Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part XV: Trading up or down? - Mod Warning post #450

[Amazing Kreiderman]

With the old thread being over 10k replies already, Gardner suggested starting a new thread.

I am including some info regarding trading up or down at the draft since that will probably come up several times while discussing our rebuid.


I know there's an overview with this info but that was rather limited. I took the time to put some more emphasis on the difference between trading with just picks, or trading with players involved.


Going back to 2005, these are the trades I could find of teams trading up solely using picks:

2017: 26th (DAL) for 29th + 70th (CHI)
2016: 26th (STL) for 28th + 87th (WSH)
2016: 18th + 3rd (WPG) for 22nd + 2nd (PHI)
2016: 16th + Datsyuk* (ARI) for 20th + 2nd (DET)
2016: 11th (OTT) for 12th + 3rd (NJD)
2015: 29th (CLB) for 33rd + 68th (TOR)
2015: 24th (PHI) for 29th + 61st (TOR)
2014: 20th + 179th (SJS) for 28th + 62nd (CHI)
2014: 28th (NYI) for 35th and 57th (TBL)
2013: 18th (SJS) for 20th + 58th (DET)
2012: 14th (BUF) for 21st + 42nd (CGY)
2011: 22nd (TOR) for 30th + 39th (ANA)
2011: 24th (OTT) for 35th + 48th (DET)
2010: 15th (LAK) for 19th + 59th (BOS)
2010: 22nd + 113th (MTL) for 27th + 57th (ARI)
2010: 30th (NYI) for 35th and 58th (CHI)
2009: 16th, 77th 182nd (MIN) for 12th (NYI)
2008: 5th (TOR) for 7th, 68th, 37th in 2009 (NYI)
2008: 7th (NSH) for 9th, 40th (NYI)
2007: 9th (SJS) for 13th, 44th, 87th in 2008 (STL)
2005: 8th (SJS) for 12th, 49th, 207th (ATL)
2005: 12th (NYR) fot 16th and 41st (ATL)


*Datsyuk already retired from the NHL, so this was just the cap hit traded to Arizona

And these are the teams who traded into the 1st (or up) with players involved:

2017: 7th overall + DeAngelo (NYR) for Raanta + Stepan (ARI)
2017: 31st overall + Sundqvist (STL) for Reaves + 2nd (PIT)
2017: 27th overall + cond. '18 1st + Lehtera (PHI) for B. Schenn (STL)
2016: 30th overall + '17 2nd (ANA) for Andersen (TOR)
2015: 21st overall (OTT) for Lehner + Legwand (BUF)
2015: 15th overall + two 2nd (BOS) for D. Hamilton (CGY)
2015: 13th overall + C. Miller + M. Jones (BOS) for Lucic (LAK)
2015: 16th overall + 2nd (NYI) for G. Reinhart (EDM)
2014: 24th overall + Sbisa, Bonino, 3rd (VAN) for Kesler + 3rd (ANA)
2014: 10th overall + Silfverberg + Noesen (ANA) for Ryan (OTT)
2013: 9th overall (VAN) for Schneider (NJD)
2013: 16th overall (BUF) + Hackett + J. Larsson for Pominville + 4th (MIN)


With our pick being 9th OA, and we want to trade up, this should be the realistic price (with a possible 7th rounder here and there):

8: our 3rd rounder
7: NJ 2nd rounder
6: our 2nd rounder
Anything higher will probably involve one of our late 1st rounders then.

Click to read more...

 

[Gardner McKay]

I spend 5 minutes trying to find the perfect thread title, only to realize you already made a thread.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I spend 5 minutes trying to find the perfect thread title, only to realize you already made a thread.

Hahahaha. I am quick

 

[silverfish]

Darling, Pesce, and 2OA. Go, go, go.

 

[Trxjw]

Random Zucc proposal to kick things off:

Zucc and #26 to Florida for #15 and Max Gildon

 

[Mac n Gs]

Darling, Pesce, and 2OA. Go, go, go.

RobertDeniroYoureGood.gif

Random Zucc proposal to kick things off:

Zucc and #26 to Florida for #15 and Max Gildon

Think I saw you post this elsewhere, and I loved it. As to your other post about not moving up, I agree unless we can manage to keep our higher picks and swing a salary deal to help out Detroit.

@bobbop had an interesting trade board idea, but we’d have to have more (a decent amount) coming back to us. There’s still four years left on Kessel’s deal

 

[nyr2k2]

Definitely can't use a first to trade up unless you're getting one of the top three prospects.

Late firsts are still valuable. Look at Washington.

Carlson--27rd
Kuznetsov--26th
Johansson--24th (not same caliber but still)
Varlamov--23rd
Green--29th

That was in a six-year period. Obviously they also had some misses. But the point remains--if you do a good job scouting, take some good calculated risks, and excel at developing players, picks in the 23-30 area can yield great results. This is just one team and there are dozens upon dozens of other guys picks in the same range that are great.

I'm okay using a second, but not a first. Not unless it's for Dahlin or something, but I'm talking realistic moves.

 

[GregSirico]

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Definitely can't use a first to trade up unless you're getting one of the top three prospects.

Late firsts are still valuable. Look at Washington.

Carlson--27rd
Kuznetsov--26th
Johansson--24th (not same caliber but still)
Varlamov--23rd
Green--29th

That was in a six-year period. Obviously they also had some misses. But the point remains--if you do a good job scouting, take some good calculated risks, and excel at developing players, picks in the 23-30 area can yield great results. This is just one team and there are dozens upon dozens of other guys picks in the same range that are great.

I'm okay using a second, but not a first. Not unless it's for Dahlin or something, but I'm talking realistic moves.

I'll add a few more (either late first or early second).

Rakell
Tolvanen
Neal
Niskanen
Perron
Voynov
O'Reilly

If you give up a late first, it has to be for 4th overall at least.

 

[NYR Viper]

I just really like the simplicity of Zuccarello for FLA 1st '18 + FLA 3rd '19

Then use the NYR 2nd to move up to #6

Select Wahlstrom or Hughes and Farabee

 

[Trxjw]

Think I saw you post this elsewhere, and I loved it. As to your other post about not moving up, I agree unless we can manage to keep our higher picks and swing a salary deal to help out Detroit.

@bobbop had an interesting trade board idea, but we’d have to have more (a decent amount) coming back to us. There’s still four years left on Kessel’s deal

Yeah I threw it out in the draft thread as well. I love Gildon. Only hang up is I think the Panthers probably love Gildon as well, but maybe that's the price to pay to make the playoffs next season.

I'd be on board with moving up if Detroit wanted to drop Ericsson on us, but I'd stay far away from a guy like Abdelkader or Nielsen. That being said, I think they'll be okay getting their guys under contract without having to move any big money out.

I saw Bob's trade idea. I think it's a lot to pay to move up 4 spots in a draft where you're not getting into that "next tier" of guys. Then again, maybe the Rangers have someone like Wahlstrom at 4 and would kill to get him, so who knows? If we were giving up Zucc, #9, and eating that much on Kessel, I'd want Pitt to send us Sprong. So ultimately it'd be:

To Ariz: Kessel @50% and #9
To Pitt: Zucc and Domi
To NYR: #5 and Sprong +50% of Kessel's salary

I like it a bit better, but man, having $3.4M of dead space on the books for 4 more years is a little rough just to jump up 4 spots and add a prospect; and this is coming from a guy who damn near flipped his coffee table over when we passed on Sprong for Gropp.

 

[GregSirico]

I just really like the simplicity of Zuccarello for FLA 1st '18 + FLA 3rd '19

Then use the NYR 2nd to move up to #6

Select Wahlstrom or Hughes and Farabee

Man I am so on board with this.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

I would love it if we could get another top 10 pick and move up from one of them. Imagine walking away from this draft with Wahlstrom and Dobson? Oh baby.

 

[Chytilborg]

I just really like the simplicity of Zuccarello for FLA 1st '18 + FLA 3rd '19

Then use the NYR 2nd to move up to #6

Select Wahlstrom or Hughes and Farabee

This works for me. I would like to keep all three first round picks, to be honest.

 

[CaptBagel]

I'd only move up for the top 3
I'd rather have Farabee at 9 and Jenik at 39 than Wahlstrom at 6

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I'd only move up for the top 3
I'd rather have Farabee at 9 and Jenik at 39 than Wahlstrom at 6

Well, the pick has to be available

 

[Chytilborg]

Is the Tampa pick too high for Merkley?

 

[Fitzy]

Is the Tampa pick too high for Merkley?

I've seen mocks with Merkley as low as the third round. If we're trying to steal him we should do it properly and at least wait until the 2nd round. Plenty of other options available if he gets chosen.

I hope NYR scouting has done their due diligence on the 2nd-3rd round prospects as well. This draft is one of the biggest and most important events in our rebuild.

 

[iamitter]

Is the Tampa pick too high for Merkley?

I wouldn't be thrilled, but it depends on who's on the board at the time. Would be incredibly happy with him at 39. That said, I could see him going in the teens if a team likes him enough.

 

[Savant]

I saw Bob's trade idea. I think it's a lot to pay to move up 4 spots in a draft where you're not getting into that "next tier" of guys. Then again, maybe the Rangers have someone like Wahlstrom at 4 and would kill to get him, so who knows? If we were giving up Zucc, #9, and eating that much on Kessel, I'd want Pitt to send us Sprong. So ultimately it'd be:

To Ariz: Kessel @50% and #9
To Pitt: Zucc and Domi
To NYR: #5 and Sprong +50% of Kessel's salary

I like it a bit better, but man, having $3.4M of dead space on the books for 4 more years is a little rough just to jump up 4 spots and add a prospect; and this is coming from a guy who damn near flipped his coffee table over when we passed on Sprong for Gropp.

Getting to 6 gets you in that next tier though. Dahlin, Svechnikov and Zadina is top tier.

Next tier is the (alphabetically) Boqvist (if healthy checks out), Dobson, Hughes, Tkachuk and Wahlstrom.

Then you have the Bouchard, Kotkaniemi, Farabee, Smith tier.

To me, that's a big difference to get in that middle group. Those players have separated themselves.

 

[Trxjw]

Is the Tampa pick too high for Merkley?

You'll get varying opinions, but I think anything higher than a 2nd is too much. In a weaker draft year that might be different, but there are going to be some very strong prospects available in the late first who have less baggage and very promising upside.

The thing with Merkley is it's not like he's a complete player with attitude issues. He's pegged as an elite offensive talent who has shown absolutely no improvements on the defensive side of the puck. So you're not only betting on him maturing emotionally, but also learning how to play defense at a competent level. Otherwise you're going to end up with a guy who can't do any damage at ES because the coach doesn't trust him.

I honestly think he's a bit overrated. I feel like every year there's some player that the fans get hyped up on as a slider and they rarely live up to the hype.

 

[Trxjw]

Getting to 6 gets you in that next tier though. Dahlin, Svechnikov and Zadina is top tier.

Next tier is the (alphabetically) Boqvist (if healthy checks out), Dobson, Hughes, Tkachuk and Wahlstrom.

Then you have the Bouchard, Kotkaniemi, Farabee, Smith tier.

To me, that's a big difference to get in that middle group. Those players have separated themselves.

I disagree. I think Dobson, Hughes, Tkachuk, Wahlstrom, Kotkaniemi, and Farabee are all on the same tier. So at #9, we're definitely going to get one of those players. I have Boqvist on his own at #4.

So like I mentioned, it's a matter of what the Rangers board looks like. If Detroit is on the clock and the Rangers' #3 guy is on the board, then sure, I could see them making a move. However, from my perspective, there's no real incentive to move up unless you can get to #4 or higher.

 

[Savant]

I disagree. I think Dobson, Hughes, Tkachuk, Wahlstrom, Kotkaniemi, and Farabee are all on the same tier. So at #9, we're definitely going to get one of those players. I have Boqvist on his own at #4.

So like I mentioned, it's a matter of what the Rangers board looks like. If Detroit is on the clock and the Rangers' #3 guy is on the board, then sure, I could see them making a move. However, from my perspective, there's no real incentive to move up unless you can get to #4 or higher.

That's certainly a fair opinion but I do think there is a drop in between the majority of names and Kotkaniemi and Farabee. Sure it's a difference of opinion and board dependent but beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

 

[GregSirico]

 

[Edge]

I have Wahlstrom, Tkachuk, Farabee, Bouchard and Dobson all in the same category.