Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XIV (To trade or not to trade is the question)

[TheDirtyH]

The team that traded for Jeannott is probably one of the smartest teams in the league for what its worth. That Guentzel contract that wouldnt have helped us at all seems to have made an impact, but i digress).

As far as the "analytics" stuff (I hate that word because its not specific and I dont want to paint all predictive stats with a wide brush) the problem is when a trade or signing goes down Dom L (who is an absolute clown btw) and jfresh and others like that throw a chart in everyone's face and say how stupid a move it was and what an idiot the Gm is before the guy plays a game in his new spot. Just because a player had bad underlying numbers on 1 team, doesnt mean he's going to be bad on another team. There are mountains of examples of this. You can't tie a teams poor underlyings to 1 player, just like you cant tie a good teams underlying numbers to 1 player. Jack Johnson was a boat anchor on the Rangers. He won a Cup as a regular the next year with Colorado. The situation matters more than the players heat map, and the analytics zealots like to appeal to the authority of guys who have largely thrown shit at a wall. 32 NHL teams are not beholden to these orthodoxies that have popped up over the last 10-15 years. Not sure why fans should be.

Yeah the analytics are a major mixed bag. I was just listening to a podcast where the host said that he a) appreciated Team A for passing up shots for more "efficiency" and b) he really wasn't impressed with their "possession" (which has always been approximated by shot attempts).

I almost crashed my car in fury lol

 

[Boris Zubov]

My analytics say we have a 50% chance of making it

 

[Ruggs225]

Pretty safe to say nothing will happen until they get back from Dallas

Pretty safe to say nothing will happen till after new years.

Roster freeze starts tomorrow 11:59 pm and goes through Dec 28.

I think Chris will wait till after new years to not piss off his team even more. He cant be that big of a dick right?

Plus other teams have internal freezes as to mot disrupt holidays for team and their families.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Pretty safe to say nothing will happen till after new years.

Roster freeze starts tomorrow 11:59 pm and goes through Dec 28.

I think Chris will wait till after new years to not piss off his team even more. He cant be that big of a dick right?

Same. Don’t forget the other GM needs to send a dude or two packing before the holidays as well.

I don’t think anything is imminent anyway.

 

[McRanger92]

Yeah the analytics are a major mixed bag. I was just listening to a podcast where the host said that he a) appreciated Team A for passing up shots for more "efficiency" and b) he really wasn't impressed with their "possession" (which has always been approximated by shot attempts).

I almost crashed my car in fury lol

There's great value in certain advanced stats. For example, I like the stuff that measures individual player skills(speed, passing efficiency, zone entries/exits, etc.) more than team wide xGF or that type of stuff. Hockey is a sport that moves to fast and has too many variables for that to mean anything actionable imo. On the fly changes alone are a variable no other sport has.

I will use the Rangers as an example to my thesis. They have been a bad 5v5 team over the past 5 or so years, and the numbers have born that out. They've won games because their PP and goaltending have been elite. They aren't bad at even strength due to a lack of talent, they are bad 5v5 because they have largely lacked the ability to win 1 on 1 battles, which is the implied objective of 5v5 hockey. beat your man to the puck/open space. Forecheck pressure, speed, hitting with intent(instead of for show like Trouba), smart puck decisions at both blue lines, defenseman taking the man instead of backing up. That type of analysis is far more valuable to me than saying "X Player is in the 47% percentile in GAR, so he sucks". That contributes nothing to a discussion about the game being played on ice. There isn't a mathematical equation that solves the 82 + 16 game puzzle.

 

[Profet]

When can I get a McCheese jersey?

You don't want one. They are really hard to get into at our age.

 

[NYR Viper]

Technically, teams don’t need to send a player or two packing if they make an acquisition by tomorrow. It could be all or mainly futures

 

[bernmeister]

Kreider + Kakko (50% retained) + Lindgren (50% retained) for Eriksson-Ek + Brodin.
What do you think?

no
go younger/better offers

If Mika would waive, is Zibs and Kakko or Lindgren enough for JTM?

VAN does not want to trade JTM and will not unless forced to
so no
that said, if we full retain on Zib and move him for useful pieces
Juulsen,, Raty, Forbot + cap dump DeScharnais
I could see that happening b'c gamble is acceptable risk-reward, though they would be scrambling for deadline D depth

Moving Zib will be painful as to min useful return and cost max retent.
but it has to be done

Base trade Kreider for JTM.

Then send Mika to Chicago for Bertuzzi

no
VAN wants to add to EP, JTM
also JTM costs more

I would imagine the trade would be 1 for 1 if a deal happens. No need to add Kakko or Lindgren.

A "your headache for my headache" kind of deal.

Not w/that much of a value discrepancy

 

[mike14]

Yeah the analytics are a major mixed bag. I was just listening to a podcast where the host said that he a) appreciated Team A for passing up shots for more "efficiency" and b) he really wasn't impressed with their "possession" (which has always been approximated by shot attempts).

I almost crashed my car in fury lol

I don't want start another endless debate about stat watching vs game watching, but in this particular case is it not simply possible that the host has what they feel is a better measure for possession than shot attempts are, and so they are able to split them apart for better analysis?

Shot attempts = possession always seemed weird to me so I'm assuming that as more data becomes available someone has come up with a different model

 

[LokiDog]

Man, we finally fleeced someone! I was going to say it’s also a slap in the face to soyboy to send him to a burger chain but then I realized McDonald’s burgers aren’t meat either, so it’s actually a perfect fit. He can put his latest mix tape in every happy meal!

 

[LokiDog]

You make it sound like the team just had a shutout loss to one of the worst teams in the NHL

THE worst team in the league. Always be specific with your wording.

 

[mrmovies779]

Great..now he's gonna fumble peoples orders

 

[TheDirtyH]

I don't want start another endless debate about stat watching vs game watching, but in this particular case is it not simply possible that the host has what they feel is a better measure for possession than shot attempts are, and so they are able to split them apart for better analysis?

Shot attempts = possession always seemed weird to me so I'm assuming that as more data becomes available someone has come up with a different model

I don't think that's likely based on the usual content from them. Especially as NHLedge and others have made "possession time" something nominally distinct from "possession metrics" for the most part

 

[NYR Viper]

I’m in Dallas coming back home from a work trip. Kreider to Dallas confirmed

 

[Hockeyfan200]

Minnesota says no. Brodin is a nonstarter.

Eriksson ek and Bridin are non starters! Wild aren’t trading from a position of weakness at C for wingers and Dman

Kreider + Kakko (50% retained) + Lindgren (50% retained) for Eriksson-Ek + Brodin.
What do you think?

Why do you even think the wild would consider this?

 

[bhamill]

I died on the hill many times over that Lafereniere doesn't go on the powerplay until he f***ing gives us a reason.

Now I think he's earned it.

That’s fine. Doesn’t change the fact that he didn’t blossom till we gave him more leash and stuck with him…

You could have planted Kakko on the first line, given him all the PP1 time in the world, with the world's biggest leash the minute he stepped off the plane from Helsinki and he'd still be pretty much the same player.

You can postulate this all you want, but you can’t demonstrate it. We will never know, but you are of course entitled to your opinion.

 

[Trxjw]

Good news is that when the team is in a state like it is they have some kids stepping up and playing well in spite of the whining going on. Cuylle, Lafreniere, Chytil, and Schneider. Those are pieces you can build around. They're deserve to be given the reins.

 

[NYR Viper]

Good news is that when the team is in a state like it is they have some kids stepping up and playing well in spite of the whining going on. Cuylle, Lafreniere, Chytil, and Schneider. Those are pieces you can build around. They're deserve to be given the reins.

I’d argue that Berard is in this group too

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

People need to stop wish casting pulling off of Minnesota's top 9.

There is so much in that system that would be worth going after and would be more attainable even beyond their top guys who would be warded off.

Heidt would be a great add.

 

[Trxjw]

I’d argue that Berard is in this group too

Absolutely. I knew I was forgetting someone.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

There's no rush to make a change. One change isn't going to get this team to the playoffs unless it's like McDavid or Crosby or something (which obviously ain't happening).

 

[McRanger92]

Pretty safe to say nothing will happen till after new years.

Roster freeze starts tomorrow 11:59 pm and goes through Dec 28.

I think Chris will wait till after new years to not piss off his team even more. He cant be that big of a dick right?

Plus other teams have internal freezes as to mot disrupt holidays for team and their families.

"Christmas is cancelled due to lack of hustle. Deal with it."

People need to stop wish casting pulling off of Minnesota's top 9.

There is so much in that system that would be worth going after and would be more attainable even beyond their top guys who would be warded off.

Heidt would be a great add.

We shouldve traded our Kaapo Kakko for Jake Middleton years ago when I first suggested it.

 

[Peltz]

Man, we finally fleeced someone! I was going to say it’s also a slap in the face to soyboy to send him to a burger chain but then I realized McDonald’s burgers aren’t meat either, so it’s actually a perfect fit. He can put his latest mix tape in every happy meal!

The way it was collapsed on my screen, my heart jumped until i expanded it and saw it was a joke

 

[Sisu4ever]

When can I get a McCheese jersey?

At the next Ronald McDonald charity event. If Zip is there you also get it signed.

 

[LokiDog]

Fair warning - if we go past the TDL with both Kreider and Zibanejad on the roster, or the only moves we see are Lindgren for a pick and an underwhelming Kakko trade, this is all I’ll have left:

Not hyperbole. Watched a few games last night I didn’t have a rooting interest in and the enjoyment that HOCKEY brings me is far too great to let this team keep polluting it. I’m a miserable hockey fan when there’s great hockey being played all over the place that I could enjoy. I’ve loved hockey since I was 3 years old and played nearly as long. I can’t let this team keep sucking all of the goodness and the pure love of the game that I have out of the sport for me.