Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLIII

[GoAwayPanarin]

I wonder if this Blues run starts a trend around the league of drafting bigger d-men. Bigger, mobile, puck moving d-men.

IF it does, Seider may have just found himself in the top 10.

Also, we should get even more stoked about K'Andre. Parayko is a very realistic comp for him.

 

[bobbop]

Interesting read on Trouba from the Winnipeg Sun.

WIEBE: Where does Trouba land? Jets must explore all options

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Probably will get run out of the thread but I would trade Kreider as a rental before I resigned him for a 6-8 year deal.

 

[Calad]

Kreider re-signing 6 years @ $6 million aav.

Its a fair deal for both sides.

His body can hold up to age 34 and therefore his speed and physicality will still be there. Marleau and Cole are people I see Kreider being able to replicate in terms of durability into his 30s.

Evander Kane got 7x7 from SJ pretty easily and he isn't even quite as productive as Kreider is, nevermind the defensive side of the game. Kreider will get at least that, if not more in UFA. Unless he's happy to take a hometown discount I don't see that happening.

 

[Ola]

I wonder if this Blues run starts a trend around the league of drafting bigger d-men. Bigger, mobile, puck moving d-men.

It will and it should. Yzerman has been on it in Tampa. I’ve seen a very clear trend of it in Sweden. I’ve posted about it several times over the years. Everyone must not be big, but you must have a few that can play defense and can play PK etc.

 

[NYRKING30]

I wonder if this Blues run starts a trend around the league of drafting bigger d-men. Bigger, mobile, puck moving d-men.

You mean a time machine back to 2012-2015? At least that's all we heard from the media it felt like. I think they are just seizing the opportunity in a down year for the West. Anyway, we do need more size on the back end as I think its better to have a more balanced back end in the size department.

 

[Ola]

Evander Kane got 7x7 from SJ pretty easily and he isn't even quite as productive as Kreider is, nevermind the defensive side of the game. Kreider will get at least that, if not more in UFA. Unless he's happy to take a hometown discount I don't see that happening.

OTOH look at what a Cam Atkinson took in CBJ on the eve of becoming an UFA. His record beats Kreider by a pretty big margin.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Disagree on your take on Chicago/Toronto but agree with you that we may have to turn the corner soon.

What else could Toronto have done? They bottomed out and got the number 4 pick (Marner) in '15 and the number 1 pick (Matthews) in '16. They both entered the league in '16-17 with their ELC's expiring after '18-19. How easy do you think it is turn your team from a last place squad to a contender in a 3 year window? They did what they could. Top pair defensemen and top line forwards don't grow on trees, and teams certainly aren't lining up to give them away. They gave Marleau a three year over-35 contract when they knew the last year would be brutal, but they did it to get him on the team and worried about it later. They got Tavares when he became available. This was their year to go for it and they did. They acquired Muzzin for a first and decent prospects. How much earlier could they have gone for it? Who were they acquiring and at what cost? Toronto quite possibly wins the cup this year if they didn't blow a 3-2 series lead to Boston.

The problem the Leafs are now facing, which is completely different from the Blackhawks situation in the summer of 2010, is how bloated the second contract has become for star players. The Blackhawks won their first cup in 2010 when Kane and Toews were on the last year of their ELC. Both then signed identical 5 year deals at $6.3M per. They went on to win the cup again in 2013 and 2015 before then both receiving 8 year deals at $10.5 per. Chicago had 8 years of Kane and Toews, in their prime, to work with before they had to pay them $10M+.

Matthews will be getting $11M+ next year, only his 4th season in the league. Marner most likely will command close to $10M, if not more. The second contracts are out of control now which forces teams' windows to be much, much sooner.

Do I think the Rangers should go after Panarin, Karlsson, etc? No, I don't. But I will fully understand if Gorton and company try to go for it with Henrik still on board for two years and Kakko/Kravtsov/Fox/etc etc all on ELC's.

Toronto had cap space and extra assets to go for it the last two years. They didn't and now they are hard against the cap. They missed a huge opportunity in the 17-18 season. They will never be able to do that again with 4 players taking up almost half the cap. Even getting mcdonagh at 4.5 for two playoff runs would have been a really smart move for them. The reason they never made the next step wasnt because Matthew's marner etc werent ready it was because they didn't want to trade the kapanens and Johnson's to get the help they needed. The window was there they just never took advantage of it.
Chicago won their cups before the big pay days arrived. I don't think we are going to see bridge deals for star players anymore. Kravtsov and Kappo if they get to where they should will be signing long term deals after their entry deals much like Nylander Matthews Draisaitl eichel etc. Cap hell starts much earlier these days.

 

[RGY]

Evander Kane got 7x7 from SJ pretty easily and he isn't even quite as productive as Kreider is, nevermind the defensive side of the game. Kreider will get at least that, if not more in UFA. Unless he's happy to take a hometown discount I don't see that happening.

I mean he is not more productive.

Kane is a .63 PPG player in his career.

Kreider is a .58 PPG player in his career.

Kreider is a year older and has played less games.

He is also signing his contract at age 28 and Kane signed his at age 26. That plays a factor.

He should not be getting Kane money.

 

[Vitto79]

This Karlsson talk scares me because of term

If they do it they are trading DeAngelo for a more defensive Dman for sure

 

[Beacon]

Assuming Kreider traded and we signed Panarin.
Top 6:
Panarin. Zibby. Buch.
Kravstov. Chityl. Kakko.
Too soft? Lots of skill.
Strome could slot in if Chityl struggles.

They are not running a whole third line of teenagers, much less a whole second line. Every summer we have projections of 3-5 rookies in the top 6 forwards and top 4 defensemen, and it never once happened. Rookies take time to develop.

Just as you have doubts about Chytil now that you saw him in the NHL, a year from now you'll have all the same doubts about Kravtsov, but today he's set to be in the top 6 immediately because, frankly, nobody actually knows what he will do, just presume the most optimistic scenario.

 

[RGY]

Hagelin would be a nice addition to the 3rd line if we are to move out Vesey and/or Nams at the draft or leading up to free agency.

 

[haohmaru]

Probably will get run out of the thread but I would trade Kreider as a rental before I resigned him for a 6-8 year deal.

Kreider + 20OA for Trouba assuming we can talk to Trouba beforehand and negotiate a 5 year deal agreed to in principal.

Or, Kreider for 1st + to whoever wants him. I like Kreider, but I like him a lot less at 7 x 6.5M or whatever it's going to take to get him in the barn for the next __ years.

 

[Beacon]

I'd really love to know who Gorton is viewing as pieces that he believes can actively contribute to what they're building now for next season, as well as for what they're building for the future in the upcoming years. I think he's trying to figure out who his next Zibanejad acquisition can be, and they definitely have the capital to make a move for that piece. Like we keep saying, at some point, they'll have to identify and prioritize quality over quantity.

The Rangers acquired Zibanejad as a 23 year old for an older guy. They didn't get him by throwing UFA money at a vet and outbidding everyone else, nor by surrendering young assets for older ones.

The Brassard for Zibanejad trade is more akin to trading Kreider for Nylander than signing Panarin. If we could pull Kreider for Nylander, I'm all for it, I just highly, highly doubt it.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

The Rangers acquired Zibanejad as a 23 year old for an older guy. They didn't get him by throwing UFA money at a vet and outbidding everyone else, nor by surrendering young assets for older ones.

The Brassard for Zibanejad trade is more akin to trading Kreider for Nylander than signing Panarin. If we could pull Kreider for Nylander, I'm all for it, I just highly, highly doubt it.

It could actually work for Toronto. If we retain 50% on Kreider, they would save almost 5m in cap space while replacing Nylander with Kreider. When Marleau comes off the books in 2020, they can use that to sign Kreider to an extension.

It would fix their cap issues for the coming season without gutting their team.

 

[Beacon]

It could actually work for Toronto. If we retain 50% on Kreider, they would save almost 5m in cap space while replacing Nylander with Kreider. When Marleau comes off the books in 2020, they can use that to sign Kreider to an extension.

It would fix their cap issues for the coming season without gutting their team.

The value is just not there. Nylander is 5 years younger and at least as good. The cap works, not much more.

 

[Beacon]

If you can turn the 20 and Buch into Trouba signed longterm do you do it ?

How do we know that's what we need? Maybe ADA and Fox both turn into first pair RD? Or at least one is very realistic. So we will be stuck with too many RDs and a shortage of top-6 forwards?

Despite the instant gratification crowd wanting to rush things so we could come close to (but still probably not make) the playoffs this season, we are still in Phase 1: Asset Accumulation. F-up Phase 1, and nothing else matters for a decade or more.

 

[haohmaru]

How do we know that's what we need? Maybe ADA and Fox both turn into first pair RD? Or at least one is very realistic. So we will be stuck with too many RDs and a shortage of top-6 forwards?

Despite the instant gratification crowd wanting to rush things so we could come close to (but still probably not make) the playoffs this season, we are still in Phase 1: Asset Accumulation. F-up Phase 1, and nothing else matters for a decade or more.

"Stuck with too many RD's" for a pessimist, or realist, like you is funny to read.

If that were to become a "problem" there would be 30/31 other teams in the league looking to trade for that extra RD that we have and probably command a premium. I'll take it.

 

[Beacon]

Is it that simple though? Yes, the state of our defense undoubtedly prohibits us from competing next year (and probably for another 2). However, it looks somewhat promising once we move past that and fits the timeline quite well in that sense.

ADA, Fox, Hajek, Lindgren, Rykov are all on the cusp of being NHL ready (surely not all will pan out, but that's 5 right on the doorstep). Miller, Lundkvist, Keane, etc...are a few years off, but represent strong prospects.

Buch and whoever we draft at 20 would strengthen that squad down the line, whereas Trouba, who has quite a sketchy injury history, is not necessarily a sure thing.

It's an interesting proposal, but I'd probably pass and see what opportunities arise in 2 years if one of our guys doesn't emerge as a top pairing guy.

Don't you understand that trading for Trouba is a once in a lifetime opportunity that will never be possible ever again? This is the summer to fix all our problems at once with vets because nature will never have a summer again.

 

[Beacon]

Whoever we draft at 20 may not even make the NHL, much less become a top 4 Dman.

It's fine to not want Trouba, but this is crazy.

True, but get enough of these guys and someone makes it. If in 30 days we have ADA, Fox, Pionk, Lundkvist, Keane and Seider, I think it is realistic that in a few years we get a 1RD and 2RD (but also a few busts) out of it.

 

[kovazub94]

The question to me is how you define 1RD. Sure someone from our RD pool could turn into a fine offensive defenseman but the reality is that they’re all smurfs and will be pounded into submission during a playoff run, if not sooner then later. To me this is not what a team with SC aspirations needs from 1RD.

 

[Beacon]

He did say he was trying to "trade players" in a recent interview, so that comment holds water. Then again, he also said every player can't be 18 yrs old and at some point they will look to trade prospects or assets for a player or something along those lines.

If Kreider goes in a similar trade to Hayes, it's not going to result in an all-teen lineup. You get a 22-23 year old third liner plus a first round pick. No rookies get added to the lineup, but you do get younger and add a future asset.

Even if you trade Kreider for a first and second, still just 1 spot.

Names Zibanejad Butcher
Kakko Chytil Strome
Kravtsov Lias Lemieux
Vesey Howden Fast
* Nieves
(This can be changed depending on chemistry.)

Even without Kreider or a replacement for him, there's no overload of youth pushed into spots they can't handle or too many kids playing together.

 

[aufheben]

The Rangers acquired Zibanejad as a 23 year old for an older guy. They didn't get him by throwing UFA money at a vet and outbidding everyone else, nor by surrendering young assets for older ones.

The Brassard for Zibanejad trade is more akin to trading Kreider for Nylander than signing Panarin. If we could pull Kreider for Nylander, I'm all for it, I just highly, highly doubt it.

They kind of did, though, lol.

 

[GAGLine]

This Karlsson talk scares me because of term

If they do it they are trading DeAngelo for a more defensive Dman for sure

There is nearly zero chance that Karlsson will be a Ranger.

 

[RangerBoy]

Disagree on your take on Chicago/Toronto but agree with you that we may have to turn the corner soon.

What else could Toronto have done? They bottomed out and got the number 4 pick (Marner) in '15 and the number 1 pick (Matthews) in '16. They both entered the league in '16-17 with their ELC's expiring after '18-19. How easy do you think it is turn your team from a last place squad to a contender in a 3 year window? They did what they could. Top pair defensemen and top line forwards don't grow on trees, and teams certainly aren't lining up to give them away. They gave Marleau a three year over-35 contract when they knew the last year would be brutal, but they did it to get him on the team and worried about it later. They got Tavares when he became available. This was their year to go for it and they did. They acquired Muzzin for a first and decent prospects. How much earlier could they have gone for it? Who were they acquiring and at what cost? Toronto quite possibly wins the cup this year if they didn't blow a 3-2 series lead to Boston.

The problem the Leafs are now facing, which is completely different from the Blackhawks situation in the summer of 2010, is how bloated the second contract has become for star players. The Blackhawks won their first cup in 2010 when Kane and Toews were on the last year of their ELC. Both then signed identical 5 year deals at $6.3M per. They went on to win the cup again in 2013 and 2015 before then both receiving 8 year deals at $10.5 per. Chicago had 8 years of Kane and Toews, in their prime, to work with before they had to pay them $10M+.

Matthews will be getting $11M+ next year, only his 4th season in the league. Marner most likely will command close to $10M, if not more. The second contracts are out of control now which forces teams' windows to be much, much sooner.

Do I think the Rangers should go after Panarin, Karlsson, etc? No, I don't. But I will fully understand if Gorton and company try to go for it with Henrik still on board for two years and Kakko/Kravtsov/Fox/etc etc all on ELC's.

Lundqvist isn’t even the better goaltender on his own team. The Rangers aren’t worrying about Hank. The rebuild is starting to get to Hank. Two weeks ago, he questioned the Rangers commitment to him. He wants them to bring in certain players. Lundqvist isn’t going to be on the next great Rangers team. He will be back in Sweden. He knows that too.

Those young guys are all babies. By the time those guys figure out the NHL, Lundqvist’s contract will have expired.