Juxtaposed with the sorry state of the NBA right now, a few bumps and bruises for players showing they give a f*** is a price im willing to pay and clearly they are as well.

If it was in January, i probably would have watched and given a shit. But not now. It just kills the momentum of the season and really annoyed me. So i avoided it like the plague out of spite.

Its like the NBA fake tourney they do it at a time when it doesnt matter. Right now teams are fighting for playoffs, finding their groove erc.

Now we might go back to sloppy early season hockey for a couple games maybe.

Not to also mention injury risks this late in the season. Earlier in the season mitigates this somewhat.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Analytics gives us roundabout ways of telling us that effective NHL hockey comes from taking and owning space in the middle of the ice in all 3 zones.

An eye test is a much shorter route to that then QColTx% to the 5th power in a negative regression where drift towards 0.01 on alternating Tuesdays means Auston Matthews left the best player in the world open in the slot.

Except why is YOUR eye test better than others'? You see so called experts in all sports disagree what they see with their eye test all of the time. Statistics while not perfect are far more objective.

 

[NickyFotiu]

With all due respect, the way you described Fox could be said for every player on the team outside 1 or 2 players. I agree wholeheartedly with the bolded criticism, especially the immaturity of him and guys like Zibanejad when they dont get calls going their way. And as much as the data shows he hasnt gotten any slower, he absolutely can be in better shape. This team's mentality is not peak physical condition, thats obvious.



As an eye test fundamentalist, I rebuke this.

I respect your takes but I do not know what the speed data reflects. I find it to be flawed because it only shows a small picture. It definitely is flawed if it is showing him as anything better than a slow skater. I do think if he gets in great shape that will help in a lot of ways including his own confidence. At this point in time he has not looked like a #1 Dman in recent months anymore than Mika has looked like a #1 center. Lets be honest. He was on Team USA. How many players on Team USA would you say were slower? How many would you say shoot softer? How many would you say were less physical? My hope is the tournament jump starts him. That his competitive pride says hey I was a 3rd pairing for a tournament. I want to show people I'm better than that,

 

[DanielBrassard]

Rangers 5v5 with Adam Fox on the ice: +12 goal differential
Rangers 5v5 without Adam Fox on the ice: -15 goal differential

Please trade Adam Fox so I don’t have to read all the Pejorative Slured posts anymore and the Rangers can sit in mediocrity for the foreseeable future.

Here’s data from a guy who literally has to watch every game to compile these numbers. He’s basically the same exact player.

 

[effen]

Except why is YOUR eye test better than others'? You see so called experts in all sports disagree what they see with their eye test all of the time. Statistics while not perfect are far more objective.

I don't really know what you're getting at here.

Statistics leads to some very inane conclusions like Ryan Spooner's elite p/60 rate over a small sample means he's totally not a soft fairly useless winger and is a HUGE STEAL. The Corsi hockey league era until that one year a Kings team that didn't make the playoffs had a 60% Corsi because they cranked shots from stupid places that were always getting saved. Then whoops, Corsi is a flawed stat.

I'd take a good eye test over good statistics in evaluation. Hockey's not so complicated you need to hire quants. You can if you want, and if one guy making 65k wins you 3 more games via an adjustment, it pays for itself 50x over. That's an asymmetric bet. I'd also take 3 lifelong fans who know what they're seeing over 3 quants. It's gonna yield more actionable info.

 

[RangerBoy]

Trocheck suffered a broken finger. How effective will he be playing with a broken finger? He didn't look very effective after he suffered the injury on Monday night.

 

[80shockeywasbuns]

Rangers 5v5 with Adam Fox on the ice: +12 goal differential
Rangers 5v5 without Adam Fox on the ice: -15 goal differential

Please trade Adam Fox so I don’t have to read all the Pejorative Slured posts anymore and the Rangers can sit in mediocrity for the foreseeable future.

Here’s data from a guy who literally has to watch every game to compile these numbers. He’s basically the same exact player.

His zone entry D looks a lot worse no?

 

[McRanger92]

I don't really know what you're getting at here.

Statistics leads to some very inane conclusions like Ryan Spooner's elite p/60 rate over a small sample means he's totally not a soft fairly useless winger and is a HUGE STEAL. The Corsi hockey league era until that one year a Kings team that didn't make the playoffs had a 60% Corsi because they cranked shots from stupid places that were always getting saved. Then whoops, Corsi is a flawed stat.

I'd take a good eye test over good statistics in evaluation. Hockey's not so complicated you need to hire quants. You can if you want, and if one guy making 65k wins you 3 more games via an adjustment, it pays for itself 50x over. That's an asymmetric bet. I'd also take 3 lifelong fans who know what they're seeing over 3 quants. It's gonna yield more actionable info.

Well put.

 

[NickyFotiu]

The last name we’ll mention is admittedly a longer shot to be traded, but still worth monitoring: Chris Kreider.
Let’s not forget that the longest-tenured Ranger was included in Drury’s November memo to the other 31 GMs around the league that triggered this upheaval. Those rumors have cooled down in recent months for two primary reasons: A) It's widely known that Kreider is nursing a nagging back injury; and B) He's having his worst season in years, which includes 16 goals and zero primary assists through 47 games.

 

[Siddi]

Rangers 5v5 with Adam Fox on the ice: +12 goal differential
Rangers 5v5 without Adam Fox on the ice: -15 goal differential

Please trade Adam Fox so I don’t have to read all the Pejorative Slured posts anymore and the Rangers can sit in mediocrity for the foreseeable future.

Here’s data from a guy who literally has to watch every game to compile these numbers. He’s basically the same exact player.

The troglodytes on this forum dont believe in analytics. Their eyes see and then their bias interprets what they have seen.

 

[McRanger92]

The last name we’ll mention is admittedly a longer shot to be traded, but still worth monitoring: Chris Kreider.
Let’s not forget that the longest-tenured Ranger was included in Drury’s November memo to the other 31 GMs around the league that triggered this upheaval. Those rumors have cooled down in recent months for two primary reasons: A) It's widely known that Kreider is nursing a nagging back injury; and B) He's having his worst season in years, which includes 16 goals and zero primary assists through 47 games.

Why did Kreider play over Kyle Connor if he's nursing a serious injury?

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I don't really know what you're getting at here.

Statistics leads to some very inane conclusions like Ryan Spooner's elite p/60 rate over a small sample means he's totally not a soft fairly useless winger and is a HUGE STEAL. The Corsi hockey league era until that one year a Kings team that didn't make the playoffs had a 60% Corsi because they cranked shots from stupid places that were always getting saved. Then whoops, Corsi is a flawed stat.

I'd take a good eye test over good statistics in evaluation. Hockey's not so complicated you need to hire quants. You can if you want, and if one guy making 65k wins you 3 more games via an adjustment, it pays for itself 50x over. That's an asymmetric bet. I'd also take 3 lifelong fans who know what they're seeing over 3 quants. It's gonna yield more actionable info.

First of all, you use both. Second of all, it's very convenient to take the eye test so that your "expert" opinion cannot be questioned.

 

[McRanger92]

The troglodytes on this forum dont believe in analytics. Their eyes see and then their bias interprets what they have seen.

I'm an eye test guy who sees a lot of value in analytics and use them to supplement or challenge my own beliefs. Takes like these are why no one likes the analytics zealots. I get why people dont want to further ChatGPT an emotional and intense game game like hockey.

Also arent you the guy who has been saying how amazing Mika has been this year?

 

[effen]

Why did Kreider play over Kyle Connor if he's nursing a serious injury?

Kreider shouldn't play over Kyle Connor if Kyle Connor was on doused in gasoline and set on fire.

 

[Siddi]

I'm an eye test guy who sees a lot of value in analytics and use them to supplement or challenge my own beliefs. Takes like these are why no one likes the analytics zealots. I get why people dont want to further ChatGPT an emotional and intense game game like hockey.

Also arent you the guy who has been saying how amazing Mika has been this year?

Not amazing but the best player, yes.

 

[80shockeywasbuns]

Id also take 3 lifelong fans

hope you like Fox for futures

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Have it earlier! Not in the middle of the playoff push. It would have been just as successful.

JimMora.mp4

 

[DanielBrassard]

His zone entry D looks a lot worse no?

That’s the one area he’s faltered a bit but I think that actually can be explained by the knee injury and his inability to train in the offseason. It would make sense he would have to play slightly more conservatively because it’s harder to pivot and make those quick movements to step up at the blue line and break plays up. But even so he’s still an elite defenseman in the league.

 

[McRanger92]

Here's another take I have after watching the Four Nations. It was another Diamond Hands Drury moment when he couldnt complete the Guentzel deal. He's a phenomenal player and exactly what we could use. If he is with us in the Florida series and finishes on 2-3 chances we couldnt cash in on, we easily win that series with how out of his mind Igor was playing. probably beat Canes in 4 or 5 as well.