Speculation: Roster Building Thread : Part XVI (Playoffs or Retool?)

[HatTrick Swayze]

If he's a 70 point player for 5 years, it's still a no brainer. The odds of this pick becoming the platonic ideal of what people want is nonexistent unless the Rangers rip it down to the studs and take for a top 3 pick. I dont have to tell you that's not happening.

I hear your point and it's valid, but the irony posting this when Miller himself was an NYR 15th overall pick is too massive to ignore.

Drafting him 15th, and paying another pick in the 10-15th range to have him be an NYR for only the least productive beginning & ending parts of his career is just so inefficient its crazy.

 

[NYR Viper]

For the record, JT Miller @ $8m is not what I would consider a 'bad' deal. Let's take a deeper dive:

23-24 - Age 30
103 points in 81 games
56.3% FO
217 hits

24-25 - Age 31
31 points in 35 games
58.6% FO
78 hits

Lets put this in perspective. Vincent Trochek, this season, is at ~7.4% cap allocation. ($5.625m of $88m cap).

The projections for the cap also only used 5% which is likely to be too low based on what we are hearing recently as well. SO unless we think JT Miller is going to fall off a cliff production wise, even if he was scoring 50-60 points towards the end of his deal, I'd consider him a very effective 2C at that price tag.

His cap hit, to me, is really manageable.

 

[McRanger92]

I hear your point and it's valid, but the irony posting this when Miller himself was an NYR 15th overall pick is too massive to ignore.

Drafting him 15th, and paying another pick in the 10-15th range to have him be an NYR for only the least productive beginning & ending parts of his career is just so inefficient its crazy.

That was 15 years ago. Whether or not we should have traded him at the outset of the rebuild is a completely different discussion than trading for him now. It's indisputable that he fits a large team need. If trading the pick comes back to bite us we can discuss in 2040 lol

 

[jerseyjinx94]

The 15th overall pick won’t be in the lineup until 2028 or 2029. Look at Othmann. Picked in 2021 and he hasn’t cracked the roster yet.

I’m a big believer in keeping 1sts and by and large Drury has done that. But if he feels that miller is the best version of a Tkachuk type he can get and he can do that for the 15th pick, Chytil and Lindgren then he has to do it. It’s a no brainer to me

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

The 15th overall pick won’t be in the lineup until 2028 or 2029. Look at Othmann. Picked in 2021 and he hasn’t cracked the roster yet.

I’m a big believer in keeping 1sts and by and large Drury has done that. But if he feels that miller is the best version of a Tkachuk type he can get and he can do that for the 15th pick, Chytil and Lindgren then he has to do it. It’s a no brainer to me

It's not always a sure thing though.

Perreault was taken at 23 OA and looks primed to break into the league next year. On a weaker team like San Jose he probably would have done it this year.

We can't assume that it's going to be the 15th pick either and thats the hold up. This team basically shat their pants because they heard that Trouba and Kreider were on the block. They're pretty much a lock to go on a slide again because thats what happens in hockey and they literally cannot afford another one.

You don't want to give up a top 8-10 pick or higher for a soon to be 32 year old player. Those guys typically end up contributing even sooner.

 

[B17 Apricots]

For the record, JT Miller @ $8m is not what I would consider a 'bad' deal. Let's take a deeper dive:

23-24 - Age 30
103 points in 81 games
56.3% FO
217 hits

24-25 - Age 31
31 points in 35 games
58.6% FO
78 hits

View attachment 964699

Lets put this in perspective. Vincent Trochek, this season, is at ~7.4% cap allocation. ($5.625m of $88m cap).

The projections for the cap also only used 5% which is likely to be too low based on what we are hearing recently as well. SO unless we think JT Miller is going to fall off a cliff production wise, even if he was scoring 50-60 points towards the end of his deal, I'd consider him a very effective 2C at that price tag.

His cap hit, to me, is really manageable.

I think if you make this trade, you fully realize he could crash out in a few years. He's about to turn 32, I understand the risk there for sure. I think you made a post about some other physical players that have aged well. It's a possibility. And really if we were talking about trading away a bunch of prime pieces I wouldn't even consider it worthy of talking about. The rumors we're hearing about amount to something around a 1st round pick and a bunch of spare parts. That will not kill us. If we're recouping more picks in further trades than what's the issue?

Let's throw out a hypothetical. Let's say Drury gets antsy and makes the Miller trade now. You're a bubble team but you miss the playoffs. Your pick is 14th overall. Hagens is gone. Misa is gone. Desnoyers is gone. You miss out on the top group. Now what? Like I keep saying... I love the picks and prospects. Love following it. But who exactly are you taking in that spot now? And if Drury moves Kreider for a pick in the mid/late 20s... you're moving back ~10 or so spots. You've already missed the top group at this point. I don't see much of an issue.

 

[NYR Viper]

I think if you make this trade, you fully realize he could crash out in a few years. He's about to turn 32, I understand the risk there for sure. I think you made a post about some other physical players that have aged well. It's a possibility. And really if we were talking about trading away a bunch of prime pieces I wouldn't even consider it worthy of talking about. The rumors we're hearing about amount to something around a 1st round pick and a bunch of spare parts. That will not kill us. If we're recouping more picks in further trades than what's the issue?

Let's throw out a hypothetical. Let's say Drury gets antsy and makes the Miller trade now. You're a bubble team but you miss the playoffs. Your pick is 14th overall. Hagens is gone. Misa is gone. Desnoyers is gone. You miss out on the top group. Now what? Like I keep saying... I love the picks and prospects. Love following it. But who exactly are you taking in that spot now? And if Drury moves Kreider for a pick in the mid/late 20s... you're moving back ~10 or so spots. You've already missed the top group at this point. I don't see much of an issue.

I'm all for a top-12 protected 1st going in the deal, if it's really Chytil + Lindgren + protected 1st

But if that happens, I better see Smith, Vesey and maybe even Kreider traded.

Also if Lindgren is included, I want Desharnais back and I'm hanging on to Sykora if I can help it

 

[Bob Richards]

It’s probably not fair because not all guys are the same, but the seemingly overnight mega decline of Zibanejad and Kreider has made me way more gun shy about adding another soon-to-be 32 year old with a bajillion years left on his contract.

It’s wild too because I totally get the pro-miller trade guys in this thread. The rumored cost is cheap. I’d probably pound the table for it in a better circumstance.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

It’s probably not fair because not all guys are the same, but the seemingly overnight mega decline of Zibanejad and Kreider has made me way more gun shy about adding another soon-to-be 32 year old with a bajillion years left on his contract.

It’s wild too because I totally get the pro-miller trade guys in this thread. The rumored cost is cheap. I’d probably pound the table for it in a better circumstance.

Yeah a year ago this would be a no brainer.

Especially since it would have forced them to replace Lindgren.

 

[TGWL]

I'm all for a top-12 protected 1st going in the deal, if it's really Chytil + Lindgren + protected 1st

But if that happens, I better see Smith, Vesey and maybe even Kreider traded.

Also if Lindgren is included, I want Desharnais back and I'm hanging on to Sykora if I can help it

I am not ok with it an unprotected 2026 is given up should we finish with a #12 pick. I imagine that's part of the issue, we don't want to give up that pick with Gavin and our lackluster group potentially bottoming out. You have to give to get, but the core here is fading away, and even if you get Miller, we're losing guys like Panarin and with Zibanejad/Kreider potentially trending down even more, it can end up back firing.

 

[Rongomania]

JT miller has Brad Richards part 2 written all over him. Except a shittier presence in the room.

Cool.

 

[McRanger92]

At this point I just want JT on the team so we can stop with the f***ing hugs and kisses walking off the ice after every game. Enough.

 

[TGWL]

JT miller has Brad Richards part 2 written all over him. Except a shittier presence in the room.

Cool.

And much better legs.

 

[McRanger92]

And much better legs.

I didn't dislike Brad as a Ranger. Good leader and always showed up in the playoffs. Everyone tuned Torts out in 2013.

 

[Rongomania]

And much better legs.

Give it a year. 33 before next playoffs. Major pass.

 

[SA16]

I'm all for a top-12 protected 1st going in the deal, if it's really Chytil + Lindgren + protected 1st

But if that happens, I better see Smith, Vesey and maybe even Kreider traded.

Also if Lindgren is included, I want Desharnais back and I'm hanging on to Sykora if I can help it

I'd actually rather protect less. Like top 3-5 only. If we get pick 12 I'd rather send that to them than take the risk of something happening next year and giving up a lottery pick.

 

[B17 Apricots]

I'm all for a top-12 protected 1st going in the deal, if it's really Chytil + Lindgren + protected 1st

But if that happens, I better see Smith, Vesey and maybe even Kreider traded.

Also if Lindgren is included, I want Desharnais back and I'm hanging on to Sykora if I can help it

If Drury is persistent in getting a deal done this season then top 10 protected needs to be something Drury is steadfast on. Conditions push it to 2026 if it lands in the top 10. Largely mitigates the risk on our end. That should make or break the deal. But like I said it's really a deal I'd rather see in the summer after the draft. We can make our own pick wherever it may land. I'm long past caring about this particular season.

There seems like there's going to be a lot of movement this summer. We'll be going into next year with 2 new top 4 defenders. Kakko is gone. Trouba is gone. Maybe a new back up goalie. Kreider may be gone. We'll see if anything happens with Mika, Chytil, etc... the core may look very, very different. I'd rather this JTM move happen over the summer so all the dust can settle and everyone can start over fresh for the next season with a new core.

 

[mike14]

If Drury is persistent in getting a deal done this season then top 10 protected needs to be something Drury is steadfast on. Conditions push it to 2026 if it lands in the top 10. Largely mitigates the risk on our end. That should make or break the deal. But like I said it's really a deal I'd rather see in the summer after the draft. We can make our own pick wherever it may land. I'm long past caring about this particular season.

There seems like there's going to be a lot of movement this summer. We'll be going into next year with 2 new top 4 defenders. Kakko is gone. Trouba is gone. Maybe a new back up goalie. Kreider may be gone. We'll see if anything happens with Mika, Chytil, etc... the core may look very, very different. I'd rather this JTM move happen over the summer so all the dust can settle and everyone can start over fresh for the next season with a new core.

Alternative take; new core and new dust next season means we waste the first 20 games with every finding their feet and working out which lines/combos work.
Get the trade done this year and start setting the conditions and combos so we can hit the ground running next season

 

[bernmeister]

Of course he'll go to Carolina. Maybe we can get another Wennberg trade and see him do f*** all. I'm conflicted about Miller but Drury doesn't do any trades of any kind of significance. I guess Tarasenko and Kane were the two exceptions.

Good and actual God no, not another stupid rental which sacrifices young assets at the altar of the false deity win now

 

[GAGLine]

For the record, JT Miller @ $8m is not what I would consider a 'bad' deal. Let's take a deeper dive:

23-24 - Age 30
103 points in 81 games
56.3% FO
217 hits

24-25 - Age 31
31 points in 35 games
58.6% FO
78 hits

View attachment 964699

Lets put this in perspective. Vincent Trochek, this season, is at ~7.4% cap allocation. ($5.625m of $88m cap).

The projections for the cap also only used 5% which is likely to be too low based on what we are hearing recently as well. SO unless we think JT Miller is going to fall off a cliff production wise, even if he was scoring 50-60 points towards the end of his deal, I'd consider him a very effective 2C at that price tag.

His cap hit, to me, is really manageable.

Can you tell me what he will do as a Ranger from age 32-37? Because those are the years I really care about.

 

[IDvsEGO]

I'd actually rather protect less. Like top 3-5 only. If we get pick 12 I'd rather send that to them than take the risk of something happening next year and giving up a lottery pick.

if we’re that mid this year, we might be worse next year.

 

[bernmeister]

I see yet again @FoxysExpensiveNYDigs did an empty ha ha with zero substantiation.
This is like practically all my posts, each and every one, almost.

He is welcome to that as a matter of his right to his opinion.
That said, continuously making digs without any basis is not a good look, and should be regarded as the meritless empty shade it presents itself to be.

I will not bend, buckle and break because of anyone's taunts.
Those who give same have to live with 'you shall reap what you sow'.

 

[bhamill]

If the Rangers lose 3/4 the next week, the leverage shifts to Vancouver. We arent in a position of strength with our record like we have making in-season trades the last few years. Drury has tried this waiting game before and struck out.

Does the leverage really shift though? If we lose 3/4 it makes it less likely this team is going anywhere and less urgent that we make any move before the TDL... Meanwhile, VAN has the immediate problem they need to sort out... At least that's how I see it.

 

[NYR Viper]

Can you tell me what he will do as a Ranger from age 32-37? Because those are the years I really care about.

Of course not, but you also can't tell me what Lafreniere will do in those seasons. Or any player from any team anywhere. You can project and look around at other examples of players in this similar position and see what the opportunity cost is to see if it makes sense. I brought up guys like Giroux, Benn, Kopitar, Stamkos as guys who are older but still performing at very high levels. You could also include guys like Tavares, Marchand, Crosby, Ovechkin, Zuccarello, Pavelski (before he retired). Guys who put up 100 points a season generally age pretty well (maybe not past 38 or 39 but they don't generally fall off a cliff at 34).

That's not to say that we should expect 100 points a season at age 35 but if he is scoring at a 60 point clip, while still being physical and hovering around 56% FO percentage those are good 2C numbers at a cap hit that will be commensurate with that type of production. That was the point of what I laid out.

 

[duhmetreE]

Olivier would be great with Edstrom and Carrick.

And Just give me a Lindgren upgrade and I’d be content.