Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XVI

[Edge]

Again, if the goal is to simply repeat what was done in the past, then why not sign Hayes long term? I’m hoping the goal is more than that. So far, the approach has been to not repeat prior mistakes. Signing Hayes long-term just feels like the Girardi/Staal contracts all over again. (So does the Skjei contract for that matter.). I know there are differences, but, these are the type of contracts that box a franchise in from making the extra moves needed to put a team over the top. If you’re doing your job correctly, you have a couple of Hayes/Skjei types ready to move in when the prior ones become to expensive. You give the big money to the players you can’t replace from within.

In my most direct, straight-to-the point moments, I find myself thinking that if the Rangers can't replace Hayes over the next few years with one of Howden, Chytil, Andersson, or whoever they might take in 2019 or 2020, we're already in big trouble.

Likewise, if the team's greater long-term success comes down to which second line center we prefer, knowing that there are potential pros and cons to each, we're in the same danger zone.

If Kevin Hayes is that much of a difference maker between this whole endeavor working or not working, may Angels and ministers of grace defend us.

 

[True Blue]

but yeah I just don't know.

None of us do. That 's what makes this so hard to get a good handle on. You have a kid that is will not be 27 until next year, playing fantastic two-way hockey. On a level that could have him as the starting 2nd line center on virtually any other team. We all agree that the Rangers are rebuilding and they need the spots and the salary cap room and the assets that he brings back and that in a year or two, he will not be playing at such a level. Buuuuuut.........if we believe that Quinn has helped Kreider take his game to a level that most around here have written off as possible, then why can't he do the same for Hayes? Maybe he has gotten through to Hayes in a way that no other coach has? What if?

Again, I am with you, jas and Edge. I believe that Gorton trades him and brings back quite a haul. However, you like I have been a Rangers fan for a long time. Would it shock you that after he is traded, he continues to blossom on someone else's team? We have seen that movie before.

 

[True Blue]

I don’t agree it's difficult to replace Hayes. I would present six Eastern Conference teams that have better 2C s than Hayes. Is the goal here to just have a repeat of the last run, or do we want to actually win a Cup or two? If it’s the former, sure sign Hayes to the long term deal. But, then, what was the point of this whole process we’re going through?

I understand the sentiment but need to play devil's advocate here. At his current level of play, he can be a 2nd line center on virtually any team. Yes, you listed 6 Eastern teams that have it better. But you know as well as I, that such players are not easy to draft. There is just not that many of them. What you are describing, if you want "better" is virtually a scenario where you have two legit #1 centers and that allows you to man the second line with a top line player. The actual odds are probably against that. In fact, the odds are probably against you finding someone who will play at the level that hayes is currently exhibiting. Maybe you have a senario with a 1A/1B centers like they had with Brass & Stepan and get the high end wings in the draft? Add a Boldy to a Kravstov and keep Chytil as a wing and look at that game breaking ability? Just food for thought.

Again, I probably fall on your side and take the point to trade him and bring back a haul. Like you and Edge, I find myself not willing to trust what he will be in a few years. But, as I stated, we are Rangers fans. And if we see him hoisting a Cup while we spend the next 5 years trying to replace him.....well, it would sting and would not a complete surprise.

 

[kovazub94]

what exactly is wrong with this ?

mika
hayes
howden
andersson/strome

if you add kravtsov and panarin plus buchnevich and chytl stay ?

and you subtract zucc and lets say smith and shatty with some retention? god forbid staal plays good enough to have someone take a flier with 50% retained

that middle is good enough to win.

this narrative that hayes isnt good enough is trash. im not saying dont move him but to say hes not good enough is disingenuous at best.

the return better be good though

Two things - first, this center group could be projected to be BARELY good enough to win. They would probably be able to hand on with centers of true contenders but certainly not dominate. IMHO the group is only incrementally better than Stepan - Brassard - Richards and some would even try to argue this. Second, when Howden (or Chytil) overtakes Hayes - what are going to do with $6.+ million 3rd line center with NMC? Other than RB there's probably noone here who'd discount what Hayes has become. Being in favor of trading Hayes has really nothing with him but the context of how he'd fit into this team's future structure AND the return that he should bring via a trade.

 

[Edge]

None of us do. That 's what makes this so hard to get a good handle on. You have a kid that is will not be 27 until next year, playing fantastic two-way hockey. On a level that could have him as the starting 2nd line center on virtually any other team. We all agree that the Rangers are rebuilding and they need the spots and the salary cap room and the assets that he brings back and that in a year or two, he will not be playing at such a level. Buuuuuut.........if we believe that Quinn has helped Kreider take his game to a level that most around here have written off as possible, then why can't he do the same for Hayes? Maybe he has gotten through to Hayes in a way that no other coach has? What if?

Again, I am with you, jas and Edge. I believe that Gorton trades him and brings back quite a haul. However, you like I have been a Rangers fan for a long time. Would it shock you that after he is traded, he continues to blossom on someone else's team? We have seen that movie before.

And that's certainly a possibility and part of the conundrum that is Hayes.

There are moments you see flashes and you wonder, just how good can this guy be?

This year he is on pace for 56 points, but he's also never hit 50 before. He's also actually on pace for the second lowest goal total of his career at the moment.

At the end of the day, what's a reasonable expectation for Hayes on this roster? Is it 60 points? 65? 70?

If you think he blossoms into the 65-70 range, it becomes a much more difficult concept. Especially if you think Zibanejad is in that 65-70 point range as well.

But what if it's more like 55-60, with very good two-way play. Well, that falls right back into the "been there, done that" routine. Only we'll have switched Stepan and Brassard for Zibanejad and Hayes. But instead of two guys getting about 60 point each, we'd have one at 65 and one at 55.

And when we start getting closer to that 55 range, that goes back to the whole concept of being in trouble if not one of Chytil, Andersson, Howden or (potential) 2019/2020 pick isn't capable of both sticking at center and scoring at that pace.

 

[Edge]

Two things - first, this center group could be projected to be BARELY good enough to win. They would probably be able to hand on with centers of true contenders but certainly not dominate. IMHO the group is only incrementally better than Stepan - Brassard - Richards and some would even try to argue this. Second, when Howden (or Chytil) overtakes Hayes - what are going to do with $6.+ million 3rd line center with NMC? Other than RB there's probably noone here who'd discount what Hayes has become. Being in favor of trading Hayes has really nothing with him but the context of how he'd fit into this team's future structure AND the return that he should bring via a trade.

That NMC keeps getting overlooked and we simply can't do that.

It will not a wispy clause, it will be pretty significant.

Why?

Because Hayes will be able to demand that on the open market, and because he knows that if he signs with the Rangers an eventual trade is still a distinct possibility.

He might give a cash discount if he wants to remain with the Rangers, but he is not giving a discount AND accepting a lesser movement clause.

Kevin Hayes is 8 months away from choosing his own destiny and being compensated handsomely for it. This isn't going to be a 4 year deal, without a movement clause, at $5 million per, no matter how much he loves being a Ranger.

 

[kovazub94]

That NMC keeps getting overlooked and we simply can't do that.

It will not a wispy clause, it will be pretty significant.

Why?

Because Hayes will be able to demand that on the open market, and because he knows that if he signs with the Rangers an eventual trade is still a distinct possibility.

He might give a cash discount if he wants to remain with the Rangers, but he is not giving a discount AND accepting a lesser movement clause.

Kevin Hayes is 8 months away from choosing his own destiny and being compensated handsomely for it. This isn't going to be a 4 year deal, without a movement clause, at $5 million per, no matter how much he loves being a Ranger.

Yup, he can also see the writing on the wall (not to mention a pretty fresh Stepan to Arizona example) and you can bet he'd want to have a control over where he plays two years down the road.

 

[Kovalev27]

to me this is very simple. if you give hayes big money and term we don't have cap space for panarin. we'll be going basically with what we have and hoping the current kids become good enough to win and HOPEFULLY kravstov at least is a star.

so really its hayes vs a shot at panarin. not to mention moving hayes now probably gives you a better shot at a better draft pick this summer. you gotta trade him to free up money for panarin.

 

[DanielBrassard]

to me this is very simple. if you give hayes big money and term we don't have cap space for panarin. we'll be going basically with what we have and hoping the current kids become good enough to win and HOPEFULLY kravstov at least is a star.

so really its hayes vs a shot at panarin. not to mention moving hayes now probably gives you a better shot at a better draft pick this summer. you gotta trade him to free up money for panarin.

Moving Hayes might be for the best, but it's not exactly true that it would be between him and Panarin. Rangers could make some other moves, buying out Staal/Smith and trading Namestnikov which would open up the space to re-sign him

 

[Tawnos]

I like Hayes. I like him a lot. He’s just not a special player. At this stage of things, we don’t have room for non-special players on long-term contracts that take them into their 30s. If it comes to contending time, and a Hayes level player is our missing piece, then we will find one via trade or UFA. His non-specialness, combined with his age and contract status makes him the definition of expendable asset.

Kreider is a special player.. and maybe a unique player in the league (remember, unique means one of a kind. Something can’t be more unique or very unique). Zibanejad is a special player. Hayes is not.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Maybe this is unpopular but I'm not that impressed with Hayes. But I was also never that down on Hayes in the past. He strikes me as a very consistent player. We can all agree that his second season was his worst, the eye test and stats back that up. But by and large he brings the same level of play every year.

It makes sense that his experience has been paying off with his defensive game, while his stats are fairly level because his skill level plateaued.

So I'm pretty confident in predicting his future play as producing 50ish points with responsible play. Expecting anything more is wishful thinking and a recipe for disappointment.

So Gorton's decision comes down to 1) paying north of $6m times 6 years with a no move clause or 2) getting out of that contract commitment with a handsome return. There are potential replacements in the organization so the drawbacks of choice 2 are mitigated.

The Staal/Girardi comparison is actually astute. It had repercussions that we are still feeling obviously. Sather felt forced because of the cup aspirations, but those choices led to Strahlman going, then Boyle coming in. The Girardi buyout. Probably a Staal buyout.

This team is bound by different immediate goals. We want to reload and turn our veteran talent into multiple future assets. Changing course here could be damaging down the road.

 

[McRanger]

Man, it's that last part that really has me torn. That lingering doubt that Hayes is as good as he is playing right now and what kind of contract value you put on that.

I have similar feelings to what @jas has expressed a few times. Let's assume they look Hayes up long term, I'm not really sure that a lineup with Zibanejad and Hayes down the middle gets them close to their end-game. I feel like it would inevitably fall into the "good, but not good enough" category, and would also require the team to move one or both of Chytil and Andersson to the wings. The latter might happen anyway, but I just don't think Hayes is a guy I move that many people around accommodate. His presence would, to varying degrees, have a significant impact on 3 of our top 5 prospects.

Hayes, even right now, looks like a very good second line center. Does he look like an great or an elite second line center on a top team? I'm less certain about that. But that's probably what his next contract will look like.

Yes, rolling the dice and hoping for one of Chytil, Andersson or Howden to be as good of a second line center is a risk --- but I don't find it to be as big of a risk as asking them to replace a 70 point Kevin Hayes as our first line center. To some extent, I feel like we're almost treating closer to the latter.

I guess if I was being very direct, my stance would be that I don't love Kevin Hayes quite as much as some, or find him to be as replaceable as some others might.

With or without Kevin Hayes, I tend to see the same challenge moving forward --- deciding whether we have a legit first line center, or varying degrees of second line centers ranging from elite to merely good. Right now, that's what I see --- a plethora of second like centers, either real or potentially.

At best, Kevin Hayes fits into the higher end of that equation. But it keeps coming back to cost and long-term needs, some of which the Rangers could at least potentially move toward solving with acquiring more assets and chips to play poker with.

I keep thinking that Kevin Hayes feels like the "security blanket" option that doesn't look nearly as sexy three years from now when the fear of the boogeyman and the unknown is lurking behind every decision and discussion.

A lot of interesting stuff but let me just focus on this one question, since I think it is important.

I do think Hayes (or at least the current iteration of Kevin Hayes) is close to an elite second line center... but only at even strength. He'll put up points at ES (and prevent goals as well) but he has never struck me as a player who is going to produce on the PP unless maybe if he is force fed minutes on a great unit.

And in the end that knocks both his usefulness and value down a notch.

For comparison since the start of the 17-18 season, Hayes has 83 ES points, which marks him 38th for centers. (keep in mind this is just people labeled "centers", so there are likely players that should and shouldn't be on the list.) He's tied with Krejci with 83 and just behind guys like Schenn (86) and Kadri (89) and just ahead of guys like Horvat (82) O'Reilly (80) and Stepan (79). As far as I can tell there is no great discrepancy in games played or TOI.

So how much does putting up 20-30 less points on the PP (say ~15 instead of ~35) take a whack into his value? Probably a solid amount. If a guy like O'Reilly gets ~8.5 would that leave Hayes ~6.5? Less? Even strength is usually like 75% of a players ice time, but you can't simply disregard paying a forward 6m+ per to not be on your first PP unit. Tough call.

Hayes is simultaneously a hard player to both gauge or trust.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I like Hayes. I like him a lot. He’s just not a special player. At this stage of things, we don’t have room for non-special players on long-term contracts that take them into their 30s. If it comes to contending time, and a Hayes level player is our missing piece, then we will find one via trade or UFA. His non-specialness, combined with his age and contract status makes him the definition of expendable asset.

Kreider is a special player.. and maybe a unique player in the league (remember, unique means one of a kind. Something can’t be more unique or very unique). Zibanejad is a special player. Hayes is not.

I cannot like this post enough, as it pretty much echoes what I’ve saying.

 

[Ghost of jas]

And Buchnevich has IT to join this group as far as the team's pieces already in place concerned.

It’s funny, but Buchnevich slipped my mind. I kind of feel he like he’s just below that game-breaker level right now.

 

[Trxjw]

I like Hayes. I like him a lot. He’s just not a special player. At this stage of things, we don’t have room for non-special players on long-term contracts that take them into their 30s. If it comes to contending time, and a Hayes level player is our missing piece, then we will find one via trade or UFA. His non-specialness, combined with his age and contract status makes him the definition of expendable asset.

Kreider is a special player.. and maybe a unique player in the league (remember, unique means one of a kind. Something can’t be more unique or very unique). Zibanejad is a special player. Hayes is not.

This is a very succinct way to put it. I think beyond the role he's serving now as a buffer between now and the future of this franchise, his true value may lie in giving us an opportunity to find that special player. Meaning if he returns us a premium prospect with more upside and/or a first round pick that gives us another chance to find that special player.

I feel that a lot of the "can't trade Hayes" sentiment as of late has to do with the fear of missing out and the fear of risk. Folks see a lot of uncertainty on the roster, then they see a guy like Hayes who is playing perhaps the best hockey of his career, and I can understand the trepidation about moving on from him. A first round pick is a mystery box, but we're in mystery box mode. We need to be taking those chances while we can afford to take them.

 

[Ghost of jas]

This is a very succinct way to put it. I think beyond the role he's serving now as a buffer between now and the future of this franchise, his true value may lie in giving us an opportunity to find that special player. Meaning if he returns us a premium prospect with more upside and/or a first round pick that gives us another chance to find that special player.

I feel that a lot of the "can't trade Hayes" sentiment as of late has to do with the fear of missing out and the fear of risk. Folks see a lot of uncertainty on the roster, then they see a guy like Hayes who is playing perhaps the best hockey of his career, and I can understand the trepidation about moving on from him. A first round pick is a mystery box, but we're in mystery box mode. We need to be taking those chances while we can afford to take them.

I’m getting the sense that you, @Edge and I should just go ahead and form our own mutual admiration society.

 

[redwhiteandblue]

I like Hayes. I like him a lot. He’s just not a special player. At this stage of things, we don’t have room for non-special players on long-term contracts that take them into their 30s. If it comes to contending time, and a Hayes level player is our missing piece, then we will find one via trade or UFA. His non-specialness, combined with his age and contract status makes him the definition of expendable asset.

Kreider is a special player.. and maybe a unique player in the league (remember, unique means one of a kind. Something can’t be more unique or very unique). Zibanejad is a special player. Hayes is not.

What I’m starting to wonder is if Hayes really wants to be here can they explore a 5/6 year deal with a NMC in the last 2/3 and look to move him before the full NMC kicks in ala Stepan? If they could would you do that to insulate the youth for 2-3 years and keep the team competitive as it is now? You’d still have Zucc, McQuaid and potentially Smith you could realistically move for more draft picks.

I wonder if possible they would do that.

Maybe this is unpopular but I'm not that impressed with Hayes. But I was also never that down on Hayes in the past. He strikes me as a very consistent player. We can all agree that his second season was his worst, the eye test and stats back that up. But by and large he brings the same level of play every year.

It makes sense that his experience has been paying off with his defensive game, while his stats are fairly level because his skill level plateaued.

So I'm pretty confident in predicting his future play as producing 50ish points with responsible play. Expecting anything more is wishful thinking and a recipe for disappointment.

So Gorton's decision comes down to 1) paying north of $6m times 6 years with a no move clause or 2) getting out of that contract commitment with a handsome return. There are potential replacements in the organization so the drawbacks of choice 2 are mitigated.

The Staal/Girardi comparison is actually astute. It had repercussions that we are still feeling obviously. Sather felt forced because of the cup aspirations, but those choices led to Strahlman going, then Boyle coming in. The Girardi buyout. Probably a Staal buyout.

This team is bound by different immediate goals. We want to reload and turn our veteran talent into multiple future assets. Changing course here could be damaging down the road.

I like a lot of this post but I don’t agree it’s an astute comparison to Staal/Girardi. The most frustrating part of those guys was there was a perfect opportunity to move on no-strings-attached. When both contracts were ending it was obvious they were poor investments. Instead of letting them go and find a pay day they dug themselves a hole with 2 very bad contracts.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Hayes’ fate was sealed when they only agreed to the one-year extension. As much as I hate it, it’s up to Gorton to make sure the value for Hayes doesn’t yield only a typical deadline rental return. I assume that means a contract extension is inherent to the deal, but it’ll be tougher to swing a deal like that.

The real wild card is what the hell do we do with Kreider? The dude is a freak this season, still has term and a cheap cap hit, and would probably return a boatload in a trade. That’s the one that really makes me wonder which direction Gorton is heading.

 

[Trxjw]

I’m getting the sense that you, @Edge and I should just go ahead and form our own mutual admiration society.

I dig it.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Hayes’ fate was sealed when they only agreed to the one-year extension. As much as I hate it, it’s up to Gorton to make sure the value for Hayes doesn’t yield only a typical deadline rental return. I assume that means a contract extension is inherent to the deal, but it’ll be tougher to swing a deal like that.

The real wild card is what the hell do we do with Kreider? The dude is a freak this season, still has term and a cheap cap hit, and would probably return a boatload in a trade. That’s the one that really makes me wonder which direction Gorton is heading.

Offer Kreider the JVR contract and consider yourself fortunate if he accepts it.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Hayes’ fate was sealed when they only agreed to the one-year extension. As much as I hate it, it’s up to Gorton to make sure the value for Hayes doesn’t yield only a typical deadline rental return. I assume that means a contract extension is inherent to the deal, but it’ll be tougher to swing a deal like that.

The real wild card is what the hell do we do with Kreider? The dude is a freak this season, still has term and a cheap cap hit, and would probably return a boatload in a trade. That’s the one that really makes me wonder which direction Gorton is heading.

He's an easy keep for me unless someone wants to get hella stupid (Im talking Makar+Kaut+Ott's 2019 stupid.)

Of the Guys on the roster right now, he's in the group of players who I'd deem pretty close to untouchable.

For me, the core guys (who are on the NHL roster) are Chytil, Andersson, Howden, Zibanejad and Kreider. I like Fast too, but only as a bottom sixer. Everyone else can go, except maybe Buchnevich and thats mostly because I really want to see what he can do here before shipping him off.

I'd throw DeAngelo into that group as well, but management clearly views Pionk as the superior player for whatever reason. I'm pretty sure they view Skjei as a foundational piece too and I like him, but I wouldn't let him get in the way of a big deal.

 

[Ghost of jas]

He's an easy keep for me unless someone wants to get hella stupid (Im talking Makar+Kaut+Ott's 2019 stupid.)

Of the Guys on the roster right now, he's in the group of players who I'd deem pretty close to untouchable.

For me, the core guys (who are on the NHL roster) are Chytil, Andersson, Howden, Zibanejad and Kreider. I like Fast too, but only as a bottom sixer. Everyone else can go, except maybe Buchnevich and thats mostly because I really want to see what he can do here before shipping him off.

I'd throw DeAngelo into that group as well, but management clearly views Pionk as the superior player for whatever reason. I'm pretty sure they view Skjei as a foundational piece too and I like him, but I wouldn't let him get in the way of a big deal.

You can join the mutual admiration society, too.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

You can join the mutual admiration society, too.

I am the mutual admiration society.

 

[Trxjw]

Hayes’ fate was sealed when they only agreed to the one-year extension. As much as I hate it, it’s up to Gorton to make sure the value for Hayes doesn’t yield only a typical deadline rental return. I assume that means a contract extension is inherent to the deal, but it’ll be tougher to swing a deal like that.

The real wild card is what the hell do we do with Kreider? The dude is a freak this season, still has term and a cheap cap hit, and would probably return a boatload in a trade. That’s the one that really makes me wonder which direction Gorton is heading.

I'll be a bit surprised if Hayes goes as a rental. If he does, I would think there would be a conditional pick or two attached. There will be suitors for both price points. The tricky part is getting Hayes to forego the open market in July to sign with a team in January.

For me, Kreider is a guy I'm confident in signing and keeping around unless a team steps up and makes me an offer I can't refuse. He's a great player and seems to be taking his game to another level this season. He and Zibanejad have truly embraced their roles here and are thriving. There's a point at which a trade can be detrimental to a rebuilding team, even if the assets coming back are excellent. That's where Gorton has to be careful. Trading Kreider could net us some premium pieces but it could also rock the boat so much that it throws it off course.

Guys like Hayes and Zucc will sting but they won't have the ripple effects of dealing a Kreider or Zibby. At least that's the impression I get from the outside.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I am the mutual admiration society.

Everything you said in that post echoes my view, right down to ADA, Pionk and Skjei, although I wonder if a playoff contender comes calling and offers up something substantial, would Gorton move Fast?