Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XIII (Nanaki edition)

Alluckks

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Nov 2, 2011
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Kreider won us the Carolina series. That is deep in round 2. We were getting hosed by that point. Mika was still counting his points from playing against one of the worst teams to ever grace the playoffs in Washington.
 
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Machinehead

HFNYR MVP
Jan 21, 2011
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People give the roster a pass and assume it's just effort because this board has entirely failed to internalize how much scoring is up compared to the last time we contended.

We have a 90-point center now, so that means we're good, even though 90 points is a run of the mill first liner now.

"How can you say we're not talented enough, Headmachine, we have a 50 goal scorer!!1!"

Guys, Panarin almost scored 50 goals. His previous best was 32. Zach Hyman scored 50 goals. Sam Reinhart almost scored 60. Somebody almost scored f***ing 70!!!

Having Mika put up 85 points or so and Kreider averaging close to 40 per 82 is nice, but every team in the league is doing that in 2024. Frank Vatrano almost scored 40 goals last year on a lottery team.

The production from our forwards, aside from Panarin, is more basic than you think it is.

People talk about having so much more elite talent than in, let's say, 2014. Derick Brassard is putting up 35-50-85 on this league. The version of Nash that scored 42 goals, when 86 points won the Art Ross, is putting up 65 on this league.
 

Pawnee Rangers

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People give the roster a pass and assume it's just effort because this board has entirely failed to internalize how much scoring is up compared to the last time we contended.

We have a 90-point center now, so that means we're good, even though 90 points is a run of the mill first liner now.

"How can you say we're not talented enough, Headmachine, we have a 50 goal scorer!!1!"

Guys, Panarin almost scored 50 goals. His previous best was 32. Zach Hyman scored 50 goals. Sam Reinhart almost scored 60. Somebody almost scored f***ing 70!!!

Having Mika put up 85 points or so and Kreider averaging close to 40 per 82 is nice, but every team in the league is doing that in 2024. Frank Vatrano almost scored 40 goals last year on a lottery team.

The production from our forwards, aside from Panarin, is more basic than you think it is.

People talk about having so much more elite talent than in, let's say, 2014. Derick Brassard is putting up 35-50-85 on this league. The version of Nash that scored 42 goals, when 86 points won the Art Ross, is putting up 65 on this league.
But we’re gonna pay a goalie 11.5m in a few months. You would think he would help make up for the basic production of the offense.
 

DevilDog99

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May 5, 2018
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Fox is cancer to this team? Lol

The venom on this board is pathetic.
Yes… Fox whines and whines. Hasn’t been good since the Vezina. He is sandbagging it.

Yes… Fox whines and whines. Hasn’t been good since the Vezina. He is sandbagging it.
Fox is cancer to this team? Lol

The venom on this board is pathetic.
Get your head out of your ass and watch him play. Today… not three years ago.
 
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Shesterkybomb

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Dec 30, 2016
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Marchand's team is spiraling right now because they suck.

Leadership doesn't fix the roster being bad.

Our roster isn't bad, we're a few months from being 1 game from a stanley cup final. Boston has aged out, Bergeron, Kreiji, Chara etc all gone, they shouldn't have been as good as they were last year but their culture drug them as far and as long as it could.
 

IDvsEGO

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Oct 11, 2016
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Yes… Fox whines and whines. Hasn’t been good since the Vezina. He is sandbagging it.



Get your head out of your ass and watch him play. Today… not three years ago.
we do.
That’s why we know that he’s the best defenseman we’ve had since leetch, and one of the few players on his team playing above his cap hit.

he’s a true 2 way defender, who generates offense and transitions the puck out of the zone defensively.
There are a few flaws to his game, as he can be overwhelmed by true elite forwards like mcdavid who not only move as fast as he thinks, but can also out muscle him physically.
 

Bob Richards

Mr. Mojo Risin'
Feb 9, 2011
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Marchand's team is spiraling right now because they suck.

Leadership doesn't fix the roster being bad.

I’ll be that guy and say I think a chunk of leadership is perception and narrative driven and it’s also downstream from winning/losing games lol.

When teams win games you’ll get fawning articles about some players’ leadership and will to win. They are tight in the locker room. They go on team bowling trips. They’d never tolerate the bad habits you see from (insert bottom feeder team here)!

When teams lose games those same exact players will be written about like Hitler french-kissing his pistol in the Führerbunker.
 

Pawnee Rangers

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Of course leadership is an issue. The GM just tried to trade the team captain twice in 6 months. The GM snaked another leader in Goodrow and circumvented his NTC. Gonna ship out another respected guy. Why the f*** would anyone want to step up and be the leader? Bad players are also an issue.
 

IDvsEGO

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Oct 11, 2016
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People give the roster a pass and assume it's just effort because this board has entirely failed to internalize how much scoring is up compared to the last time we contended.

We have a 90-point center now, so that means we're good, even though 90 points is a run of the mill first liner now.

"How can you say we're not talented enough, Headmachine, we have a 50 goal scorer!!1!"

Guys, Panarin almost scored 50 goals. His previous best was 32. Zach Hyman scored 50 goals. Sam Reinhart almost scored 60. Somebody almost scored f***ing 70!!!

Having Mika put up 85 points or so and Kreider averaging close to 40 per 82 is nice, but every team in the league is doing that in 2024. Frank Vatrano almost scored 40 goals last year on a lottery team.

The production from our forwards, aside from Panarin, is more basic than you think it is.

People talk about having so much more elite talent than in, let's say, 2014. Derick Brassard is putting up 35-50-85 on this league. The version of Nash that scored 42 goals, when 86 points won the Art Ross, is putting up 65 on this league.
I think it’s not quite so black and white.

Offense is up, but at the same time it’s up for elite talents, not for the mid tier guys.
The speed of the game has shot up. Leads to increased pp time, which leads to increased scoring.

Vatrano and Reinhart were pp merchants last year. Let’s not claim they suddenly found a new gear.
Brassard would be a 30-30 guy, which is basically what he always was in his prime.


The team we have now IS more talented than any we had during hanks runs.
We have a true top 5 scorer. We have depth scoring while also having what should be a true 1st line.
We have a Norris candidate on D
We have a couple young mobile defenders who can rush or transition the puck
We have young forwards including one who’s top 10 in 5v5 goals.


Are there major flaws? Absolutely.
Kreider either depended a lot on Mika or lost a lot of his offensive game
Mika has just lost all of his game on both ends of the ice.
Trouba and Lindgren have fallen off cliffs.

But we also have actual talent in our farm system.
Perrault is a top 10 prospect.
Emery was a smart long term grab
Mancini will be ready next year.
Berard looks like he’s nhl ready now.
Edstrom is an nhl regular and might end up middle 6.

Seriously there’s reasons to be upset, but not doom and gloom.
Drury looking at this effort/team and saying “the vets are the problem “ is the correct diagnosis.
His deadline deals have usually been moved we’ve all seen as solid smart moves.
I think Lavi pushing the kids more is the correct diagnosis as well.
Kakko at center was smart and inspired, and might be a long term answer.

So while yes there’s concern there should also be optimism.
 

Fitzy

Very Stable Genius
Jan 29, 2009
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Teams know our big weakness. All they have to do is forecheck, keep both defensemen home, and be disciplined,

Save a revamp of the blue line or a much more conservative build-up strategy I don’t see a path to a Stanley Cup this season.
 

NYRFAN218

King
May 2, 2007
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I have no idea how you watch the games and all the things that are wrong with this team and come to the conclusion that Adam Fox is a major problem. I'm not going to say Fox has had an amazing season but if you graded him relative to expectations he still comes in at a B+. He looks a step slower and maybe a bit more indecisive but he also had 2 different knee injuries last season. Fox being really really good instead of great this season is about problem #1,462 on this team.
 

IDvsEGO

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Oct 11, 2016
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Teams know our big weakness. All they have to do is forecheck, keep both defensemen home, and be disciplined,

Save a revamp of the blue line or a much more conservative build-up strategy I don’t see a path to a Stanley Cup this season.
Surprisingly it doesn’t require a revamp blue line. It requires forwards who can actually handle outlet passes, and replacing 2 defenders who can’t get to the puck before immediately eating a hit.

Replacing Trouba and Lindgren with nhl caliber defenders immediately changes the team.
 

will1066

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Oct 12, 2008
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Winnipeg went through a whole firestorm of shit after Rick Bowness aired out his grievances with the roster. Now they are where they are. Just saying. Sometimes you have to be dragged through the fire to come out the other side.
 
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noncents

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Feb 25, 2022
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Nobody is driving the play 5on5 on that line. Thats the problem. Its still not him. He might try, but he isnt good at it. He is a very good complimentary player.

Actually i take that back, the other team drives the play when the kreider-zib line is on the ice.

Also, i still think that Kreider has the speed. He just doesnt use it nearly as frequently. It could be age, and the amount of abuse he has teken over the years. BUt we still get glimpses of bis speed once in while. Especially on the Pk.
please define "drive play"

this phrase gets tossed around constantly between analytics people and non analytics people and they often aren't talking about the same thing.

are you talking about contribution to xG%? ie possession quality? or are you just talking about elements of play and playstyle you notice when you watch him play?


For example: Machinehead does a thing where he uses different criteria to evaluate different players. For example, he posted Kreiders chart, adapted from evolving hockey numbers, which absolutely use possession quality metrics. Then he describes Kreiders effectiveness as a function of pure goal share - 58%. This is specifically an evaluation of results rather than process - entirely different from the chart.

I wonder what Zibanejad's possession quality and goal share metrics look like over the same span? Likely poor analytical process (xG%) but good results (GF%) - that's how he tends to profile. Zib, however, is a player that Machinehead currently castigates as a "problem player." It's true that Zibanejad's numbers, both XG% and GF%, have fallen this year - but as he himself said it's only 20 games. Clearly what differentiates 93 and 20 are their analytical profile rather than results - their xG%, etc. This analytical profile that describes quantity and quality of possession is what I use the umbrella term "play driving" to encompass. Kreider drives play, Zibanejad doesn't. Rangers own goal share when they share the ice... As Machinehead put it, Kreider carries Zib.

What's interesting, however, is that this standard does not apply universally. A great example is Kakko. Last year before the injury he played with 93/20 and their xg% was stellar. his, individually, too. The line just couldn't score, even though they didn't give up much either. It was almost like they were a perfect 3rd line being deployed against the opposing stars and fighting to a low-event draw.

Machinehead drew a few conclusions from this: 1 that instead of just being unlucky over a small sample size (as many of us asserted), Kakko was to blame: he actively prevented goals for because he's a dumb player. He entirely discredited the strong analytical profile in favor of the GF number. The metric for effectiveness changed entirely to suit the narrative he wanted to espouse, that Kakko sucked and was useless because he was allergic to scoring. (We are seeing now that this hypothesis was foolish).


So what's the point?

A. it matters to understand the terms someone else is using - especially one as both nebulous and essential to discourse as "play driving."

B. take everyone's opinion with a grain of salt - *especially* when it's presented with the type of smug self-assurance and refusal to self-evaluate that we see in this case
 
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Fitzy

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Jan 29, 2009
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Surprisingly it doesn’t require a revamp blue line. It requires forwards who can actually handle outlet passes, and replacing 2 defenders who can’t get to the puck before immediately eating a hit.

Replacing Trouba and Lindgren with nhl caliber defenders immediately changes the team.

Smith and Chytil help to that effect, but it hasn't been enough.

But yes, I think at minimum we need two new puck moving defensemen. Hell, even people like Gus would be a huge improvement. Should have kept both he and Jones.
 

NYRFAN218

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May 2, 2007
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Surprisingly it doesn’t require a revamp blue line. It requires forwards who can actually handle outlet passes, and replacing 2 defenders who can’t get to the puck before immediately eating a hit.

Replacing Trouba and Lindgren with nhl caliber defenders immediately changes the team.

Basically. Forwards need to provide support and not flee the zone and the defensemen need to be able to make a good first pass to transition out. At this point to me if you can't make a good first pass or your initial instinct anytime you have the puck is to flip it out or throw it around the boards without a care in the world then you serve no purpose on the team. I'd wager that a majority of the time the Rangers get buried in their own zone it's due to the D's inability to get the puck and adequately transition without coughing it back up. I'll gladly take any D zone sacrifices it comes with to get 6 defensemen that can move the puck so that the Rangers don't spend 75% of the game in their own zone. Anton Stralman was literally the perfect defenseman in this regard.
 
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Mike in Houston

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Apr 20, 2015
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Chris Kreider opens up on trade talk with Rangers ‘tension’ rising​

RALEIGH, North Carolina – When the Rangers’ longest-tenured player, Chris Kreider, was suddenly sidelined the day after his name was mentioned in president and general manager Chris Drury’s league-wide memo eliciting trade partners, it appeared to be a peculiar coincidence.

The 33-year-old, however, wished to set the record straight ahead of his second straight scratch.

“Back spasms,” Kreider said after an optional morning skate before the Rangers take on the Hurricanes Wednesday night.

“Back locked up on me – Sacrum. Few games back it was lumbar [spine, the lower back made up of five or six vertebrae that support most of the body’s weight and allow for movement] and then during training camp it was thoraxes [the chest, or the part of the body between the neck and the abdomen].

“Very independent, annoying things. So we’re working on it. Done a couple things to remedy it so it doesn’t happen anymore.”

Kreider hasn’t heard his name amongst trade chatter since leading up to the 2020 trade deadline, when the Rangers essentially had to decide between keeping him or defenseman Brady Skjei due to cap restraints.

Skjei was shipped to Carolina and the Rangers signed Kreider to a seven-year, $45.5 million contract with a no-move clause, which was modified to a 15-team no-trade list this season.

Noting that he’s been in New York for 13 seasons now, Kreider said there will always be noise when playing for a team like the Rangers.

Still, the way Drury proclaimed himself open for business to the other 31 NHL general managers less than 20 games into the season — mentioning a list of players that wasn’t limited to just Kreider or their captain, Jacob Trouba — has shades of the ruthlessness the Rangers head honcho showed when circumventing Barclay Goodrow’s no-trade list this summer to shed his $3,641,667 cap hit.

“Shouldn’t trivialize someone’s feelings, but how you feel doesn’t affect your ability to do something that you’ve done for the entirety of your life – unless you let it,” Kreider said.

“There’s guys in here who will say there are games where they come in and they feel great and they don’t play well. There’s games where they’re under the weather, they’re sick, maybe they’re a little banged up and all of sudden the puck is following them around. Body knows what to do, just got to do it your own way and let it do it.”

Kreider said he has had conversations with Drury, who has likely made a point to have several meetings with players in the wake of all the outside chatter. There are always many conversations throughout a season, Kreider said, acknowledging that he’s been part of the leadership group for a while now.

With nine goals and zero assists on the season, Kreider has not added much to the lines he’s skated on or been his usual force on the power play.

There’s discontent throughout the entire locker room with the way the team has played as a whole, but the Rangers are trying to use it as fuel.

“I think it’s pretty obvious there’s frustration, angst, tension,” Kreider said of the feeling in the Rangers’ locker room right now. “Good. We’re 20 games in. Let’s go through this s–t now and figure out who we are. We had the best regular season in the history of an Original Six franchise last year, won a Presidents’ Trophy and didn’t go as far as we would’ve liked. We’re getting exposed right now. Our warts are out there and teams are picking on the things we don’t do well and we’ve gotten away from the things we do do well.

“We don’t necessarily know what this is right now, right? This could just be part of the story. We look back at this and say, ‘This made us better.’”
 

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