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Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLII Time for Curtis Lazar?

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If the Rangers want Fast back, and he wants to be back, and the demands are reasonable, and the Rangers still can't afford to, that's a shame. And kind of a black mark on the system. I think it should be possible to keep a homegrown guy around who's not asking for the moon. I think @Amazing Kreiderman and others have suggested a cap credit of some sort for homegrown guys. I'm know it's complex and there are obviously arguments against it. But in a case like this it shouldn't be so crazy to keep Fast. Maybe they could calculate a league-average contract and give a credit or deduction from the cap for homegrowns based around that. Even 10-20% could make a huge difference.
 
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egelband said:
If the Rangers want Fast back, and he wants to be back, and the demands are reasonable, and the Rangers still can't afford to, that's a shame. And kind of a black mark on the system. I think it should be possible to keep a homegrown guy around who's not asking for the moon. I think @Amazing Kreiderman and others have suggested a cap credit of some sort for homegrown guys. I'm know it's complex and there are obviously arguments against it. But in a case like this it shouldn't be so crazy to keep Fast. Maybe they could calculate a league-average contract and give a credit or deduction from the cap for homegrowns based around that. Even 10-20% could make a huge difference.
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My proposal was the following:

- A homegrown player qualifies for a 5% cap hit discount for each year after the ELC he is on the team, with a max of 25%
- A homegrown player is a player drafted by the team and has not been part of other organizations since
- Once a player moves, his contract is no longer eligible for a discount

This set up emphasizes building through the draft. Let's take Barkov for instance. When he hits his UFA status, he gets to negotiate with different teams. Florida can offer him 12m AAV with only an 8m cap hit. It gives teams a better chance at keeping their team together and competing for a cup while it incentivizes loyalty by a player
 
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Seeking some clarity with regard to the lottery on June 26th:

I'm just confused as to how it will all look like so maybe someone can fill in the gaps for me. I imagine that Bill Daly will reveal the order much like he's done in the past. Hypothetically, say at pick 8, it's revealed that "pick 8 will belong to Qualifying Team A" i.e. a playoff team qualifying round loser. And say a few minutes later he states that "Qualifying Team B will pick first overall."

And then in a few weeks, Phase 2 will happen, which will determine the teams who now pick first and eighth, right? In the above scenario, does each qualifying round loser have an equal opportunity to both pick first and eighth?


Just imagining what it will be like when we find out that the Maple Leafs get a top-10 pick and the Hurricanes win the first overall pick...And to be clear, if Toronto loses to Columbus, they can only move up to 1-3, right? They can't move up to any other slots in the top-10, right?
 
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Amazing Kreiderman said:
My proposal was the following:

- A homegrown player qualifies for a 5% cap hit discount for each year after the ELC he is on the team, with a max of 25%
- A homegrown player is a player drafted by the team and has not been part of other organizations since
- Once a player moves, his contract is no longer eligible for a discount

This set up emphasizes building through the draft. Let's take Barkov for instance. When he hits his UFA status, he gets to negotiate with different teams. Florida can offer him 12m AAV with only an 8m cap hit. It gives teams a better chance at keeping their team together and competing for a cup while it incentivizes loyalty by a player
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not sure i’m buying loyalty when you can circumvent the cap by paying more.

The Barkov scenario is more than 25%. At $8million (it’s almost 34%) and then the lack of State income tax helps further position the Fla teams, Dallas, Vegas and Nashville (which has Hall tax).

We also have a Canadian dollar worth more than an American dollar while the operating income of many teams is almost half the league generating less than $10 million.

Then we have a franchise like the Rangers who can pay all or any of their drafted players at a 25% cap discount (Fast and anybody they want to keep from he past few draft classes) then turn around with the savings and outbid another franchise for a much more costly player.

I know where you’re going but your discount scenario will really benefit teams like the Rangers, position the teams with no State Income tax better and, at the moment, benefit the Canadian teams while those with low operating income Teams from a taxed State struggle mightily.

Could a new TV increase revenues shared? Yes, and that could help. Still, those from States with no income taxes gain a further advantage.

Bring that 25% down and maybe. Although those Barkov numbers are more heavily discounted than 25%. Personally i prefer compensation picks for losing a FA player with the compensation relative to the dollars the player signed for.
 
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There are a couple of concepts I like for the cap that I think can help the game. Not going into all of them, but here are a couple.
  • Mid-level exemption: A player who is of Group 6 or Standard UFA status and is waiver eligible. Must sign a one-way contract with a max of two years.
    • Player does not have to pass through waivers, and does not count against the cap in the AHL. AAV cannot exceed the amount that can be buried in the AHL.
    • This is designed to create that AHL veteran call-up as a designated role. You can sign higher quality depth players, and keep them in North America.
  • Import call-ups: Player who isn't on a team's reserve list that is eligible to be signed and called up following the trade deadline and playoffs. AAV does not count against the cap in the AHL and the player does not have to pass through waivers, and AAV cannot exceed the amount that can be buried in the AHL.
    • Allows teams to add European pro league players at the end of each Euroleague season to come over to the NHL. Helps teams get deeper for the playoffs, and adds more NHL jobs.
 
A cap credit of some kind has been discussed as a short term alternative to compulsory buyouts. That would certainly help the wealthy teams.

Keep in mind there are poorer teams and a few with real cash issues (like the one closest to my house) that probably wouldn't be anxious to help the upper crust.
 
bobbop said:
A cap credit of some kind has been discussed as a short term alternative to compulsory buyouts. That would certainly help the wealthy teams.

Keep in mind there are poorer teams and a few with real cash issues (like the one closest to my house) that probably wouldn't be anxious to help the upper crust.
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It'd be nice to be excused from that Shattenkirk cap hit or at least have it abated
 
It's a shame that J.T. Miller was such an unmotivated dog when he was here. He's winning 59% of his draws and averaging over a PPG.
 
bobbop said:
Something to keep in mind about Fast. He might prefer a one year contract so he doesn’t become an expansion draft option. UFA in an expansion year could certainly could be his preference.
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He should take the money and years .. an expansion team should take a younger player imo anyway
 
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Amazing Kreiderman said:
My proposal was the following:

- A homegrown player qualifies for a 5% cap hit discount for each year after the ELC he is on the team, with a max of 25%
- A homegrown player is a player drafted by the team and has not been part of other organizations since
- Once a player moves, his contract is no longer eligible for a discount

This set up emphasizes building through the draft. Let's take Barkov for instance. When he hits his UFA status, he gets to negotiate with different teams. Florida can offer him 12m AAV with only an 8m cap hit. It gives teams a better chance at keeping their team together and competing for a cup while it incentivizes loyalty by a player
Click to expand...

Similar to the Bird Rights rule in the NBA then. They give a sliding boost to what teams can offer their own players depending on how long they’ve been there. There’s no draft provision though. But I like adding that.
 
Ranger Spice said:
Seeking some clarity with regard to the lottery on June 26th:

I'm just confused as to how it will all look like so maybe someone can fill in the gaps for me. I imagine that Bill Daly will reveal the order much like he's done in the past. Hypothetically, say at pick 8, it's revealed that "pick 8 will belong to Qualifying Team A" i.e. a playoff team qualifying round loser. And say a few minutes later he states that "Qualifying Team B will pick first overall."

And then in a few weeks, Phase 2 will happen, which will determine the teams who now pick first and eighth, right? In the above scenario, does each qualifying round loser have an equal opportunity to both pick first and eighth?


Just imagining what it will be like when we find out that the Maple Leafs get a top-10 pick and the Hurricanes win the first overall pick...And to be clear, if Toronto loses to Columbus, they can only move up to 1-3, right? They can't move up to any other slots in the top-10, right?
Click to expand...

there will only be a phase 2 of the lottery if one of the play-in teams gets 1 of the top 3 picks because those are the only spots determined by the lottery. the rest are determined by the standings...when they 'reveal' teams 15-4 those aren't lottery results those are just the reverse order in the standings and if your team gets skipped that means you are in the top 3.
 
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Ranger Spice said:
Seeking some clarity with regard to the lottery on June 26th:

I'm just confused as to how it will all look like so maybe someone can fill in the gaps for me. I imagine that Bill Daly will reveal the order much like he's done in the past. Hypothetically, say at pick 8, it's revealed that "pick 8 will belong to Qualifying Team A" i.e. a playoff team qualifying round loser. And say a few minutes later he states that "Qualifying Team B will pick first overall."

And then in a few weeks, Phase 2 will happen, which will determine the teams who now pick first and eighth, right? In the above scenario, does each qualifying round loser have an equal opportunity to both pick first and eighth?


Just imagining what it will be like when we find out that the Maple Leafs get a top-10 pick and the Hurricanes win the first overall pick...And to be clear, if Toronto loses to Columbus, they can only move up to 1-3, right? They can't move up to any other slots in the top-10, right?
Click to expand...

The phase 2 lottery is only to determine which team or teams that lost in the qualifying rounds picks in the top-3. The other slots are not determined by lottery, but reverse standings order.
 
Leetch3 said:
there will only be a phase 2 of the lottery if one of the play-in teams gets 1 of the top 3 picks because those are the only spots determined by the lottery. the rest are determined by the standings...when they 'reveal' teams 15-4 those aren't lottery results those are just the reverse order in the standings and if your team gets skipped that means you are in the top 3.
Click to expand...

I believe we will know how the top-3 are allocated after the phase 1 lottery. For example, we might know that Detroit picks first, Team E picks second, and Ottawa picks third. The phase 2 lottery will determine who Team E is. In that way, we will also know after phase 1 where all of the 7 teams who missed the qualifying round will pick as well. There won’t be a 15-4 reveal this time.

I could be wrong about that.
 
I do like some aspects of how the cap works for the NFL. Guaranteed money and being able to cut guys, you see guys like Brendan Smith who get their money and slack off. Dustin Brown spent the last few years as a top 6 player after spending almost 5 years looking like he was on his way out, so the talent is still there...a lot of those dudes from those Kings teams won their cups, partied and did a bunch of coke. And you know a budget team like Ottawa has been handicapped a bit by Bobby Ryan. There's a lot of flexibility because if you go all in a player with almost all guaranteed money there's a good chance you can't cut him, flipside... A guy like Semin a few years ago would be the perfect example of a guy you could throw a bunch of money to with 0 guaranteed money and if he underperforms..goodbye, good for a budget team
 
@Ranger Spice

Phase1 draft lotto will only show who picks 1-3, be it actual teams or an unassigned play-in loser.

Phase 2, if needed, is to determine what play-in losers get the Top 3 picks if any of those slots was previously won by an unassigned pick. The chances each play-in team has to win an unassigned pick is the same: 12.5%/14.3%/16.67% if there ends up being 1/2/3 unassigned picks that won the Phase 1 lotto.

Picks 4-15 will be reverse order of the standings, like normal, of the play-in losers and the other four teams that didn't play the play-in/lost the Phase 1 lotto.
 
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bobbop said:
A cap credit of some kind has been discussed as a short term alternative to compulsory buyouts. That would certainly help the wealthy teams.

Keep in mind there are poorer teams and a few with real cash issues (like the one closest to my house) that probably wouldn't be anxious to help the upper crust.
Click to expand...

I’d tell them to get over it. The revenue sharing from the teams that make money lets them exist in the first place.
 
Tawnos said:
I believe we will know how the top-3 are allocated after the phase 1 lottery. For example, we might know that Detroit picks first, Team E picks second, and Ottawa picks third. The phase 2 lottery will determine who Team E is. In that way, we will also know after phase 1 where all of the 7 teams who missed the qualifying round will pick as well. There won’t be a 15-4 reveal this time.

I could be wrong about that.
Click to expand...

yes that is correct...if one of the Letter teams end up in the top 3 we will know that during phase 1 and that there will be phase 2 of the lottery where the losers of the play-in will all have a 1/8 chance of getting that slot...if the initial draft lottery reveals 3 teams from the bottom 7 then its done and no 2nd lottery...because of that they really can't do the dramatic reveal.

but teams will probably know if they have a 1/8 chance at a top pick if they lose the play-in round before those games are played....
 
The league won't move away from a hard cap, the NHL and NFL are more stable than soft cap leagues from the perspective of individual teams, the NBA has more struggling markets, and the MLB has it's share of non-competitive issues. Just got some figures from a contact of mine, the data is very reliable unless annotated below, and may be known to those with prior exposure.
  • The league is expected to lose an average of $1.8M per team per home game due to the Coronavirus lockout.
  • Home ice attendance dropped, but the analysis I received is questionable in methodology, they took lost games into account, and that drops the figures significantly. I see why they did it, but needless to say it aligns with the economic impact in the first bullet. That said, there was a sub 1% drop in average attendance if you exclude lost games.
  • Kudos to Carolina, going on a playoff run last year helped, but so did their shenanigans. Their fan engagement metrics and attendance went up... would not be surprised to see more teams take on the storm surge.
  • The league has done an absolutely phenomenal job of increasing per team profitability since the inception of the cap, but you still have 5-7 weak sisters every year. It's the same couple of teams every year. The the three constants also have the three worst real estate deals in the league. FLA, ARI, and OTT. Their arena is a generous 2-3 hour a game logistics commitment depending on traffic. The other markets are financially competitive if the team is competitive.
  • Bettman should be strutting around with his shades on in the dark as he he's lead a 3.7x improvement in per team valuation since the inception of the hard cap. Just outstanding results for a business with so many variables. Shame it came at the cost of lost games, but the players and owners both benefited from this. Guy deserves some positive recognition.
  • Early estimations are that the league is set to lose 19-22% on ticket sales this year compared to last year. There could be a roll-back. The 04-05 season's biggest contention beyond the cap itself was a 24% salary roll-back. We are close to those figures here. A year was lost to implement the cap, so my hopes are that there is a solution to the lost revenue this time around that won't result in a lock-out.
Some Non-NHL figures
  • This is more communal, but affects the future of the game. Access to rinks have gone down, there was a reduction of available rinks by 20% in the last 5 years. This is in conjunction with the number of players going up. What does this mean? It means the sport got more expensive to play.
  • Climate changes have caused a number of outdoor rinks to be more difficult to manage or be inaccessible in NA and in EU.
  • There have been more girls playing hockey in the last 10 years, and fewer boys, but the figure is minor. The stagnation is driven by access to ice, most NHL teams have local support programs to get more players involved in the game. The Rangers do a very good job of this, but need to do more for kids in the 11-16 range if they want to grow the sport in the local area. The Islanders have done a really good job of this with their alumni. That's lead to guys like Fox, McAvoy, Pinto coming out of LI.
 
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