Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XV

[Thirty One]

I think three Rangers have waived a NTC, ever (Kotalik, Gaborik, Nash).

Come to think of it, I don't think Nash was one either. Think Boston was on his list.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

I'd rather keep Hayes than get a late 1st and a mid-tier prospect... assuming reasonable terms are met

He's ascending in play and getting better. Not descending like a Nash/Stepan.

Define reasonable terms. You've already seemingly thrown the reality of a NTC/NMC out the window, so I'm just curious.

 

[duhmetreE]

Define reasonable terms. You've already seemingly thrown the reality of a NTC/NMC out the window, so I'm just curious.

5yr/$25-30 with NTC similar to Shattenkirk

 

[True Blue]

Dropping 2 out of 3 of Staal, Shattenkirk and Smith will go a long way.

Far easier said than done.

With Pionk and ADA I don't see why Shatty should be here.

Because he may be difficult to trade right now.

 

[Ghost of jas]

It's interesting for me to see the ebb and flow on how the board views Hayes over the years. Right now we're on a high and there's this feeling that we're almost elevating him to a level that I'm just not seeing.

I expect there to be an impact on the team if/when we move Hayes. After all, if we think the player is talented enough to bring back a good return via a trade, then you'd think there would be some impact. But I'm not sure the impact is going to be as dramatic as some might think. I think between Howden, Chytil and Andersson, the Rangers will be at least alright.

But Hayes is a prime example of the challenges and risks of a trade. It's hard to trade a player when they're having a good season and can potentially have quite a few good seasons ahead of them. But it's even harder to trade a player that isn't producing or having a good season.

In Hayes case, any move for him is simply about trying to balance out the roster beyond the center position --- it's not indictment of his play.

If you have three young centers, and potentially a fourth after the draft, you have to explore ways to fill other positions. Whether that's with a young talent, a prospect, a pick and a prospect combination, etc., the Rangers are at that point.

Maybe I'm reading this rebuild incorrectly, but I've been under the impression, (and I'm pretty sure this came from the owner himself), that the goal is to WIN Cups, not simply replicate the past run or contend. So, I take that to mean not follow the same flaws as the last time around, which was lack of top end skill. This rebuild isn't happening in a vacuum. This is a conference in which the top teams are loaded at center, and all them have better duos than Zibanejad/Hayes. You can get away with one of them in your top two, but, not both. Frankly, IMO, it's easier to get a better center than Hayes than it is to get one better than Zibanejad,. And, Zibanejad has a much higher ceiling and is already better than Hayes, and has accomplished more, while being on a potentially much better contract. Frankly, I'm not even sure the 2nd line center is currently in the system. The more I watch him, the more I'm convinced Chytil belongs on the wing. I like Howden a lot, but I like him even better with a higher end 2nd line center (such as Dach, Turcotte or Newhook) in front of him. I'm not even sure what to make of Andersson at the moment. But, why would you pay big money, (and yes, we're looking at the Stepan deal), to a player who, IMO, is not a difference maker, when you can at worst allow one of Howden/Andersson to provide similar production in the interim?

We continue to say that this process is still in the early stages. We've both agreed that it's very possible that even some of the 1st rounders we've selected may very well not end up being here when the process is completed. I still feel like people are still going by the old Ranger rules, when in reality, we are in very new territory.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

5yr/$25-30 with NTC similar to Shattenkirk

You seem to be on the extremely low end of term/dollars/type of no movement clause Hayes will receive if he continues this type of play. So, I guess, if Hayes and his agent have a collective stroke, this plan could work.

 

[Bluto]

Maybe I'm reading this rebuild incorrectly, but I've been under the impression, (and I'm pretty sure this came from the owner himself), that the goal is to WIN Cups, not simply replicate the past run or contend. So, I take that to mean not follow the same flaws as the last time around, which was lack of top end skill. This rebuild isn't happening in a vacuum. This is a conference in which the top teams are loaded at center, and all them have better duos than Zibanejad/Hayes. You can get away with one of them in your top two, but, not both. Frankly, IMO, it's easier to get a better center than Hayes than it is to get one better than Zibanejad,. And, Zibanejad has a much higher ceiling and is already better than Hayes, and has accomplished more, while being on a potentially much better contract. Frankly, I'm not even sure the 2nd line center is currently in the system. The more I watch him, the more I'm convinced Chytil belongs on the wing. I like Howden a lot, but I like him even better with a higher end 2nd line center (such as Dach, Turcotte or Newhook) in front of him. I'm not even sure what to make of Andersson at the moment. But, why would you pay big money, (and yes, we're looking at the Stepan deal), to a player who, IMO, is not a difference maker, when you can at worst allow one of Howden/Andersson to provide similar production in the interim?

We continue to say that this process is still in the early stages. We've both agreed that it's very possible that even some of the 1st rounders we've selected may very well not end up being here when the process is completed. I still feel like people are still going by the old Ranger rules, when in reality, we are in very new territory.

I'm in my own camp who seems to believe we already have the pieces for a cup run in the system. The rookies are carrying us with Hank right now.
Howden is already a competent 2/3C and will only get better.
Lias will be at minimum a 3c
Chytil is already very competent and will only get better.
Miller looks like he will be a bonafide superstar
Kravtsov looks to be the real desl.
ADA is having a strong year.
Pionk will be a 2d at the end of the day.
Lindqvist looks to be a special player as well and is performing great in Sweden.
Shesty will be a great platoon with Hank.
Add to it that we will have Zibby and Kreider and Fast and Skjei for the foreseeable future and I dont think this rebuild will be very long at all. And Hajek and Rykov are no slouches either.

 

[NewLife]

How does the rest of the league value Hayes? Higher than Stepan? Then he has to be traded...

Anyhow he should bring back something valuable going forward.
Our own draft pick will most certainly be a better one.
Lias & Chytil will get better opportunities.

Some GM will hopefully bite hard if he keeps up. The sooner the better.

How need him though?

 

[NY Lito]

I'm in my own camp who seems to believe we already have the pieces for a cup run in the system. The rookies are carrying us with Hank right now.
Howden is already a competent 2/3C and will only get better.
Lias will be at minimum a 3c
Chytil is already very competent and will only get better.
Miller looks like he will be a bonafide superstar
Kravtsov looks to be the real desl.
ADA is having a strong year.
Pionk will be a 2d at the end of the day.
Lindqvist looks to be a special player as well and is performing great in Sweden.
Shesty will be a great platoon with Hank.
Add to it that we will have Zibby and Kreider and Fast and Skjei for the foreseeable future and I dont think this rebuild will be very long at all. And Hajek and Rykov are no slouches either.

I appreciate the optimism. But at the same time hold your horses here. Even if (IF) all of the above is true congrats we’re a playoff team. Still not what I’d call a cup contender/favorite.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I appreciate the optimism. But at the same time hold your horses here. Even if (IF) all of the above is true congrats we’re a playoff team. Still not what I’d call a cup contender/favorite.

Exactly.

 

[NY Lito]

Exactly.

If every team’s prospects all worked out we’d have 31 contenders every year. Not the case.

I do think we have some really good pieces. Crazy to think what the cupboard looked like just a year ago compared to now. But there’s still a lot of room for improvement. Need another draft in ‘19 like we did in ‘18 and ‘17. Not even saying all those guys are guaranteed home runs, just that we need to be taking a lot more swings.

 

[Ghost of jas]

If every team’s prospects all worked out we’d have 31 contenders every year. Not the case.

I do think we have some really good pieces. Crazy to think what the cupboard looked like just a year ago compared to now. But there’s still a lot of room for improvement. Need another draft in ‘19 like we did in ‘18 and ‘17. Not even saying all those guys are guaranteed home runs, just that we need to be taking a lot more swings.

Yup. Last year’s first round thrilled me because you could see they were going for high upside. The Rangers need another first round with three picks this year.

 

[Edge]

Like a good investment portfolio we should have varying degrees of risk.

But yes, we need more assets. Unfortunately, the best way to get assets is to move players who have value.

That’s going to mean saying goodbyes to guys we like.

 

[Tawnos]

How does the rest of the league value Hayes? Higher than Stepan? Then he has to be traded...

Anyhow he should bring back something valuable going forward.
Our own draft pick will most certainly be a better one.
Lias & Chytil will get better opportunities.

Some GM will hopefully bite hard if he keeps up. The sooner the better.

How need him though?

There is just no way Hayes is valued higher than Stepan. And I’m talking without context. Given that Hayes is a pending UFA, and Stepan had 4 years left on his deal...

Hayes’ value is a mid-late 1st and a B-prospect. Maybe a 2nd or 3rd in addition, but that’s about it. And that’s a deal we should make.

 

[Edge]

There is just no way Hayes is valued higher than Stepan. And I’m talking without context. Given that Hayes is a pending UFA, and Stepan had 4 years left on his deal...

Hayes’ value is a mid-late 1st and a B-prospect. Maybe a 2nd or 3rd in addition, but that’s about it. And that’s a deal we should make.

That’s roughly the deal I would expect.

 

[WeRa]

But yes, we need more assets. Unfortunately, the best way to get assets is to move players who have value.

That’s going to mean saying goodbyes to guys we like.

As you said. Unfortunately...
Our kids playing well, our chance to win the draft is minimal at the moment.

 

[QJL]

As you said. Unfortunately...
Our kids playing well, our chance to win the draft is minimal at the moment.

We are one game over .500, everyone is meeting or exceeding expectations, and we’re just 21 games in. I’m still expecting something to give. This isn’t a cup team and Gorton should know it. If anything, the early success might lead to an earlier move. This team is going to lose games with Hayes, Zucc, Claesson, and possibly a Namestnikov/Vesey out of the lineup.

I predict something like 36-38-8. We will finish in the bottom 6-10 range and win the lottery. Feeling lucky this year.

 

[WeRa]

I predict something like 36-38-8. We will finish in the bottom 6-10 range and win the lottery. Feeling lucky this year.

Great! This sounds like a dream..

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I dont think this team is going down easily, I'm feeling like we will be in a playoff spot unless Gorton unloads players early.

 

[Edge]

As you said. Unfortunately...
Our kids playing well, our chance to win the draft is minimal at the moment.

I won’t lie, having a high pick is something I’d prefer — especially looking at this year’s talent. But if this team can keep identifying guys like Chytil and Miller in the 20s, it will provide a lot of depth of the talent. Obviously at some point, depth might lead to a trade for specific talent, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

The one thing I will say as a positive to all this winning is if we are serious about getting Panarin you want him to see that the team isnt a tire fire so in that regard winning might help us actually land a high end talent albeit not a 19 year old one.

 

[RGY]

It would be one thing is this team was hanging around the playoff bubble spots with old aging veterans brought in via free agency and over paid a la 2000-2004. You know the Bobby Holik type signings, which always kept them away from the top draft pick but never enough to really compete. But they are winning with their young guns. They are having these kids develop in a winning environment. You need that. And to a degree management needs to show some faith in these kids by not selling off guys like Hayes and Zucc in November so they can practically lose on purpose despite it not fitting the agenda of many here. It sends a terrible message. Wait until the deadline or until it starts to go the other way fast, then sell some pieces. Nothing has to be done right now. Let these kids continue to get better while experiencing finding ways to win every night. It will go a long way for this them when they are really ready to compete, which I believe is in 2 years IF they sign Panarin, Kravtsov progresses, and you add in another young defenseman or two during that time.

 

[East Coast Bias]

It would be one thing is this team was hanging around the playoff bubble spots with old aging veterans brought in via free agency and over paid a la 2000-2004. You know the Bobby Holik type signings, which always kept them away from the top draft pick but never enough to really compete. But they are winning with their young guns. They are having these kids develop in a winning environment. You need that. And to a degree management needs to show some faith in these kids by not selling off guys like Hayes and Zucc in November so they can practically lose on purpose despite it not fitting the agenda of many here. It sends a terrible message. Wait until the deadline or until it starts to go the other way fast, then sell some pieces. Nothing has to be done right now. Let these kids continue to get better while experiencing finding ways to win every night. It will go a long way for this them when they are really ready to compete, which I believe is in 2 years IF they sign Panarin, Kravtsov progresses, and you add in another young defenseman or two during that time.

I understand what you're saying, and I think the decision is going to be much harder for management than we see it as. But letting guys go as FA with nothing to show for it is a bad strategy. If they still had term left, I could buy it more. But odds are they're going after the season, and they're not going to win us a cup this year.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Holding onto guys just to get knocked out in the first round would be so dumb.

I can see the case for extending Hayes. Zucc 1000000000% has to go. We’ve been fine without him.

 

[Tawnos]

I understand what you're saying, and I think the decision is going to be much harder for management than we see it as. But letting guys go as FA with nothing to show for it is a bad strategy. If they still had term left, I could buy it more. But odds are they're going after the season, and they're not going to win us a cup this year.

Holding onto guys just to get knocked out in the first round would be so dumb.

I can see the case for extending Hayes. Zucc 1000000000% has to go. We’ve been fine without him.

@RGY wasn't saying hold onto those guys through the potential playoffs. If you read his whole post, he's advocating against trading these guys in November or December, but fine dealing them at the deadline (or if the team starts losing a lot).