We played 2/3 of our season last year with Girardi-Holden-Klein/Clendening/Kampfer as our RHD depth. We will start the season with Shattenkirk-Smith-Pionk/ADA on the ride side. As far as what I've heard and seen from Pionk/ADA, our 3RHD will be better than our 1RHD from last year.
Skjei has improved as a player and he'll be getting more minutes. McDonagh no longer has to play from a deficit by being on a pair with Girardi. Bereglazov has to play or he's rightfully leaving for the KHL instead of being blocked by Staal. How the 3LD spot will shake out is unknown but even the option of a capable 3LD instead of Staal is an improvement from last year's icing of Staal for 20 minutes
improvement-improvement
improvement-improvement
improvement-improvement
Marc Staal
That's not a "Shattenkirk offsets Stepan"
This is if everything falls in the best case scenario. For example:
Shattenkirk had, by far, a career year last season. What if he reverts to his old numbers? Are ~40-45 points worth it if he's playing as poorly in his own end as he did in Washington?
What if the issue with McD is his (repeated) shoulder injuries rather than his lining up next to Girardi? There is no guarantee that McD takes a huge leap forward next season.
What if the Smith we get is the one who was getting scratched before the trade last season?
What if Skjei has a sophomore slump?
What if Pionk/Bereglazov/ADA aren't ready?
What if our idiot coach STILL plays Staal and Holden 20+ minutes a game and buries Shattenkirk and Skjei at 5/6? Before you laugh, remember Yandle?
This D has more POTENTIAL than last season's unit, but the people already christening it a top unit league wide are all assuming that a LOT of things break our way. I hope they are right, but it's not a given.
I'm also very concerned by the fact that this team is one injury away from another Erik Christensen at #1 C situation again. C has been such a strength for this team ever since Stepan got here. He allowed everyone else to slot into their appropriate roles. Barring a big jump forward from Zib or a big trade, we will be back to the days where middle sixers are asked to handle top six and top line responsibilities.
I don't hate the moves, but Gorton created a BIG hole in this roster. He'd better:
A- have a plan to address that hole at #1C
B- have a backup plan in case one of Zib/Hayes/Miller gets hurt
C- Hope that his gamble pays off (ie: Zib can handle 1C, Lias turns into a better C than Stepan, and/or ADA becomes a difference maker).
I don't think this team is better than last year's team. Gorton didn't fix the holes, he moved them. And on top of that, he created a roster that, if a couple of bad things happen (slumps/injuries), could see this team outside of the playoffs for the first time in years, IMO. That said, I DO think this team is better positioned to improve over the next couple of seasons than last year's group was. Similar short term outlook between this year and last year, but I think this year's group has a better long-term chance at success.