Speculation: Roster Building Thread LXXII: “The Year of the Plague’s” last one...

[Rangers in 7]

Yeah I think the "post PLD" scenario is the one I have a hard time coming to grips with. I can easily see the argument for PLD. A big, rugged, Quebecois center to line up with your big, rugged, Quebecois franchise LW in Lafreniere and possibly RW of the same mold in Gauthier. Game is tailor made to fit with a play-making LW like Lafreniere. Young and entering his prime. Makes tons of sense and I can absolutely justify the cost if it does include Chytil.

That being said, just how much shuffling is this team prepared to do at this stage? Are we really going to deal several young players for PLD just so we can move on from Zib for another young guy? If you put the pieces together with contracts and the rumored desire for a "sooner rather than later" resolution in Columbus, that puts us on a timeline of about 12 months to make it work. Even then that might be pushing it because the closer you get to the end of that span, the closer Zib gets to "just a rental" value. Not likely to fetch you a soon-to-be 2C. Not to mention that's an awful lot of upheaval on a team that, while rebuilding, is also sort of fragile given that they've already lost a number of key vets over the last 12 months.

So I can definitely see the appeal but I have a hard time lining up the rest. Seems like you'd need to land PLD in the next few months in order to give yourself enough time to find an adequate deal for Zibanjead heading into the draft and/or free agency.

i think this is where i am currently at, PLD is a good young center but i just dont see the timeline being right for us

for a team just starting to put it together with alot of young pieces i dont think now is the time, fast forward 2 years and i think thats when this deal makes much more sense. i feel like this is all dependent on chytils development, if he takes a big stride this season i can see the rangers looking to trade zib (even if i hate the idea) for someone of PLD status, a young up an coming stud center. if chytil doesnt step up and start to show flashes i think that puts us in a very precarious situation

 

[TheBloodyNine]

What's Zibs next contract gonna look like? He will get paid, of that I have no doubt, but how much in a flat cap world is he going to get paid? How much more would he be getting paid elsewhere to leave a team like the Rangers who at that time should be competing? Who would be the competing team he would leave for that would have the cap space to pay him handsomely in the flat cap era? And would he want to leave the comforts of New York and the team for them?

What I'm saying here is, brass tacks - what's Zibs next contract considering all these factors? Will he take a bit less to stay? How much is a bit less?

 

[Edge]

Yeah I think the "post PLD" scenario is the one I have a hard time coming to grips with. I can easily see the argument for PLD. A big, rugged, Quebecois center to line up with your big, rugged, Quebecois franchise LW in Lafreniere and possibly RW of the same mold in Gauthier. Game is tailor made to fit with a play-making LW like Lafreniere. Young and entering his prime. Makes tons of sense and I can absolutely justify the cost if it does include Chytil.

That being said, just how much shuffling is this team prepared to do at this stage? Are we really going to deal several young players for PLD just so we can move on from Zib for another young guy? If you put the pieces together with contracts and the rumored desire for a "sooner rather than later" resolution in Columbus, that puts us on a timeline of about 12 months to make it work. Even then that might be pushing it because the closer you get to the end of that span, the closer Zib gets to "just a rental" value. Not likely to fetch you a soon-to-be 2C. Not to mention that's an awful lot of upheaval on a team that, while rebuilding, is also sort of fragile given that they've already lost a number of key vets over the last 12 months.

So I can definitely see the appeal but I have a hard time lining up the rest. Seems like you'd need to land PLD in the next few months in order to give yourself enough time to find an adequate deal for Zibanjead heading into the draft and/or free agency.

I think some of those moves are coming sooner rather than later anyway, it just depends on what the team does post-move.

I think there's probably more juggling adjusting coming than we sometimes realize. Just looking at the defense, we know it's coming.

I guess at the end of the day it probably depends on the player. But when we're talking Eichel or PLD, there's no getting around shuffling. It has to happen. And in both cases your cost probably includes Chytil, and the follow-up move probably costs Zibanejad.

The alternative to that is either the deals people are more lukewarm on, Monahan, Lindholm, etc., and waiting/hoping that Chytil takes that next step sooner rather than later and that Zibanejad proves to be a smart investment at $10 million, well into his 30s.

So at some point, something big probably has to give, or it has to re-invested in.

 

[NYRKing]

I have no doubt Gorton will have an offer for PLD. The timeline is not an issue with him as long as Davidson and/or Panarin have insight on any reason why he wouldn’t fit. We just might not have the best offer unless willing to part with a Chytil and combo of top prospects.

 

[Trxjw]

i think this is where i am currently at, PLD is a good young center but i just dont see the timeline being right for us

for a team just starting to put it together with alot of young pieces i dont think now is the time, fast forward 2 years and i think thats when this deal makes much more sense. i feel like this is all dependent on chytils development, if he takes a big stride this season i can see the rangers looking to trade zib (even if i hate the idea) for someone of PLD status, a young up an coming stud center. if chytil doesnt step up and start to show flashes i think that puts us in a very precarious situation

Yeah I mean if I was going to look at this team and try to pinpoint a center to replace Zibanejad for the forseeable future, PLD would absolutely be on the short list. Then when I consider the cost of having to surrender a guy like Chytil, thus opening up a hole on the 3rd line, it gets tougher. Then when I think about having to do all of this within the next 12 months, I start to get worried. Then again, Gorton seems to have ice in his veins while I'm just a dude. I'm sure they've been running scenarios and having conversations to see what moves could be available.

 

[NYR Viper]

How wonderful would it be to see Howden take a nice step this year and show he can handle the 3C role. That would solve quite a bit. Especially if the move is:

Chytil + for PLD
Zib for futures

PLD
Strome (for 1 more year)
Howden
______

 

[nyr__1994]

What's Zibs next contract gonna look like? He will get paid, of that I have no doubt, but how much in a flat cap world is he going to get paid? How much more would he be getting paid elsewhere to leave a team like the Rangers who at that time should be competing? Who would be the competing team he would leave for that would have the cap space to pay him handsomely in the flat cap era? And would he want to leave the comforts of New York and the team for them?

What I'm saying here is, brass tacks - what's Zibs next contract considering all these factors? Will he take a bit less to stay? How much is a bit less?

I was thinking the exact same thing. What teams in 2 years are going to have the cap space and cash to fork over a 7 year deal at $10m or more? Many teams will be cash strapped as we come out of the pandemic.

If I am the NYR I am looking at the following as an acceptable contract:

Term - 5 Years
AAV - $7.5-8m
Full NMC for first 3 years
Partial NTC for last 2
Frontloaded and as bonus heavy as possible

Offer that up as soon as you can and the piece of mind for having a guaranteed contract for the next 6 years may be enticing.

 

[Edge]

Yeah I mean if I was going to look at this team and try to pinpoint a center to replace Zibanejad for the forseeable future, PLD would absolutely be on the short list. Then when I consider the cost of having to surrender a guy like Chytil, thus opening up a hole on the 3rd line, it gets tougher. Then when I think about having to do all of this within the next 12 months, I start to get worried. Then again, Gorton seems to have ice in his veins while I'm just a dude. I'm sure they've been running scenarios and having conversations to see what moves could be available.

We're kind of in a weird spot with Zibanejad.

On the one hand, he's arguably the best center we've had in anywhere from 20-25 years. And, relatively speaking, he's still young at 27.

But there's such a wide gap there now between him and the next group of players (six years older than Chytil, 8 years older than Kakko and Lafreniere), and his next contract comes up at a really awkward time in some ways.

Do they invest megabucks in the 29 year old center who is that much older than your emerging core? Can they even do that in a world where you've already given big dollars to similarly aged players like Panarin, Kreider, and Trouba? Do they want to go that direction, or are there are major concerns about the head, neck and upper body damage he's taken in recent years.

From a contract standpoint, some of this goes back to what we've talked about as a board --- at some point we can't have everything we want without sacrifices. We can't sign Panarin because players like him don't come around often, and then sign Kreider for the same reasons, and then sign Trouba because our defense needs him, and then give second contracts to the young franchise-level players we always wanted to have, etc. etc.

To be clear, none of those ideas all belong to any one person. They are an amalgamation of different opinions and points of view from all of us. But they do share a collective reluctance to ever part with anything.

And make no mistake, at some point we're going to have part with players we don't want to part with. Either that, or we have to settle for the guys who don't send chills up and down our spine to fill certain roles.

But, at the end of the day, there's probably going to quite a few players we really like who just miss out on being part of our championship window, or players we just can't squeeze into the budget.

Having said that, I think there is a path to having both PLD and Mika in the same lineup. But it requires Mika taking a discount to be part of what could be a dynasty, and it requires shuffling other pieces around (which jives with my earlier point that significant shuffling is coming, it's just a matter of who is being shuffled).

 

[Rangers in 7]

Yeah I mean if I was going to look at this team and try to pinpoint a center to replace Zibanejad for the forseeable future, PLD would absolutely be on the short list. Then when I consider the cost of having to surrender a guy like Chytil, thus opening up a hole on the 3rd line, it gets tougher. Then when I think about having to do all of this within the next 12 months, I start to get worried. Then again, Gorton seems to have ice in his veins while I'm just a dude. I'm sure they've been running scenarios and having conversations to see what moves could be available.

i think the bigger question has to be why PLD, if im going all in i bypass him and move for eichel, if that means giving up chytil +++ i could care less....then flipping zib for a younger player thats more of a good #2 plus other assets makes sense to me

 

[Rangers in 7]

How wonderful would it be to see Howden take a nice step this year and show he can handle the 3C role. That would solve quite a bit. Especially if the move is:

Chytil + for PLD
Zib for futures

PLD
Strome (for 1 more year)
Howden
______

that makes the center position much weaker

 

[TheBloodyNine]

With one year left on his contract after this season, you essentially need to trade him ASAP in order to maximize what you would get back. How does that fit the timeline?

 

[Raspewtin]

How wonderful would it be to see Howden take a nice step this year and show he can handle the 3C role. That would solve quite a bit. Especially if the move is:

Chytil + for PLD
Zib for futures

PLD
Strome (for 1 more year)
Howden
______

I really really want Howden to be good but this center group.......is worse than what we have now.

 

[Edge]

I really really want Howden to be good but this center group.......is worse than what we have now.

I think your Zib for futures would have to include a center as part of the return. There's no way around that. So actually inserting a name that would probably help.

For example, if they had the cap room, a team like Vegas would be a good match for the Rangers. So are you looking at someone like Glass as the fill in the blank for that "futures" spot? That changes things a little.

It's hard to imagine a PLD trade that doesn't include Chytil. But it's not inherently impossible either.

I don't see the Jackets asking for ADA. But are they interested in Buch and Lindgren as NHL players who are young, controllable, and not as likely to bolt Ohio?

Do they like Lundkvist as a prospect who is likely to step in for them sooner rather than later?

We could see something that looks similar to that, maybe with certain pieces added or swapped. It's hard to say.

The Rangers can overpay, it's just a matter of how much, which account they want to draw from, and whether the amount tickles the fancy of Columbus.

 

[SA16]

How wonderful would it be to see Howden take a nice step this year and show he can handle the 3C role. That would solve quite a bit. Especially if the move is:

Chytil + for PLD
Zib for futures

PLD
Strome (for 1 more year)
Howden
______

It would be nice but I would like to see him be able to handle the 4C role before he can handle the 3C role. So far he has done neither.

 

[SA16]

I was thinking the exact same thing. What teams in 2 years are going to have the cap space and cash to fork over a 7 year deal at $10m or more? Many teams will be cash strapped as we come out of the pandemic.

If I am the NYR I am looking at the following as an acceptable contract:

Term - 5 Years
AAV - $7.5-8m
Full NMC for first 3 years
Partial NTC for last 2
Frontloaded and as bonus heavy as possible

Offer that up as soon as you can and the piece of mind for having a guaranteed contract for the next 6 years may be enticing.

There is zero chance he gets only 7.5M-8M without a full NMC and nowhere near max years unless his next two years are severely worse than his last two years.

 

[Trxjw]

We're kind of in a weird spot with Zibanejad.

On the one hand, he's arguably the best center we've had in anywhere from 20-25 years. And, relatively speaking, he's still young at 27.

But there's such a wide gap there now between him and the next group of players (six years older than Chytil, 8 years older than Kakko and Lafreniere), and his next contract comes up at a really awkward time in some ways.

Do they invest megabucks in the 29 year old center who is that much older than your emerging core? Can they even do that in a world where you've already given big dollars to similarly aged players like Panarin, Kreider, and Trouba? Do they want to go that direction, or are there are major concerns about the head, neck and upper body damage he's taken in recent years.

From a contract standpoint, some of this goes back to what we've talked about as a board --- at some point we can't have everything we want without sacrifices. We can't sign Panarin because players like him don't come around often, and then sign Kreider for the same reasons, and then sign Trouba because our defense needs him, and then give second contracts to the young franchise-level players we always wanted to have, etc. etc.

To be clear, none of those ideas all belong to any one person. They are an amalgamation of different opinions and points of view from all of us. But they do share a collective reluctance to ever part with anything.

And make no mistake, at some point we're going to have part with players we don't want to part with. Either that, or we have to settle for the guys who don't send chills up and down our spine to fill certain roles.

But, at the end of the day, there's probably going to quite a few players we really like who just miss out on being part of our championship window, or players we just can't squeeze into the budget.

Having said that, I think there is a path to having both PLD and Mika in the same lineup. But it requires Mika taking a discount to be part of what could be a dynasty, and it requires shuffling other pieces around (which jives with my earlier point that significant shuffling is coming, it's just a matter of who is being shuffled).

All of which makes sense. Though I have a hard time seeing the money available for Zib, even at a discount, with PLD in the fold and the evolution of the young core players. I think if you're not going to commit the money to him while trying to fill in the 2 and 3 center spots with younger guys or vets on cheaper contracts, then you're going to have to bite the bullet and deal him. So that begs the question, do they see a Zibanejad trade as the kind where they need to hit a homer on the return? Or do they feel like they can hit a double and see how the rest of the inning plays out? If it's the former, that's a heck of a lot to action on in a short window. If it's the latter, then there's less pressure for them to capitalize on Zib while he still has term on his deal and thus has the kind of value that might return a "near-term" player.

Eichel is a known quantity, so in my eyes he's the kind of player I'm more inclined to crack open the piggy-bank for. PLD could be a 80-point center. Eichel is an 80 point center -- with certainly more ceiling with a stacked roster like ours. Yes he's likely more expensive and carries a higher contract, but I can't imagine an 80pt PLD is getting less than $9m per from his next team on a long term deal. So it's kind of a wash for me. The initial trade cost being the wild card of course.

So it's really not about having to part ways with guys for me. I understand that's the reality of things when you have elite talent to keep around. It's the question of "can the team realistically make all these trades while not screwing it up along the way" that's eating at me. I can see a easily see a situation where this team spends the next 4 years trying to find a viable Strome replacement after hitching their wagon to PLD at the cost of some high end pieces while whiffing on the return for Zib. Then again, I could also see a team like Vegas looking at a full season and two playoff runs with Zib at $5.35m and justifying that upgrade cost as they send Krebs or Glass our way in a package. Then giving Zib the money freed up from Reilly in 2022 on a long-term deal to skate with Stone and Pietrangelo into their late 30's as their core.

It's a case of extremes in my eyes, and I'm sure it'll land somewhere in the middle, but it's something I think about.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Id sign Zibanejad at 7.5x7 or 8 if it meant giving him a full NMC in a millisecond.

Like seriously if that security is what he wants, he can have it. Thats a massive discount. The end of that deal will look ugly like they all do but you're going to get some really good years at a really big discount.

 

[Fitzy]

It’s tough to assume the late end of a contract will be ugly because you never really know for sure if a player is gonna age like Mike/Brad Richards or Martin St Louis

 

[Ghost of jas]

I wish to be on record as being very sad we have to discuss the possibilty of moving Mika.

 

[Mac n Gs]

As much as I like Chytil, Dubois is a bona fide #1C that’s only 22 years old, fits our style perfectly, and would be the long-term C option to grow with our young core.

It’ll cost a lot, and I could see CBJ wanting 2 NHL pieces for him plus another pick and prospect. It’s also a much easier decision to sign PLD long-term than it is Zibanejad since you’d be locking him up from 24/25 years old onward throughout the entirety of his prime. Acquiring him now also gives you a two year window to go for it while Zibanejad, Fox, Kakko, and Lafreniere are all on cheap contracts.

 

[Edge]

All of which makes sense. Though I have a hard time seeing the money available for Zib, even at a discount, with PLD in the fold and the evolution of the young core players. I think if you're not going to commit the money to him while trying to fill in the 2 and 3 center spots with younger guys or vets on cheaper contracts, then you're going to have to bite the bullet and deal him. So that begs the question, do they see a Zibanejad trade as the kind where they need to hit a homer on the return? Or do they feel like they can hit a double and see how the rest of the inning plays out? If it's the former, that's a heck of a lot to action on in a short window. If it's the latter, then there's less pressure for them to capitalize on Zib while he still has term on his deal and thus has the kind of value that might return a "near-term" player.

Eichel is a known quantity, so in my eyes he's the kind of player I'm more inclined to crack open the piggy-bank for. PLD could be a 80-point center. Eichel is an 80 point center -- with certainly more ceiling with a stacked roster like ours. Yes he's likely more expensive and carries a higher contract, but I can't imagine an 80pt PLD is getting less than $9m per from his next team on a long term deal. So it's kind of a wash for me. The initial trade cost being the wild card of course.

So it's really not about having to part ways with guys for me. I understand that's the reality of things when you have elite talent to keep around. It's the question of "can the team realistically make all these trades while not screwing it up along the way" that's eating at me. I can see a easily see a situation where this team spends the next 4 years trying to find a viable Strome replacement after hitching their wagon to PLD at the cost of some high end pieces while whiffing on the return for Zib. Then again, I could also see a team like Vegas looking at a full season and two playoff runs with Zib at $5.35m and justifying that upgrade cost as they send Krebs or Glass our way in a package. Then giving Zib the money freed up from Reilly in 2022 on a long-term deal to skate with Stone and Pietrangelo into their late 30's as their core.

It's a case of extremes in my eyes, and I'm sure it'll land somewhere in the middle, but it's something I think about.

I think they have to get good value in any potential deal for Zib --- and that means someone with growth potential. Without an extension place, you're probably getting someone who brings question marks at this time. So there is that to consider. I think the return could also depend on the timing and what they already have in place.

For example, for shits and giggles let's say the Rangers traded for PLD and somehow still had Chytil and he blossomed. They might be more inclined to put their eggs into a basket for a player like Glass, feeling he at least backfills a hole left by Chytil moving up. I'm not saying it has to be Glass, but someone like that --- 22/23, has upside, but hasn't quite taken that next leap.

Now if we start getting into Eichel territory, the cost goes up. So now we really start getting into the talks where keeping Chytil out of the deal becomes incredibly difficult and you're probably looking at a 3-4 player ask, plus a pick, with those players being higher up in the food chain. And that depends on whether the Rangers think that Eichel is as good of a fit or worth the extra cost.

You could very well have a situation where the Rangers feel the 3 pieces they give up for even a potential 70-75 point Dubois is a better deal than giving up 4 or 5 pieces for an 80-90 point Eichel when you factor in the personnel cost and the different in salary. In other words, if Dubois costs them an average of $7 million over the next 8 years, is that a better deal than Eichel costing them $10 million over the remainder of his contract? I don't know the answer to that.

PLD's deal with also depend on whether he actually gets to 80 points before his next deal. He could be trending that way with a pair of 70 point seasons, but it remains to be seen how the next number would look.

The Rangers have many potential paths ahead of them, and they could ultimately decide to pass on all of them. The general feeling outside the organization seems to be that Dubois is going to be at the top of their list based on the perceived fit. But that's an outsider's perspective.

 

[TheDirtyH]

With Lafreniere, Panarin, and Kakko in the long term plans I have very little concern about whether PLD could put up big numbers. I actually don't even care if he does. If he's more like a Coutourier, O'Reiley, Toews, or Bergeron I don't think you're losing value just because he's not a p/g player. I like the fit even better than Eichel. With PLD you get a very young two-way force. We need better 200ft forwards on this roster and his trajectory suggests he'll be among the next wave of elite centers in that category, if not the apex of it.

I'd happily move Chytil for him and I'm a big believer in that kid too.

 

[Rangers in 7]

As much as I like Chytil, Dubois is a bona fide #1C that’s only 22 years old, fits our style perfectly, and would be the long-term C option to grow with our young core.

It’ll cost a lot, and I could see CBJ wanting 2 NHL pieces for him plus another pick and prospect. It’s also a much easier decision to sign PLD long-term than it is Zibanejad since you’d be locking him up from 24/25 years old onward throughout the entirety of his prime. Acquiring him now also gives you a two year window to go for it while Zibanejad, Fox, Kakko, and Lafreniere are all on cheap contracts.

i think this is the problem i have, i dont see dubois as a number 1 center right now....i especially dont see him as a bona-fide star 1st liner

 

[Off Sides]

If it were me, I'd want to know what Chytil for example does this year before I were to trade him for PLB.

Could probably go through a whole list of players I would say the same about. I'm not so sure the current list of, do not trade/on the table players remains static or should remain unchanged.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

@Edge with Schneider in the fold do you think the Rangers are more likely to move Lundkvist? (for example in a deal for PLD)

And do you know if the teams thoughts on keeping Tony on the left long term has changed at all?