Speculation: Roster Building Thread : Part XV (Light em up!)

NickyFotiu

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He could be the same or could be not. That’s why more advance stats come into play. SA16 has his. I like high danger chances based stats. Point is Fox could be the same player (or substantially close to) whether there’s 0 goals or 17.

High danger chances are important. I agree with you. Players also have different seasons. Some seasons their shots are better velocity than other seasons. Some seasons their accuracy is much better than other seasons. Just the amount of shots does not capture things for me. When guys are not confident in their accuracy they will often shoot it right in to the goalies chest just so they do not miss the net.

Agree
and that is why we should not ignore signs market is currently strong, I believe
What signs?
 
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NikC

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Oct 7, 2008
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This league has a restrictive hard cap that has barely moved at all in 5 years. Drury's hands were basically tied with all the NMCs, partly his own fault. As fans, we bitch all the time that as an organization they don't do all the things within their control to improve the team.

I'm not a Drury guy, but finally our GM takes an unorthodox approach to improve the team by dumping overpaid dead weight without attaching assets, nor retaining money & the fans are up in arms because we have a bunch of whiny spoiled brats that rule the locker room. I don't get it. :dunno:
no, you didn't read back enough... myself and a few others were responding RB acting like a mr. corporate, mocking Hank for tearing up when Zucarello was traded.

We all know it's a business, but whether we feel it's justified or not... these moves affect people and and it damaged the culture of this current version of the rangers...

CK, and most likely Mika aren't responding well... I think both should be moved.

I don't understand the timing of the KK move and what was returned. can't believe that a they've been eyeing a 6/7th dman all this while as a replacement for the 2OA that they gave up on...
 
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SA16

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Watching a player in person or watching on video is still watching with eyes. Now in person will give you a different view than video but they are both watching with your eyes. So do you believe it is important for a scout to watch a player with his eyes (in person or on video)?



I do not think any Ranger is untouchable but they would need a very strong offer.

Yes, but mostly just to make sure the player is healthy, you're not trading for damaged goods, and his playstyle is a fit for what the team needs.
 

NickyFotiu

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Sep 29, 2011
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Yes, he is. Maybe the most impressive of all considering he has put up those results on a team that has performed significantly worse than his other teams.

And, as I told you, his individual expected goals and shot speeds are all right in line with the rest of his career. If he was taking worse shots, or he was no longer shooting as hard, that would be reflected in the numbers.

Okay so you believe Fox is having one of the best years of his career. Thanks for answering my question.

Do your shot stats show when a guy is confidently picking the top corners of the net vs a guy who is shooting it right in to the goalies stomach?
 
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SA16

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Okay so you believe Fox is having one of the best years of his career. Thanks for answering my question.

Do your shot stats show when a guy is confidently picking the top corners of the net vs a guy who is shooting it right in to the goalies stomach?

Do publicly available ones? No.

Do others (such as Clear Sight that Vally always references)? Yes.

Do teams have that information? Certainly.
 
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NickyFotiu

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no, you didn't read back enough... myself and a few others were responding RB acting like a mr. corporate, mocking Hank for tearing up when Zucarello was traded.

Hank tearing up over Zooks is what being a real team is about. Nothing wrong with that at all. It was that closeness that helped a inferior team reach the 2014 Cup Final imo.

The NHL is a business so the level of play has to be taken in to account but I have nothing but respect for how close Hank was to Zooks as teammates.

Yes, but mostly just to make sure the player is healthy, you're not trading for damaged goods, and his playstyle is a fit for what the team needs.

I disagree BUT if you believe that doesn't that sound like more of a job for a medical professional to watch out for then scouts?
 

TGWL

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Okay so you believe Fox is having one of the best years of his career. Thanks for answering my question.

Do your shot stats show when a guy is confidently picking the top corners of the net vs a guy who is shooting it right in to the goalies stomach?
I think the biggest problem is the team can't control the puck deep enough in the zone, so when the puck comes back to Fox, he can't walk in to freeze players like he use to, because the forwards don't have to drop back as much. It's a lot harder when you get the puck at the blue line with no space. Options are pretty limited to just pass across, fire a shot, or throw it away. It's hard to address individual game with the way the team is playing.
 

SA16

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Hank tearing up over Zooks is what being a real team is about. Nothing wrong with that at all. It was that closeness that helped a inferior team reach the 2014 Cup Final imo.

The NHL is a business so the level of play has to be taken in to account but I have nothing but respect for how close Hank was to Zooks as teammates.



I disagree BUT if you believe that doesn't that sound like more of a job for a medical professional to watch out for then scouts?

No, I think a scout is capable of noticing if a players skating style or shot looks off compared to their normal level. Don't we have people here commenting on how Mika used to skate more hunched over and it helped him generate more power through the neutral zone?
 
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NikC

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Hank tearing up over Zooks is what being a real team is about. Nothing wrong with that at all. It was that closeness that helped a inferior team reach the 2014 Cup Final imo.

The NHL is a business so the level of play has to be taken in to account but I have nothing but respect for how close Hank was to Zooks as teammates.




I disagree BUT if you believe that doesn't that sound like more of a job for a medical professional to watch out for then scouts?
yeah i agree.. tell this to RB...
 
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NickyFotiu

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I think the biggest problem is the team can't control the puck deep enough in the zone, so when the puck comes back to Fox, he can't walk in to freeze players like he use to, because the forwards don't have to drop back as much. It's a lot harder when you get the puck at the blue line with no space. Options are pretty limited to just pass across, fire a shot, or throw it away. It's hard to address individual game with the way the team is playing.

That is fair and possible. Still even in the worst conditions could you ever imagine Brian Leetch having less goals than Lindy/Mancini (not counting the empty net goal).

I'm not bashing Fox. I want Fox to be the player he can be and not to settle for less.

yeah i agree.. tell this to RB...
LOL I kind of just did :D
 

bernmeister

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Jun 11, 2010
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ok I promised another bern blueprint by w'e

this is it...


Per my usual, best hope for at least 1 if not multiple cups = EXTEND the window
this means deal vets for youth, few exceptions notwithstanding.

The out of nowhere Zib meltdown has complicated things with great negative forces. Even a premium payment to remove him must be acceptably profitable to a trade partner and that is not readily visible other than gutting nyr to an intolerable degree.


1. Rs-‘nucks
Zib max 50% retained 4.25 to 4.25
for
Juulsen, Raty, Forbort, Desharnais
cap

For Rs, we are looking at 4.25 structural cap recovery. Juulsen ok bottom pair. Raty fine to add at position of need. Forbort is possible 3LD depth after selling Lindgren in separate move. Finally do VAN a solid adding the useless cooked python Desharnais.

This leaves VAN thin on bottom D depth, but that can be added easy ‘nuff, including follow up w/Rs if nec


2. NYR-LAK
Shesty 5.6+ now [ext is next season, he agrees to waive b’c Rs are a mess]
Trocheck - 5.6+
NYR 2026 1st
Jones 800k+
Vaakanainen 1.1+
ballpark cap = 13.2

for

Byfield 6.25 x 5
Helenius 800K+ elc
Clarke 800K+ elc
+ LD prospect Jakub Dvorak, elc, 870k x 3
ballpark cap = 8.5

Deal enables dumping Rittich 1m expiring, to be sold elsewhere for a 7th, or if LA prefers, Rs can take

cap dif = roughly 4.7 which is easily covered by 9.9+ cap space


Assessment:
While surrender of Byfield is a major concession, Kings win this deal, but it is still a fit for Rs. Due to surplus depth, this pivot of the future is getting time at W, I am to understand. Trocheck assume he waives b’c the band is being broken up and LA is a good landing spot w/an emerging team, is face off win % leader. So Kopitar remains 1C this season and maybe 1-2 more, w/Tro at 2C ready to challenge, pushed by Danault at 3C, and others 4C.
But elite Shesty = best NHL G right now, Ks have serious wood to acquire, and he is locked up 8 seasons after this. THAT justifies this deal. Also 2025 Rs pick may/may not be lottery, and ditto 2026 pick for presumably improved Rs club, but it is still a 1st. Vaak = good stopgap for now, and Jones is very good skater, effective puck mover. Loss of quality youth is a wince, but enough youth retained while LA upgrades team from compete to contend.

Rs add quality youth w/height and mobility. Kreider for now stays w/Byfield at pivot and we’ll see at RW, w/Gabe Perreault likely there next season. Helenius betw Edstrom LW and Rempe RW can dominate and do more than just check once playing together -> chemistry kicks in. Add a quality LD prospect and RD Clarke, highly touted but just adding mins now.
Win win, too much on the plate for either team to refuse


3. NYR-OTT
Fox 9.5 + a later NYR 2nd [like 2027]
for
Pinto 3.7, Kleven elc < 1 , Grieg also < 1 per, say an estimated 1.8-ish for both =5.5
ballpark cap dif [9.5 - 5.5] = 4, which Sens have suf cap room 6.4 +; also Rs can accept expiring cap dump [Harmonic? at 1-ish] if desired.

Assessment
Fox is 1RD top end complement w/Sanderson. This slightly thins OTT pivot, but the wince can be absorbed. Pick swap is down the road, so possible.

Rs get young D + Cs


4. Sell off surplus Lindgren at half + Bogen + Scanlin + Robertson to Avs for return of NYR 2024 2nd + a later good pick
Bogen + ballpark value = a 2nd, Lindy at half a 3rd-ish + 2 prospects for later worth a 2nd to Colorado now + a bigger pick long deferred

EDIT ADD: I erroneously traded Vaak twice. Have corrected and adjusted

5. Smith, Carrick [back to Oil ?] for highest bidder

result for now

Kreider - Byfield - Brodz/Berard
Panarin - Pinto/Grieg - Othmann
Cuylle - Chytil/Raty -
Edstrom - Helenius -Rempe

forward depth = enough there ^ but usual suspects in the A if nec

Kleven - Schneider
KAM - Clarke
Forbort- Mancini/Juulsen
marinating: Dvorak, Fortescue, Emery

usual suspects for D depth: Harpur/Mackey/Ruhwedel
Rasmus Larsson and Hank Kempf may be close enuf for cup of coffee if available


G: Garand reinforced Quick + Domingue
 
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SA16

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Aug 25, 2006
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That is fair and possible. Still even in the worst conditions could you ever imagine Brian Leetch having less goals than Lindy/Mancini (not counting the empty net goal).

I'm not bashing Fox. I want Fox to be the player he can be and not to settle for less.


LOL I kind of just did :D

Is it that hard to imagine though? Leetch had a 26 game stretch in 89-90 where he scored one goal and a 30 game stretch with 0 5v5 goals.
 
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UnparalledPark

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Jun 15, 2022
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There's no scenario in which the player's behavior and performance is acceptable. The only reason people are excusing Kreider are because of their personal feelings. I like Kreider too but a 34 year old PP/PK specialist taking ice time from our 2 best young forwards who happen to play the same position, is not moving this team forward.



The player's had to know changes were coming after losing to Florida. If they gave Goodrow an hour's notice, instead of 15 minutes, are all the bad feelings avoided? I doubt it. They were going to pout regardless.
They had to know change was coming because they finished 29th out of 32 teams? You and Drury have very high standards. And the similarities apparently don’t stop there.
 

UnparalledPark

Registered User
Jun 15, 2022
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Boo hoo. As I've said previously, you want to stay here, play better.

These guys are still mourning over Tuba...give me a f***ing break. Drury went half measure by stopping at Goodrow in the summer & he nuked the entire season by letting it fester & then waiting 25 games to finally do what should've been done in July.

And after all that he still did the decent thing & let that f***ing entitled whiny crybaby have a voice in where he wound up. Poor baby got his full salary & a new place in Sunny So Cal, THE HORROR!!! Yet the rest of the locker room is still seething over the "in-justice". How anyone in their right mind can argue we don't have a culture problem is mind blowing.
I’m confused as to whom the whiny cry baby is relating to this post.
 

NickyFotiu

NYR 2024 Cup Champs!
Sep 29, 2011
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Is it that hard to imagine though? Leetch had a 26 game stretch in 89-90 where he scored one goal and a 30 game stretch with 0 5v5 goals.

Yes it is very hard to imagine Leetch scoring less goals than Lindy/Mancini. That is why I think out of 18 year career you probably just picked the worst stretch you could find. How many goals did he end up with in that season?
 

UnparalledPark

Registered User
Jun 15, 2022
170
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I mean if you watch the games, this team is playing like shit. This isn’t treating players badly. Some of these guys are total liabilities and not playing to their contracts. Players get traded all the time. It’s part of the deal. If any of these guys were remotely playing to their contracts they wouldn’t have to worry about getting shipped out.
You mean like Buch, Zuch and others.

The culture problem is so obvious and runs so deep Im worried that some of our young players may be tainted by it if we dont trade the problem children very soon.
If the young players are so easily tainted, maybe they should be sent packing. It’s not like any of them are stepping up to fill the void except Cullye.
 

NickyFotiu

NYR 2024 Cup Champs!
Sep 29, 2011
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Tuba. The only one who was shipped to So Cal, complaining on the way out.
That is a significant point. For all the rumors going around Trouba is really the only one that did that publicly. I didn't think KKs statement was a big deal after I saw it in full context.
 

RangerBoy

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no, you didn't read back enough... myself and a few others were responding RB acting like a mr. corporate, mocking Hank for tearing up when Zucarello was traded.

We all know it's a business, but whether we feel it's justified or not... these moves affect people and and it damaged the culture of this current version of the rangers...

CK, and most likely Mika aren't responding well... I think both should be moved.

I don't understand the timing of the KK move and what was returned. can't believe that a they've been eyeing a 6/7th dman all this while as a replacement for the 2OA that they gave up on...
Vegas punted so many players since they entered the NHL in 2017. TB threatened to place McD on waivers if he did not accept a trade to Nashville. Trucker is back in Tampa. He was annoyed by Tampa's tactics. The other players on TB did not go on strike.
 

Bruner4329

Registered User
Apr 24, 2016
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There's no scenario in which the player's behavior and performance is acceptable. The only reason people are excusing Kreider are because of their personal feelings. I like Kreider too but a 34 year old PP/PK specialist taking ice time from our 2 best young forwards who happen to play the same position, is not moving this team forward.

There's no scenario in which the player's behavior and performance is acceptable. The only reason people are excusing Kreider are because of their personal feelings. I like Kreider too but a 34 year old PP/PK specialist taking ice time from our 2 best young forwards who happen to play the same position, is not moving this team forward.



The player's had to know changes were coming after losing to Florida. If they gave Goodrow an hour's notice, instead of 15 minutes, are all the bad feelings avoided? I doubt it. They were going to pout regardless.
So who are these 2 best forwards. Last I looked no one was playing good.
 

deathb4disco

Registered User
Oct 19, 2010
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Duluth GA
One year after sending the letter, we gave Panarin 11.6 mil and Trouba 8 mil. Rebuilding teams don't spend that kind of money to add players.

Those moves were certainly part of the reason we got back to the playoffs so quickly, but they are also part of the reason we are in the situation we are now. More than anything, it just demonstrates this organization's lack of patience.
I think Panarin was a good move and Gorton was looking for his Chara in NY when he signed Trouba. If Trouba performs up to his contract we probably have a cup and he's still here. We also thought some of our #1 picks would be playing bigger roles but the scouting under Gorton was very hit or miss.
 

TheDirtyH

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Jul 5, 2013
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Yes it is very hard to imagine Leetch scoring less goals than Lindy/Mancini. That is why I think out of 18 year career you probably just picked the worst stretch you could find. How many goals did he end up with in that season?
You keep coming back to 0 goals. How many goals do you think Fox should have right now? What number would qualify him for having a good season in your eyes? And how many points in the standings do you imagine that number of goals gaining us from where we are now?
 

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