Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XIII (Nanaki edition)

[bhamill]

No no youre missing it, its "an additional shorthanded situation"
Which is an extra goal every 4 penalties.

So over the course of last season that would've changed us from a +53 to a +30ish (give or take)

+53 was top 10 in the league.
+30 would be wildcard playoff team.

No. First of all a goal every four penalties is a 75% PK rate. Weren’t we over 80%? That would be less than a goal every FIVE times shorthanded, no? Let’s round it up to one very five.
If Rempe played every game, he won’t, and took a non matching penalty every three games, he seems to be learning the line so hopefully that is going down, that’s 27.3 penalties. Let’s round it UP to 28 to err on the high side. 28/5=5.6. Rounding UP again that’s 6 goals a year with Rempe playing EVERY game. So I’m rounding up at every chance, and assuming he has made no progress. And this is assuming penalties where an opposing player also went off have been filtered out, which hasn’t been demonstrated. So we go from +53 to +47… in pretty much worse case scenario. If he plays half the games, still assuming worst case, we go from +53 to +50…
Haven’t had my coffee yet so please check my numbers. If I made a mistake I’ll easily admit to it.

I'm sorry but I have not a clue what you're talking about anymore. Was this even this week? My brain is fried.

He was quoting me, buddy. I recognize my nonsense. Haha.

 

[Lion Hound]

If Igor gets $12 Mil from the NY Rangers, who then is the sacrificial mule/s? After the Trouba drama i would assume he is staying put till the end of his deal.

$11,100,000 Coming off the books with 5 players.
Smith's $3,750,000 expires.
Vesey's $800,000 expires
Lindgren's $4,500,000 expires
Quick's $1,275,000 expires
Ruhwedl's $775,000 expires

Some real Key RFA's due significant raises.

RFA's
Lafreniere (8mil?)
Miller
Kakko
Cuylle
Jones
Edstrom
Rempe

 

[Miz]

If Igor gets $12 Mil from the NY Rangers, who then is the sacrificial mule/s? After the Trouba drama i would assume he is staying put till the end of his deal.

$11,100,000 Coming off the books with 5 players.
Smith's $3,750,000 expires.
Vesey's $800,000 expires
Lindgren's $4,500,000 expires
Quick's $1,275,000 expires
Ruhwedl's $775,000 expires

Some real Key RFA's due significant raises.

RFA's
Lafreniere (8mil?)
Miller
Kakko
Cuylle
Jones
Edstrom
Rempe

Cap is also estimated to go up 4.5m. But i still see the issue

 

[noncents]

If Igor gets $12 Mil from the NY Rangers, who then is the sacrificial mule/s? After the Trouba drama i would assume he is staying put till the end of his deal.

$11,100,000 Coming off the books with 5 players.
Smith's $3,750,000 expires.
Vesey's $800,000 expires
Lindgren's $4,500,000 expires
Quick's $1,275,000 expires
Ruhwedl's $775,000 expires

Some real Key RFA's due significant raises.

RFA's
Lafreniere (8mil?)
Miller
Kakko
Cuylle
Jones
Edstrom
Rempe

incorrect re: Trouba. he's gone after this year. friend of a friend played golf with him this summer and he essentially confirmed.

 

[DanielBrassard]

If Igor gets his money and I think he will, the team is going to have to take a step back most likely until his cap hit is no longer an absurd percentage of the cap. Hopefully it goes up like Elliotte Friedman was suggesting. In any case it’s absurd that Igor thinks he is the most valuable player on the team. I say let this play out and see if another team would be willing to go where he wants.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

If Igor gets $12 Mil from the NY Rangers, who then is the sacrificial mule/s? After the Trouba drama i would assume he is staying put till the end of his deal.

$11,100,000 Coming off the books with 5 players.
Smith's $3,750,000 expires.
Vesey's $800,000 expires
Lindgren's $4,500,000 expires
Quick's $1,275,000 expires
Ruhwedl's $775,000 expires

Some real Key RFA's due significant raises.

RFA's
Lafreniere (8mil?)
Miller
Kakko
Cuylle
Jones
Edstrom
Rempe

His wife graduates this year, Trouba will be moved in the offseason.

 

[kovazub94]

If Igor gets $12 Mil from the NY Rangers, who then is the sacrificial mule/s? After the Trouba drama i would assume he is staying put till the end of his deal.

$11,100,000 Coming off the books with 5 players.
Smith's $3,750,000 expires.
Vesey's $800,000 expires
Lindgren's $4,500,000 expires
Quick's $1,275,000 expires
Ruhwedl's $775,000 expires

Some real Key RFA's due significant raises.

RFA's
Lafreniere (8mil?)
Miller
Kakko
Cuylle
Jones
Edstrom
Rempe

Trouba will be gone after this season - I think it's pretty clear based on his statements. But if we're talking about sacrificial lamb (is it a mule now for kids lol?) then my bet would be Kakko.

 

[IDvsEGO]

If Igor gets $12 Mil from the NY Rangers, who then is the sacrificial mule/s? After the Trouba drama i would assume he is staying put till the end of his deal.

$11,100,000 Coming off the books with 5 players.
Smith's $3,750,000 expires.
Vesey's $800,000 expires
Lindgren's $4,500,000 expires
Quick's $1,275,000 expires
Ruhwedl's $775,000 expires

Some real Key RFA's due significant raises.

RFA's
Lafreniere (8mil?)
Miller
Kakko
Cuylle
Jones
Edstrom
Rempe

Earmark Laf for 8.5
Cuylle id say gets 2.1-2.5
Kakko is either gone or 4m-6m no in between
Jones is probably 3x3
Edstrom gets maybe 1.5
Rempe 1.2

 

[kovazub94]

Earmark Laf for 8.5
Cuylle id say gets 2.1-2.5
Kakko is either gone or 4m-6m no in between
Jones is probably 3x3
Edstrom gets maybe 1.5
Rempe 1.2

Jones won't get anywhere near that $3

 

[IDvsEGO]

Trouba will be gone after this season - I think it's pretty clear based on his statements. But if we're talking about sacrificial lamb (is it a mule now for kids lol?) then my bet would be Kakko.

Kakko coming off the books is under 3 million. In his best possible production season (note I’m high on him) I still don’t see him getting more 5m.
That’s not a sacrifice, that’s just dumb. A sacrifice is moving ck, moving Trocheck or Mika, or Panarin.

 

[NYR Viper]

Honestly, and this won't be popular, but it's possible Drury and his team could choose to move on From Chytil in the off-season if he has a good year. There may still be concerns over his health and they may be able to sign a veteran center on a short term deal for cheaper than $4.375m per season. The ever discussed Yanni Gourde is a UFA this upcoming off-season.

Trade Chytil for a young, cost controlled LD and sign Gourde?

 

[kovazub94]

Kakko coming off the books is under 3 million. In his best possible production season (note I’m high on him) I still don’t see him getting more 5m.
That’s not a sacrifice, that’s just dumb. A sacrifice is moving ck, moving Trocheck or Mika, or Panarin.

Sorry, I don't see losing any of these if the alternative is Kakko, dumb (in your view) or not.

Honestly, and this won't be popular, but it's possible Drury and his team could choose to move on From Chytil in the off-season if he has a good year. There may still be concerns over his health and they may be able to sign a veteran center on a short term deal for cheaper than $4.375m per season. The ever discussed Yanni Gourde is a UFA this upcoming off-season.

Trade Chytil for a young, cost controlled LD and sign Gourde?

Gourde will sign for under $4 or about?

 

[Greg02]

Honestly, and this won't be popular, but it's possible Drury and his team could choose to move on From Chytil in the off-season if he has a good year. There may still be concerns over his health and they may be able to sign a veteran center on a short term deal for cheaper than $4.375m per season. The ever discussed Yanni Gourde is a UFA this upcoming off-season.

Trade Chytil for a young, cost controlled LD and sign Gourde?

This is a sane thought.

I hate it.

 

[NYR Viper]

This is a sane thought.

I hate it.

I don't love it but I could see the rationale...

 

[IDvsEGO]

Sorry, I don't see losing any of these if the alternative is Kakko, dumb (in your view) or not.


Gourde will sign for under $4 or about?

I’m not saying the alternative is losing Kakko. I’m saying Kakko doesn’t really change the salary math that much.

 

[SA16]

Honestly, and this won't be popular, but it's possible Drury and his team could choose to move on From Chytil in the off-season if he has a good year. There may still be concerns over his health and they may be able to sign a veteran center on a short term deal for cheaper than $4.375m per season. The ever discussed Yanni Gourde is a UFA this upcoming off-season.

Trade Chytil for a young, cost controlled LD and sign Gourde?

I cannot imagine any scenario this happens regardless of his performance because his trade value is going to be lower than it should be due to perceived injury risk.

 

[kovazub94]

I’m not saying the alternative is losing Kakko. I’m saying Kakko doesn’t really change the salary math that much.

Of course he does. His internal replacements if needed would come in at about $1m while in even conservative estimates he’s going to be close to $4. Let’s say the difference is about $2.5m. Between cap increase and “losing” Trouba, Lindgren, Smith and this $2.5m for Kakko IMO this is all cap space that would be needed to address Shesterkin, Lafreniere and Miller without losing much else.

 

[kovazub94]

I cannot imagine any scenario this happens regardless of his performance because his trade value is going to be lower than it should be due to perceived injury risk.

If he’ll get to have a healthy year these concerns could be largely reduced. But in this case the Rangers would likely put a big trade premium on moving a young center with top-6 upside on $4.5m deal

 

[IDvsEGO]

If he’ll get to have a healthy year these concerns could be largely reduced. But in this case the Rangers would likely put a big trade premium on moving a young center with top-6 upside on $4.5m deal

This is where the board in general drives me crazy.
If chytil is healthy, let’s move him as a young center who’s out performing his contract, and by extension get “worse” at a position of weakness, and be forced to pay a ufa for a vet who likely performs worse for equal money.
This is robbing Peter to pay Paul.

 

[SA16]

This is where the board in general drives me crazy.
If chytil is healthy, let’s move him as a young center who’s out performing his contract, and by extension get “worse” at a position of weakness, and be forced to pay a ufa for a vet who likely performs worse for equal money.
This is robbing Peter to pay Paul.

If you need to trade/let go all these useful pieces on decent deals so you have the ability to wildly overpay a goalie the obvious solution is not to wildly overpay the goalie.

 

[IDvsEGO]

If you need to trade/let go all these useful pieces on decent deals so you have the ability to wildly overpay a goalie the obvious solution is not to wildly overpay the goalie.

like it’s not even that tough. The market was fairly set. Now it’s locked. Igor isn’t resetting it. His deal would be an outlier. Every other legit 1a goalie is now locked up. And none of them have come close to 10m. So 11 is an extreme outlier. 12 would just be a bad contract.

The rangers need to pull the 11m offer and go down to 9.5, and tell him it’s take it or leave it. He walks he walks.

 

[kovazub94]

This is where the board in general drives me crazy.
If chytil is healthy, let’s move him as a young center who’s out performing his contract, and by extension get “worse” at a position of weakness, and be forced to pay a ufa for a vet who likely performs worse for equal money.
This is robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I get it but specific to Chytil the Rangers might think that future salary and health concerns (even if somewhat more muted / remote) could outweigh the benefit. It can go both ways and potential trade return and UFA market would also be significant considerations. Too many unknowns and too much guessing at this point

 

[SA16]

like it’s not even that tough. The market was fairly set. Now it’s locked. Igor isn’t resetting it. His deal would be an outlier. Every other legit 1a goalie is now locked up. And none of them have come close to 10m. So 11 is an extreme outlier. 12 would just be a bad contract.

The rangers need to pull the 11m offer and go down to 9.5, and tell him it’s take it or leave it. He walks he walks.

The RFA/UFA thing is an excuse too. Is it true? Yes. Is it worth 3-4M per year? Absolutely not. If it was that huge of a difference all of the other goalies who just signed would have been completely negligent in not taking a 1-2 year deal to get themselves in that situation too. Should he be compared to Price/Bob? Those weren't good contracts so why match them?

 

[kovazub94]

like it’s not even that tough. The market was fairly set. Now it’s locked. Igor isn’t resetting it. His deal would be an outlier. Every other legit 1a goalie is now locked up. And none of them have come close to 10m. So 11 is an extreme outlier. 12 would just be a bad contract.

The rangers need to pull the 11m offer and go down to 9.5, and tell him it’s take it or leave it. He walks he walks.

I mean there are still Bobrovsky and Vasilevskiy contracts to consider both of whom are closer to Shesterkin level than the rest. The point is that $11m is really in line for the best goalie for the next 8 years and should be reconsidered by the Russian. If he needs to save face make it $11.25 or something ala Swayman negotiations (but maybe offset it with more team friendly structure).

 

[bernmeister]

Jones won't get anywhere near that $3

Jones = less
KK 3.75-4.25 dep on term

Kakko coming off the books is under 3 million. In his best possible production season (note I’m high on him) I still don’t see him getting more 5m.
That’s not a sacrifice, that’s just dumb. A sacrifice is moving ck, moving Trocheck or Mika, or Panarin.

Lindgren + Trou covers Shesty if we have to extend b'c no trade
4-ish+ cap increase holds the fort elsewhere, mostly

sell high on bread if we get stud young Ds in return