Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XIV

[HatTrick Swayze]

I just don’t quite get the thought process by the org if they dump Andersson now.

The kid always had questions about his upside. Always. But they spent a #7 pick on that.

He goes out and has produced well enough up through the NHL level. And now suddenly the investment via opportunities and cost of holding him vs trading him is not worth it? Huh?

I don’t understand not giving him a better look. I mean I like Howden well enough, I’m not a “Howden hater” but it’s fair to say he hasn’t been setting the world on fire creating offense. After all this investment in Lias, why not give him a look?

And if the org is this shocked by Andersson not displaying enough ability with the puck that’s 100% on them this was plain as day going back to pre draft.

 

[Edge]

I think Howden has officially taken over the whipping boy position vacated by Pionk.

Yeah, saw that coming from a mile away.

 

[Trxjw]

Feels more and more like the organization has moved Lias down the depth chart for whatever reason. Perhaps it's just a matter of deciding that if they're going to wait for a player with holes to develop, they'd rather it be a scoring winger than a 3rd line center.

If they think JP is a potential 25 goal winger who can keep Kakko happy, then I can see the logic in a move like that. Sometimes a gamble needs to be taken even if there are some obvious flaws in the asset you're acquiring.

Lias brings a lot to the table even as a 3C but a lot has changed between now and when he was drafted. Lemieux adds some of that desired bite to the lineup. Howden or Strome can be a viable 3C. Might just be as simple as trying to flip a lesser valued asset for a more useful one.

 

[NYR Viper]

@Edge would you consider JP a future replacement for someone like Buchnevich?

It seems odd that they haven't at least tried Andersson on the wing. His game would seem to be one that would thrive playing a simplified game on the wing and in close spaces in and around the opposing teams net. At least that's where he was successful at lower levels.

 

[RangerBoy]

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I mean things have to come to a head with Puljujarvi by December 1st correct? If he doesn't sign by then he can't play the year

Edit: Nevermind

 

[Tawnos]

Dog bites man kind of quote.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I think if his choice were to take a trade out off Edmonton and report to Hartford or remain a part of the Oilers he would likely change his mind

 

[Trxjw]

Yeah, saw that coming from a mile away.

This place is nothing if not predictable.

 

[Cassano]

Why trade anything of value for a guy that won't come over this season? People suggesting trading Lias for him are nuts.

 

[Mike in Houston]

I think Howden has officially taken over the whipping boy position vacated by Pionk.

There always has to be one.

 

[CupofOil]

Hey guys, are these Andersson for Pulju rumors coming from legit sources?

I've never thought of Andersson as a high upside guy but does he look like he could be a high end 3rd liner at least?

 

[kovazub94]

Right now, with the proper level of support, I think Andersson has a better shot of being an NHL player. I don't think the upside is there like JP, but I'm really not sure JP can convert his skills and style into a scoring, top-six role. And if he's not in that role, I don't see a middle six or bottom six winger. Even assuming I did see a skilled third line player, we're already dealing with the ups and downs of that with Buchnevich.

Even if Andersson never scores 20 goals or 55 points, I do see at least a third liner in there who disturbs the other team and serves a motor for his clubs. I've seen that at literally every other stop for him on his journey, and flashes of that in NY.

I think a lot of people would be surprised if they actually saw JP with regularity. I think they'd also grow even more frustrated with him than they have someone like Buchnevich. But there's this memory of what he was, or at least what people thought he would be. Kind of like the person you dated with or had a crush on when you were younger. There's always this pull to recapture those feelings and reconnect. But the reality almost never matches the fantasy.

At the end of the day, if Andersson doesn't make it, he doesn't make it. But it would be nice to feel like we put as much effort as possible in trying to get him to succeed before we move on. However, I can't say I feel like we've done that. Nor can I say that we will. I don't see any desire to see if something's there from Quinn. We've seen flashes of things that have worked, be it playing with Zibanejad, Lemieux and Fast, etc. But we never revisit that. Regardless of how one feels about Andersson, that's just ****ing strange.

And if that's the way it's going to be, then regardless of whether I would move Andersson, then that's what we have to do. Because this approach is simply not going to work and there's no point in waiting three months, six months, or a year to arrive at the same conclusion that it's just not going to work.

IMHO, the organizational fault for Andersson's struggles is that they seemed to force-accelerate his development.

With the help of a hindsight, in his D+1 year Lias should've been left to play-out the full season in SHL. If you recall he was getting really comfortable in being a 2nd line center role and he had a very good WJC showing so that might have fooled the brass in thinking he was more ready to play in NA than he truly was (and he was able to put up points in the AHL after coming over). Similarly, last season he'd probably be better off spending more time (and getting more minutes) in the AHL, if not even still be in the SHL given what a shit show Hartford team was last season.

 

[Edge]

@Edge would you consider JP a future replacement for someone like Buchnevich?

It seems odd that they haven't at least tried Andersson on the wing. His game would seem to be one that would thrive playing a simplified game on the wing and in close spaces in and around the opposing teams net. At least that's where he was successful at lower levels.

Maybe; but that's a big maybe for me.

What I've found surprising with JP is how he's struggled to consistently create offense, even at the AHL level. He's often had to rely on a crafty enough center at that level, and the speed at which he processes the game seems to be a bit of a struggle when he faces faster competition, or better competition a the NHL level.

That wouldn't be a problem if he did other things, but if offense and skills is your meat and potatoes, it's a noteworthy concern.

I feel like I can live with what JP is or isn't, but I'm not sure that's the most prevalent expectation. This isn't a young player who's shown he can hang at the NHL level, but has since seen his production drop. This is a guy has had some lingering question marks for a while. In hindsight, those question marks started to pop up prior to the draft, about three and a half years ago.

If we can live with the idea that we're probably not looking at boom potential, and maybe looking at a guy who might be more of a skilled, support player, then we might be able to set reasonable expectations. If people are secretly holding out hope that we're looking at a 30 goal, 60 point player, there's a reasonable chance they're going to be severely disappointed. And depending on how one views those two outcomes, you hope the price you're willing to pay falls in line.

I don't want to pay a premium because we view him as high-risk/high-reward. I'd be more comfortable paying a lower price based on the view that he might be more of a medium-risk/medium reward type investment.

 

[bobbop]

My friend if Lias Andersson was any good he wouldn’t be glued to the fourth line of a rebuilding team. That’s just the reality of the situation. If anything coaching and management desperately want him to be the guy they hoped they drafted. He’s not.

we myself included made these same arguments for Mcilrath. We wanted to be right but we weren’t. And even he at least flashed some of what made him a high pick. Lias has never flashed anything special at the NHL level. The best thing for both he and us is to trade him and the sooner the better.

Nice string of posts on this thread. Spot on

 

[DanielBrassard]

I think Howden has officially taken over the whipping boy position vacated by Pionk.

A deserved honor. He's been horrible.

 

[Raspewtin]

I live to see an HF where you can rip a bad player without people whining about fictitious whipping boys

 

[NickyLongLegz]

I like the idea of recruiting a fellow Finn (with upside) to help make kakko happier here, but wasn’t the reason JP wanting out of Edmonton because he was getting bottom 6 minutes? I can’t see where he would fit here in the top 6 next year once (assuming) kravtsov takes that next step

 

[The New Russian Five]

My friend if Lias Andersson was any good he wouldn’t be glued to the fourth line of a rebuilding team. That’s just the reality of the situation. If anything coaching and management desperately want him to be the guy they hoped they drafted. He’s not.

we myself included made these same arguments for Mcilrath. We wanted to be right but we weren’t. And even he at least flashed some of what made him a high pick. Lias has never flashed anything special at the NHL level. The best thing for both he and us is to trade him and the sooner the better.

He looked pretty good in pre-season and in the first couple of games. He looked much better than he looked last season. Sounded like he worked his butt off in the offseason. His play just seems to have declined the last few weeks. Why wouldn't it? Literally every other player on the team has been shuffled to a different line meanwhile Lias can't even get one crack at even the 3rd line. I would be extremely deflated too that the coaches won't even give me a chance to prove myself.

Is Lias' offensive potential pretty limited? Potentially, but hey let's find out for sure. This is like the Namestnikov situation. Everyone was screaming to have him try playing the 2nd line center position just to see how it would go. But, nope let's keep him on the 3rd line instead of experimenting. Now he is playing twice as good for Ottawa than he did for us.

For some odd reason this organization is adverse to just experimenting and trying new things and often force feed things that don't work. A great example was Vesey, who clearly had limited offensive ability, but kept finding himself on the 2nd line.

I'm just worried that we are going to trade Lias to some team that sticks him on the 2nd line and he starts producing. It's happened before many times.

 

[Edge]

I live to see an HF where you can rip a bad player without people whining about fictitious whipping boys

I live to see a HF where people on a very short list acknowledge their tendency to become keenly focused on one or two particular players and realize that is appears borderline compulsive-obsessive.

 

[NYR Viper]

Maybe; but that's a big maybe for me.

What I've found surprising with JP is how he's struggled to consistently create offense, even at the AHL level. He's often had to rely on a crafty enough center at that level, and the speed at which he processes the game seems to be a bit of a struggle when he faces faster competition, or better competition a the NHL level.

That wouldn't be a problem if he did other things, but if offense and skills is your meat and potatoes, it's a noteworthy concern.

I feel like I can live with what JP is or isn't, but I'm not sure that's the most prevalent expectation. This isn't a young player who's shown he can hang at the NHL level, but has since seen his production drop. This is a guy has had some lingering question marks for a while. In hindsight, those question marks started to pop up prior to the draft, about three and a half years ago.

If we can live with the idea that we're probably not looking at boom potential, and maybe looking at a guy who might be more of a skilled, support player, then we might be able to set reasonable expectations. If people are secretly holding out hope that we're looking at a 30 goal, 60 point player, there's a reasonable chance they're going to be severely disappointed. And depending on how one views those two outcomes, you hope the price you're willing to pay falls in line.

I don't want to pay a premium because we view him as high-risk/high-reward. I'd be more comfortable paying a lower price based on the view that he might be more of a medium-risk/medium reward type investment.

I would probably look at him as a Kreider-like style of play. His IQ may not be there but his size and strength should make him a competent top-6 player. Kreider, in his years in BC, showed the same thing you're mentioning. Hell, Kreider never really lit the AHL on fire either.

He had 23 points in 48 games in the AHL his 4th year after being drafted after (3) years in NCAA. Puljujaarvi, in his 4th year since being drafted has 20 points in 18 games in the SM-Liga. Seems comparable.

I'd be pretty open to an Andersson/JP swap at this point. Neither seem to be working on in their current organization.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

I live to see a HF where people on a very short list acknowledge their tendency to become keenly focused on one or two particular players and realize that is appears borderline compulsive-obsessive.

As someone with OCD, obsessive-compulsive.
There I feel better now.

 

[Trxjw]

I live to see an HF where you can rip a bad player without people whining about fictitious whipping boys

A hit dog will holler, as they say.

 

[gravey9]

Maybe; but that's a big maybe for me.

What I've found surprising with JP is how he's struggled to consistently create offense, even at the AHL level. He's often had to rely on a crafty enough center at that level, and the speed at which he processes the game seems to be a bit of a struggle when he faces faster competition, or better competition a the NHL level.

That wouldn't be a problem if he did other things, but if offense and skills is your meat and potatoes, it's a noteworthy concern.

I feel like I can live with what JP is or isn't, but I'm not sure that's the most prevalent expectation. This isn't a young player who's shown he can hang at the NHL level, but has since seen his production drop. This is a guy has had some lingering question marks for a while. In hindsight, those question marks started to pop up prior to the draft, about three and a half years ago.

If we can live with the idea that we're probably not looking at boom potential, and maybe looking at a guy who might be more of a skilled, support player, then we might be able to set reasonable expectations. If people are secretly holding out hope that we're looking at a 30 goal, 60 point player, there's a reasonable chance they're going to be severely disappointed. And depending on how one views those two outcomes, you hope the price you're willing to pay falls in line.

I don't want to pay a premium because we view him as high-risk/high-reward. I'd be more comfortable paying a lower price based on the view that he might be more of a medium-risk/medium reward type investment.

This is a very accurate post. If you read what Oilers fans think of JP, this is on the money. This is why I wouldn't trade Lias for him. Lias has already proven that he can handle himself fairly well on the defensive side of things. And he's decent in the corners.

To me, JP needs to remake his game quite a bit to find a role in the NHL and remains to be seen if hes up to the task. In some ways, the situation reminds me of Beniot Pouliot. Pouliot was a high pick who just didn't have the IQ to become a top 6 player. What he did have was great speed and size. And above average hands. As a result, he was able to remake his game into a 3rd liner, 30 pt player whose speed could back up opponents. That ended up being his ceiling. Similarly, JP is CURRENTLY lacking in certain areas that may force him to change his game/role or just play in Europe. With JP, he has the size and hands to become a netfront presence on the PP. The question is, what is his role when not on the PP?

 

[Shesterkybomb]

This is a very accurate post. If you read what Oilers fans think of JP, this is on the money. This is why I wouldn't trade Lias for him. Lias has already proven that he can handle himself fairly well on the defensive side of things. And he's decent in the corners.

To me, JP needs to remake his game quite a bit to find a role in the NHL and remains to be seen if hes up to the task. In some ways, the situation reminds me of Beniot Pouliot. Pouliot was a high pick who just didn't have the IQ to become a top 6 player. What he did have was great speed and size. And above average hands. As a result, he was able to remake his game into a 3rd liner, 30 pt player whose speed could back up opponents. That ended up being his ceiling. Similarly, JP is CURRENTLY lacking in certain areas that may force him to change his game/role or just play in Europe. With JP, he has the size and hands to become a netfront presence on the PP. The question is, what is his role when not on the PP?

Much like Kakko is you mean? Edmonton totally ruined that kid, he can probably be salvaged but they forced him into things he wasnt ready for and then crapped on him when he failed. The measured approach we are using with Kakko would go a long way with J.P. I see a lot of similarities in the two players as prospects, however one is being treated fairly and the other isnt. If we could get him and not lose part of the future of this team I'm all for it. Something with Fast involved works for both teams, Edmonton gets a player who could actually play with Draisaitl and mcdavid or move around their middle 6 if necessary, play on the pk and is cheap.