Roster Building Thread - Part XII

[KirkAlbuquerque]

We don’t need both Trochek and Mika on PP1

 

[cwede]

Lesch, Belzile, Harpur clear

 

[Harbour Dog]

Not trying Lafreniere on PP1 because it's good enough already is kind of a shitty mentality for the team to take. Why not try to put the best possible unit together? If they try Laf there, and then decide Zibanejad is a better option, then what have we lost?

It honestly feels more like not wanting to upset veterans to me, because it's pretty obvious to anybody with eyes that Laf is a more dangerous offensive player than Zibanejad.

 

[SA16]

If you think PP1 gets stale just wait until you see how "stale" a PP2 unit with worse players looks longterm.

 

[SA16]

Not trying Lafreniere on PP1 because it's good enough already is kind of a shitty mentality for the team to take. Why not try to put the best possible unit together? If they try Laf there, and then decide Zibanejad is a better option, then what have we lost?

It honestly feels more like not wanting to upset veterans to me, because it's pretty obvious to anybody with eyes that Laf is a more dangerous offensive player than Zibanejad.

Potentially games and points in the standings? Also a bit disingenuous to say it's "good enough already" like it's some average PP when it was the 3rd best PP in the league last year. If it was around average then I'm sure their good enough wouldn't be enough and they'd try something else. With that attitude why ever stick with any pair/combo in any situation because you can always experiment to see if something is better? Except there is limited games/times and you can cause issues and create losses.

 

[The Undertaker]

Really just more of the same after the most predictable offseason ever. Hard to get excited about this team and front office. They'll be good but not sniffing a cup.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Potentially games and points in the standings? Also a bit disingenuous to say it's "good enough already" like it's some average PP when it was the 3rd best PP in the league last year. If it was around average then I'm sure their good enough wouldn't be enough and they'd try something else. With that attitude why ever stick with any pair/combo in any situation because you can always experiment to see if something is better? Except there is limited games/times and you can cause issues and create losses.

And if we had a slightly better PP against Florida, then perhaps it would have won us a game or two we lost at a time that matters a lot more than the first month of the season.

3rd best or not, there's practically no cost to trying to improve it.

 

[SA16]

And if we had a slightly better PP against Florida, then perhaps it would have won us a game or two we lost at a time that matters a lot more than the first month of the season.

Significantly more likely any change would make the PP worse than making it better given there is a lot more room for it to go down than up. If you want to experiment with different units or with Laf on PP1 the time to do it is when you get PPs when the game is already out of hand in either direction. They just had the 11th best PP% of the last 20 years.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Wow, have PP%'s really shot up that much the last few years? I'm on mobile and not going to try looking it up, but I assume our percentage last season would have put us 2nd or 3rd each of the last 3 or 4 years at least?

I'd be fine with trying Laf at times like that, if that's what would convince the team to do it. And yeah, I agree there is a better chance it brings the efficiency down a little than raise it a little; it just feels like a freeroll.

Even if we played him consistently there for the first 10 games, it never worked, and managed to cost us like 4 points in the standings. That feels worth it to me, to potentially score an extra couple goals in the playoffs.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Not to mention, after seeing how Laf upped his game against Florida and tried to carry the offense. I want that guy on the ice when games matter.

 

[Chytilmania]

We don’t need both Trochek and Mika on PP1

Mika is a tough one. When he gets hot on the PP his whole game is great. When he sucks on the PP the rest of his game seems to take a hit. Trocheck is elite at faceoffs and puck retrieval. Best bet would be put Panarin in Mika's spot and Laf in Panarin's spot. But then does Mika ever get going offensively?

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Lesch, Belzile, Harpur clear

NOOOOOOOOOOOO

 

[TheDirtyH]

I just think that as one core group ages, you need to spread those minutes and especially it presents an opportunity to share the puck and offensive rhythm deeper in your lineup.

Trochek and Mika, playing PP and PK and top 6 minutes leaves very little for Chytil for example. He's on spot duty, especially since he's not a 'traditional' checker. I think keeping Chytil, Lafreniere, and Kakko in the flow of them game more, and especially giving them more time on the attack with the puck on their sticks is/was/will continue to be advantageous in the long run.

I also think it pushes the vets to incorporate their teammates more and maybe if Mika can't just point to his decent counting stats to nullify his horrific 5v5 output, he'd be a little more motivated to find goals outside the PP.

 

[SA16]

Let's see Mika's 5v5 pts/60 vs shooting percentage and secondary assist rate since 2020.

Season	Total Points/60	Second Assists/60	Shots/60	S%
20202021​	2.21​	0.57​	6.47​	12.66​
20212022​	2.12​	0.49​	6.86​	9.52​
20222023​	2.19​	0.38​	6.75​	13.01​
20232024​	1.41​	0.11​	6.73​	6.72​

Oh, so it's just the two stats that are highly prone to variability that dropped in one year? Shot rate almost no change. If you want to look at his "Scoring Chances" and "High Danger" chances since the next comment is always "but he's taking worse shots" well those basically haven't changed either. If you want to say his line is bad well they had yet another season of a 54% GF% which is right in line with what he always does as a Ranger.

Most obvious 5v5 bounce back ever and then it'll be attributed to him working in the offseason or something instead of just random variation. Claude Giroux did the exact same thing when he somehow had a season of *0.94 pts/60* in 16-17 which also concided with about a halving of his shooting percentage and minimal secondaries and such and then lo and behold he's had four seasons of 2+ pts/60 since then including his literal best season directly after (I'm sure there are many more he's just the first one I knew off the top of my head).

Also, if the PP gives Mika confidence and his game falls off a cliff when he's not doing well on the PP then why does he have a 1.57 pts/60 at 5v5 the last 3 years in games he has 1+ PPP but a 2.11 5v5 pts/60 at 5v5 the last 3 years in games he has 0 PPP? He also has a 2.59 pts/60 when he's on a 3+ game drought with a single PPP since this appears to be a complete falsehood.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Kreider
Panarin - Zibanejad - Laf
Fox

Collect Stanley cups.

It’s so simple.

Zib in the bumper will would score 50 goals

 

[kovazub94]

Not trying Lafreniere on PP1 because it's good enough already is kind of a shitty mentality for the team to take. Why not try to put the best possible unit together? If they try Laf there, and then decide Zibanejad is a better option, then what have we lost?

It honestly feels more like not wanting to upset veterans to me, because it's pretty obvious to anybody with eyes that Laf is a more dangerous offensive player than Zibanejad.

IMO, this is the “better is an enemy of good” situation. PP1 (both personnel and the structure) has been one of the best in the league for a few years now. Sucks for Lafreniere but this is where team comes first. If I wanted Laviolette to address a persistent issue - it’s not messing with tre top unit but make PP2 unit more functional - actually any type of functional because it’s been a disaster for a long while now. Jones, Lafreniere, Chytil and R Smith is a good place to start in terms of personnel. Maybe get one of Cuylle, Edstrom / Rempe to be net front presence and take it from there.

 

[kovazub94]

Let's see Mika's 5v5 pts/60 vs shooting percentage and secondary assist rate since 2020.

Season	Total Points/60	Second Assists/60	Shots/60	S%
20202021​	2.21​	0.57​	6.47​	12.66​
20212022​	2.12​	0.49​	6.86​	9.52​
20222023​	2.19​	0.38​	6.75​	13.01​
20232024​	1.41​	0.11​	6.73​	6.72​

Oh, so it's just the two stats that are highly prone to variability that dropped in one year? Shot rate almost no change. If you want to look at his "Scoring Chances" and "High Danger" chances since the next comment is always "but he's taking worse shots" well those basically haven't changed either. If you want to say his line is bad well they had yet another season of a 54% GF% which is right in line with what he always does as a Ranger.

Most obvious 5v5 bounce back ever and then it'll be attributed to him working in the offseason or something instead of just random variation. Claude Giroux did the exact same thing when he somehow had a season of *0.94 pts/60* in 16-17 which also concided with about a halving of his shooting percentage and minimal secondaries and such and then lo and behold he's had four seasons of 2+ pts/60 since then including his literal best season directly after (I'm sure there are many more he's just the first one I knew off the top of my head).

Also, if the PP gives Mika confidence and his game falls off a cliff when he's not doing well on the PP then why does he have a 1.57 pts/60 at 5v5 the last 3 years in games he has 1+ PPP but a 2.11 5v5 pts/60 at 5v5 the last 3 years in games he has 0 PPP? He also has a 2.59 pts/60 when he's on a 3+ game drought with a single PPP since this appears to be a complete falsehood.

Your comment about offseason was obviously tongue in cheek but IMO R Smith addition is exactly what the doctor ordered. Zibanejad and Kreider do have some games when they look lackluster where Smith is a type of player who unquestionably should be able to keep up with this duo, but also brings his compete level on a daily basis that should help minimize those low energy games from his new linemates.

 

[kovazub94]

@NYR Viper ESPN+ has the replay of the Boston game.

 

[eco's bones]

IMO, this is the “better is an enemy of good” situation. PP1 (both personnel and the structure) has been one of the best in the league for a few years now. Sucks for Lafreniere but this is where team comes first. If I wanted Laviolette to address a persistent issue - it’s not messing with tre top unit but make PP2 unit more functional - actually any type of functional because it’s been a disaster for a long while now. Jones, Lafreniere, Chytil and R Smith is a good place to start in terms of personnel. Maybe get one of Cuylle, Edstrom / Rempe to be net front presence and take it from there.

To have an effective second power play unit we'll need a net front guy like Cuylle, Rempe, Edstrom like you said or players making timing runs towards the net as someone's shooting. A whole lot of goals are scored by taking the goalies eyes away. You need point guys who can get pucks through. Do I think Jones could be that kind of player on a second unit? I do but the caveat is he's played 69 NHL games and has 0 power play goals and only 1 assist. So while I think he has the skills he hasn't done it yet though the next caveat is he hasn't had a lot of opportunity yet either. Right now he lives in the land of ? mark. The problems I'm seen from the units with Lafreniere, Chytil, Kakko, Wheeler last year is puck control and net front presence. Guy like Trouba and Miller haven't been great at moving the puck around either. Trouba has a hard shot....most of the time it's been either off the mark or been blocked and he's a bit of a one trick pony. He's not great at playmaking so he defers to his shot way too much. Miller is not a great playmaker either.

The first unit move the puck around with tic-tac-toe one time passing. When they're doing that well opponents defenses start thinking about running up the white flag and goalies are scrambling from one side to the other. With Kreider in front it's panic time for them and it can be demoralizing in a 'we better be careful not to take any more penalties' kind of way.

 

[SA16]

There are almost no teams that have an effective second powerplay unit. There are some that use two equal units but that is largely teams with very balanced talent and no superstars.

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

I know it sucks for Lafreniere but I wouldn't be messing around with our first power play unit. It's one of the more lethal in the NHL and personally I don't think Smith, Chytil, Othmann or Jones come that near to the level of any of the 5 on that unit or Lafreniere. I don't see a reason to fix something that doesn't need to be fixed. The second unit in any case is just not going to get as much time as the first unit. Messing around with these units though will likely drop overall production.

I don’t disagree with this, but if the PP gets stale at any point during the season, swapping in Laf for Trochek should be the first thing they try.

 

[SA16]

I don’t disagree with this, but if the PP gets stale at any point during the season, swapping in Laf for Trochek should be the first thing they try.

What is he going to do in the bumper role when Panarin is controlling the PP from the right side and he's unable to one time his passes being a lefty? Or are they totally changing the unit around to accommodate him?

I don't think we need to worry about it "going stale." They've had this structure for like four years now and it's been getting more effective. Of course, it's going to have stretches of ineffectiveness. That's just basic math. Even a 25% PP would be expected to go 0-10 more than 5% of the time (in actuality higher than that due to times the PP ends early due to penalty, the game ending, them drawing the penalty while on the PK so it's short etc.).

 

[pld459666]

R Smith shouldn't see a single second of PP time this year on either the 1st or 2nd unit.

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

What is he going to do in the bumper role when Panarin is controlling the PP from the right side and he's unable to one time his passes being a lefty? Or are they totally changing the unit around to accommodate him?

I don't think we need to worry about it "going stale." They've had this structure for like four years now and it's been getting more effective. Of course, it's going to have stretches of ineffectiveness. That's just basic math. Even a 25% PP would be expected to go 0-10 more than 5% of the time (in actuality higher than that due to times the PP ends early due to penalty, the game ending, them drawing the penalty while on the PK so it's short etc.).

He’s going to adapt and succeed, or fail. Doesn’t have to be for Trochek either. I was more trying to make the point that Laf is the first in line if a change needs to be made.

Maybe a good way to work him in is to let him play on the first unit in non-crucial situations. Garbage time, or if we’re leading/losing by a lot, etc.

 

[NYR Viper]

@NYR Viper ESPN+ has the replay of the Boston game.

Thank you! I was looking for it earlier but I’ll definitely watch it tomorrow!