Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLIV

[FIRE DRURY]

Probably not but if Toronto retained some money? Maybe they’d take Smith as a return and the team has liked Zaitsev for a while.

I don’t think he was as bad as the Toronto fans make us all believe

He was horrible last year. He was an offensive dmen who signed a big contract and didn’t produce on a team where Helen Keller could have produced.

It’s crazy how a player can be completely different on the ice in just a matter of months. He really struggled last year and his contract makes Skjei’s look like a steal.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Booby Mac says Buffalo is closing in on signing Jeff Skinner to an 8 year, $72 million contract.

Yowie Wowie.

Gets traded for scraps
Signs billion year/billion dollar contract a ~year later

Okay NHL

 

[Beacon]

as I’ve said I believe the only way to operate the team is as if the youth will develop as planned.

That is literally the worst way to do it. You draft/acquire too many guys per position so when 1 busts, as he will, you still have the other 1.

You assume everyone hits their ceiling, which will never happen and you'll be wrong in your planning. I know you didn't write that you expect the ceiling, but that is literally the expectation every time. Every first rounder is projected to be among the 3-5 best for their draft spot since the draft began.

You know how off our projections are? I'm probably the most pessimistic poster here when it comes to prospects, yet 100% of the time when I was wrong, it was because I viewed our prospect too optimistically. Yeah, it's that bad with exaggerating prospects.

If you want realistic projections, assume that 1 in 3 guys drafted in the 8-12 range will be actual valuable NHLers. Then go from there.

 

[Beacon]

i propose we embrace #TheVision, take on some bad one year contracts (Callahan, Marleau) and give the young guys ice.

Sucking for one more year to get a REALLY good draft pick in a REALLY good draft year is a fair trade off. 2020 draft is one of the best in a long time, so lets get 1 more elite talent to complement kravtsov/kakko

If the argument to acquire a vet to help the youth was genuine, Callahan would be the type of guy people would call for: someone who made it by understanding the game and working hard, someone with tons of playoff experience, a former Captain. Players don't need to be current superstars to help the youth. Kevin Lowe helped Zubov despite older legs and less talent because wisdom matters. Mactavish was very important in leading the youth despite being a role player and a faceoff specialist when he got here.

Instead, let's go get a guy who wants to live in Miami by giving him a crazy contract. It's nothing more than the desire to be 10th in the East instead of 15th.

 

[Beacon]

JD won’t let Gorton sit on his hands all summer like he did last year. Moves will be made here and soon. Shattenkirk is a goner. Namestnikov and Vesey most likely as well.

Names and Vesey will have more value next February. Shatty in February 2021.

 

[Ola]

I'm not interested in trading for a rental. He would not come cheaply. Some teams may be willing to go the rental route but I don't see that as an option for the Rangers. Similarly, there are teams that might trade for Kreider as a rental (Arizona is one) but others would not.

Ah, yeah, sorry I misunderstood you. Thought that you meant that he wasn't willing to resign for longer than 1 year with anyone that traded for him but instead was deadset at getting to July 1 next summer.

I agree for sure, I wouldn't count on everyone being interested to coming to us. When we played in an attractive market AND had a good team the exceptions were few and far between. I don't think the notion out there is that we will suck for 10 more years, but there will definitely be players that has been through rebuilds before and -- when they get a choice -- will opt for teams that already are contenders.

 

[Ola]

Names and Vesey will have more value next February. Shatty in February 2021.

In relation to Shatty I think we must define more. The use of "will have" in relation to him is also misleading.

Option 1: I believe that the starting point is that we can deal Shatty today (i) if we retain 50% and (ii) take back a Belesky type of contract. Brooks has reported just that too. If we did that, could we get something more? Who knows, maybe some suspect prospect or a later pick.

Option 2: So what can we get for Shatty in 1.5 seasons? First of all, his curve his heading downwards in a steep direction. He is a vet that has had injury problems. His production is nose diving and he hasn't been impressive on the ice. We are a rebuilding team, its tough to play for this team as a defender. For him to be tradeable at all in 2021 he must be healthy. He must have performed somewhat right before that time. Second of all, which teams might have interest in him going into that season? I don't think it will be the top contenders. I don't think they recognize Shatty as a potential work horse on a Cup winners. I think it will be those teams that has an OK young group but want a RHS for the PP to let everyone play their role, and so that they don't have to adjust to playing with a LHS on the point which can get you really bad results, and without a producing PP kids can lose confidence and so forth. I definitely think Shatty -- if he is tradable at all which is a huge question mark, he could definitely get into Richards, Redden and co territory -- at that point would return less than Zucc did. A 3rd and a 4th? Conditional to become a 2nd?

Its certainly not impossible that Shatty would have -- less -- value in 2021 than he does now. It would be very rare for a vet like him to turn a curve heading downwards around to even be flat for 1.5 years.

Comparing Option 1 vs Option 2: We now have 4 RDs in contention for a spot on opening night. Shatty, TDA, Fox and Pionk. Those 4 should preferably be complimented with a 5th RHS guy with some size that can PK and take pure defensive shifts. Right? TDA, Fox and Pionk is -- fully -- capable of sharing the PP assignment for us. In fact, getting that opportunity would be great for them and their development. Its there they can shine and build up confidence. Build a platform. Its also in that capacity we want them to train in game situations, so that they are ready for it when we shall start to contend. Right? Keeping Shatty around and being forced to give DQ orders to play him on the PP so that 'he can build up his value' is certainly negative for the kids development.

What impact does it have from a cap perspective if we deal him now and retains and take back a bad contract vs doing the same in 2021? None, absolutely zero negative affect. We either have 6.6m of totally dead weight on the cap due to Shatty until February 2021 when we deal him or we have the same amount of dead-weight on the cap related to the retention and bad contract we took back if we deal him. Zero upside in keeping him from this perspective.

I just think that it should be a -- very -- easy decision to make.

 

[pld459666]

I think this is overstated. He's missed significant injury time once in the last 4 years.

Sorry, but anyone that has missed 15+ games in 4 of 6 seasons in the NHL is a concern

Two of those years he missed 20+ games.

He's a solid player, but not reliable to stay in the line up and any contract should reflect that

 

[SA16]

Once Babcock fully instituted his system, Zaitsev’s offense fell off a cliff. He’s much more an offensive player than a shutdown defenseman. If he produced like he did earlier in his career, his contract would be very reasonable. Someone will take a flyer, but probably not the Rangers.

His production early in his career was that he got 164 minutes on the PP his first year and has 20 minutes combined the last two.

 

[Ola]

Gets traded for scraps
Signs billion year/billion dollar contract a ~year later

Okay NHL

The approach many players have where they only show up for their contract years is not only new, its also totally accepted in today's NHL. Its not even seen as odd when someone like Rick Nash calls an upcoming season very important for him since its a contract year and describes how he has prepared himself for it much better than usual.

When I started participating in the online community around the Rangers in the late 90's, it was quite common that Europeans were seen with some skepticism. Were they really interested in winning as much as the NA players? Were they willing to sacrifice as much? I probably still have a bit of a torn in the side from that, but I try to never give expression to it since this just isn't the case anymore at all. You see the odd comment here and there -- but I myself is guilty of it to the exact same extent in relation to other Europeans, and they towards Swedes too I imagine.

With that said, I do think I unconsciously pay attention to potential arguments to be used in this context. So take this for what it is, i.e. something I don't really mean or think, a thought that pops up at times, and in an area where there are all kinds of room for confirmation bias and what not -- but sometimes it seem like more and more NA players are becoming real contract year players. With Europeans its like its the opposite, they can't handle the pressure during a contract year and produces less. While many NA guys seem to really recharge their batteries and apply themselves tremendously every contract year. With guys like Evander Kane or Skinner or Brendan Smith and co, its like something we take for granted and that its reasonable to expect them to play a lot better their contract year than before or after that. Its not even strange. A player can't be criticized for it, its only normal that they play better their contract year than before or after it. Why wouldn't they?

I personally get really pissed when I hear the contract year argument being brought up. WTF is that? If a player even breaths that he will prepare himself harder for a contract year like Nash did -- his contract should be terminated immediately and he should be sued to pay back every effin cent he has made on his previous contract. He is under the same obligation to show up and perform to the best of his ability every season we pay him for.

 

[Avery16]

He was horrible last year. He was an offensive dmen who signed a big contract and didn’t produce on a team where Helen Keller could have produced.

It’s crazy how a player can be completely different on the ice in just a matter of months. He really struggled last year and his contract makes Skjei’s look like a steal.

What accounts for this? Is it likely that Zaitsev has regressed in development? Unlikely. Zaitsev is cruising after signing a multiyear deal as a top-4. This is my fear with Panarin, who has always been playing for his big deal. What happens when he's locked down for 7 years?

 

[Tawnos]

Sorry, but anyone that has missed 15+ games in 4 of 6 seasons in the NHL is a concern

Two of those years he missed 20+ games.

He's a solid player, but not reliable to stay in the line up and any contract should reflect that

Again, one of those years was a hold out and suspension, not an injury. Two others were the first two years in the league. My statement is accurate.

 

[Ola]

His production early in his career was that he got 164 minutes on the PP his first year and has 20 minutes combined the last two.

Exactly!

One thing remains to be seen though -- trading for Zaitsev means that you are making Toronto a big favor, they need to clear cap-space. There will be many teams out there wanting to rid themselves of contracts this summer. Will there be enough favors out there to pass around? I have often made the argument that if you lock up a young player for all his prime years, you just take little risk of regretting it. That player should be tradeable. But is this really the case? We will see with Zaitsev this summer. Can he be moved?

 

[pld459666]

Personally, I would rather go with Pionk as a shut-down D on the right side until we can find someone at a better value than Trouba -- unless we could get him on very favorable terms.

Pionk and shutdown D are really not compatible.

 

[pld459666]

Again, one of those years was a hold out and suspension, not an injury. Two others were the first two years in the league. My statement is accurate.

Ok, so half of his career hes missed 15+ games due to injuries

That doesn't make him any more reliable

 

[Edge]

Again, one of those years was a hold out and suspension, not an injury. Two others were the first two years in the league. My statement is accurate.

I can’t help but feel that even if we take one of those years out, it’s at least something to have on the radar.

We’re still talking about 33 percent of his NHL seasons.

 

[SA16]

Again, one of those years was a hold out and suspension, not an injury. Two others were the first two years in the league. My statement is accurate.

Yea he's had one major injury the last four years (missed 20 games with an ankle injury). I'd hardly call that debilitating.

 

[Ola]

Pionk and shutdown D are really not compatible.

Definitely, still Pionk is the only one of our Ds that has stepped up and been willing to assume that role. Shatty certainly hasn’t. It’s not an option to send out Shatty to play against AO and co on a nightly basis. He would play his style and try to accomplish other things than what is needed from a D in that role.

 

[egelband]

In relation to Shatty I think we must define more. The use of "will have" in relation to him is also misleading.

Option 1: I believe that the starting point is that we can deal Shatty today (i) if we retain 50% and (ii) take back a Belesky type of contract. Brooks has reported just that too. If we did that, could we get something more? Who knows, maybe some suspect prospect or a later pick.

Option 2: So what can we get for Shatty in 1.5 seasons? First of all, his curve his heading downwards in a steep direction. He is a vet that has had injury problems. His production is nose diving and he hasn't been impressive on the ice. We are a rebuilding team, its tough to play for this team as a defender. For him to be tradeable at all in 2021 he must be healthy. He must have performed somewhat right before that time. Second of all, which teams might have interest in him going into that season? I don't think it will be the top contenders. I don't think they recognize Shatty as a potential work horse on a Cup winners. I think it will be those teams that has an OK young group but want a RHS for the PP to let everyone play their role, and so that they don't have to adjust to playing with a LHS on the point which can get you really bad results, and without a producing PP kids can lose confidence and so forth. I definitely think Shatty -- if he is tradable at all which is a huge question mark, he could definitely get into Richards, Redden and co territory -- at that point would return less than Zucc did. A 3rd and a 4th? Conditional to become a 2nd?

Its certainly not impossible that Shatty would have -- less -- value in 2021 than he does now. It would be very rare for a vet like him to turn a curve heading downwards around to even be flat for 1.5 years.

Comparing Option 1 vs Option 2: We now have 4 RDs in contention for a spot on opening night. Shatty, TDA, Fox and Pionk. Those 4 should preferably be complimented with a 5th RHS guy with some size that can PK and take pure defensive shifts. Right? TDA, Fox and Pionk is -- fully -- capable of sharing the PP assignment for us. In fact, getting that opportunity would be great for them and their development. Its there they can shine and build up confidence. Build a platform. Its also in that capacity we want them to train in game situations, so that they are ready for it when we shall start to contend. Right? Keeping Shatty around and being forced to give DQ orders to play him on the PP so that 'he can build up his value' is certainly negative for the kids development.

What impact does it have from a cap perspective if we deal him now and retains and take back a bad contract vs doing the same in 2021? None, absolutely zero negative affect. We either have 6.6m of totally dead weight on the cap due to Shatty until February 2021 when we deal him or we have the same amount of dead-weight on the cap related to the retention and bad contract we took back if we deal him. Zero upside in keeping him from this perspective.

I just think that it should be a -- very -- easy decision to make.

I think the best move is to let him play out his contact. I may be Pollyanna but I think he builds back up some value. The team isn't contending and has no cap worries. The only downside is that he interferes with another player's development. But even that is yet to be seen. If I'm the rangers I give him 30-40 games. See what happenes. Worst case, you get rid of Shatty and bring up Fox.

 

[NYRKing]

Feels like every year we enter with the logjam at D and it appears two players will definitely be moved! People forget, one injury to those eight and one player squeezed for a minor stint prior to the deadline works this out. Also funny that people think ADA and Pionk may be the one/two looking from the outside! For better or worse, I think the staff has a long-term view of both and they perhaps have the MOST security out of the group:

Skjei - Locked-up
Staal- Going nowhere with his contract
ADA- 23, cost controlled, showed progressions
Pionk- They were extremely high on him prior to the season, and despite struggles on a bad team, I believe opinions are very high
Shatty - There are rumors, so we have smoke and maybe fire. But, he only has two year left in his prime, there's no rush to move him unless a deal makes sens
Fox - Whether he starts in the minors or not he will eventually be playing with the club barring something unforeseen. You don't make this trade for a player pining to get his shot without knowing he's getting the opportunity
Smith- Imo he's number 6/7 right now though we all can't wait to say bye bye. Honestly I can see him playing great in camp, losing weight etc. etc. and the staff using him to push the newcomers including Fox.

Hajek/Rykov/lindgren - Need to have great camps to make the team. They're fighting with Fox for last spot, and I don't see any reason to have them as the 7th D.

 

[Edge]

I am kind of curious to see what would happen if for some reason Trouba misses significant time this season.

 

[NernieBichols]

Gets traded for scraps
Signs billion year/billion dollar contract a ~year later

Okay NHL

He got traded for scraps bc he had full NMC and he had targeted buffalo as his landing spot. Very unusual, but this shows how smart a decision it was by him and his agent. I think he’s from nearby, saw a chance to play with Eichel long term and knew the sabres were obviously interested in signing him long term. Home run of a decision and season for skinner. If he stays healthy he’ll be good for 35g 65-70 pts playing next to Eichel. A ton of cash for it, but what good is the cap space if you can’t get good players to accept your money and contract offers

 

[NernieBichols]

I think trouba had Odell Beckham-itis

Meaning early on when he was disgruntled and wanted out of Winnipeg, I think he probably sat himself for precaution things. (Odell wasnt disgruntled, he was just one of those skill players who takes off practice for everything and the coach lets them bc of Saturday’s/Sunday, anybody who’s ever played football on a team knows the type. Some players learn that they are so much better than the alternatives that the coaches will hold them to different rules and these softer cats would milk a hammy or this or that to not practice all week and boom come gametime, coach has him out there)

Trouba seems to have gotten over that whole hump when he signed the most recent 2 year deal and has been nothing but professional ever since. That’s my read on the situation.

But I also maybe have watched trouba play 50 games total and haven’t locked on him, so what do I really know other than what everyone else hears and says about him

 

[Trxjw]

I don't think the Skinner deal is that far off from market value. Plus when you find a guy who meshes that well with your star player it's worth the extra few hundred thousand a year to keep him on Eichel's wing.

 

[NernieBichols]

I don't think the Skinner deal is that far off from market value. Plus when you find a guy who meshes that well with your star player it's worth the extra few hundred thousand a year to keep him on Eichel's wing.

That contract has to eat at these top end guys who sign long term deals a long time ago. Skinner makes nearly as much as Crosby, malkin, Ovechkin and backstrom.

My man whiskey over at RR2.0 is ahead of the game. He thinks top players should go the NBA route and sign short term deals and constantly re-up based on the rising cap.