Speculation: Roster Building Thread : Part XV (Light em up!)

[SA16]

Not much point trading Panarin now. It would be better to consider next deadline. You don't generally get a much better return for the extra year because that extra year also means he's not a rental so you'll have a smaller market now (the LTIR teams now may not be able to fit his cap hit next year and such) Plus, it's better to wait a year and see about McDavid/Eichel rather than rush to Rantanen/Marner and then not have the ability if something happens.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Not much point trading Panarin now. It would be better to consider next deadline. You don't generally get a much better return for the extra year because that extra year also means he's not a rental so you'll have a smaller market now (the LTIR teams now may not be able to fit his cap hit next year and such) Plus, it's better to wait a year and see about McDavid/Eichel rather than rush to Rantanen/Marner and then not have the ability if something happens.

Fair points, although I’m doubtful Panarin would even waive in the first place. Even more reason to wait and maybe he’d be willing to move for a playoff run.

 

[SA16]

Fair points, although I’m doubtful Panarin would even waive in the first place. Even more reason to wait and maybe he’d be willing to move for a playoff run.

The other question is, is Panarin even able to waive given he uses a Nokia? He might not be able to respond in time.

 

[duhmetreE]

I honestly don’t know what a panarin return looks like. I’d expect to be underwhelmed

 

[LokiDog]

I’m up for it. Can’t be worse than 90% of the Rangers podcasts out there now.

This would take some planning and coordination and a lot of communication to get up and running. DM me and I’ll give you my email or number and we can discuss it in a more streamlined fashion. Ditto anyone else who has a genuine interest and complimentary skills, either on the how to execute the project, or complimentary hockey knowledge and analysis. I am serious about taking a shot at it, as it’s something I have a genuine passion for and even making a minor revenue stream out of it would be beyond thrilling.

My first bachelor’s degree, pre-military was in journalism. But I went into college when journalism was almost exclusively print and graduated when you needed an online blog and “engagement” and followers and a portfolio on some type of online platform in order to get hired, rather than some writing samples and experience at the school newspaper, so eventually I stopped pursuing anything journalism related and that’s partially how I ended up in the military - I couldn’t find a job with my degree. If it isn’t obvious, when I was studying journalism, the goal was always to be a hockey writer. As I mentioned above, growing up surrounded by NHL players and their families, in their homes, in their locker rooms, on their ice at practices and then playing through high school and college (and men’s league) and coaching… hockey has basically been my life since I was 3.

So while it’s a long shot at becoming a serious money maker, even as a hobby, it would be massively fulfilling and I’m willing to collaborate with 1-2 individuals who can genuinely compliment the areas I am efficient in and have an equal level of seriousness about making a go of it.

 

[ThePeoplesPeople]

Couldn’t agree more. Unfortunately Panarin’s playoff struggles have tainted his legacy and some people will let it cloud their judgement of him, fair enough. Let’s not overlook the fact that he’s had some of the best years in the history of this franchise. Last season at age 32 he was a legitimate hart candidate. He’s carried this team offensively forever. At some point he was going to look his age and it’s been happening more frequently this season.

I’m not against trading him either because it’s doubtful this team wins before his contract is up, but to try to place a lot of the blame on this teams failures on Panarin is crazy to me.

Spot on. 506 points in 390 games is crazy. Also love his humor and the way he carries himself. Just an awesome Ranger at the end of the day.

 

[NYR Viper]

Not much point trading Panarin now. It would be better to consider next deadline. You don't generally get a much better return for the extra year because that extra year also means he's not a rental so you'll have a smaller market now (the LTIR teams now may not be able to fit his cap hit next year and such) Plus, it's better to wait a year and see about McDavid/Eichel rather than rush to Rantanen/Marner and then not have the ability if something happens.

I think the market for that player COULD be smaller than it woudl be next year but I think there are teams who would prefer the longer term availability of him. Specifically, Dallas and LA

 

[McRanger92]

I know we all hate Igor's contract right now but we're also sitting on 8 million of unused cap space. Not exactly a full roster playing ahead of him. he brought the criticism on himself with his contract demands but Im ok with him being a top3 goalie in the league when Tristan Jarry is getting waived 2 years into a 5x5 contract. Unless someone has an answer to the "Elite 1C" we would need to win that way, people should probably stop bringing up Matt Murray winning 2 Cups with prime Sid and Geno when saying goaltending doesnt matter. Or Kuemper playing with prime Mackinnon and Makar. We can love Panarin and Fox's point totals all we want but they arent those guys.

 

[RangerBoy]

One of Panarin or Kreider can't be on the team next season. Both of them represent the old core and the Rangers need to move from both of them. There is no future in them and the Rangers Stanley Cup aspirations are over with this group. What are we doing? I am sick of them all. Kreider needs to expand his 15 team trade list and Panarin needs to consider waiving his NMC after presenting him with a trade or I will leak it Brooks to report that Panarin refused to waive his NMC. The Rangers wanted him off the team and he said no.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

If you’re kicking anyone out the door it should be Kreider not Panarin

 

[NYR Viper]

One of Panarin or Kreider can't be on the team next season. Both of them represent the old core and the Rangers need to move from both of them. There is no future in them and the Rangers Stanley Cup aspirations are over with this group. What are we doing? I am sick of them all. Kreider needs to expand his 15 team trade list and Panarin needs to consider waiving his NMC after presenting him with a trade or I will leak it Brooks to report that Panarin refused to waive his NMC. The Rangers wanted him off the team and he said no.

I think one of them needs to go at the deadline, along with Smith and Lindgren at a minimum

 

[GAGLine]

To me it's less about should they trade him and more about will Drury/Dolan trade a star player and accept a rebuild. I think not.

Maybe not but trading Panarin doesn't automatically mean rebuild. It doesn't mean we are trading him at the deadline or that we are only getting futures back. Beyond that, I can't control what Drury/Dolan will or won't do. All I can do is discuss what I think they should do.

I think part of theconcern is that you don't want to make a trade, even if it's a really good one, and be left trying to replace Jagr with Naslund because we missed the Hossa parade.

If NYR were to trade Panarin, it'd make sense were they to go out and sign Rantanen or Marner, younger, to play the same role for the team. That only works if you lock up a player who 15-20 teams will be bidding on.

Even if you make a really good deconstructive Panarin trade to get multiple assets, you need top players at the helm of your lineup. Without Panarin, we no longer have enough depth NOR top end ability at forward.

So, you are afraid. It isn't the end of the world if we don't have an immediate superstar replacement for Panarin.

I have no fear of trading Panarin at all. I'd be for it for sure depending on return. I'd also be for him being here for the next 3-5 seasons at a reasonable price.

My point was that the hate, and desire to kick him to the curb is a bit crazy. Just my opinion. He's probably the 2nd, at worst 3rd, best Rangers player in 30 years. He has lived up to the signing from Day 1.

I understand the playoff gripes. I was calling for his removal too. But I won't pretend he's some albatross.

The bolded is debatable. Regular season, he has earned his keep, though I still maintain we had no business signing him at that time. In the playoffs, he hasn't been an 11.6 mil player, and I don't think anyone can really argue that point.

And to be clear, I'm not saying he's an albatross. I'm saying he might have more value to us as a trade chip than as a player going forward. I honestly don't think we are going to win a cup with him. We had our chances and didn't do it. I'd rather trade him for pieces that may help us win a cup.

 

[lakeshirts37]

I know we all hate Igor's contract right now but we're also sitting on 8 million of unused cap space. Not exactly a full roster playing ahead of him. he brought the criticism on himself with his contract demands but Im ok with him being a top3 goalie in the league when Tristan Jarry is getting waived 2 years into a 5x5 contract. Unless someone has an answer to the "Elite 1C" we would need to win that way, people should probably stop bringing up Matt Murray winning 2 Cups with prime Sid and Geno when saying goaltending doesnt matter. Or Kuemper playing with prime Mackinnon and Makar. We can love Panarin and Fox's point totals all we want but they arent those guys.

this years cap space has nothing to do with igor’s extension that kicks in next year

 

[McRanger92]

this years cap space has nothing to do with igor’s extension that kicks in next year

His contract that kicks in next year also has nothing to do with his play this year not living up to it.

 

[LokiDog]

I know we all hate Igor's contract right now but we're also sitting on 8 million of unused cap space. Not exactly a full roster playing ahead of him. he brought the criticism on himself with his contract demands but Im ok with him being a top3 goalie in the league when Tristan Jarry is getting waived 2 years into a 5x5 contract. Unless someone has an answer to the "Elite 1C" we would need to win that way, people should probably stop bringing up Matt Murray winning 2 Cups with prime Sid and Geno when saying goaltending doesnt matter. Or Kuemper playing with prime Mackinnon and Makar. We can love Panarin and Fox's point totals all we want but they arent those guys.

It isn’t “to win THAT way.”

It’s “that is THE way.”

That’s the problem. You could be okay with paying Igor 19M per year. And he could be the undisputed best goalie in the league and win every Vezina for the 8 years of his contract; we still aren’t going to magically break the 20+ year mould:

No 1C, no Cup. There is no other way. It isn’t “that way OR another way”. It’s THE way.

Even when Anaheim won with MacDonald as their 1C (and he did put up 78 points) they ALSO had a second year Ryan Getzlaf who put up about 60 points as a sophomore and would go on to be their real 1C for a decade plus. They also had Pronger, Neidermeyer, Selanne and Perry, but even though MacDonald was their 1C on paper, it was the equivalent of winning a Cup with Celebrini in his sophomore year. He may not have been in the role yet, but they had the piece and he was able to make an impact. Proof? Getzlaf led the team in playoff scoring, despite missing several games.

So what’s the point of paying a goalie that much, just to keep you middling without any realistic chance at winning? Get a Blackwood or Kuemper, pay them 5M to be “good enough” that you CAN make the playoffs and make a run if the roster around them supports it, but who won’t keep you from improving via draft and accumulating high quality youth if the roster in front of them is a mess. Igor will never allow us to build anything different from what we have seen for literally 2 decades now. He’s a worse Hank.

 

[Fitzy]

So, you are afraid. It isn't the end of the world if we don't have an immediate superstar replacement for Panarin.

Sure, I'm afraid? I'm a grown man, I can admit that I'm psychologically averse to watching the Rangers suck eggs yeah

It is the end of the world unless the team is rebuilding (Which, as we all know now, isn't in the cards), because there's zero shot the Rangers win a cup without star power up front.

 

[McRanger92]

It isn’t “to win THAT way.”

It’s “that is THE way.”

That’s the problem. You could be okay with paying Igor 19M per year. And he could be the undisputed best goalie in the league and win every Vezina for the 8 years of his contract; we still aren’t going to magically break the 20+ year mould:

No 1C, no Cup.

Even when Anaheim won with MacDonald as their 1C (and he did put up 78 points) they ALSO had a second year Ryan Getzlaf who put up about 60 points as a sophomore and would go on to be their real 1C for a decade plus. They also had Pronger, Neidermeyer, Selanne and Perry, but even though MacDonald was their 1C on paper, it was the equivalent of winning a Cup with Celebrini in his sophomore year. He may not have been in the role yet, but they had the piece and he was able to make an impact. Proof? Getzlaf led them in playoff scoring.

So what’s the point of paying a goalie that much, just to keep you middling without any realistic chance at winning? Get a Blackwood or Kuemper, pay them 5M to be “good enough” that you CAN make the playoffs and make a run if the roster around them supports it, but who won’t keep you from improving via draft and accumulating high quality youth if the roster in front of them is a mess. Igor will never allow is to build anything different from what we have seen for literally 2 decades now.

That's what Im saying. People cant go around spouting off that we shouldnt have paid Igor because Matt Murray and Darcy Kuemper won Cups. They had elite centers that we dont. Drury signed his elite player because it was most likely mandated by ownership. If we wanted to not pay the elite goalie, we needed to have elite centers. There's no reason the rangers can't win down the road with Igor getting paid 11.5. Florida just did it. We just need to build a roster around him thats conducive to it. And yes, we need that top center from somewhere. Thats above my pay grade.

 

[GAGLine]

Sure, I'm afraid? I'm a grown man, I can admit that I'm psychologically averse to watching the Rangers suck eggs yeah

It is the end of the world unless the team is rebuilding (Which, as we all know now, isn't in the cards), because there's zero shot the Rangers win a cup without star power up front.

Assuming the bolded is true, do you honestly believe Panarin is the guy who will get us there? How long are you willing to give him?

At some point, your worst fear is going to be realized. Panarin is going to leave, one way or another. Personally, I'd rather rip the band aid off now while we can still get a good return for him.

 

[LokiDog]

That's what Im saying. People cant go around spouting off that we shouldnt have paid Igor because Matt Murray and Darcy Kuemper won Cups. They had elite centers that we dont. Drury signed his elite player because it was most likely mandated by ownership. If we wanted to not pay the elite goalie, we needed to have elite centers. There's no reason the rangers can't win down the road with Igor getting paid 11.5. Florida just did it. We just need to build a roster around him thats conducive to it. And yes, we need that top center from somewhere. Thats above my pay grade.

That’s not why people are saying we shouldn’t have paid Igor though. People are saying we shouldn’t have paid Igor because we don’t have a 1C and keeping him means we won’t be ABLE to get one.

If we’re never going to have one, what is the point of Igor being here? The Rangers could win down the road with Igor making 11M if they already had a 1C developing somewhere. They can’t get a 1C with Igor on the team. No one said you can’t win paying Bobrovsky or Vasilevsky.

The issue is you can’t GET Barkov or Stamkos/Hedman or Mackinnon if you don’t have them BEFORE you get the goalie. We shouldn’t have paid Igor because you can’t get a 1C when you have a top goalie. You CAN get a top goalie when you have a 1C.

Why? Because nothing becomes available, outside of the draft, less often than 1Cs and when they do, they are either 27, getting their retirement contract, or have question marks like Eichel’s neck. Outside of that? You will never see a genuine 1C in their prime available.

On the contrary, Askarov may be the next Shesterkin easily and he was acquired for peanuts. Bobrovsky has played for how many teams? How many true 1Cs play for more than two franchises in their career, and how many play for their second franchise before the age of ~28?

If the Sharks win eventually, it will be because of Celebrini though. Gotta have Celebrini first.

What’s the wager that McDavid wins a Cup in front of Skinner or some equally journeyman quality goalie before Igor wins a Cup with the Rangers in front of him?

 

[McRanger92]

That’s not why people are saying we shouldn’t have paid Igor though. People are saying we shouldn’t have paid Igor because we don’t have a 1C and keeping he means we won’t be ABLE to get one. If we’re never going to have one, what is the point of Igor being here? The Rangers could win down the road with Igor making 11M if they had a 1C developing somewhere. They can’t get a 1C with Igor on the team. No one said you can’t win paying Bobrovsky or Vasilevsky. You can’t GET Barkov or Stamkos/Hedman or Mackinnon if you don’t have them BEFORE you get the goalie. We shouldn’t have paid Igor because you can’t get a 1C when you have a top goalie. You can get a top goalie when you have a 1C? Why? Because nothing becomes available, outside of the draft, less often than 1Cs and when they do, they are either 27, getting their retirement contract, or have question marks like Eichel’s neck. Outside of that? You will never see a genuine 1C in their prime available. On the contrary, Askarov may be the next Shesterkin easily and he was acquired for peanuts. If the Sharks win eventually, it will be because of Celebrini though. Gotta have Celebrini first.

Us not getting a 1C has zero to do with Igor's contract. Using EP40 as an example ( I dont like him much but he's available and a 1C) what about Igor's contract is stopping us from adding him? Rangers could take Chytil and Kreider off the roster and have the money to pay an 11.6 million dollar C. You could aslo get rid of Panarin and immediately afford it. Paying Igor that type of money when he is the only guy on the team who raises his game consistently in the playoffs is fine with me. We should be mad at the guy we paid 11.6 million too site unseen, who never has shown up in big games.

 

[LokiDog]

Us not getting a 1C has zero to do with Igor's contract. Using EP40 as an example ( I dont like him much but he's available and a 1C) what about Igor's contract is stopping us from adding him? Rangers could take Chytil and Kreider off the roster and have the money to pay an 11.6 million dollar C. You could aslo get rid of Panarin and immediately afford it. Paying Igor that type of money when he is the only guy on the team who raises his game consistently in the playoffs is fine with me. We should be mad at the guy we paid 11.6 million too site unseen, who never has shown up in big games.

EP is exactly what I said though. He’s 26 and has question marks. Even if we make good changes over the off-season, the first real year he’d be able to help us compete is 27. You want to build around a franchise center, not add a 27 year old with questions around whether he’s still elite and hope it solves your problem.

You’re obviously missing the generally, heavily agreed upon logic here and I don’t want to argue with people I like, but what you’re proposing is the complete opposite of what I’m talking about.

Igor’s CONTRACT isn’t what stops us from acquiring a 1C (and no one has said it is). Igor’s presence between the pipes is what stops us. He’s too good of a goalie for a team devoid of high end young offensive talent to acquire it. We need to draft it. Period. And at least one needs to be an elite center.

Moreover, why is Pettersson available? Why isn’t Mackinnon or Hughes or Eichel or Thompson or Draisaitl? True 1Cs without baggage never hit the market. When Eichel was available he had yet to play from neck surgery. Now? Good luck acquiring him, he’s on pace for 100+ points while playing great two way hockey on a contender. Why is EP available?

The way to acquire a true 1C is to draft and develop them. New Jersey drafted Hughes and acquired Markstrom, who has been a Vezina candidate himself. That’s the formula. Because Vezina caliber goalies move teams all the time. Elite 1Cs spend their entire career with the team that drafted them 95% of the time.

 

[bernmeister]

Not much point trading Panarin now. It would be better to consider next deadline. You don't generally get a much better return for the extra year because that extra year also means he's not a rental so you'll have a smaller market now (the LTIR teams now may not be able to fit his cap hit next year and such) Plus, it's better to wait a year and see about McDavid/Eichel rather than rush to Rantanen/Marner and then not have the ability if something happens.

disagree in that usually term on a productive player = valued +
more term generates higher return value
this increases w/lower salary, or in bread's case, $$ retained

If you’re kicking anyone out the door it should be Kreider not Panarin

The only one who DESERVES to get his sorry ass kicked out the door is Zib

As to a trade, there is no rational basis to not deal bread if what comes back is high enuf to - worthwhile profit in currency we desire. W/retention overpay is likely.
As to Kreider, an open mind must, by definition be open to considering moving him IF return is sufficient at min. Shoe on the other foot, it does NOT have to trade him just to unload him b'c, unlike Zib, he is not negative deadwood.
CK value partially compromised due to legit back issues.
How much discount this lowers the return = a fair ?, and based on that there is a serious basis to expect it is better to hold off into post season, and after other deals are made, see what is there, and test that before making Kreider a rental

 

[GAGLine]

People are saying we shouldn’t have paid Igor because we don’t have a 1C and keeping him means we won’t be ABLE to get one.

If Igor were making 9.5 mil, would anyone be saying that? Will that 2-mil difference really stop us from acquiring a 1C? The cap is going up significantly over the next couple years. That "overpayment" won't make much of a difference.

Mika is much more of a problem than Igor, because if we are somehow acquiring a 1C, removing Mika becomes a necessity. Of course, the largest issue in all of this is finding a 1C. There aren't many out there, and teams don't like to give them up.

 

[LokiDog]

If Igor were making 9.5 mil, would anyone be saying that? Will that 2-mil difference really stop us from acquiring a 1C? The cap is going up significantly over the next couple years. That "overpayment" won't make much of a difference.

Mika is much more of a problem than Igor, because if we are somehow acquiring a 1C, removing Mika becomes a necessity. Of course, the largest issue in all of this is finding a 1C. There aren't many out there, and teams don't like to give them up.

Um… yes. It has nothing to do with Igor’s contract. It has to do with - like Hank’s tenure - you can’t draft an elite center when your goalie guarantees you never suck badly enough to be in the race. Even this year with the atrocity of a slump they had, the Rangers will not finish bottom five. It has nothing to do with the money. It has to do with the fact that 1Cs under 27ish only become available if they are headcases like EP or have a broken neck like Eichel. Otherwise they are drafted, period (and either play for one franchise ever, or play with one franchise until they’re 30+ alla Stamkos). So yes, I believe myself and many others would be saying that when you lock in a franchise goalie before you have a franchise center, you are essentially doomed to never have the franchise center. It’s not the contract that is prohibitive, but then you do ask yourself what’s the point of paying the elite goalie when - without the 1C - you’re basically just going to tread water and waste their entire career never getting over the hump.

And yes, this makes hockey a bit of a crap shoot, because you either draft an elite center or you don’t. ROR and St. Louis is the one case in 20+ years that goes against the data. Every Cup winner had a 1C (or future 1C in a 2C role) that they drafted. Staal, Getzlaf, Toews, Kopitar, Bergeron, Crosby, Backstrom, Mackinnon, Stamkos/Point, etc.

Vegas acquired Eichel when he had question marks around his health. If we pull the trigger on Kakko + Chytil + 1st for Eichel we probably have a Cup.

 

[McRanger92]

EP is exactly what I said though. He’s 26 and has question marks. Even if we make good changes over the off-season, the first real year he’d be able to help us compete is 27. You want to build around a franchise center, not add a 27 year old with questions around whether he’s still elite and hope it solves your problem.

You’re obviously missing the generally, heavily agreed upon logic here and I don’t want to argue with people I like, but what you’re proposing is the complete opposite of what I’m talking about.

Igor’s CONTRACT isn’t what stops us from acquiring a 1C (and no one has said it is). Igor’s presence between the pipes is what stops us. He’s too good of a goalie for a team devoid of high end young offensive talent to acquire it. We need to draft it. Period. And at least one needs to be an elite center.

Moreover, why is Pettersson available? Why isn’t Mackinnon or Hughes or Eichel or Thompson or Draisaitl? True 1Cs without baggage never hit the market. When Eichel was available he had yet to play from neck surgery. Now? Good luck acquiring him, he’s on pace for 100+ points while playing great two way hockey on a contender. Why is EP available?

The way to acquire a true 1C is to draft and develop them. New Jersey drafted Hughes and acquired Markstrom, who has been a Vezina candidate himself. That’s the formula. Because Vezina caliber goalies move teams all the time. Elite 1Cs spend their entire career with the team that drafted them 95% of the time.

Igor was drafted in 2013 and predates the rebuild. We didnt acquire and pay him in any wrong order. The thing we did out of order was pay a winger 11.6 million dollars 18 months into a rebuild (and a 4th RHD another 8 million, but I digress). That's why they were never bad enough to truly bottom out. That f***ed our whole rebuild when we stopped prioritizing young homegrown players because our stars wanted to win. It's got nothing to do with Igor being on the team. He was on it when we got the first overall pick in the draft lol, its just our luck the consensus wasnt a C that year.